BRIT (pensioners) and EXCHANGE RATES

[mercman24]

hi brits just wondering how you were all doing, me personally, lost £90 in two weeks when i transferred the sum of £2000 twice, and in two years from 2014 to 2016, i am nearly £40 a week worse off. costing it out i can live the same lifestyle for the next five years. then its back to street food he he, let me know how your thoughts, its only going to get worse i think.

[Kwasaki]

My UK state pension is paid in directly to my Thai bank,   my home expenses are very low so l just draw what l need for the month, leave the rest for whatever.

The exchange rate l really can't do anything about so l try not to look at it.  

[theoldgit]

I do know a couple of people who were already struggling and have now reached the tipping point, one has returned to the UK as he wasn't able to reach the financial requirement to stay here, whilst another is going next week, he's leaving his wife behind as he doesn't meet the UK Settlement Visa requirements to allow her to accompany her.

Most of us have been hit pretty hard one way or the other, some are struggling, some not so, but a drop in the value of the GBP of the extent we are seeing will have an inevitable effect on us all, and will no doubt lead to some serious belt tightening, the thing I'm sure of is that there's far worse to come.
Some will say of those that are suffering that it's their own fault, but I prefer to take a more compassionate view.
One thing I will say is we have to take it on the chin, or we will be called bemoaners.

[YeahSiam]

The OP's attitude is admirable.

However, others on this forum in a similar boat are another thing altogether.

There are a few threads on this subject doing the rounds and many have taken to howling about what they believe is deliberate manipulation of the THB's value by everyone from the central bank and the junta to a secretive cabal of Thai-Chinese billionaires and banks keen to spirit their money away in foreign lands in case it all "kicks off" in light of recent events.

 

From what I've read, it seems to be the very ones who welcomed Brexit who are doing the majority of the conspiracy mongering.

They're also the ones who've ratcheted up their negativity towards Thailand and Thais, a fact which partially confirms a pet theory that much of the "happiness" many foreigners claim to enjoy in Thailand is based on nothing more than a silly sense of financial superiority they have over the majority of the locals.

In essence, in the past, they felt relatively wealthy and they liked it.

Now, certainly in the case of the Brits, that's evaporating and they don't like it.

 

 

Edited October 25, 2016 by YeahSiam

[evadgib]

16 minutes ago, YeahSiam said:

The OP's attitude is admirable.

However, others on this forum in a similar boat are another thing altogether.

There are a few threads on this subject doing the rounds and many have taken to howling about what they believe is deliberate manipulation of the THB's value by everyone from the central bank and the junta to a secretive cabal of Thai-Chinese billionaires and banks keen to spirit their money away in foreign lands in case it all "kicks off" in light of recent events.

 

From what I've read, it seems to be the very ones who welcomed Brexit who are doing the majority of the conspiracy mongering.

They're also the ones who've ratcheted up their negativity towards Thailand and Thais, a fact which partially confirms a pet theory that much of the "happiness" many Brits claim to enjoy in Thailand is based on nothing more than a silly sense of financial superiority they have over the majority of the locals.

In essence, in the past, they felt relatively wealthy and they liked it.

Now that's evaporating, they don't like it.

 

 

 

Edited October 25, 2016 by evadgib

[robertthebruce]

40 minutes ago, theoldgit said:

I do know a couple of people who were already struggling and have now reached the tipping point, one has returned to the UK as he wasn't able to reach the financial requirement to stay here, whilst another is going next week, he's leaving his wife behind as he doesn't meet the UK Settlement Visa requirements to allow her to accompany her.

Most of us have been hit pretty hard one way or the other, some are struggling, some not so, but a drop in the value of the GBP of the extent we are seeing will have an inevitable effect on us all, and will no doubt lead to some serious belt tightening, the thing I'm sure of is that there's far worse to come.
Some will say of those that are suffering that it's their own fault, but I prefer to take a more compassionate view.
One thing I will say is we have to take it on the chin, or we will be called bemoaners.

 

 

Sad to read the part where you said, your Friend retuned to the UK, as he did not meet the financial requirements here in Thailand, and cannot take his Wife to the UK as he cannot meet the financial requirements there..

The annoying fact is they are all trying to get over from Calais to the UK, and last week, there was a load got to the UK.. , yes it's dad for their Plight...but....

 

an injustice for your friend for sure...hopefully his finances pick up and he can either return to Thailand or get his Wife over to the UK...

 

all the best

 

[poohy]

Not exactly  an old age pension but my yearly one off payment from investments arrived 2 weeks after Brexit and nearly 1500GBP lighter than it should have been,thanks to drop in rates

 

Very Painful and this "May" woman is helping none but her own cronies  believe me expats are not on anyone's horizon

 

result, belts are indeed tightening 

[partington]

Poor people tend to vote to increase their own poverty: I don't know why this is.

 

 I would be surprised if the majority, 80-90%, of those being forced to leave because of the low exchange rate didn't actually vote for Brexit and bring about their own demise.

 

Those not on the edge of survival mostly voted remain I think.  

[Suradit69]

38 minutes ago, YeahSiam said:

The OP's attitude is admirable.

However, others on this forum in a similar boat are another thing altogether.

There are a few threads on this subject doing the rounds and many have taken to howling about what they believe is deliberate manipulation of the THB's value by everyone from the central bank and the junta to a secretive cabal of Thai-Chinese billionaires and banks keen to spirit their money away in foreign lands in case it all "kicks off" in light of recent events.

 

From what I've read, it seems to be the very ones who welcomed Brexit who are doing the majority of the conspiracy mongering.

They're also the ones who've ratcheted up their negativity towards Thailand and Thais, a fact which partially confirms a pet theory that much of the "happiness" many foreigners claim to enjoy in Thailand is based on nothing more than a silly sense of financial superiority they have over the majority of the locals.

In essence, in the past, they felt relatively wealthy and they liked it.

Now, certainly in the case of the Brits, that's evaporating and they don't like it.

 

 

"they believe is deliberate manipulation of the THB's value"

 

And nothing to with the pound sinking against every other currency??

 

"From what I've read, it seems to be the very ones who welcomed Brexit who are doing the majority of the conspiracy mongering."

 

So many farang refuse to accept the consequences of what they've done or  wished for.

Something similar could happen to those in/from the US who want to vote for Trump in order to punish the political establishment. 

 

Unintended (or unimagined) consequences can really bite you in the derriere ... so make sure you have some conspiracy theories ready to deflect the blame. 

[RichardColeman]

15 minutes ago, partington said:

Poor people tend to vote to increase their own poverty: I don't know why this is.

 

 I would be surprised if the majority, 80-90%, of those being forced to leave because of the low exchange rate didn't actually vote for Brexit and bring about their own demise.

 

Those not on the edge of survival mostly voted remain I think.  

 

15 minutes ago, partington said:

Poor people tend to vote to increase their own poverty: I don't know why this is.

 

 I would be surprised if the majority, 80-90%, of those being forced to leave because of the low exchange rate didn't actually vote for Brexit and bring about their own demise.

 

Those not on the edge of survival mostly voted remain I think.  

 

I Don't remember it being explained by anyone that you would lose as much as 20% of your income for expats. 

[partington]

2 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

 

 

I Don't remember it being explained by anyone that you would lose as much as 20% of your income for expats. 

 

 

George Soros is a respected financier.  Here's what he wrote in the Guardian on Jun 20th before the vote. He wasn't the only one!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/20/brexit-crash-pound-living-standards-george-soros

 

"The Brexit crash will make all of you poorer – be warned

George Soros

David Cameron, along with the Treasury, the Bank of England, the International Monetary Fund and others have been attacked by the leave campaign for exaggerating the economic risks of Brexit. This criticism has been widely accepted by the British media and many financial analysts. As a result, British voters are now grossly underestimating the true costs of leaving.

[ ... ]To start off, sterling is almost certain to fall steeply and quickly if there is a vote to leave– even more so after yesterday’s rebound as markets reacted to the shift in opinion polls towards remain. I would expect this devaluation to be bigger and more disruptive than the 15% devaluation that occurred in September 1992,[...]

Brexiters seem to recognise that a sharp devaluation would be almost inevitable after Brexit, but argue that this would be healthy, despite the big losses of purchasing power for British households."

[YeahSiam]

5 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

 

 

I Don't remember it being explained by anyone that you would lose as much as 20% of your income for expats. 

 

It was obvious to anyone with even a smattering of brain cells what would happen to the exchange rate.

 

[Beechboy]

Surely the pound would have dipped even without Brexit?

 

It was widely  held that it was over-valued in the first place. It has held stronger against the dollar than the euro in the last two years. Interest rates were hiked in America and another rise is in the pipeline apparently.

 

I think that a drop of 5-10% would have happened in any case. Speculators and the Policy of the UK Central Bank, lowering rates and 'printing' money encouraged a greater fall.

 

The impending stagnation of the UK economy (whether temporary or medium term) and the uncertainty over the terms of the Brexit  agreement, along with general negativity have encouraged further losses.

 

The currency markets are very touchy at the moment but Sterling seems on a downward trend that gets alarming.

 

Many in the government are now critical of the Bank of England's so-called negative response to Brexit. Carney and Co. won't budge and even talk of a further drop in rates.

 

The next few months will be interesting. The fall of the pound will likely soon bottom out as the UK economy  is  basically strong with the country remaining the fifth largest economy in the world. Whether or not it stages a gradual recovery is the operative issue. 

 

 

[chiang mai]

3 minutes ago, Beechboy said:

Surely the pound would have dipped even without Brexit?

 

It was widely  held that it was over-valued in the first place. It has held stronger against the dollar than the euro in the last two years. Interest rates were hiked in America and another rise is in the pipeline apparently.

 

I think that a drop of 5-10% would have happened in any case. Speculators and the Policy of the UK Central Bank, lowering rates and 'printing' money encouraged a greater fall.

 

The impending stagnation of the UK economy (whether temporary or medium term) and the uncertainty over the terms of the Brexit  agreement, along with general negativity have encouraged further losses.

 

The currency markets are very touchy at the moment but Sterling seems on a downward trend that gets alarming.

 

Many in the government are now critical of the Bank of England's so-called negative response to Brexit. Carney and Co. won't budge and even talk of a further drop in rates.

 

The next few months will be interesting. The fall of the pound will likely soon bottom out as the UK economy  is  basically strong with the country remaining the fifth largest economy in the world. Whether or not it stages a gradual recovery is the operative issue. 

 

 

 

Indeed Sterling was over valued even without Brexit, the difference being that the fall would have been more gradual and over a longer period than the slam dunk that we're seeing currently. FWIW I'm planning on 35/38 as the bottom.

Edited October 25, 2016 by chiang mai

[flyingdoc]

By my simple calculations, I make the fall of the £ far greater than quoted!  Less than a year ago, it touched 55 baht to the £, and as of yesterday at Suvarnabhumi, a shade over 40 was being quoted ! 

[ChrisKC]

My modest British private and Government pensions have been affected to the tune of about B5000 per month in the last four months (mainly Brexit I think). Fortunately, it has little bearing on my ability to continue living here

[sandyf]

2 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

My UK state pension is paid in directly to my Thai bank,   my home expenses are very low so l just draw what l need for the month, leave the rest for whatever.

The exchange rate l really can't do anything about so l try not to look at it.  

I was a bit the same but just had my UK state pension transferred to my UK bank account, usually go over for a few weeks each year.

My home expenses are also fairly low, no dependent children and no vehicle. Really glad now that when I got married in 2008 took the plunge and built rather than rent a home.

[nauseus]

I know that many people from the UK decided to retire here when the pound was strong against the baht.

 

But look back at the long-term exchange rates before complaining! Try 33 baht to the pound (mid 80's)!

 

The Brexit vote has had about a (-20%) effect on the value of the pound, so far. It may dip another 20% before the exit terms are clear.

 

But much further down the road I expect the pound to be strong again versus the USD & THB. Not sure if there will be a Euro by that time.

 

But you will need to hang on and wait for it!

Edited October 25, 2016 by nauseus

[Thaimike370]

Once that Cameron stand in May invokes article 40 this will get much much better.  Just a matter of hanging on.  Vote UKIP, the peoples party.

 

[Thaidream]

The Pound went down because the World markets were surprised that Brexit passed and now there is uncertainty in the market place which is what is weighing on the Pound. As mentioned, the UK economy is sound and the 5th largest in the World. In the long term, I believe Sterling will recover nicely and the Euro will be under siege as there are many EU countries that are insolvent and being propped up by the EU.  The Uk was smart never to adopt the  Euro and each year that goes by that decision will look better and better.

As an American- I take no joy in anyone suffering because of currency issues. This can happen in the US quite easily .and has happened before. I actually remember when the Dollar was 20 Baht and the Pound was 3.40 to the Dollar.

 If Trump would (God forbid!) become President- the dollar will drop 20-30% and we will be singing the blues as well as a Worldwide drop in all stock markets.

Hang in there- it will come back..

 

[zappalot]

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

 

 

I Don't remember it being explained by anyone that you would lose as much as 20% of your income for expats. 

 

Everyone who was interested in the matter knew. The exchange rate ahead of the vote correlated DIRECTLY with the polls ahead of the vote, and this for many weeks.

So where have you been the months before the vote?

 

[Henryford]

1 hour ago, Thaimike370 said:

Once that Cameron stand in May invokes article 40 this will get much much better.  Just a matter of hanging on.  Vote UKIP, the peoples party.

 

 

 

What's Article 40, is that the one where we stay in the EUSSR. Sharia May is a Remoaner.

[joecoolfrog]

33 minutes ago, Henryford said:

 

 

What's Article 40, is that the one where we stay in the EUSSR. Sharia May is a Remoaner.

I rarely see such a well thought out , articulate and informative post, congratulations !

[nauseus]

5 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

I rarely see such a well thought out , articulate and informative post, congratulations !

 

40 minutes ago, Henryford said:

 

 

What's Article 40, is that the one where we stay in the EUSSR. Sharia May is a Remoaner.

 

It's Article 50 and I don't think that Theresa May is a remainer at heart! 

[YeahSiam]

1 hour ago, Thaidream said:

As mentioned, the UK economy is sound and the 5th largest in the World.

 

You've been drinking too much of the Kool-aid

The UK economy is far, FAR from "sound".

Like every other major Western economy with, perhaps, the exception of Germany, Britain is awash with debt; household and public sector.

Manufacturing accounts for less than 12% of GDP and, more worryingly, its service economy is over-dependent on a City of London that's shown itself to be particularly vulnerable to financial shocks.

Much of the country's wealth is directly linked to real estate market lunacy and, despite the Bank of England's efforts to keep the plates spinning, Armageddon is inevitable.

[DipStick]

3 hours ago, Beechboy said:

Surely the pound would have dipped even without Brexit?

 

It was widely  held that it was over-valued in the first place. It has held stronger against the dollar than the euro in the last two years. Interest rates were hiked in America and another rise is in the pipeline apparently.

 

I think that a drop of 5-10% would have happened in any case. Speculators and the Policy of the UK Central Bank, lowering rates and 'printing' money encouraged a greater fall.

 

The impending stagnation of the UK economy (whether temporary or medium term) and the uncertainty over the terms of the Brexit  agreement, along with general negativity have encouraged further losses.

 

The currency markets are very touchy at the moment but Sterling seems on a downward trend that gets alarming.

 

Many in the government are now critical of the Bank of England's so-called negative response to Brexit. Carney and Co. won't budge and even talk of a further drop in rates.

 

The next few months will be interesting. The fall of the pound will likely soon bottom out as the UK economy  is  basically strong with the country remaining the fifth largest economy in the world. Whether or not it stages a gradual recovery is the operative issue. 

 

 

So if anyone has got excess foreign currency funds, is this the time to buy Sterling ?

[YeahSiam]

1 minute ago, DipStick said:

So if anyone has got excess foreign currency funds, is this the time to buy Sterling ?

 

No

It's the time to buy gold.

It's up nearly 40% this year alone in sterling terms.

[DipStick]

Just now, YeahSiam said:

 

No

It's the time to buy gold.

It's up nearly 40% this year alone in sterling terms.

Thanks but I can't buy a pint in the uk with gold, so maybe I should have said, is this the time to buy sterling for use on uk visits.

[chiang mai]

8 minutes ago, YeahSiam said:

 

You've been drinking too much of the Kool-aid

The UK economy is far, FAR from "sound".

Like every other major Western economy with, perhaps, the exception of Germany, Britain is awash with debt; household and public sector.

Manufacturing accounts for less than 12% of GDP and, more worryingly, its service economy is over-dependent on a City of London that's shown itself to be particularly vulnerable to financial shocks.

Much of the country's wealth is directly linked to real estate market lunacy and, despite the Bank of England's efforts to keep the plates spinning, Armageddon is inevitable.

 

AND, the deficit is increasing and debt levels are at record highs, both public and consumer debt.

[zappalot]

2 minutes ago, YeahSiam said:

 

No

It's the time to buy gold.

It's up nearly 40% this year alone in sterling terms.

 

It is up in "sterling terms" just ONLY because the sterling lost a lot of value. So it will only gain value in sterling if the currency is continuing seeing lower grounds.