Trade war has little to no impact on Thai economy: UTCC

[webfact]

Trade war has little to no impact on Thai economy: UTCC

 

 

BANGKOK, 21st October 2018 (NNT) – The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) says the country’s economy remains strong in spite of the ongoing trade war between the United States and China. 

Thanawat Polvichai, director of the Economic and Business Forecast Centre of the UTCC, on Saturday revealed that the country hasn’t yet felt the impact of the global trade war and that the Thai economy remains strong despite rising crude oil prices in the global market and the lower number of Chinese tourists arriving in Thailand. 

If the country is able to gain back Chinese tourists’ confidence by November, coupled with various tourism-related festivities and government spending, Thanawat reckons that the overall economy will expand by 4.6% this year. 

As for 2019, he said government infrastructure projects and the expansion of the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) will determine the growth of the Thai economy which the center expects should range between 4% and 4.5%.

 

-- nnt 2018-10-22

[Thian]

Just wait untill other continents/countries find out that Thailand has huge importtax on their products....i wonder how they got away with that for so long.

[simoh1490]

The lack of Chinese tourists is not a confidence thing it's a yuan weakness thing, a direct consequence of the trade war.

 

[mikebell]

4.6% if the Chinese come back!

[mfd101]

So no letup on exchange rates ...

 

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

So no letup on exchange rates ...

 

There will be, if CNY stays low, there has to be.

[thailand49]

3 hours ago, Thian said:

Just wait untill other continents/countries find out that Thailand has huge importtax on their products....i wonder how they got away with that for so long.

You are so right!  I've already written to my Congressman to put them on the list although Thailand is smaller than China they are no better the deficit is growing close to 15 Billion right now. 

[simoh1490]

Just now, thailand49 said:

You are so right!  I've already written to my Congressman to put them on the list although Thailand is smaller than China they are no better the deficit is growing close to 15 Billion right now. 

What deficit?

[Oziex1]

Their economy is linked to Chinese tourists, do they have anything else? 

[thaiguzzi]

14 minutes ago, thailand49 said:

You are so right!  I've already written to my Congressman to put them on the list although Thailand is smaller than China they are no better the deficit is growing close to 15 Billion right now. 

 

3 hours ago, Thian said:

Just wait untill other continents/countries find out that Thailand has huge importtax on their products....i wonder how they got away with that for so long.

Good grief! Or better yet, Jesus wept.

 

Ah, bless, ickle little Expats upset about a developing country trying to come out from 3rd world status and move in with other 2nd world countries by charging excess taxes on their imported goodies.

Like Cheese. And cars. And Harleys And And....

Yeah, you tell 'em. Hey Americans, start a trade war with the Thais too!

Ah bless.

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Trade war has little to no impact on Thai economy: UTCC

The bullshIt these inept people in govt depts spout is incredible & jaw dropping. Complete numpties.

Here's 2 just for starters in the agriculture sector;

less rubber and rice sold to China.

[weegee]

I see the Magic November was mentioned in the OP.....

[simoh1490]

16 minutes ago, weegee said:

I see the Magic November was mentioned in the OP.....

Be nice, you know such things are no good for my stomach acid.

[observer90210]

With a currency exchange in Thailand of 1 US$ = only around 32,xx, they better  worry for their exports and such a bad rate of exchange will scare off many tourists to other countries where foreign currency gets a higher buck on local currency...

[zzaa09]

11 hours ago, Thian said:

Just wait untill other continents/countries find out that Thailand has huge importtax on their products....i wonder how they got away with that for so long.

Matter of survival, as everyone seeks impossible import tariffs. 

 

The world's economies are largely based on sheer illusion, anyway.

It's the game that's being played.

 

Any cognitive approach is moot.

[chainarong]

I was out with some people in who work in export and it don't look good, so someone is handling the truth carelessly

[thailand49]

11 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

What deficit?

Read the Bangkok Post today column,  " Does Thailand manipulate the baht, even before this article prior to the PM going to America it was reported the trade deficit was 15 Billion and the officials were considering putting S. Korea and Thailand on the list of countries to be targeted like China. 

In fact a month ago Thailand was bragging about benefiting from the trade war with China. Many of their products like their rice is being sold in America with very little import duty, while just the other day I was a Big C, for example a Hertz ketchup bottle 135 baht sitting next to it was the Thai brand at 35 baht the list goes on and on.

 

[thailand49]

 

Why waste a real response to ignorances!

[simoh1490]

6 hours ago, thailand49 said:

Read the Bangkok Post today column,  " Does Thailand manipulate the baht, even before this article prior to the PM going to America it was reported the trade deficit was 15 Billion and the officials were considering putting S. Korea and Thailand on the list of countries to be targeted like China. 

In fact a month ago Thailand was bragging about benefiting from the trade war with China. Many of their products like their rice is being sold in America with very little import duty, while just the other day I was a Big C, for example a Hertz ketchup bottle 135 baht sitting next to it was the Thai brand at 35 baht the list goes on and on.

 

1

As of Feb 2018, Thailand incurred the highest trade deficits with the following countries:

1. China: -US$15.3 billion (country-specific trade deficit in 2017)
2. Japan: -$10.1 billion
3. United Arab Emirates: -$5 billion
4. Saudi Arabia: -$4.5 billion
5. Taiwan: -$4.2 billion
6. South Korea: -$3.5 billion
7. Thailand: -$3.3 billion
8. Switzerland: -$3 billion
9. Qatar: -$2.2 billion
10. France: -$1.7 billion

..whereas total exports per country were:

 

1. China: US$29.4 billion (12.4% of total Thai exports)
2. United States: $26.5 billion (11.2%)
3. Japan: $22.3 billion (9.4%)
4. Hong Kong: $12.3 billion (5.2%)
5. Vietnam: $11.6 billion (4.9%)
6. Australia: $10.5 billion (4.4%)
7. Malaysia: $10.3 billion (4.4%)
8. Indonesia: $8.8 billion (3.7%)
9. Singapore: $8.2 billion (3.5%)
10. Philippines: $6.9 billion (2.9%)
11. India: $6.5 billion (2.7%)
12. Cambodia: $5.3 billion (2.2%)
13. Germany: $4.9 billion (2.1%)
14. Netherlands: $4.8 billion (2%)
15. South Korea: $4.6 billion (2%)

http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-import-partners/

 

So in very simple terms, Thailand exported 11.2% of it's total exports to the US and this represented US 29.4 bill. in total or US 15.3 bill more than it imported from the US. 

 

Forgive me but where is it written that imports and exports must be balanced or equal at the country level and if so, is 29.4 vs 15.3 really that onerous, I don't think so!

 

  

 

 

[simoh1490]

6 hours ago, thailand49 said:

 

Why waste a real response to ignorances!

I don't mind if you don't want to debate this but snotty lines like that one won't win the debate, so best clean up your act if you want to continue!

[Thian]

10 hours ago, thailand49 said:

Read the Bangkok Post today column,  " Does Thailand manipulate the baht, even before this article prior to the PM going to America it was reported the trade deficit was 15 Billion and the officials were considering putting S. Korea and Thailand on the list of countries to be targeted like China. 

In fact a month ago Thailand was bragging about benefiting from the trade war with China. Many of their products like their rice is being sold in America with very little import duty, while just the other day I was a Big C, for example a Hertz ketchup bottle 135 baht sitting next to it was the Thai brand at 35 baht the list goes on and on.

 

Yesterday in the Makro, the cheapest pack of margarine butter was 169 baht. In Europe it would have costed 1 euro or so.

 

Hoegaarden beer, 130 baht a bottle.....30 baht in Europe..

 

I wouldn't be surprised if one of these days Thailand will get the same treatment as china...that might even be from Europe as well.

[thailand49]

53 minutes ago, Thian said:

Yesterday in the Makro, the cheapest pack of margarine butter was 169 baht. In Europe it would have costed 1 euro or so.

 

Hoegaarden beer, 130 baht a bottle.....30 baht in Europe..

 

I wouldn't be surprised if one of these days Thailand will get the same treatment as china...that might even be from Europe as well.

And they basically brag about it on the Bangkok Post. Prior to my short trip home to the U.S. my son ask me to pick up a pair of Nike for him. Since his foot is super wide I took him to the Outlet to try a few pairs on to make sure I pick up the right size for him.  I already knew but even at the Outlets it is nothing but a big rip off, price marked up then reduced shoes are majority made in Vietnam. The shoe he wanted was marked at 4500 baht, I found it at Big 5, for basically 1500 baht.

[thailand49]

5 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

As of Feb 2018, Thailand incurred the highest trade deficits with the following countries:

1. China: -US$15.3 billion (country-specific trade deficit in 2017)
2. Japan: -$10.1 billion
3. United Arab Emirates: -$5 billion
4. Saudi Arabia: -$4.5 billion
5. Taiwan: -$4.2 billion
6. South Korea: -$3.5 billion
7. Thailand: -$3.3 billion
8. Switzerland: -$3 billion
9. Qatar: -$2.2 billion
10. France: -$1.7 billion

..whereas total exports per country were:

 

1. China: US$29.4 billion (12.4% of total Thai exports)
2. United States: $26.5 billion (11.2%)
3. Japan: $22.3 billion (9.4%)
4. Hong Kong: $12.3 billion (5.2%)
5. Vietnam: $11.6 billion (4.9%)
6. Australia: $10.5 billion (4.4%)
7. Malaysia: $10.3 billion (4.4%)
8. Indonesia: $8.8 billion (3.7%)
9. Singapore: $8.2 billion (3.5%)
10. Philippines: $6.9 billion (2.9%)
11. India: $6.5 billion (2.7%)
12. Cambodia: $5.3 billion (2.2%)
13. Germany: $4.9 billion (2.1%)
14. Netherlands: $4.8 billion (2%)
15. South Korea: $4.6 billion (2%)

http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-import-partners/

 

So in very simple terms, Thailand exported 11.2% of it's total exports to the US and this represented US 29.4 bill. in total or US 15.3 bill more than it imported from the US. 

 

Forgive me but where is it written that imports and exports must be balanced or equal at the country level and if so, is 29.4 vs 15.3 really that onerous, I don't think so!

 

  

 

 

Where does it state or written that imports and exports must be unbalanced? No one here is asking for equal even someone like me here, but the reality even if you were Thai if you had a choice of buying a Thai Ketchup or a Western one price was close to equal it would be a clear choice. The global economy is just wording if Thailand duty western products as America is duty their products Thailand economy would be hurting.

[Fex Bluse]

On 10/22/2018 at 5:14 AM, Thian said:

Just wait untill other continents/countries find out that Thailand has huge importtax on their products....i wonder how they got away with that for so long.

They got away with it because Thailand is a nobody in global trade. A bit of rice and putting together hard drives is basically all they do. And, lots of people, including other Asians don't even like the famous Thai rice. The Japanese famously threw it into the ocean 

[simoh1490]

5 minutes ago, thailand49 said:

Where does it state or written that imports and exports must be unbalanced? No one here is asking for equal even someone like me here, but the reality even if you were Thai if you had a choice of buying a Thai Ketchup or a Western one price was close to equal it would be a clear choice. The global economy is just wording if Thailand duty western products as America is duty their products Thailand economy would be hurting.

That was my question to you but in reverse! So since you can't or won't answer that question, try and answer this one:

 

What should the ratio of exports to imports be between two countries, 1:1, clearly you don't like 2:1! And if it's supposed to be 1:1, why must it balanced other than to demonstrate a perfect world, which it is far from. Clearly, American business sees advantages to having manufacturing plants in Thailand/Asia in order to service regional markets, that makes sense to them and to most people but not to some members of the US government. That being the case, why penalise the host country for providing a more cost-effective and accommodative business environment than their own country does.

[simoh1490]

4 minutes ago, Fex Bluse said:

They got away with it because Thailand is a nobody in global trade. A bit of rice and putting together hard drives is basically all they do. And, lots of people, including other Asians don't even like the famous Thai rice. The Japanese famously threw it into the ocean 

Here, read some fact rather than spout nonesence:

 

http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-10-exports/

 

1. Machinery including computers: US$40.2 billion (17% of total exports)
2. Electrical machinery, equipment: $34.1 billion (14.4%)
3. Vehicles: $28.5 billion (12.1%)
4. Rubber, rubber articles: $16.3 billion (6.9%)
5. Gems, precious metals: $12.8 billion (5.4%)
6. Plastics, plastic articles: $12.7 billion (5.4%)
7. Mineral fuels including oil: $8.2 billion (3.5%)
8. Meat/seafood preparations: $6.3 billion (2.7%)
9. Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $5.7 billion (2.4%)
10. Cereals: $5.4 billion (2.3%)

Note ceral crops are bottom of the export list!

[Fex Bluse]

10 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Here, read some fact rather than spout nonesence:

 

http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-10-exports/

 

1. Machinery including computers: US$40.2 billion (17% of total exports)
2. Electrical machinery, equipment: $34.1 billion (14.4%)
3. Vehicles: $28.5 billion (12.1%)
4. Rubber, rubber articles: $16.3 billion (6.9%)
5. Gems, precious metals: $12.8 billion (5.4%)
6. Plastics, plastic articles: $12.7 billion (5.4%)
7. Mineral fuels including oil: $8.2 billion (3.5%)
8. Meat/seafood preparations: $6.3 billion (2.7%)
9. Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $5.7 billion (2.4%)
10. Cereals: $5.4 billion (2.3%)

Note ceral crops are bottom of the export list!

Nice numbers, but what do they communicate? 

 

I have some numbers, too. Tell me how significant Thailand is in global trade. 

 

 

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, Fex Bluse said:

Nice numbers, but what do they communicate? 

 

I have some numbers, too. Tell me how significant Thailand is in global trade. 

 

 

Thailand, in the context of global trade, it's not significant at all, BUT Thailands significance is not the issue being discussed here, the parameters for trade deficits and their balance is!

[Fex Bluse]

8 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Thailand, in the context of global trade, it's not significant at all, BUT Thailands significance is not the issue being discussed here, the parameters for trade deficits and their balance is!

How insignificant they are is DIRECTLY relevant to reactions or lack thereof to any deficit they may have with a particular country. 

 

Thailand is a nobody. Population 9 times larger than Singapore but same size economy. And even amongst their economy, they produce very little of significant value. Zero high technology. Zero world-class product. Zero intellectual property. Rice and machinery. That's it. 

[simoh1490]

1 hour ago, Fex Bluse said:

How insignificant they are is DIRECTLY relevant to reactions or lack thereof to any deficit they may have with a particular country. 

 

Thailand is a nobody. Population 9 times larger than Singapore but same size economy. And even amongst their economy, they produce very little of significant value. Zero high technology. Zero world-class product. Zero intellectual property. Rice and machinery. That's it. 

You seem have difficulty understanding that what is being discussed is the ratio between imports from and exports to a particular country, if you just want to bash Thailand go somewhere else and don't it because we're not interested in listening to you.

[Fex Bluse]

20 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

You seem have difficulty understanding that what is being discussed is the ratio between imports from and exports to a particular country, if you just want to bash Thailand go somewhere else and don't it because we're not interested in listening to you.

Being of free will, I am discussing what I wish to discuss. I can, however, acknowledge that you may be discussing some other point.