$AU down to 18 Baht by end 2019 - What's your break-even point?

[Naam]

21 minutes ago, Stevemercer said:

A coup would put a headwind into the Baht's ride and at least hold it up a bit.

where do you see any headwind (GBP THB) and (AUD THB)?

 

Edited September 5, 2018 by Naam

[Hoppyone]

4 hours ago, Naam said:

"most predictions" as far as currency movements are concerned are nothing but lukewarm farts no matter which "gurus" made them. if those who predict that kind of movement in AUD/THB (minus ~20%) would put their money where their big mouth is they could make millions.... that is if their forecast turns out to be correct.

 

2 hours ago, Time Traveller said:

Fortunately, sarcasm is not understood by the Klingons. In fact, thinking is not their strong points, but they often repeat well worn out tidbits of advice to maintain the illusion of intellectual superiority ?

 

They say the foreign markets are tumbling world wide anything is possible,and yes 4 years ago when coup was happening we were getting 30 baht to $.and if you are living of your age pension you are minus around 13,000 baht ($565)a month worse off today 

[MikeN]

41 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

At least Shorten is not beholden to a bunch of right-wing retards. Labor has no obligation to the industries that are busy bribing the Libs and Nationals, so can develop sensible policy.

Think about it. Every other nation on the planet is desperately trying to develop renewable energy, and Australia has more sunlight and wind than anywhere else in the world. We have world-class researchers who are producing innovations which will revolutionise energy manufacture and transportation in the next 20 years. That's despite the death of a thousand cuts from the current bunch. Australia has enormous potential in that field.

 

No, Shorten is only beholden to the CFMU and it’s thugs. Don’t expect any real support for renewable energy from Labor, the coal industry will always be number one for them. No doubt they will issue lots of green platitudes, but only to try and stem their losses to the Greens.

[mfd101]

17 minutes ago, Stevemercer said:

There are many predictions out there. I admit I looked at the most pessimistic (this was a simple trend line based on the dollar/baht over the last 18 months and extending the same trend over the next 18 months). Most predictions were closer to 20 Baht by the end of 2019. None forecast a weakening Baht, or strengthening Australian dollar, over the next 3 years.

The 'trend lines' we can look at are not really trend lines at all, that is, they have (mostly) ZERO predictive capability. They are really just backward glances at the smoothed-out graph of what happened this morning, yesterday, last week, last month and so on.

 

If you've ever (as I have) rushed out the door heading to the nearest atm to debit your account in Oz, you will know that where the xrate is at this moment and where it was 5 minutes ago is NO indication of where it will be in another 10 or 20 minutes, or tomorrow or the next day ...

[NoshowJones]

Maybe I have got it wrong here, but the Thai Baht has been strong for years, and  does not seem to be weakening.

 

How is that, in say the last twenty years the UK pound has never stayed strong like the Thai baht, what is

Thailand doing right that the UK isn't. I know about Brexit, but that's only been in the last two years.

 

Back in the early eighties, one of the few times I have been to America, you got about 2.20 dollars to the pound, I

cannot see that happening again yet the Thai baht in recent years has stayed strong.

[lagavulin1]

4 hours ago, CharlieH said:

Often the single most expensive cost is accommodation. If you are not lucky enough to have bought your own place I would suggest cohabiting with another person perhaps in the same boat. That would reduce overheads by 50% immediately for both parties.

 

Just a suggestion.

Sensible idea Charlie.

[MikeN]

Some predictions have the Oz dollar at around $0.50 US, but that is the US dollar going up rather than the Aussie going down. The Thai baht is already considered to be overvalued so it is very unlikely to go up too, the net result will be the AU/TH rate remaining pretty much the same as it is now. Although I would love to see it at least return to it’s long term median since the baht was floated of around 26 to 28 baht/AU$.

[Naam]

2 hours ago, Time Traveller said:

Don't worry mate, I first came to Thailand when the Aussie was 18 to the Baht......had some great times then !

most probably 18 Baht bought in these times what 100 Baht are buying today. in the early 70s, when i first visited Thailand as a tourist, i paid 60 Baht for SIX rock lobsters in a proper BKK hotel restaurant. 

[natway09]

When I came AUD just over 17 Bht at one stage

Let me know when your crystal ball tells me it's heading back that way.

Both Australia & US are going through political turmoil,

Why wouldn't the world financial markets get a little nervous.

A Trump collapse could affect the AUD as well

[Naam]

4 minutes ago, MikeN said:

Some predictions have the Oz dollar at around $0.50 US, but that is the US dollar going up rather than the Aussie going down. The Thai baht is already considered to be overvalued so it is very unlikely to go up too, the net result will be the AU/TH rate remaining pretty much the same as it is now.

Paramount Chief of the U.S. of A., World Twitter Champion and Leader of the Fre World™  Donald Trump thinks indeed the Baht is overvalued. 

[Naam]

2 hours ago, Sparkles said:

It did actually go to 32 baht to the A$ now its 28.3 baht or was a few days back when I got my OA pension.

Mate... your're in dire need of reading glasses 

[Laza 45]

1 hour ago, logres212 said:

The major problem is going to qualifying for the retirement extension using income if relying on the Aus. pension plus a bit of money in a Thai bank account,( needing about 300,000 Bhat at the moment.) So if the dollar drops much further it's going to make it difficult for some, unless in the unlikely event the Aus pension gets a substantial boost....

That is true.. but it depends on how short you might be.. not necessarily 300,000 Bt.. if only 5.. 10 or 15 K short of 65K requirement..  Not convenient for everyone but I don't keep money here .. I get my OA multi entry in Oz.. Could be a problem for someone getting an extension here.. but.. what goes up comes down.. what goes down comes up again... a few years ago I was down to 19 Bt to the $Au.. then it went up again.. so on and on it goes.. GDP figures today were encouraging.. stopped the slide for the moment.. I think  fingers crossed.. Much depends on what happens if the US.. the economy is booming at the moment.. but who knows where Trump's war on the planet will lead.. ?? 

[nanglong218]

51 minutes ago, ThaiFelix said:

$6,000?  Is this correct or do you mean 6,000 baht?

My wedding present to my stepson 18 months ago was AUD7000 to pay to bring his new bride to Australia.

 

[Thian]

5 hours ago, Naam said:

"most predictions" as far as currency movements are concerned are nothing but lukewarm farts no matter which "gurus" made them. if those who predict that kind of movement in AUD/THB (minus ~20%) would put their money where their big mouth is they could make millions.... that is if their forecast turns out to be correct.

Well if i look at the chart it isn't hard to make a prediction....18 won't come (or maybe for 1 week or so) and i assume the chart will go up again soon....

 

Mind you this is a weekly chart...

[Naam]

2 hours ago, Time Traveller said:

Fortunately, sarcasm is not understood by the Klingons. In fact, thinking is not their strong points, but they often repeat well worn out tidbits of advice to maintain the illusion of intellectual superiority ?

any advice no matter how well worn out is superior to the ridiculous fairy tales pertaining to finances you have been presenting over several years.

[simple1]

2 minutes ago, Naam said:

Mate... your're in dire need of reading glasses 

Yep, guess a typo, today's rate from Oz government for pension payment via the RBA is 23.58

 

Yesterday I made a private transfer to Thailand, rate was 22.99.

 

There are some long term forecasts, naturally subject to change, but at the moment over the next few years dropping down to 18 / 19 baht per AUD. An example...

 

https://audtoday.com/aud-to-thb-forecast

 

[MikeN]

21 minutes ago, natway09 said:

 

A Trump collapse could affect the AUD as well

A Trump collapse means China wins the trade tariff wars, which would probably mean better prospects for the resources export market to China, which would be a bonus for the Aussie dollar value. When coal, iron ore, etc are in demand history shows that the AU$ is worth more.

[ThaiFelix]

20 minutes ago, nanglong218 said:

My wedding present to my stepson 18 months ago was AUD7000 to pay to bring his new bride to Australia.

 

Ok youre talking permanently yes?  My mind is stuck on a tourist visa as I am thinking of taking my wife back for a holiday soon....about AUD150 I believe.

[muratremix]

If AUD is down to 18 baht, do you think Australia will have same food / rent costs compared to 5 years ago?

Thailand is getting more expensive, but it is still cheaper than Australia & Canada.

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, GreasyFingers said:

You obviously do not agree with Larry Pickering's assessment of Shorten.

He's a brilliant cartoonist. He's also a thief and liar who dudded many investors with his Cohen Strachan company. So excuse me if I don't value his opinions very highly.

[CGW]

4 hours ago, Guderian said:

Maybe .... there'll be a coup or something in Thailand.

 

Nor did the one back in 2006 as far as I can recall.

Correct! neither did the umpteen previous ones! quite why I have never worked out ?

[ICECOOL]

I read the article. The pessimists (Morgan Stanley) have the Aussie dipping down to us65 then rising and the optimists (HSBC and CBA) up to Us88 in 2019. The rest are in the middle. Won't be losing sleep on that article. 

[mfd101]

Of course, in all of this we should remember that a weak $A is good for the Oz economy (encourage exports - which includes tourism and foreign students, & discourage imports). And a strong economy does, in the long run, produce a strong $A. Which just leaves the short run to worry about.

 

Incidentally, today's good news on the Oz economy was a continuation of what is now 27 years of uninterrupted growth. A world record (for all you pessimists).

[tropo]

6 hours ago, Stevemercer said:

The Aussie dollar was 30 Baht just 5 years ago. Now it is 23 Baht (25% drop). Most predictions have the Aussie dollar down to 18 Baht by the end to 2019 (40% drop compared to 5 years ago when I moved to Thailand).

I wonder what these currency gurus predict the AUD/USD exchange rate will be at end of 2019.

 

[theguyfromanotherforum]

Western currencies are all going down the toilet- except perhaps US dollar. Australia, NZ, Canada, most EU countries have no economy left. Yes, they lower currencies to increase competition, but at this point they are still a far cry comparing with Thai wages. Lets just take Thai (sex) tourism into account and you tell me how can any Western country compete with it? Result? Thai baht trough the roof.

 

People here hoping for a coup  or even worse civil war for a currency to drop are not very smart. This is the same reasoning I hear here in Toronto when people say they are hoping for a 50% real estate crash. Real estate crash of such proportions would leave many people unemployed with social services deteriorating beyond repair. A civil unrest in Thailand would leave many foreigners penniless. Why do you think your assets would be safe when everyone else is suffering? Have you really lived such a protected life in your "nanny state" that you are beyond stupid?

 

32 minutes ago, muratremix said:

If AUD is down to 18 baht, do you think Australia will have same food / rent costs compared to 5 years ago?

Thailand is getting more expensive, but it is still cheaper than Australia & Canada.

 

Wrong. Been in Toronto for almost 2 months now. Everything and I mean everything is cheaper than Thailand except transport and maybe housing. I say maybe, because the same quality housing in Bangkok that's not built by Cambodian slave labor would cost more than Toronto. So, it helps a bit to own a property here instead of listening to people who sold everything back home to "live a dream". 

 

 

[JimHuaHin]

Hi Steve and others,

 

Steve, I do share your concerns, and I have also been here for five years.

 

During the 3.5 years I was in Australia (Cairns) before coming here, I kept a detailed Excel file on my daily expenditures - food (eating out and foods purchased at supermarket), medical expenses, rates and various insurance costs, petrol, clothing, lotto, travel, books, etc.  So I had a good idea how much I was spending on what.

 

Similarly, in Thailand I have kept an approximate Excel file of my daily expenditures.

 

As some have argued, certainly some things are cheaper here than in Australia - many foods, utilities, most medications made in Thailand, health costs, etc.  And some things are more expensive here than in Australia - many health costs, many medications manufactured overseas and imported into Thailand, many motor vehicles, etc. and in some cases rental accommodation and housing, depending on where you live.

 

We all live different lives here, and back in Australia.  And we may have different responsibilities here than in Australia, for example partners, family, etc.   Therefore, we need to make our own decisions based on cost of living and our income (and savings if any).

 

About a year before leaving Australia I looked at the data on historic interest rates in Australia and Thailand, and similar data on the A$-Baht exchange rate.  I guessed, wrongly, that Australian interest rates would not fall below 3-4 percent - this would allow me reasonably extra bank interest income from savings I parked in a bank account, to cover daily living expenses in Thailand.  I also guessed, wrongly it seems, that the A$ would not fall below 22-23 Baht.  My other income comes from a super pension, which is indexed on the Australia CPI.

 

As a couple of other posters have commented, the Australian economy is strong, and should improve.  But nothing is certain.

 

The Thai economy, on the other hand, officially is great!!  But, to me the Thai economic and financial data just do not make sense.  At times there are big contradictions in the official Thai data coming from different government bodies.  The amount of personal debt is staggering, and what I see on the ground, as well as what my Thai friends tell me, suggest that the official Thai data is very very rubbery.  In this regard, the Thai Baht seems way over valued.

 

So, rather than ramble on further.

 

For now, I am staying here.  But, if the A$ sinks to 15 Baht, it would be cheaper for me to live in Australia.

 

Hope this helps, and good luck Steve.

[scorecard]

4 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Naam is right. Over the past ten years, the AUD against the baht has NEVER been below 20 baht. Currencies fluctuate all the time. ( Source: xe.com )

Once we get rid of the current cabal of clowns in Canberra, and develop a sensible energy policy, the Aussie dollar will rise again.

 And it would be very interesting to learn some specific points which bring the 18Baht prediction.

 

 

[Naam]

1 hour ago, Laza 45 said:

a few years ago I was down to 19 Bt to the $Au..

the lowest ever AUD THB rate was 20.95 on october 20, 2008

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, JimHuaHin said:

 

The Thai economy, on the other hand, officially is great!!  But, to me the Thai economic and financial data just do not make sense.  At times there are big contradictions in the official Thai data coming from different government bodies.  The amount of personal debt is staggering, and what I see on the ground, as well as what my Thai friends tell me, suggest that the official Thai data is very very rubbery.  In this regard, the Thai Baht seems way over valued.

 

The Thai baht is subject to manipulation, just like other currencies. There is a contradiction between slapping exorbitant tariffs on imported goods, and having a strong Thai baht which makes imports cheaper and exports dearer.

Bullion gold is in short supply at the Thai gold shops. It's trading low, and every Thai with cash in hand is in there buying.

[Lacessit]

2 hours ago, MikeN said:

No, Shorten is only beholden to the CFMU and it’s thugs. Don’t expect any real support for renewable energy from Labor, the coal industry will always be number one for them. No doubt they will issue lots of green platitudes, but only to try and stem their losses to the Greens.

Business in Australia has already made overtures to Labor with respect to a sustainable energy policy. They've given up on the rabble of the Coal - ition.

The whole Liberal mess is because they are trying to recapture the votes they have lost to One Nation. Good luck with that.