Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[My Thai Life]

1 minute ago, rixalex said:

Whether or not remainers are happy with May's deal, the point is that if the binary vote in 2016 could be successfully argued as being too complex and that the people didn't really know what they were voting for, this proposed second referendum will be open to the same criticism, for anyone so inclined.

Even Sir Ivan Rogers, the ardent remainer, was clear in his recent speech at Liverpool Unversity that a second referendum is not appropriate.

 

"A majority voted to leave altogether.

And when they did, they were not told that, at the end of the withdrawal phase of the negotiation, there would be another vote on whether they meant it, now that they saw the terms. We can’t rewrite the history of what happened.

And, incidentally, second vote campaigners seem either remarkably coy about whether they want to remain on the terms Cameron negotiated or whether some great new offer will be forthcoming – notably on free movement of people – from EU elites supposedly desperate to give us something now they were not prepared to negotiate with Cameron.

So let me puncture that fantasy first: no such offer will be coming."

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, rixalex said:

That wasn't quite my point.

Whether or not remainers are happy with May's deal, the point is that if the binary vote in 2016 could be successfully argued as being too complex and that the people didn't really know what they were voting for, this proposed second referendum will be open to the same criticism, for anyone so inclined.

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

The interesting point is that NO-ONE is happy with May and the eu's 'deal' -,not even the remainers, although they obviously consider a leave in name only 'deal' better than genuinely leaving.

 

Nonetheless, she insists that it fulfills everyone's requirements ????.

 

And yet she is still pushing it as the way forward....

[tebee]

The European Commission will at noon today publish its preparation plans for no-deal Brexit. Here are some highlights based on early info:

 

1) UK nationals residing in other EU countries will from 29 March no longer have the right to live/work there - in their words, Brits will not be given any special right to stay on the continent. But the Commission will ask member states to prepare national laws to allow them to stay for now, so they’re not immediately expelled.

It’s up to national capitals whether they want to do this

2) The Commission will put in place some sector-specific emergency arrangements, but these will be very limited in time and scope. 

They include emergency arrangements to stop planes from being grounded, and measures for financial services to protect money flows.

 

3) The key thing that will be stressed for all transition arrangements is that they are temporary (will last only until the end of next year) and can be cancelled unilaterally by the EU.

 

4) This proposal will need to be approved by member states and the European Parliament before MEPs leave for election campaigning in March.

That leaves just 2 months for this legislation to be considered and approved - which would be record timing.

 

 

The lack of EU-level guarantee for UK citizens to remain in EU will raise eyebrows.

Commission is asking EU countries to replicate what May is offering at national level for EU citizens in the UK. 

But as far as EU is concerned they will be considered “third country nationals”

 

 

[talahtnut]

9 minutes ago, nontabury said:

 I beleive you are from Norway,so perhaps you would like to comment on this———-

 

A good case for a third referendum.

[tebee]

This is going to be the EU's no deal strategy - temporary equivalence to deal with the worst of the disruption, with tight deadlines to force the UK back to the negotiating table.

 

"Here's the withdrawal agreement for you to sign"

[talahtnut]

4 minutes ago, tebee said:

The European Commission will at noon today publish its preparation plans for no-deal Brexit. Here are some highlights based on early info:

 

1) UK nationals residing in other EU countries will from 29 March no longer have the right to live/work there - in their words, Brits will not be given any special right to stay on the continent. But the Commission will ask member states to prepare national laws to allow them to stay for now, so they’re not immediately expelled.

It’s up to national capitals whether they want to do this

2) The Commission will put in place some sector-specific emergency arrangements, but these will be very limited in time and scope. 

They include emergency arrangements to stop planes from being grounded, and measures for financial services to protect money flows.

 

3) The key thing that will be stressed for all transition arrangements is that they are temporary (will last only until the end of next year) and can be cancelled unilaterally by the EU.

 

4) This proposal will need to be approved by member states and the European Parliament before MEPs leave for election campaigning in March.

That leaves just 2 months for this legislation to be considered and approved - which would be record timing.

 

 

The lack of EU-level guarantee for UK citizens to remain in EU will raise eyebrows.

Commission is asking EU countries to replicate what May is offering at national level for EU citizens in the UK. 

But as far as EU is concerned they will be considered “third country nationals”

 

 

No problem eat your passport and claim asylum.

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, tebee said:

The European Commission will at noon today publish its preparation plans for no-deal Brexit. Here are some highlights based on early info:

 

1) UK nationals residing in other EU countries will from 29 March no longer have the right to live/work there - in their words, Brits will not be given any special right to stay on the continent. But the Commission will ask member states to prepare national laws to allow them to stay for now, so they’re not immediately expelled.

It’s up to national capitals whether they want to do this

2) The Commission will put in place some sector-specific emergency arrangements, but these will be very limited in time and scope. 

They include emergency arrangements to stop planes from being grounded, and measures for financial services to protect money flows.

 

3) The key thing that will be stressed for all transition arrangements is that they are temporary (will last only until the end of next year) and can be cancelled unilaterally by the EU.

 

4) This proposal will need to be approved by member states and the European Parliament before MEPs leave for election campaigning in March.

That leaves just 2 months for this legislation to be considered and approved - which would be record timing.

 

 

The lack of EU-level guarantee for UK citizens to remain in EU will raise eyebrows.

Commission is asking EU countries to replicate what May is offering at national level for EU citizens in the UK. 

But as far as EU is concerned they will be considered “third country nationals”

 

 

I'd like to say 'excellent news' - as it proves the eu's intransigence and this move can only annoy brits. - the vast majority of whom live within the uk, a few having relatives living in the eu.

 

But I hate to see people being used as pawns in the way being promoted by the eu ☹️.

[tebee]

14 minutes ago, nontabury said:

 I beleive you are from Norway,so perhaps you would like to comment on this———-

 

Norway's economic resilience spring from using their North Sea oil revenue sensibly and setting up  a sovereign wealth fund to invest in the country for the future, rather than cutting other taxes and using the oil income to replace them.

 

Of course being in the EEA and Schengen area with free movement helps   - are you suggesting we emulate them ?

[My Thai Life]

17 minutes ago, tebee said:

The lack of EU-level guarantee for UK citizens to remain in EU will raise eyebrows.

Commission is asking EU countries to replicate what May is offering at national level for EU citizens in the UK. 

But as far as EU is concerned they will be considered “third country nationals”

This is an interesting contribution from you Tebee.

 

My immediate reaction is surprise, but a positive surprise at the EU's position.

 

Positive because I hope it sets a precedent for EU member states to be able to agree other issues bilaterally with the UK post Brexit.

Edited December 19, 2018 by My Thai Life

[melvinmelvin]

1 minute ago, nontabury said:

 I beleive you are from Norway,so perhaps you would like to comment on this———-

 

 

Hmm.

I have commented on this several times over the past two years.

I have lived through 2 referenda re joining EEC.

 

History:

 

Norway has had a go at joining 4 times. Every time with the Labour party in the driving seat.

Norway wanted in at the very start in the mid 50s, was shown the door, nobody wanted a piss poor

country that could only contribute herring and electrical power.

 

Late 50s/early 60s, together with UK took the initiative to EFTA.

EFTA was VERY controversial at the time, lots of people strongly opposed to EFTA.

 

Mid/late 60s, another go at joining, together with UK.

The French general didna fancy UK in EEC.

However, he did not have the guts to say no to UK and yes to Norway, so he said no to expansion.

That was the 2nd go.

 

Early 70s (24-25 September 1972). Referendum, advisory.

53.5 % no to join - 46.5 % yes to join - 79.2 % participance

majority of cabinet and parliament was clearly for join

never any great discussion - no is no

The campaigns leading up to the voting WILD WILD WILD WILD

as crap filled as in UK. Friends becoming unfriends - family problems - tough stuff this EEC.

Arma. is nigh if we didna vote yes.

Quite tough call really.

 

After that, before election campaigns start for GEs the political parties talk together re EEC,

and quietly agree that they will NOT make EEC an issue in the campaigns, maybe in 20 years time.

 

Some 3-4 years after the NO, the most respected MSM in Norway made a series of in depth interviews

with industry and finance heavies re armageddon. Mostly couldn't care less, said EEC membership is

preferable but we are doing OK without. Mai pen rai.

 

28th September 1994, new referendum, advisory.

52.2 % NO, 47.8 % YES - 88.6 % participance

Parliament and cabinet all for joining.  No political discussion, no is no.

The campaigning was wild WILD WILD as the first time.

Friend of mine chaired the NO campaign, an ultra brilliant guy (ULTRA), he was convinced that Maastricht

would ruin the Nordic welfare (welfare seen in a wide context) model, and he was keen on legislative control.

 

Shortly after came EEA - which Norway joined.

Fisheries and energy and a couple of more fields are not covered by EEA.

 

Still, many political parties would like to join. Current PM and her "tory" party are keen.

 

The parties continue to discuss and agree on not making EU an issue in GE campaigns.

 

I think I have sensed that over the past 5 years the opposition to EEA has grown.

Partly because some think that giving up sovereignty has gone too far.

And many of the large labour unions are getting more and more critical to EEA.

Why? They are pissed off by Norwegian courts making rulings in labour conflicts,

the employers do not accept the rulings and shift the matters to the EFTA court, and they change the ruling.

They are strong on: EFTA/EU interference in Norwegian labour issues IS NOT DESIRABLE.

 

An important background mural here is that late 60s or 1970 it became

clear that the Norwegian sector in the North Sea basin was filled to the rim with oil.

 

-----------------

 

a personal comment, based on personal experience

after having worked intimately with the Commission for years

not having a formal say in eu matters does not necessarily mean you can not influence policy and acquis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[welovesundaysatspace]

54 minutes ago, nontabury said:

 I beleive you are from Norway,so perhaps you would like to comment on this———-

 

I didn’t know Brexit is about joining the EU. I always thought it’s about leaving the EU. 

[melvinmelvin]

33 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

This is an interesting contribution from you Tebee.

 

My immediate reaction is surprise, but a positive surprise at the EU's position.

 

Positive because I hope it sets a precedent for EU member states to be able to agree other issues bilaterally with the UK post Brexit.

 

and I think that the Commission is handling this adequately,

leaving it to member states to reciprocate what UK offers.

 

[malagateddy]

The European Commission will at noon today publish its preparation plans for no-deal Brexit. Here are some highlights based on early info:
 
1) UK nationals residing in other EU countries will from 29 March no longer have the right to live/work there - in their words, Brits will not be given any special right to stay on the continent. But the Commission will ask member states to prepare national laws to allow them to stay for now, so they’re not immediately expelled.
It’s up to national capitals whether they want to do this

2) The Commission will put in place some sector-specific emergency arrangements, but these will be very limited in time and scope. 
They include emergency arrangements to stop planes from being grounded, and measures for financial services to protect money flows.
 

3) The key thing that will be stressed for all transition arrangements is that they are temporary (will last only until the end of next year) and can be cancelled unilaterally by the EU.
 

4) This proposal will need to be approved by member states and the European Parliament before MEPs leave for election campaigning in March.
That leaves just 2 months for this legislation to be considered and approved - which would be record timing.
 
 

The lack of EU-level guarantee for UK citizens to remain in EU will raise eyebrows.
Commission is asking EU countries to replicate what May is offering at national level for EU citizens in the UK. 
But as far as EU is concerned they will be considered “third country nationals”
 
 

Oh dear..how sad..never mind..well now..don't get mad get even..exactly the same should apply to all eu nationals residing in the UK.
No doubt the UK crime rate will drop when the "east coast " eu nationals depart[emoji6][emoji6][emoji6]

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[malagateddy]

This is going to be the EU's no deal strategy - temporary equivalence to deal with the worst of the disruption, with tight deadlines to force the UK back to the negotiating table.
 
"Here's the withdrawal agreement for you to sign"

BRING IT ON !!!

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[malagateddy]

This is going to be the EU's no deal strategy - temporary equivalence to deal with the worst of the disruption, with tight deadlines to force the UK back to the negotiating table.
 
"Here's the withdrawal agreement for you to sign"

BRING IT ON !!!

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[My Thai Life]

54 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

and I think that the Commission is handling this adequately,

leaving it to member states to reciprocate what UK offers.

If member states had this kind of flexibility on other issues it would be a much more attractive proposition to people like me who are in favour of European integration, but not in favour of an unreformed EU. The Bruegel Group, a Brussels-based thinktank, has published some interesting ideas on reform, but it seems that the EU is impervious to all such ideas.

 

It seems to me that change is happening anyway at the national and grassroots level. Brexit is just the most currently significant example of this.

 

But as for the EU's motivation in "allowing" member states to reciprocate with the UK on expat status - this could just as easily be a recognition that the EU doesn't have the power to control this anyway, as it is an indication of an emerging EU liberalism.

 

Nevertheless I hope it sets a precedent for member states to have more self-determination than they've enjoyed in the past.

Edited December 19, 2018 by My Thai Life

[talahtnut]

22 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

  1 hour ago, tebee said:

This is going to be the EU's no deal strategy - temporary equivalence to deal with the worst of the disruption, with tight deadlines to force the UK back to the negotiating table.
 
"Here's the withdrawal agreement for you to sign"

I agree tebee, that is the mafia style negotiation

favoured by the EU.

When you are in France, do you wear a yellow vest

in support of the people, or do you support the ex-

banker Macron who was installed by the banksters

to promote austerity on behalf of the EU?

 

 

[Kwasaki]

I wonder what BoE will say when told it's a no deal so don't forget to not pay the EU anymore. ????

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, tebee said:

The European Commission will at noon today publish its preparation plans for no-deal Brexit. Here are some highlights based on early info:

 

1) UK nationals residing in other EU countries will from 29 March no longer have the right to live/work there - in their words, Brits will not be given any special right to stay on the continent. But the Commission will ask member states to prepare national laws to allow them to stay for now, so they’re not immediately expelled.

It’s up to national capitals whether they want to do this

2) The Commission will put in place some sector-specific emergency arrangements, but these will be very limited in time and scope. 

They include emergency arrangements to stop planes from being grounded, and measures for financial services to protect money flows.

 

3) The key thing that will be stressed for all transition arrangements is that they are temporary (will last only until the end of next year) and can be cancelled unilaterally by the EU.

 

4) This proposal will need to be approved by member states and the European Parliament before MEPs leave for election campaigning in March.

That leaves just 2 months for this legislation to be considered and approved - which would be record timing.

 

 

The lack of EU-level guarantee for UK citizens to remain in EU will raise eyebrows.

Commission is asking EU countries to replicate what May is offering at national level for EU citizens in the UK. 

But as far as EU is concerned they will be considered “third country nationals”

 

 

in the case of no deal I reckon 1) is adequately addressed by EU, can't really reasonably expect more,

the responsibility for the well being of UKers in EU is in the hands of the UK MFA.

 

2)

is the big issue really, and it goes far beyond UK airlines and UK airports.

cross border transport in general (marine road rail) is affected

cross border transport of narcotics (in medical products)

just to name a few extras

 

another issue that I have not seen mentioned so far;

UKers living/working in EU that have a licenced profession;

drivers (of boats planes vehicles trains)

physicians nurses

am sure there are a bunch more

 

as of April fools day, their ticket issuing agencies will no longer be recognized

can they still work in EU on none recognised tickets?

 

 

 

 

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, My Thai Life said:

If member states had this kind of flexibility on other issues it would be a much more attractive proposition to people like me who are in favour of European integration, but not in favour of an unreformed EU. The Bruegel Group, a Brussels-based thinktank, has published some interesting ideas on reform, but it seems that the EU is impervious to all such ideas.

 

It seems to me that change is happening anyway at the national and grassroots level. Brexit is just the most currently significant example of this.

 

But as for the EU's motivation in "allowing" member states to reciprocate with the UK on expat status - this could just as easily be a recognition that the EU doesn't have the power to control this anyway, as it is an indication of an emerging EU liberalism.

 

Nevertheless I hope it sets a precedent for member states to have more self-determination than they've enjoyed in the past.

"It seems to me that change is happening anyway at the national and grassroots level. Brexit is just the most currently significant example of this."

 

Except change is still not happening....  The eu is showing no intention of reform....

[Kwasaki]

13 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

in the case of no deal I reckon 1) is adequately addressed by EU, can't really reasonably expect more,

the responsibility for the well being of UKers in EU is in the hands of the UK MFA.

 

2)

is the big issue really, and it goes far beyond UK airlines and UK airports.

cross border transport in general (marine road rail) is affected

cross border transport of narcotics (in medical products)

just to name a few extras

 

another issue that I have not seen mentioned so far;

UKers living/working in EU that have a licenced profession;

drivers (of boats planes vehicles trains)

physicians nurses

am sure there are a bunch more

 

as of April fools day, their ticket issuing agencies will no longer be recognized

can they still work in EU on none recognised tickets?

 

Don't anyone look to a new future when UK gets out the EU will collapse, don't anyone notice the problems that are happening in the EU,  go back to letting every EU country rule itself and let them sort their own problems out most of them are a bunch of losers anyway, it's not time for a StarTrek system yet. ????

[talahtnut]

7 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

in the case of no deal I reckon 1) is adequately addressed by EU, can't really reasonably expect more,

the responsibility for the well being of UKers in EU is in the hands of the UK MFA.

 

2)

is the big issue really, and it goes far beyond UK airlines and UK airports.

cross border transport in general (marine road rail) is affected

cross border transport of narcotics (in medical products)

just to name a few extras

 

another issue that I have not seen mentioned so far;

UKers living/working in EU that have a licenced profession;

drivers (of boats planes vehicles trains)

physicians nurses

am sure there are a bunch more

 

as of April fools day, their ticket issuing agencies will no longer be recognized

can they still work in EU on none recognised tickets?

 

 

 

 

Yeah, daft scary rubbish, the UK could simply retaliate

tit for tat [pardon the expression] and even dump one

million illegal immigrants on 'em for good measure.

 

[My Thai Life]

16 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

"It seems to me that change is happening anyway at the national and grassroots level. Brexit is just the most currently significant example of this."

 

Except change is still not happening....  The eu is showing no intention of reform....

Agreed, the EU bureaucracy isn't changing, but the ground is moving under their feet: civil unrest, Macron's "progressive" vision for  accelerated ever-closer union in tatters, nationalist politics emerging in many member states, the erosion of the centre in German politics, Italy's insurrection. With the end of quantitave easing this month the economic problems inherent in the EURO could resurface in an explosive way, even according to the IMF. And then Brexit.

 

Without reform it's possible that the EU won't survive.

 

I believe that an integrated Europe is potentially a positive influence in the world, but the major concerns of the EU are still centred around economic protectionism.

 

 

[tomacht8]

Is the UK also present after Brexit?
Brussels. The EU ban on plastic plates, drinking straws and other disposable plastic products is sealed. Negotiators from the European Parliament and the EU states agreed on details on Wednesday morning in Brussels, as the Austrian presidency announced.In May, the European Commission proposed banning disposable crockery, straws, cotton swabs and other disposable plastic items. EU countries and the European Parliament adopted the proposals with slight changes. The aim of the previous round of negotiations is a compromise between the three institutions.

[Chomper Higgot]

26 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

Don't anyone look to a new future when UK gets out the EU will collapse, don't anyone notice the problems that are happening in the EU,  go back to letting every EU country rule itself and let them sort their own problems out most of them are a bunch of losers anyway, it's not time for a StarTrek system yet. ????

All the EU nations do ‘rule themselves’.

[Chomper Higgot]

7 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Agreed, the EU bureaucracy isn't changing, but the ground is moving under their feet: civil unrest, Macron's "progressive" vision for  accelerated ever-closer union in tatters, nationalist politics emerging in many member states, the erosion of the centre in German politics, Italy's insurrection. With the end of quantitave easing this month the economic problems inherent in the EURO could resurface in an explosive way, even according to the IMF. And then Brexit.

 

Without reform it's possible that the EU won't survive.

 

I believe that an integrated Europe is potentially a positive influence in the world, but the major concerns of the EU are still centred around economic protectionism.

 

 

I like the way Brexiteers apply simplistic (pro-Brexit/Anti-EU) explanations to complex issues within other EU nations.

 

’How can we explain something we don’t understand in a way supportive to our own point of view’?

[dick dasterdly]

9 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Agreed, the EU bureaucracy isn't changing, but the ground is moving under their feet: civil unrest, Macron's "progressive" vision for  accelerated ever-closer union in tatters, nationalist politics emerging in many member states, the erosion of the centre in German politics, Italy's insurrection. With the end of quantitave easing this month the economic problems inherent in the EURO could resurface in an explosive way, even according to the IMF. And then Brexit.

 

Without reform it's possible that the EU won't survive.

 

I believe that an integrated Europe is potentially a positive influence in the world, but the major concerns of the EU are still centred around economic protectionism.

 

 

I agree to a certain extent, as I like some aspects of the eu.

 

But as long as the politicians and bureaucrats are determined that reform is not on the agenda - they have to be FORCED into reform or breakdown ☹️.

 

Hasten to add, that I do not want to see the eu break down, as it would result in even more instability.  BUT, if the bureaucrats and politicians refuse to let go of their overpaid positions and determination to pursue this (and their control) even further - then it's bound to happen IMO....

 

Edit - and like politicians everywhere, eu politicians are only really concerned about their own power and wealth, not economic protectionism - unless it supports their own power and wealth.....

 

We've seen it time and time again with so many politicians....

Edited December 19, 2018 by dick dasterdly

[Chomper Higgot]

10 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

I agree to a certain extent, as I like some aspects of the eu.

 

But as long as the politicians and bureaucrats are determined that reform is not on the agenda - they have to be FORCED into reform or breakdown ☹️.

 

Hasten to add, that I do not want to see the eu break down, as it would result in even more instability.  BUT, if the bureaucrats and politicians refuse to let go of their overpaid positions and determination to pursue this (and their control) even further - then it's bound to happen IMO....

 

Edit - and like politicians everywhere, eu politicians are only really concerned about their own power and wealth, not economic protectionism - unless it supports their own power and wealth.....

 

We've seen it time and time again with so many politicians....

You do understand not everyone shares your point of view, don’t you?

 

And if they don’t then you should consider the EU may not be ‘FORCED’ to do anything.

[damascase]

2 hours ago, tebee said:

The European Commission will at noon today publish its preparation plans for no-deal Brexit. Here are some highlights based on early info:

 

1) UK nationals residing in other EU countries will from 29 March no longer have the right to live/work there - in their words, Brits will not be given any special right to stay on the continent. But the Commission will ask member states to prepare national laws to allow them to stay for now, so they’re not immediately expelled.

It’s up to national capitals whether they want to do this

2) The Commission will put in place some sector-specific emergency arrangements, but these will be very limited in time and scope. 

They include emergency arrangements to stop planes from being grounded, and measures for financial services to protect money flows.

 

3) The key thing that will be stressed for all transition arrangements is that they are temporary (will last only until the end of next year) and can be cancelled unilaterally by the EU.

 

4) This proposal will need to be approved by member states and the European Parliament before MEPs leave for election campaigning in March.

That leaves just 2 months for this legislation to be considered and approved - which would be record timing.

 

 

The lack of EU-level guarantee for UK citizens to remain in EU will raise eyebrows.

Commission is asking EU countries to replicate what May is offering at national level for EU citizens in the UK. 

But as far as EU is concerned they will be considered “third country nationals”

 

 

This one.?

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/contingency-qanda_en.pdf

[My Thai Life]

38 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I like the way Brexiteers apply simplistic (pro-Brexit/Anti-EU) explanations to complex issues within other EU nations.

 

’How can we explain something we don’t understand in a way supportive to our own point of view’?

I'll let the Brexiters speak for themselves. They seem to be quite good at it, and they have the advantage of democracy on their side.

 

But as for myself, I've worked in most European nations inside and outside of the EU, and I'm a citizen of two EU nations. So yes I have a huge amount of personal experience and knowledge of Europe, and I'm strongly pro-European.