It's official - Thai real estate bubble pops.

[Destiny1990]

38 minutes ago, trogers said:

The oldest high-rise hotels built in the 70s are Dusit and Indra. Similarly, the oldest office building is the UOB HQ.

 

And the oldest condo building completed near end 70s is Premier Condominium, where I have 2 units.

 

The structures would still be standing for another 5 decades, and they would be demolished only because of the very high increases in land values and building density that rezoning allowed. Not because their structures are failing.

So the condo owners would be bought out?

[trogers]

7 minutes ago, Destiny1990 said:

So the condo owners would be bought out?

Probably, but not within the next two decades. Rental yields are still 6-7% for refurbished units. And parents are passing the units to their adult children, who then refurbished and rent the units out. Popular with the Japanese.

[funandsuninbangkok]

3 hours ago, cheeryble said:

 

I used to sit behind four screens a long time ago and hated it, prefer the quiet life.

Thanks for the figures.

I think as an expert you should be careful to warn newbies about REITs.

Even after all these years a couple of things come to mind.

They are leveraged which makes them much more volatile.

They need to be monitored scrupulously.

The money you (if you do) earn is subject to inflation whereas property generally follows inflation plus a bit on top.

How much drawdown can a sane person stand? The examples I gave.....which I think mirrored the sector in general....... plummeted so drastically after 2013 when interest rates threatened to rise again it would be a bloodbath.......or accept your losses and fret and guess when to re-enter......and probably get it wrong.

Rather clean a toilet (luckily I don't have to)

12% annual return over the last 20 years and you are still trying to sell owning Thai Property?

 

I never understand guys like you. 

 

Hundreds of stories of corrupt condo boards, falling values, horrible neighbors, airbnb tourists parties, bad maintenance, no renters, can't sell when you need the money, coup de'etat bullets and drunken losers jumping to thier deaths from balconies. Don't even get me started on transaction costs , maintenance fees, repairs, rip offs and taxes. 

 

Only guys who do OK buy low(hard to find in Asia where property and gold are "special") self-remodel, cheat on taxes and are ready to toss out tenets at the first late payment, even those with little kids. Baaa Humbug!

 

To each his own. You enjoy, but for me, I buy and sell bland REITs in a nanosecond for 5$ a trade from my Hong Kong account and sleep well. And I never stare at a screen(except for occasional porn moment). 

[ExpatOilWorker]

2 hours ago, trogers said:

The oldest high-rise hotels built in the 70s are Dusit and Indra. Similarly, the oldest office building is the UOB HQ.

 

And the oldest condo building completed near end 70s is Premier Condominium, where I have 2 units.

 

The structures would still be standing for another 5 decades, and they would be demolished only because of the very high increases in land values and building density that rezoning allowed. Not because their structures are failing.

Dusit will soon be demolished and the world would be a prettier place if Indra hotel face the same fate.

 

Premier Condominium was completed in 1981 and is doing well for a tall low rise at 12 floors.

 

Is the UOB Robot Building really among the oldest office buildings? I would imagine that there are many older buildings.

[trogers]

45 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Dusit will soon be demolished and the world would be a prettier place if Indra hotel face the same fate.

 

Premier Condominium was completed in 1981 and is doing well for a tall low rise at 12 floors.

 

Is the UOB Robot Building really among the oldest office buildings? I would imagine that there are many older buildings.

UOB HQ on Sukhumvit Road between Soi Sukhumvit 24 and 26.

[funandsuninbangkok]

POP!!!!

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-03/dean-deluca-owner-shows-how-trouble-s-brewing-for-thai-banks

 

 

[funandsuninbangkok]

Oh my!

 

bangkok post -  PACE development delays financial results. Stock suspended. 

 

Gee wiz. Guess high end property set to get a lot lower. 

[trogers]

7 hours ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Oh my!

 

bangkok post -  PACE development delays financial results. Stock suspended. 

 

Gee wiz. Guess high end property set to get a lot lower. 

Not surprised. That weird looking building in Sathorn sold only a third of their units, and perhaps only a fourth by total sales area.

[ExpatOilWorker]

9 hours ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Oh my!

 

bangkok post -  PACE development delays financial results. Stock suspended. 

 

Gee wiz. Guess high end property set to get a lot lower. 

Interesting, now we just have to get some popcorn and sit back and see if it is a red herring or a black swan event. Time will tell.

[smutcakes]

10 hours ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Oh my!

 

bangkok post -  PACE development delays financial results. Stock suspended. 

 

Gee wiz. Guess high end property set to get a lot lower. 

This was nearly a month ago.

[funandsuninbangkok]

Sound familiar?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-12/dubai-property-to-fall-further-as-vacancies-climb-phidar-says

[ya5702]

If you are depending on rental yield (from AirBnB) to buy real estate, then you cannot afford to invest in real estate. Stay away.

[ExpatOilWorker]

20 hours ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Sound familiar?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-12/dubai-property-to-fall-further-as-vacancies-climb-phidar-says

It is refreshing honest words from somebody that actually represent the real-estate sector. Here most real-estate articles are disguised advertisement at best. In the Post today there is an article about Dubai and they say that real-estate prices are now 30% below the 2008 value. If that happens here, there could be some real nice deals to be found.

 

This could be true for Bangkok/Pattaya also: " The current vacancy rate stands at around 35 percent in preferred communities sampled while builders continue to add to the city’s supply, Downs said."

 

 

[Senechal]

5 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

... If that happens here, there could be some real nice deals to be found.

 

The deals are already here. And they're for renters  

 

Keep building, guys! Your bubble equals my cheap rent.

 

[inThailand]

3 minutes ago, Senechal said:

The deals are already here. And they're for renters  

 

Keep building, guys! Your bubble equals my cheap rent.

 

I concur.

 

I come from a country where you buy. But the spiraling down property market says renting is the best bet and the future does not look brighter.

[trogers]

4 hours ago, Senechal said:

The deals are already here. And they're for renters  

 

Keep building, guys! Your bubble equals my cheap rent.

 

Had already happened in Japan which raised a generation of renters. Took two decades of falling property prices to lift rental yields back to investment grade.

[anto]

32 minutes ago, trogers said:

Had already happened in Japan which raised a generation of renters. Took two decades of falling property prices to lift rental yields back to investment grade.

The Rep. of Ireland where i come from had a property bubble bust in 2008 .Same time as the US .Now prices have returned to near pre fall levels ,but their is a crisis of homelessness and un-affordable sky high   rents .

[chrisandsu]

2 minutes ago, anto said:

The Rep. of Ireland where i come from had a property bubble bust in 2008 .Same time as the US .Now prices have returned to near pre fall levels ,but their is a crisis of homelessness and un-affordable sky high   rents .

I live in Washington state , the price is wayyyyyy above pre bubble prices here and show no sign of going down . Luckily enough I bought a rental place during the downturn so my only advise is get that crystal ball out and try and predict the bottom ! 

[trogers]

13 minutes ago, anto said:

The Rep. of Ireland where i come from had a property bubble bust in 2008 .Same time as the US .Now prices have returned to near pre fall levels ,but their is a crisis of homelessness and un-affordable sky high   rents .

A result of the QEs in the US and EU resulting in asset bubbles in the financial market and real estate.

 

Real estate in Japan didn't go the same way due to negative population growth, though there are speculations in downtown of major cities.

[JohnLick]

Just saw another ad on FB - 31sq metre cage in Rhythm Rama9, with (as usually) the cheapest IKEA furniture ... 20k a month with note: (very cheap for this size!)

[anto]

13 minutes ago, JohnLick said:

Just saw another ad on FB - 31sq metre cage in Rhythm Rama9, with (as usually) the cheapest IKEA furniture ... 20k a month with note: (very cheap for this size!)

You could get a mansion for B20k around Doi Saket ,near Chiang mai .

[chrisandsu]

13 minutes ago, anto said:

You could get a mansion for B20k around Doi Saket ,near Chiang mai .

300 sq ft is tiny . Can one person even live in it without feeling like they are in a coffin ? Maybe we have hit on why there is so many jumpers from condo buildings . 

[trogers]

42 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

300 sq ft is tiny . Can one person even live in it without feeling like they are in a coffin ? Maybe we have hit on why there is so many jumpers from condo buildings . 

Very convenient. Just 3 steps to the microwave, toilet, bed, or out of the condo unit.

[anto]

4 hours ago, chrisandsu said:

300 sq ft is tiny . Can one person even live in it without feeling like they are in a coffin ? Maybe we have hit on why there is so many jumpers from condo buildings . 

One person can no problem.I had a 30 sqm Condo in Jomtien.Put in a Murphy bed /Hide away bed .You get used to it .Easy to clean .

[funandsuninbangkok]

On 9/14/2017 at 10:48 AM, JohnLick said:

Just saw another ad on FB - 31sq metre cage in Rhythm Rama9, with (as usually) the cheapest IKEA furniture ... 20k a month with note: (very cheap for this size!)

56,000 studio / 1 BRs for rent in Bangkok on ddproperty.  My guess is it will have to get very much cheaper!

[Senechal]

9 hours ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

56,000 studio / 1 BRs for rent in Bangkok on ddproperty.  My guess is it will have to get very much cheaper!

 

You can go to any city in the world and find crazy wishing prices online. It doesn't mean that's what's being paid. 

Unfortunately a lot of newbie investors think those are actual transactional prices and find out the hard way that their place is going to be empty.

 

[ExpatOilWorker]

On 9/10/2017 at 11:32 PM, funandsuninbangkok said:

Oh my!

 

bangkok post -  PACE development delays financial results. Stock suspended. 

 

Gee wiz. Guess high end property set to get a lot lower. 

 

PACE stocks are not suspended, they are still trading at the SET.

[Number 6]

I can't believe what horrible taste Thais have in decorating and furnishings. It's actually insulting they think there is some value to the rubbish that occupies the flats, without exception. I've often looked at places and thought, I'd ask them to remove the crap or I'll deduct it from the sale price.

 

Furnishings always included and you just know the owner has priced the stuff as new and thinks his flat pretty sweet. Malestrom of poor tasre.

 

Then you have the flats that tried some major airy fairy decorating hand job or some sad, half done renovation then abandoned. Still, fully priced.

[Number 6]

So, what could potentially be the trigger to bring it all crashing down?

 

Chinese halt buying

 

USD (world) interest rates double

 

Can't possibly think anyone from EU, UK, US or Oz is buying with x rates being what they are.

 

In the end, many sellers simply must resigning themselves to living in their box for the remainder of their lonely, single lives. If the economy doesn't tank, and they lose their job, they can stay above water. Nothing changes.

 

The economy is weakening. I see it.

[anto]

>>Can't possibly think anyone from EU, UK, US or Oz is buying with x rates being what they are.<<

 

You can get a small studio in the Pattaya area or even outer Bangkok for B1.5 M . You can not even get a lock up garage for that in the UK .