Even though we voted for it, a Brexit won't happen in the end. Here's why

[mommysboy]

But then on the bright side I have just seen this

http://heatst.com/uk/11-countries-gearing-up-to-strike-trade-deals-with-britain/

See we don't need the EU it's only about one week

Unfortunately (I am not using the word ironically), these trade deals, if they actually materialize, may not be enough to make good for the losses. I am not an expert in economy but my understanding is that the City of London contributes decisively to the GNP. Without a deal with the EU a lot of this trade will be gone. Just a few percent less will hit the British budget hard. And many foreign banks and traders are in London because it gives them access to the whole European market, These banks and traders will have no reason to stay in the UK. Dublin or Paris or Frankfurt will suit them better (Dublin being a good candidate because of this funny little language they speak ).

Don't get me wrong. I do not hope that that will happen but I think there is good chance that it will. That being said, I always wonder why so many people on this forum wish for the EU to collapse. I understand that people feel British and want to remain independent (I do not, I regard myself as being patriotic but nevertheless I would describe myself as a European from Germany like many of my friends and colleagues would describe themselves as Europeans from France or Holland or wherever). So, that I understand but I would not want the UK to collapse or the British people to suffer. Obviously, for some people it is not enough "to win", the others also have to lose. Why is that, I wonder. My hobby-psychological diagnosis: they maybe simply a-holes.

BREXIT AND THE FINANCIAL SECTOR.

This is possibly the most vexing area to understand, as the information out there tends to be heavily opinionated and subject to extreme spin on both sides; now why does that not surprise me. Thus what I write may not be accurate. These things tend to be contagious.

An overview- The City of London is Europe's Financial Centre. And it became that way for a number of reasons that are not easily supplanted. Its modern form took 30 years or more to develop. It can't be replaced, any more than someone can just decide to build a city to rival New York, or make a football team to rival Barcelona. It just doesn't work that way. The EU conducts a heck of a lot of business through London. It would be very disadvantageous if EU became excluded in some way, and likewise UK could not trade with EU. Reciprocal arrangments needed here for sure.

Financial Passporting - This is essential to conduct financial activities in the EU. Without it UK simply can not trade. It is as vital as a passport is to leave and enter another country, and intrinsic to it is 'access', which might be thought of as a visa. If UK were to leave without a free trade deal, then passporting would cease on the day UK leaves the EU. All financial trading with EU would stop. Presumably, both ways. That would be an unmitigated diasaster for both parties.

The face saver- In 2018 the "BIFID2" I think it's called, is due to be enacted. Sorry info was gleaned on radio This allows third party countries to deal directly with the EU providing they have equivalent regulatory bodies. I think it can be safely assumed that UK meets this requirement. Thus although UK without a free access trade deal would lose its 'passport' it would be able to continue to trade with EU. Also, it is possible to circumnavigate the passport by opening a branch in an EU state. But financial institutions could be against this as they prefer to keep operations under one roof. Thus many would no doubt choose to up sticks and locate.

Perspective- As others have pointed out, even a few percent lost is a big, big hit for UK. But it is simply not the case that the City is reliant on EU alone. The City of London conducts an enormous volume of business that is not Euro related across a number of markets. The domestic market is also quite big, and retail banking would be totally unaffected. So when one hears 2.1 million jobs at risk this is simply not true. What is true is that a number of big players would leave the City of London. But why so much anger is being vented is that there is a loss to them as well. What City of London offers is latency - speed and power. Frankfurt and Paris do not rival it, and it would take at least a decade before they did. If a company did relocate it has made a choice it would rather not have made. It has left a premier league tem and gone in to the championship, I did say spin is contagious.

Access- This is a key concept currently being overlooked by the Brexiters. It needs to noted that free trade is not just about avoiding tariffs. Access is arguably more important. Without free access there is the possibility of being mired in the machinations of all sorts of regulatory bodies and approval can take a long time. Used incorrectly, it can completely stymie. There is no substitute for what UK has at the moment. And even if it is circumnavigated there are bound to be consequences.

Recipricocity- In the financial sector this is particularly important and there are dire consequences. I think it can safely be stated there are dire consequences on both sides. The EU is currently very reliant on the City of London. Without access to it, EU is very vulnerable. Like wise it would be a hell of a blow to UK if it could not do Euro trade. It simply isn't true for either party to say otherwise.

Uncertainty. This is if anything is rather more corrosive than anything else. Business hates uncertainty. It is bound to cause damage, and what's more it is an event that is happening now. Businesses plan years in advance. Some have already suspended plans, others may be close to deciding a move. But there are 'red herrings'. The financial sector is very competitive. Some of those that leave, are likely to leave anyway simply throufh business failure.

As I said, this is not as clear cut as general trade. It is very difficult to ascertain facts, and thos e that give them usually have a very definite position. In paraphrasing I am bount to have over simplified, overstated, or understated.

[Naam]

And more good news Boeing has chosen Britain for it's new European headquarters even if we leave the EU

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3497621/Boeing-s-Brexit-boost-World-s-largest-aircraft-maker-picks-Britain-home-new-European-headquarters.html

Come on, what's all the fuss about (speaking as an American)? What, you might have to pay a 3% duty on goods into the continent? Get real and join the rest of the world! UK manufacturing can compete!

A basic economic premise: nations become wealthy by producing wealth. We don't get wealthy by serving hamburgers to each other, we get wealthy by real production of wealth: manufacturing, mining, agriculture, etc.

Banking services (that the UK might loose) do not produce wealth. They do not make the pie bigger, they only decide how the pie is sliced.

UK have confidence that your US brothers are with you in your search in determining your own future. We broke from King George over 200 years ago over similar issues, and we are with you today.

Banking services (that the UK might loose) do not produce wealth. They do not make the pie bigger, they only decide how the pie is sliced.

very little do you know

– Over two million people work in financial and related professional services across the UK, representing 7 percent of the working population, withtwo-thirds operating outside of Greater London.

– Financial and related professional

services accounts for 11.8 percent of GDP.

This was nearly twice their contribution

to employment, indicating that the sector

is highly productive – 70 percent above

the UK average.

– The average economic output per

worker in financial and related

professional services is over £85,000

per year, compared to the £47,000

UK average for other sectors.

– UK financial services contributed

£66 billion in tax revenue in 2013/14,

accounting for 11.5 percent of total

UK receipts, the largest contribution

of any sector.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/409353/UKTI_Fin_Exc_Overview_TAGGED_REV_3.pdf

[Naam]

– UK financial services contributed

£66 billion in tax revenue in 2013/14,

accounting for 11.5 percent of total

UK receipts, the largest contribution

of any sector.

if only 12% of these services (talk among multinationals is 35 to 40%!) are moved to Dublin, Frankfurt or Madrid the loss would be equivalent to UK's net contribution towards the EU.

sorry to be such a pain in the àrse

[mommysboy]

A SOLUTION.

There is a very quick solution to this Brexit issue, that can be effected quickly without compromising so called democracy:

Think Merchant of Venice. I'd rather not I flunked my first exam by not even answering the Shakespeare questions. I never could understand why he didn't write in English.

Shylock wins his pound of flesh. But is unable to extract it because he cannot guarantee not a drop of blood more or less. UK Parliament could simply tell Brexiters that withdrawal will be enacted when they can guarantee to fulfill exactly what they promised: a full access deal without compromise on immigration. If they can't come back without it, and they really can't, then Article 50 can not be enacted.

I can claim to have thought of this by myself but rather think Brussels has got there first.

[mommysboy]

– UK financial services contributed

£66 billion in tax revenue in 2013/14,

accounting for 11.5 percent of total

UK receipts, the largest contribution

of any sector.

if only 12% of these services (talk among multinationals is 35 to 40%!) are moved to Dublin, Frankfurt or Madrid the loss would be equivalent to UK's net contribution towards the EU.

sorry to be such a pain in the àrse

Good posting.

I think your estimate would very likely be more accurate. But it also has to be said that City could expand in other directions to mitigate losses. The problem is that whatever we say beyond the possibility of 10% loss is all conjecture.

[Thaiwine]

Uk at least escaped this horror:

Britain dodges European Union superstate bullet

And they do not need to be involved in industry like this:

First-Person Testimonial from a Former Refugee Volunteer

I think this super state dream makes war more likly on a massive scale, as big states flex muscles saying don't mess with me I'm one of the big boys.

[SgtRock]

Obama has spoken

Mr Obama said the priority for Britain and Europe should be to work on a clear plan to reassure nervous populations and businesses that deal with the EU.

He said: "My main message to David Cameron, Angela Merkel and others is everybody should catch their breath, come up with a plan and a process that is orderly, that's transparent, that people understand.

http://news.sky.com/story/1719505/obama-tells-eu-leaders-to-catch-their-breath

How the rhetoric has changed.

[mommysboy]

I must say even writing a short summary is most vexing, and leaves one with a marked distaste for the financial sector- what a bunch!

Comedy duo Smith and Jones created the character 'The Incredible Bullshxxxing Man'. I think after the show finished, he must have gone to work as an advisor in the City.

[SgtRock]

Naam

In your humble, but learned experience.

What do you think is going to happen in the eurozone when this current 18 month, 60 billion a month QE program runs out in September ?

ECB launches 1 trillion euro rescue plan to revive euro economy

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-idUSKBN0KU2ST20150122

Edited June 30, 2016 by SgtRock

[manfredtillmann]

In my years here I rarely post.

I'm an American so it can be debated if I have a horse in this race.

Maybe the Brits have just voted themselves into recession. That's to be seen, but I wonder if anyone here understands the EU concept of Qualified Majority Voting? If so, maybe you can explain it ti the masses.

For sure the Brits have just shot themselves in the foot in near term economic terms, but maybe that was better than shooting themselves in the head in terms of the long term solution.

In my mind there is not a simple answer to this complex question. For sure the Brits economically would be better off (now) staying in the union, but at what long term cost? The loss of sovereignty over their own country?

Again, speaking as an American, I would pay the price to throw off the yoke of debilitating regulation so that my progeny might live free of it.

My support to David Cameron. He is a leader the west needs more of.

We regularly get recessions, in fact many people haven't come out of the last one. It is time to think long term and the Soviet styled EU was certainly not the future for 'ol Blighty.

Who we need now is the love child of Ludwig Erhard and Sir John Cowperthwaite to sort it out.

To me an understanding of the EU concept of Qualified Majority Voting is where the EU really went off the rails.

If that doesn't do it for you google the EU positions on Common and Foreign Security Policy and Justice and Home Affairs.

The EU is a grand experiment in Europe that we all hope will succeed, but in it's current incarnation t's a train wreck waiting to happen.

This is the main reason (actually the only reason) I voted leave . . .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2-cQ8TfU4A

Stuffy old goats, but the message isn't wrong.

Thanks for the link.

The presentation of the video isn't the best - looks like something from the 1970's even though it is actually less than 10 years old - but the information is bang on and that is what counts.

Anyone who thinks the Leave vote was about xenophobia should watch this video. We voted to leave in order to regain the rights and freedoms we fought for centuries to win.

Ha ha...you mean the rights and freedoms your colonial ambitions denied the South Asians and the Africans whose resources you pillaged to become the wealthy nation you are ? Another revisionist in our midst. Perhaps now without the yoke of EU 'oppression' you can resume pillaging some poor souls somewhere in the world.

What? Wow, you really have a chip on your shoulder.

A revisionist? Must I preface each post with an apology for the crimes my country has done against others? The UK has oppressed people and done terrible things, AS HAS EVERY SINGLE NATION ON EARTH! Thankfully, the world has moved on since the colonial age and we are much more enlightened.

So, no, I shall not beat myself with a whip as do not have any guilt for something I had no part in. You can flagellate yourself for whatever crimes your country has done if you like, but I shall pass.

your statement 'AS HAS EVERY SINGLE NATION ON EARTH!' can't be right as there can not be oppressor nations without some other nations being the oppressed. or are you talking about the oppressions imposed on the nations own citizens?

[nontabury]

My understanding is that a lot of people voted to leave based on xenophobia and racism. So the day after their "victory" they realized the Poles and the Muslims, etc. aren't going anywhere. Oops!

You obviously based your assessment on you being British and living in the UK, is that correct?

[nontabury]

My understanding is that a lot of people voted to leave based on xenophobia and racism. So the day after their "victory" they realized the Poles and the Muslims, etc. aren't going anywhere. Oops!

some folk talk utter rubbish since when has wanting to take back control of your country and maintain a good relationship with Europe been racist and xenophobic?

How unfortunate that Jingling ( an American) cannot go back in time and consult George Washigton, British/American,actually from the English gentry,as were the other signatures of the American constitution, what he thought of democracy. Or would he simply write him off as being xenophobic.

[nausea]

My gut feeling is a 10 per cent hit. This was really about sovereignty, not immigration or the NHS, but who cares about sovereignty apart from a few intellectuals and academics. The ordinary people, the "man on the Clapham omnibus", is going to feel pretty peed off when this hits his pocket.

[nontabury]

My understanding is that a lot of people voted to leave based on xenophobia and racism. So the day after their "victory" they realized the Poles and the Muslims, etc. aren't going anywhere. Oops!

I saw TV programs interviewing people in Britain over the weekend. All those who voted to remain had solid logical reasons for doing so. Those who voted to leave were a mixture - old people who yearned for past days which seemed so 'perfect" - memory plays so many tricks on us all; and younger people who blames immigrants for everything and thought leaving meant immigration would cease and lots of people would go home - they were lied to over and over again or harped on about sovereignty and change - neither of which they could elaborate on.

The extreme right, racists and those who have been stirring up those emotions for some time have seized their opportunity.

A considerable number of people who voted to leave appear to have had no idea of the consequences or understanding of what they were actually voting for.

Another arrogant post. And all because the majority of the electorate did not agree with you. And you wonder why.

Edited June 30, 2016 by nontabury

[mommysboy]

My gut feeling is a 10 per cent hit. This was really about sovereignty, not immigration or the NHS, but who cares about sovereignty apart from a few intellectuals and academics. The ordinary people, the "man on the Clapham omnibus", is going to feel pretty peed off when this hits his pocket.

I like the fact that you have kept to reasonable estimates.

But everything said about the financial sector is sheer conjecture.

It's not even sure UK will lose anything at all!

[mommysboy]

Quite honestly as regards this referendum I would be prepared to sacrifice democracy in this instance.

The result is a dud.

It's a lemon.

The darned cake came out the oven an nobody wants to eat it. Not even the cook will take a bite. Best binned

[nontabury]

What the Brexit vote showed was that The UK also has about the same of equally per portioned stupid voters as The US does,who vote as they are told or as their family voted or for a number of reasons ,while having absolutely no knowledge of the eventual out come of their vote.When the results of their stupidity happens they then cry foul and blame it on factors other then their own ignorance..

Are you British? I ask this question as you do not seem to understand what has actually happened in many parts of the U.K. I'm referring to the fact that most Labour supporters,who have always voted the same as their parents,have now changed track and have actually gone against the recommendations of the Labour Party and of most Labour M.P's. For once in their lives they have educated themselves regarding the consequences of remaining in the EU, unfortunately this has resulted in the class issue being brought to the for-front. Well the remainders will just have to accept. It's called democracy.

[nontabury]

Money folk care about money, folk on the street care about what is happening on their street...

As for Branson, look at his early history....

But whether it's Branson or anyone else in a similar position, he/they are the people who create jobs so that the people on the street have work, income, careers. Poorer people especially don't like wealth creators because they are usually very wealthy, but what they forget is that without them they wouldn't have work or income.

I've read his bio.

By the way, I see the Chinese are now buying up London because the value of the Pound has fallen, London already has very few native Brits in residence any more as a result of foreign property ownership, are you OK that the trend continues and even more property goes to foreigners because that's what's happening on a lot of streets and Brexit made that problem a whole lot worse.

So, what's wrong with the Chinese buying up London? Don't tell me you're a xenophone / rascist?

China is not part of the EU. How did they manage to get access to the single market to buy properties within the EU? Hmm.......

And if the Chinese smell a deal (ie buying up properties now), what does that tell you about their longer term sentiments about the property market in the UK?

"So, what's wrong with the Chinese buying up London? ".

Personally I have nothing against the Chinese, my wife is a Chinese/Thai hiso and I think they're great people.

But a gentlemen poster was complaining earlier about what's happening on the street in the UK, in London those streets used to house Brits, then Europeans, then various nationalities in different areas, then Russians and now Chinese. Friends tell me, and this confirmed by the media, that the price of property in London is now such that many wealthy foreigners can't afford to live there, many are now scouting and buying into the larger more desirable cities of the UK. As for the native Brits, well, they've been forced to rent in an increasing number of cases, especially the young as they are priced out of the market.

It seems to me that whilst we're making the UK attractive to foreign purchasers of everything in the country, especially the housing stock (not sold to wealth creators) , we don't care about the availability and affordability of housing for our own citizens. So it seems distinctly odd, if not totally bizarre, to complain about how the high cost of Eu membership and the negative effects of UK immigration whilst at the same time we're selling the country in parts to any foreigner who wants to buy it, a process that was just accelerated by the Brexit vote.

Thypical Chang Mai post. My wife is Thai/Chinese "hi so" . Is it relevant to this discussion that YOU think she is, I repeat "HI -SO" what snobbishness, but what can we expect from a mill owners son.

[KarenBravo]

For once in their lives they have educated themselves regarding the consequences of remaining in the EU.

You're absolutely right!

Pity they didn't also educate themselves on the consequences of leaving the EU...

[mercman24]

well i have got to find another £ 600, that's how much it has cost me, (for the 800,000 baht)

[HappyDazed]

My understanding is that a lot of people voted to leave based on xenophobia and racism. So the day after their "victory" they realized the Poles and the Muslims, etc. aren't going anywhere. Oops!

You obviously based your assessment on you being British and living in the UK, is that correct?

Doesn't matter where he lives ..he's right on the money in this instance!

And, your post isn't in the least bit Xenophobic so he didn't touch a nerve in the slightest!!!!

Edited June 30, 2016 by HappyDazed

[Franky Bear]

Do you guys not understand that this represents opinion, asking for numbers or clarification of what is, "a lot" is banal, what is your problem!

I guess my problem is enjoying reading credible facts and figures. Or have i got this wrong? Help me out.

[MissAndry]

My understanding is that a lot of people voted to leave based on xenophobia and racism. So the day after their "victory" they realized the Poles and the Muslims, etc. aren't going anywhere. Oops!

You obviously based your assessment on you being British and living in the UK, is that correct?

Doesn't matter where he lives ..he's right on the money in this instance!

And, your post isn't in the least bit Xenophobic so he didn't touch a nerve in the slightest!!!!

Xenophobia - fear of anything foreign.

No I don't fear them, I just don't want them hanging around in my country for more than a couple of weeks holiday each year.

Racism - prejudice, discrimination, or antagonism directed against someone of a different race based on the belief that one's own race is superior.

Don't care what race they are, as long as they have a British passport. As far as I can tell most of the Polish, Romanian, Hungarians and Greeks are Caucasian, same as me, I still want them out. Plenty of British people of Indian, Pakistani, West Indian and Chinese extraction, they have British passports and regional British accents, I have no problem with them, they're one of us.

Not that I voted. But if I had it would have been to leave, now as JT lives in Pattaya, how could he form any opinion on what British voters did, unless his opinion was based entirely on xenophobia and racism? Here is a question for you JT, how many British voters did you speak with before forming your "understanding"? Am I right in thinking NONE?

Edited June 30, 2016 by MissAndry

[HappyDazed]

My understanding is that a lot of people voted to leave based on xenophobia and racism. So the day after their "victory" they realized the Poles and the Muslims, etc. aren't going anywhere. Oops!

You obviously based your assessment on you being British and living in the UK, is that correct?

Doesn't matter where he lives ..he's right on the money in this instance!

And, your post isn't in the least bit Xenophobic so he didn't touch a nerve in the slightest!!!!

now as JT lives in Pattaya, how could he form any opinion on what British voters did

You will need to ask JT how he is able to understand British voters so well...

My guess, he has a healthy curiosity of other cultures and is able to conduct objective analysis of their political systems..

Edited June 30, 2016 by HappyDazed

[MissAndry]

My guess, he has a healthy curiosity of other cultures and is able to conduct objective analysis of their political systems..

Hasn't he proclaimed he has no interest in Thai culture?

Wouldn't that indicate the opposite to your theory?

Here we go, around 3 weeks ago,

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/921327-is-it-wrong-to-live-in-pattaya-and-not-be-interested-in-thai-culture/

"What I'm talking about is that in this globalized world, you can live in international type cities/resorts like Pattaya and basically (mostly) IGNORE the local culture. If you choose."

Edited June 30, 2016 by MissAndry

[HappyDazed]

My guess, he has a healthy curiosity of other cultures and is able to conduct objective analysis of their political systems..

Hasn't he proclaimed he has no interest in Thai culture?

Wouldn't that indicate the opposite to your theory?

Here we go, around 3 weeks ago,

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/921327-is-it-wrong-to-live-in-pattaya-and-not-be-interested-in-thai-culture/

I'm no expert on all things Jingting

Which is why my comment contained a clause ..you might have missed it!

....he's right on the money in this instance!

However, you might be going off topic with posts from 3 weeks ago?

Edited June 30, 2016 by HappyDazed

[chiang mai]

Do you guys not understand that this represents opinion, asking for numbers or clarification of what is, "a lot" is banal, what is your problem!

I guess my problem is enjoying reading credible facts and figures. Or have i got this wrong? Help me out.

"Help me out". - Back the way you came in.

[chiang mai]

"So, what's wrong with the Chinese buying up London? ".

Personally I have nothing against the Chinese, my wife is a Chinese/Thai hiso and I think they're great people.

But a gentlemen poster was complaining earlier about what's happening on the street in the UK, in London those streets used to house Brits, then Europeans, then various nationalities in different areas, then Russians and now Chinese. Friends tell me, and this confirmed by the media, that the price of property in London is now such that many wealthy foreigners can't afford to live there, many are now scouting and buying into the larger more desirable cities of the UK. As for the native Brits, well, they've been forced to rent in an increasing number of cases, especially the young as they are priced out of the market.

It seems to me that whilst we're making the UK attractive to foreign purchasers of everything in the country, especially the housing stock (not sold to wealth creators) , we don't care about the availability and affordability of housing for our own citizens. So it seems distinctly odd, if not totally bizarre, to complain about how the high cost of Eu membership and the negative effects of UK immigration whilst at the same time we're selling the country in parts to any foreigner who wants to buy it, a process that was just accelerated by the Brexit vote.

Thypical Chang Mai post. My wife is Thai/Chinese "hi so" . Is it relevant to this discussion that YOU think she is, I repeat "HI -SO" what snobbishness, but what can we expect from a mill owners son.

So you don't do satire NB, I was going to put a silly little smiley after that phrase and and add that I was special forces then I thought no, even the most imbecilic of posters who've been on TVF for any period of time will recognise that as oft repeated Thai Visa humour subject matter, seemingly not. Ah well, never mind.

And it's odd for an Englishman not to get that type of humour, are you absolutely certain you're a Brit. NB and not something else?

Anyway, 'ave to get back t' mill t'see t'lads, a'fore you know it they'll all be on their uppers and wanting a raise, bloody peasants, who do they think they are eh!

[Naam]

Naam

In your humble, but learned experience.

What do you think is going to happen in the eurozone when this current 18 month, 60 billion a month QE program runs out in September ?

ECB launches 1 trillion euro rescue plan to revive euro economy

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-idUSKBN0KU2ST20150122

i don't know what will happen and can only assume or guess that nothing much is going to happen. personally i wish that something negative happens because the ignorant, lazy and good-for-nothing morons in Brussels need more than one kick (such as Brexit) in their àrses to make them sit up.

but we all have wet dreams and that includes my [not so] humble self even though, being a cosmopolitan, it should not concern me.

[MissAndry]

However, you might be going off topic with posts from 3 weeks ago?

Of course, very few people keep the same opinions, in the same month.

He probably became fully integrated with Thai culture in the past couple of weeks, became a Buddhist, and married a nice Thai lady.