Prayut plots path to political future

[rooster59]

Prayut plots path to political future

By POLITICAL DESK 
THE SUNDAY NATION

 

 

AFTER ALMOST four years in power, the ruling junta appears to have strayed tremendously away from its original mission of healing the severe political conflicts that led to the 2014 coup.

 

Its present main goal, many observers and politicians agree, appears to be ensuring that General Prayut Chan-o-cha comes back as head of government after the next election, which he promised would take place “no later than” February next year. 

 

In attempting to regain political control after the election, the junta may want to continue with its policies and projects that are still incomplete.

 

 

There are two main “formulas” that could help General Prayut come back as prime minister.

 

First, he could return as an outsider in a second round of parliamentary voting to select the prime minister if the 500-member House of Representatives fails to reach an agreement among the political party candidates. This way, he would need support from all of the 250 junta-appointed senators plus as many MPs as possible, at least 125. Support from half of both Houses – 375 votes – is required. 

 

Another option is for Prayut to become the prime ministerial candidate for a particular political party. This way, he could be selected as PM in the first round of voting in the Lower House if he gets enough support. However, that party would have to win at least 25 House seats in order to be eligible to nominate a candidate for prime minister.

 

For the junta, the second one is a “safer” option, as it is possible that the major political parties – Pheu Thai and Democrat – will join forces to try to prevent a second round of voting to select the PM. Whichever way they choose, the junta will need support from politicians. Recent moves by Prayut and other junta figures have indicated that they are extending the hands of friendship to different groups of politicians who collectively have the potential to “make their dream come true”.

 

Over the past months, the junta leader has met leaders of those political parties and factions on different occasions. Government actions have been taken to benefit those groups, including state funding being injected into their areas of interest and their people being appointed to government jobs. Critics view these moves as “deposits” in exchange for future favours. 

 

At least eight political factions and small and medium-sized parties have enjoyed “special”, cosy ties with the junta. They are the Sasomsap faction in Pheu Thai Party, the Wang Nam Yom and Baan Rim Nam groups, another group led by former kingmaker Suthep Thaugsuban, as well as Chart Thai Pattana, Phalang Chon, Bhum Jai Thai and Chart Pattana parties. All four parties have a long history of always being coalition-government partners. Those factions and parties are dominant in their local areas or regions, each winning from fewer than 10 to a few dozen House seats in past elections. Yet, together they could easily win more than 100 House seats and would prove helpful to Prayut’s premiership bid – particularly if they join forces with a new political party that appoints the junta leader as its PM candidate. 

 

Preparations are under way to set up that particular party, which is expected to be led by key members of the government’s economic team, including Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, Industry Minister Uttama Savanayana, and Commerce Minister Sontirat Sontijirawong.

 

Stithorn Thananithichot, a senior researcher at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, said the junta would need voter support when contesting the election, so it would have to rely on politicians who already have an established support base.

 

He viewed the recent political appointments as a “good sign” that the election is drawing near.

 

“It is clear that General Prayut is moving towards the election. Those politicians are going to help the NCPO government with election matters,” the researcher said.

 

Prayut admitted that the past week’s appointment of Phalang Chon leader Sontaya Kunplome as his adviser was to help him with political matters. Critics expect more similar “political rewards” in the future.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30343683

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-04-22

[YetAnother]

3 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

Prayut admitted that the past week’s appointment of Phalang Chon leader Sontaya Kunplome as his adviser was to help him with political matters. Critics expect more similar “political rewards” in the future.

thai politics; a bottomless sewer

[Samui Bodoh]

23 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

AFTER ALMOST four years in power, the ruling junta appears to have strayed tremendously away from its original mission of healing the severe political conflicts that led to the 2014 coup.

Hmm...

 

Does anyone believe that the coup was launched for "healing the severe political conflicts"? I struggle with that. I think it was far, far more likely that the coup was launched because certain people couldn't win an election fairly and decided to cheat instead. 

 

Who cheated? My adage for Thai politics is; Yellows and Greens cheat. They cheat often. They cheat frequently. They are cheating cheaters who cheat.

 

I sincerely hope that the cheaters get tossed out and Thailand returns to a Democratic path. Thais are, generally speaking, really nice people who deserve much, much better than they are getting now.

 

 

 

Edited April 21, 2018 by Samui Bodoh
Lack of coffee

[Ossy]

58 minutes ago, YetAnother said:

thai politics; a bottomless sewer

What an enlightening post . . . just what we want, first thing on a sunny Sunday morning.

[Anak Nakal]

Prayut cheat. Army cheat.

What more say?

[yellowboat]

Suppose they are not finished ruining the country yet. 

1 hour ago, rooster59 said:

four years in power, the ruling junta appears to have strayed tremendously away from its original mission of healing the severe political conflicts that led to the 2014 coup.

They are the problem.

[Thailand]

But if he does get back as pm which is almost nailed on will he still have the guns and section 44 to fall back on at every turn?

[klauskunkel]

2 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Recent moves by Prayut and other junta figures have indicated that they are extending the hands of friendship to different groups of politicians who collectively have the potential to “make their dream come true”.

"dream come true" = Thailand's neverending nightmare

[hansnl]

2 hours ago, YetAnother said:

thai politics; a bottomless sewer

I dare to say the politics in your own country will be the same or even worse.

You really don't think politicos, anywhere, can be clean?

Dream on......

[RichardColeman]

Third option - he rolls in with the tanks and guns again !

[maxcorrigan]

1 hour ago, Thailand said:

But if he does get back as pm which is almost nailed on will he still have the guns and section 44 to fall back on at every turn?

And don't forget his blanket amnesty past present and future which will be vital when he is  resurrected in his new civilian role, just in case he makes/will a hash up, the ole boy will need protection! 

[JOC]

44 minutes ago, hansnl said:

I dare to say the politics in your own country will be the same or even worse.

You really don't think politicos, anywhere, can be clean?

Dream on......

And you are from?      Somalia, Syria, Afghanistan or North Korea?

[klauskunkel]

3 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Prayut plots path to political future

if that "path" is as twisty and full of u-turns as his "roadmap to democracy", then I'm actually not that worried

[holy cow cm]

It would be soooo funny if these guys whom he has appointed and given funding to their areas turned their back on him in the final leg. That would be soooo laughable as it is in Thai nature to smile everyway and out every orifice to make it seem real to the other party. Hopefully it will be the 2 headed Thai and bye bye Big P. 

[Lupatria]

4 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Prayut plots path to political future

Let's hope it leads to the same lonely tree on his road map, where free and fair elections crashed.

[robblok]

If I look at the picture it seems a lot of people in PTP area's support him. Will be interesting to see if they really draw people away from the PTP. 

[Media1]

boring repeat storied about s failed leader each day l ask 10 Thais about this character. The look on there face..Please his dreaming. Go home and take the watch boxes 

[Media1]

5 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Hmm...

 

Does anyone believe that the coup was launched for "healing the severe political conflicts"? I struggle with that. I think it was far, far more likely that the coup was launched because certain people couldn't win an election fairly and decided to cheat instead. 

 

Who cheated? My adage for Thai politics is; Yellows and Greens cheat. They cheat often. They cheat frequently. They are cheating cheaters who cheat.

 

I sincerely hope that the cheaters get tossed out and Thailand returns to a Democratic path. Thais are, generally speaking, really nice people who deserve much, much better than they are getting now.

 

 

 

Money and ego. And no firm justice system. A pretend police force. Like A movie allowed the old man to enter unchallenged 

[Srikcir]

2 hours ago, robblok said:

the picture it seems a lot of people in PTP area's support him.

It might be deceptive.

Having a political party in a region doesn't mean it also has the support from the majority of voters.

• To be registered by the EC a party needs only a minimum of 500 members.
• One does not have to belong to any political party to vote.

For balanced reporting The Nation should also show a map for pro-civilian (vs. pro-military) political parties but even that wouldn't be a reliable representation as the EC to date has only registered 20 out or 99 political party applicants or about 20%.

Further muddying the political waters is that some of the pro-military parties shown are not yet registered, ie Suthep's new party.

Furthermore, consider that this political map might in itself be an implicit political message - "Look at all the support there is for pro-military political parties in PTP areas!"

 

[robblok]

5 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

It might be deceptive.

Having a political party in a region doesn't mean it also has the support from the majority of voters.

• To be registered by the EC a party needs only a minimum of 500 members.
• One does not have to belong to any political party to vote.

For balanced reporting The Nation should also show a map for pro-civilian (vs. pro-military) political parties but even that wouldn't be a reliable representation as the EC to date has only registered 20 out or 99 political party applicants or about 20%.

Further muddying the political waters is that some of the pro-military parties shown are not yet registered, ie Suthep's new party.

Furthermore, consider that this political map might in itself be an implicit political message - "Look at all the support there is for pro-military political parties in PTP areas!"

 

Who knows, only the elections can tell (hopefully we have those in February). I do hope they don't get much support but in the end its up to the Thais. I do wonder how much influence those local politicians have on how the people in their area vote. 

 

The elections will be real interesting this year far more so than in the past. 

[candide]

4 hours ago, robblok said:

Who knows, only the elections can tell (hopefully we have those in February). I do hope they don't get much support but in the end its up to the Thais. I do wonder how much influence those local politicians have on how the people in their area vote. 

 

The elections will be real interesting this year far more so than in the past. 

I agree with you that it will be quite interesting to see how the Prayuth backing parties as well as the new democratic parties will perform.

 

Too bad that elections will probably not have much effect on the choice of PM. Or more precisely, only a minority of votes are likely to have an effect.

[robblok]

Just now, candide said:

I agree with you that it will be quite interesting to see how the Prayuth backing parties as well as the new democratic parties will perform.

 

Too bad that elections will probably not have much effect on the choice of PM. Or more precisely, only a minority of votes are likely to have an effect.

Yea it would be bad if Prayut became PM by way of the senators and 25% of the normal votes. 

 

But the elections will be interesting. (if they are held in February)

[Eric Loh]

This commentary is so confusing and contradictory to the previous comment in the Nation. I have my doubts on some of the information. The commentary below is better as it make references to articles in the charter. Sorry that I can link the article but do search and see the contrasting information. 

How ‘politician Prayut’ can keep his hands on the reins of power

politicsJanuary 07, 2018 01:00

By SOMROUTHAI SABSOMBOON 

[Srikcir]

4 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

This commentary is so confusing and contradictory to the previous comment in the Nation. I have my doubts on some of the information. The commentary below is better as it make references to articles in the charter. Sorry that I can link the article but do search and see the contrasting information. 

How ‘politician Prayut’ can keep his hands on the reins of power

politicsJanuary 07, 2018 01:00

By SOMROUTHAI SABSOMBOON 

??

https://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/1019106-how-‘politician-prayut’-can-keep-his-hands-on-the-reins-of-power/

 

[Ceruhe]

I need to paraphrase, but does anybody else remember Prayut saying "I'm not a politician, I'm a soldier"? and "I don't intend to stay in power"? Funny how that turned out, eh? Not saying we didn't see that coming a mile away...

[Eric Loh]

My personal opinion is that Prayut is attempting to stay in power and bring back the Sakdina system; social and cultural order of the past. There are worrying signs that “he” want to reinstate that dominance of the class system like in the old Siam. The skewed charter written by long time palace supporter which put the military in a dominant role and even the support on wearing of traditional Thai attire are carefully planned. Laws are set in place to break the electoral emergence of rural votes. If Prayut become prime minister, Thailand will regress further.

[Eligius]

There is an old saying: it is not the voting that counts, but the people that count the votes!'

 

Does anyone seriously believe that this lying, thieving, liberty-massacring junta will suddenly 'tell the truth' at the time of the 'election' as regards the voting outcome?!!!!!

 

Who can challenge them? They will still hold all the guns and all the power. Who challenged them over the 'Constitution' result? Even people on Thaivisa mainly just believe it, swallow it wholesale: 'Oh yes, 63% of the Thais voted for the new Constitution'. How do we know? Who independently verified it? Did the media even QUESTION that figure? And would the Thai media dare dig and probe into any 'election result' that just about puts Prayut back into power? Of course not!

 

Another old saying: 'the tiger cannot change its stripes, nor the leopard its spots'. Do  we really think that Prayut - liar of liars, Generalissimo of deceivers - is suddenly going to become all virtuous, honourable and lawful and tell the truth about a (from its inception) RIGGED 'election'? Really?! Remember: at the time of the 'election', he and his junta will still have supreme control of the country UNTIL A NEW GOVERNMENT IS SWORN INTO OFFICE. 

 

He can and will say anything to the Thai public. And so far - they have taken every kick in the teeth he has delivered to them.

 

Will that change? Only time will tell ....

 

Edited April 22, 2018 by Eligius

[Cadbury]

1 hour ago, Ceruhe said:

I need to paraphrase, but does anybody else remember Prayut saying "I'm not a politician, I'm a soldier"? and "I don't intend to stay in power"? Funny how that turned out, eh? Not saying we didn't see that coming a mile away...

I remember that. I also remember him saying " “I am no longer a soldier. Understood? I’m just a politician who used to be a soldier. I still have a soldier’s traits,” 

He often seems to get his stories mixed up and forgets which one is the truth and which one is the Pinocchio version. A sign of dementia perhaps? 

 

[stephen tracy]

Just now, Eric Loh said:

My personal opinion is that Prayut is attempting to stay in power and bring back the Sakdina system; social and cultural order of the past. There are worrying signs that “he” want to reinstate that dominance of the class system like in the old Siam. The skewed charter written by long time palace supporter which put the military in a dominant role and even the support on wearing of traditional Thai attire are carefully planned. Laws are set in place to break the electoral emergence of rural votes. If Prayut become prime minister, Thailand will regress further.

I don't think he would settle for prime minister. I think ultimately he's got ambitions beyond that but unlike the BP, I'm not allowed to say it directly on TV. "Long live the king."

[Eligius]

1 minute ago, Cadbury said:

I remember that. I also remember him saying " “I am no longer a soldier. Understood? I’m just a politician who used to be a soldier. I still have a soldier’s traits,” 

He often seems to get his stories mixed up and forgets which one is the truth and which one is the Pinocchio version. A sign of dementia perhaps? 

 

'A sign of dementia, perhaps?'  Maybe.

 

Or more likely: the sign of a pathological liar!