What is a "safe" level in predicting exchange rates for combo retirement applictations?

[tutsiwarrior]

I put a GBP deposit in the bank in Oct for the combo method that included a 10% margin, at the same time I transferred an extra GBP2000 for the usual expenses (I only keep one account for both purposes)...within a few weeks I saw that GBP was starting to tank further due to brexit so I raised my threshold/margin to about 15% and transferred some more dough for expenses...my income is about 50/50 SSA from the US (USD) and private pension from the UK (GBP) but the amount that appears on the income affidavit from the USE is a total in USD...

 

when I got to the IO this month with my new extension application they converted the affidavit amount in dollars and added the deposit from October in baht and I was OK...I had just sorta played it by ear...they also looked at bank statements from both BKK Bank (SSA) and from K - Bank (transfers from bank in UK) and the usual bank letter from K - bank where I had deposited the necessary amount in October...

 

itsa real roller coaster but that's what we gotta put up with in these 'interesting times'...I was about to say urk it and bail out but I'm fatally attached to my bed and my duvet at my home of 17 years...

 

 

Edited December 29, 2018 by tutsiwarrior

[Agusts]

It's amazing some people don't get this,  they say put 10% buffer,  or Top Up etc.  , these are not full proof. GBP can swing widly in the next few months...

 

The immigration should not use today's rate to find if your money was correct 3 months ago,  that is totally stupid and could even be against them and wrong if the rate bounces up - strangely they don't understand this. If I put £15k now and rate goes to 60 when I go to their office in 3 months,  they say it's okay...!!!!?  Idiots,  in fact it wasn't - 15k * 41...! 

 

The correct way is to multiply daily balance to daily rate to see if my balance is above 800k during every day of 3 months...! BTW,  if this is a bit complicated for you to understand,  no need to comment,  just move on to the next post... lol

 

Yes, exchanging GBP to baht to 800k is the full proof method,  but you will kick yourself when say next year or two or three GBP bounces,  it's at it's some lowest rates now !

Hence, Brits may want to use £ not baht...but due to Brexit it is risky in the next few months...that's what we are talking about.

 

 

[Jingthing]

Not so amazing. People get the concept of buffer. The trick is what percentage makes the most sense. In any case the income methods are questionable now anyway. That's much more important now than buffer planning.

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[farangx]

23 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Not so amazing. People get the concept of buffer. The trick is what percentage makes the most sense.
 

I am comfortable with 30%, that been said I was already in the money for quite a while.

 

[steve73]

12 hours ago, Agusts said:

It's amazing some people don't get this,  they say put 10% buffer,  or Top Up etc.  , these are not full proof. GBP can swing widly in the next few months...

 

The immigration should not use today's rate to find if your money was correct 3 months ago,  that is totally stupid and could even be against them and wrong if the rate bounces up - strangely they don't understand this. If I put £15k now and rate goes to 60 when I go to their office in 3 months,  they say it's okay...!!!!?  Idiots,  in fact it wasn't - 15k * 41...! 

 

The correct way is to multiply daily balance to daily rate to see if my balance is above 800k during every day of 3 months...! BTW,  if this is a bit complicated for you to understand,  no need to comment,  just move on to the next post... lol

 

Yes, exchanging GBP to baht to 800k is the full proof method,  but you will kick yourself when say next year or two or three GBP bounces,  it's at it's some lowest rates now !

Hence, Brits may want to use £ not baht...but due to Brexit it is risky in the next few months...that's what we are talking about.

 

 

Whilst I agree with much of what you say, you surely cannot expect your local Immigration Somchai to go over the past 3 months multiplying every days bank balance by the exchange rate on that day (which are often updated many times throughout the day).  Better to use a single rate (i.e. today's latest) and check that the foreign currency did not drop below this over the previous 3 months.  A rising rate would not affect a minimum baht required, and depositing less than the minimum in the expectation that rates would rise would be stupid in the extreme.

 

As to kicking oneself if the exchange rate bounces, it would be nowhere near as hard as I would kick myself if my extension was denied for want of an extra few baht.

 

If you are able to deposit sufficient GBP to meet the 800k, then better to convert it than be unsure if it will suffice, if the rate does change against you a little, then just consider it an extra cost of living here.   

[Shiver]

800K is Baht, and any other currency in the world doesn't count.

 

If I could to buy a currency today at the price from 3 months ago, I'd own Forex in a heartbeat, but that's not the way it works.

 

If you're going to stay for a year then 800K is not that big a risk.  You can send a limited amount outbound anyhow, within capital controls limits.  If you're reasonably well off then you don't sweat it.  If you have to be very careful and make ends meet then that's no position to take a gamble from, and a safety play makes more sense.

You could buy an Option with a 3 month expiry on it, so you'd have limited liability and no ceiling on gains.

[Jingthing]

I assume they calculate based on the exchange rate that they use on the date of application. They do NOT backtrack on exchange rates. Yes they do need to look at the history to see whether you went under based on the current exchange rate. 

[ubonjoe]

22 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I assume they calculate based on the exchange rate that they use on the date of application. They do NOT backtrack on exchange rates. Yes they do need to look at the history to see whether you went under based on the current exchange rate. 

They would calculate the monthly income part based upon the exchange rate on the date of the application. Multiply it by 12 to get the annual income amount and subtract that from 800k baht to determine the minimum amount needed in the bank. Then check that the starting amount in the bank 3 months (or 60 days if the first extension) before that day was at least that amount and that it never went lower than that during that period.

[Jingthing]

6 minutes ago, ubonjoe said:

They would calculate the monthly income part based upon the exchange rate on the date of the application. Multiply it by 12 to get the annual income amount and subtract that from 800k baht to determine the minimum amount needed in the bank. Then check that the starting amount in the bank 3 months (or 60 days if the first extension) before that day was at least that amount and that it never went lower than that during that period.

Yes, that is precisely what I had assumed. Thanks for the confirmation.