Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[sandyf]

12 hours ago, Jack100 said:

Er not quite ,  on 1 /1 2000  I said the  same thing to a friend who worked on the bug , all a  fuss about nothing etc  - actually his reply was  - there was a problem and thousands of people worked for years  on it and fixed it  !

 

This is the Exact  opposite - there was no real threat to jobs and the economy but there is now  but NOBODY is working on it because they don't know how to fix it !

I also worked on the "bug", it was only business as usual because corrective action was taken. I knew of several companies that put their head in the sand and suffered significantly, but of little interest to the media.

Second statement is spot on.

[sandyf]

17 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

My post was not about the withdrawal agreement, it was about German industry concerns for no deal.

Of course your post was about the withdrawal agreement, its the only thing on the table.

[Henryford]

Just now, sandyf said:

Of course your post was about the withdrawal agreement, its the only thing on the table.

No deal is on the table as it's the default option already approved by Parliament.

[My Thai Life]

12 hours ago, Jack100 said:

Er not quite ,  on 1 /1 2000  I said the  same thing to a friend who worked on the bug , all a  fuss about nothing etc  - actually his reply was  - there was a problem and thousands of people worked for years  on it and fixed it  !

 

This is the Exact  opposite - there was no real threat to jobs and the economy but there is now  but NOBODY is working on it because they don't know how to fix it !

Actually Y2K presented a very real threat to the economy, as most banking, financial and air-transport systems at that time were riddled with Y2K issues. I managed several large-scale projects to fix Y2K problems. Although it was an extensive problem It was essentially simple, deterministic and technical.

 

Brexit is not simple nor deterministic nor technical, though the EU bureaucrats would like to persuade you it's a simple technical matter of following rules.

 

Re your second paragraph, many people in many countries have been working on the Brexit "problem" for some time. And now there is a growing range of options and mitigations in place.

[sandyf]

17 hours ago, tebee said:

There will be less exports to the UK, but equally there will be less exports from the UK - the consumers that would have bought them will still need to buy from somewhere.

 

Quite, simple reality. In the post brexit world, "Product of the EU" will have a completely different context.

[melvinmelvin]

15 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Thanks for your reply Tebee, If you don't mind me saying so I think it's the best piece of reasoning I've seen you employ to date.

 

I think most of us are aware of the "asymmetrical" argument, because the remain-leaning MSM has never let us forget it.

 

Also, I think you exaggerate the idea that the rules are the rules and must be applied. There is no precedent for Brexit, and A50 clearly is not fit for purpose. In this situation there are major gaps in the rules. And as ever, rules are open to interpretation.

 

I agree with Ivan Rogers that the EU has out-negotiated May's representatives at every step. But this has led us to the Withdrawal Agreement, which is so one-sided in favour of the EU that it will never pass. Yes it shows the UK team to be inept (or maybe it would be more accurate to say that the UK negotiation team is comprised of remainers who have no interest in leaving), but it also shows the EU team to be acting in less than good faith, and I think this has probably hardened a lot of opinion against the EU.

 

Be all that as it may, we are now in a situation where the Withdrawal Agreement will not pass, leading most likely to a no-deal. This could take 3 forms – managed, mitigated or immediate 3^rd country status. At this point I’d like to go back to my OP:

 

Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), warns that “Brexit threatens massive consequences for the German economy…We must be clear what this is all about. More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

 

I don’t think he’ll be impressed with the “don’t worry, it’s asymmetrical” argument.

 

the German chap might not be impressed,

but what can he do? note that the decision makers here are PMs/Headsofstates

he hardly has access to these, maybe - a remote chance of seeing Merkel on a good day

 

and these people are fairly immune to lobby activities from some chap in Germany with special interests

 

 

[evadgib]

11 hours ago, billd766 said:

I wonder if Grouse has seen that link?

 

Pat Condell never raised his voice, never ranted and raved and IMHO came over reasonably but then again I voted to leave.

He has but hasn't yet seen this:

 

[My Thai Life]

6 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

the German chap might not be impressed,

but what can he do? note that the decision makers here are PMs/Headsofstates

he hardly has access to these, maybe - a remote chance of seeing Merkel on a good day

 

and these people are fairly immune to lobby activities from some chap in Germany with special interests

The realpolitik of the EU is that it was set up to protect German industry and French farming, and those principles are still in operation. Given your background I'm sure you know this as well as I do.

 

German Auto Inc successfully co-opted Merkel on emissions and influenced EU emissions policy (easily googleable), and I doubt that they'll let Brussels bureaucrats decimate their industry via a politically motivated punitive Brexit when there are plenty of more co-operative possibilities.

 

[sandyf]

21 minutes ago, Henryford said:

No deal is on the table as it's the default option already approved by Parliament.

If you are saying there is currently EU/UK negotiations taking place on a "No Deal Agreement" then I will stand corrected.

 

You should remember that the original point was in respect of influencing the EU so the "table" was the one between the EU and UK, not as you have tried to make out, in parliament.

[melvinmelvin]

6 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

The realpolitik of the EU is that it was set up to protect German industry and French farming, and those principles are still in operation. Given your background I'm sure you know this as well as I do.

 

German Auto Inc successfully co-opted Merkel on emissions and influenced EU emissions policy (easily googleable), and I doubt that they'll let Brussels bureaucrats decimate their industry via a politically motivated punitive Brexit when there are plenty of more co-operative possibilities.

 

 

no problem with that,

 

but we are now dealing with the withdrawal

bending/massaging issues close to deal/cover - I doubt that the high level meeting will leave

this to  be sorted by Juncker without strict guidance

 

[sandyf]

48 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), warns that “Brexit threatens massive consequences for the German economy…We must be clear what this is all about. More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

Someone else taking lessons from brexiteers.

In any form of post brexit world, people in the UK that want to buy a German car will accept the new price and carry on, imports from Germany are not going to stop. There may be a drop in sales but that is business and it is up to individual companies to find new customers, nothing whatsoever to do with Brussels.

There is a far greater chance of the Japanese manufacturers running down their operations in the UK than the Germans being severely affected.

[evadgib]

No deal? no problem ????

 

[My Thai Life]

17 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Someone else taking lessons from brexiteers.

In any form of post brexit world, people in the UK that want to buy a German car will accept the new price and carry on, imports from Germany are not going to stop. There may be a drop in sales but that is business and it is up to individual companies to find new customers, nothing whatsoever to do with Brussels.

There is a far greater chance of the Japanese manufacturers running down their operations in the UK than the Germans being severely affected.

Something tells me that Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), knows a bit more about his business than you do, and he is clear:

 

“Brexit threatens massive consequences for the German economy…We must be clear what this is all about. More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

 

As for your comment about "nothing whatsoever to do with Brussels". That's great, so you have inside information that the EU is going to be dissolved and Brussels will no longer have anything to do with trade policy - fantastic!

 

The reality is that we are still far from agreement on what will happen with trade after March 29 2019. At one extreme there is May's WA which preserves the Customs Union, at the other extreme there is immediate 3rd country status. The most likely outcome is somewhere in the middle.

 

And the most powerful lobby group in the EU (German Auto Inc) will do everything it can to influence the outcome. Actually it already has hasn't it - along with the CBI it played a huge role in pushing towards May's WA. But this has backfired spectacularly, as it will not pass. This is why Eric Schweitzer has returned to the fray.

Edited December 21, 2018 by My Thai Life

[malagateddy]

...and again [emoji41] Shall I try for the hat trick?
[/url]  

Excellent..wonderful [emoji6][emoji3][emoji6]

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[malagateddy]

...and again [emoji41] Shall I try for the hat trick?
[/url]  

Wonderful..excellent stuff

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[malagateddy]

...and again [emoji41] Shall I try for the hat trick?
[/url]  

Wonderful..excellent stuff

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[malagateddy]

...and again [emoji41] Shall I try for the hat trick?
[/url]  

Wonderful..excellent stuff

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[talahtnut]

5 hours ago, bomber said:

thing is it wont take much for the UK to fail and fall into recession 2 days of snow and it registers a blip,the seeds are all set,barely any growth,battered currency,companies queing up to leave (yes some are bluffing but many are not) JC and Labour ready to stroll into power,massive govt and household debt,basically its about donald ducked,more chance of quasimodo pulling a stunner than Britain getting better with brexit

Now you have given me the donald trump.

You are right considering the fragile state of

the UK economy, it has been in decline for ages,

in or out of the EU the decline will continue,

be aware that Greece is the EMF economic

model for the EU future.

Out of the EU we could consider adopting

the Chinese economic system.

Stick the finger to the EU and US.

Meanwhile eradicating the deep state community

and their puppet UK gov.

Replacing it with an honest democratic government

of people for the people.

[mfd101]

One thing we can be fairly sure of is that the Just in Time concept for modern manufacturing & distribution is about to get a MASSIVE test & tryout.

 

An excellent chance to prepare the Brits for other upcoming catastrophes over the next couple of decades (ie on the ecological & Eastern Fronts).

[Jip99]

15 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

more remainer scare mongering ,like the year 2000 bug when all PCs were going to fail ,but it was business as usual and no PCs dropped dead..

 

 

I always think that your forum name would benefit from another ‘S’ on the end...  ????????

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, evadgib said:

No deal? no problem ????

 

 

interesting if Azevedo said that,

Azevedo has also said that it is unlikely that UK's schedule/profile

will be sorted by Brexit day

 

[welovesundaysatspace]

2 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

Something tells me that Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), knows a bit more about his business than you do, and he is clear:

 

“Brexit threatens massive consequences for the German economy…We must be clear what this is all about. More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

 

As for your comment about "nothing whatsoever to do with Brussels". That's great, so you have inside information that the EU is going to be dissolved and Brussels will no longer have anything to do with trade policy - fantastic!

 

The reality is that we are still far from agreement on what will happen with trade after March 29 2019. At one extreme there is May's WA which preserves the Customs Union, at the other extreme there is immediate 3rd country status. The most likely outcome is somewhere in the middle.

 

And the most powerful lobby group in the EU (German Auto Inc) will do everything it can to influence the outcome. Actually it already has hasn't it - along with the CBI it played a huge role in pushing towards May's WA. But this has backfired spectacularly, as it will not pass. This is why Eric Schweitzer has returned to the fray.

Surprise, so finally Brexiteers are listening to what experts have to say? Maybe you should do it for your own economy as well.  

[anon676545345]

1 hour ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Surprise, so finally Brexiteers are listening to what experts have to say? Maybe you should do it for your own economy as well.  

 

We listen to 'experts' we just don't listen to the paid shills the BBC wheel out day in day out

[sandyf]

4 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

Something tells me that Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), knows a bit more about his business than you do, and he is clear:

 

“Brexit threatens massive consequences for the German economy…We must be clear what this is all about. More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

 

That is a bit rich. If the UK Chamber of Commerce said the same thing all you brexiteers would be shouting Project Fear.

[sandyf]

3 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

interesting if Azevedo said that,

Azevedo has also said that it is unlikely that UK's schedule/profile

will be sorted by Brexit day

 

Update to previous response, on 24th July UK submitted a draft schedule which I realise now was just for goods. On 3rd December the UK submitted another draft schedule for services(again as the EU) and members have 45 days to raise objections.

Your comment about a schedule being submitted late in the year was perfectly valid, apologies.

Norman Lamont seems to be a bit confused.

 

The head of the World Trade Organization said the U.K. risks trade disruption in the event of a no-deal Brexit because it is “very unlikely” to have agreed tariffs and quotas with the other WTO members in time.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-24/wto-warns-u-k-faces-difficult-shift-to-bloc-s-rules-post-brexit

 

[melvinmelvin]

18 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Update to previous response, on 24th July UK submitted a draft schedule which I realise now was just for goods. On 3rd December the UK submitted another draft schedule for services(again as the EU) and members have 45 days to raise objections.

Your comment about a schedule being submitted late in the year was perfectly valid, apologies.

Norman Lamont seems to be a bit confused.

 

The head of the World Trade Organization said the U.K. risks trade disruption in the event of a no-deal Brexit because it is “very unlikely” to have agreed tariffs and quotas with the other WTO members in time.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-24/wto-warns-u-k-faces-difficult-shift-to-bloc-s-rules-post-brexit

 

at any rate, as we say in Yorkshire,

 

a shame that UK gov didn't start to sort their WTO stuff right after a50 was triggered

 

 

[My Thai Life]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

That is a bit rich. If the UK Chamber of Commerce said the same thing all you brexiteers would be shouting Project Fear.

Not really Sandy, Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry, is saying something very very specific: "More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

 

Project fear is usually based on much more general speculation, which is mis-represented as fact. Read the OP for this thread as a good example: a BoE worst case scenario mis-represented as a forecast.

 

Something else needs to be said in this context, which I haven't yet seen expressed on this forum (though I may have missed it). When a sovereign nation is faced with economic challenges it can respond quickly. When it is part of a 28 nation trading bloc it is hampered by a slow moving rule-bound bureaucratic juggernaut whose interests are not necessarily aligned with its own.

 

Edited December 21, 2018 by My Thai Life

[tebee]

41 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Not really Sandy, Eric Schweitzer, head of the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry, is saying something very very specific: "More than 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on exports to Great Britain.”

 

Project fear is usually based on much more general speculation, which is mis-represented as fact. Read the OP for this thread as a good example: a BoE worst case scenario mis-represented as a forecast.

 

Something else needs to be said in this context, which I haven't yet seen expressed on this forum (though I may have missed it). When a sovereign nation is faced with economic challenges it can respond quickly. When it is part of a 28 nation trading bloc it is hampered by a slow moving rule-bound bureaucratic juggernaut whose interests are not necessarily aligned with its own.

 

British Chamber of commerce is not happy either 

 

https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2018/12/british-business-says-no-to-no-deal-in-100-days-time

 

“Businesses have been watching in horror as politicians have focused on factional disputes rather than practical steps that business needs to move forward, the lack of progress in Westminster means that the risk of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit is rising. Businesses of all sizes are reaching the point of no return, with many now putting in place contingency plans that are a significant drain of time and money. Firms are pausing or diverting investment that should be boosting productivity, innovation, jobs and pay, into stockpiling goods or materials, diverting cross border trade and moving offices, factories and therefore jobs and tax revenues out of the UK.

 

Will the UK government listen? 

[nontabury]

11 hours ago, bomber said:

you must live in a different UK to me,employment rights have improved hugely in the last 10 years as has the minimum wage,doctors a wait but your seen to if urgent,buses and transport are good in most area's,none of the things your moaning about are EU instigated and what you have now you are risking with brexit and the soon to be PM the great comrade corbyn,those bankers will come in handy when he visits them to borrow more money and bankrupt the country even further.

 

 Well I certainly live in a different U.K to you.

A U.K where employment rights have been eroded, where minimum wages are offered @ £7.83 hr. Many jobs avertised for 4hrs a WEEK. Those lucky to find employment for 36hrs will receive the princely sum of £281 per week, £1200 mth, less statutory deductions. 

They then have to find accommodation, in a market that is dominated by the corrupt and greedy,private rental sector. Paying a rent of perhaps £700-1,000 per month,which unless there are two breadwinners in the household, results in the tax payer,paying benifits.

An appointment with a G.P could entail a Waite of 25 days.

Of course this is not all down to the E.U. But do try,not to spin the current situation into the benifits of the being part of this so called Union.

[tebee]

5 minutes ago, nontabury said:

 

 Well I certainly live in a different U.K to you.

A U.K where employment rights have been eroded, where minimum wages are offered @ £7.83 hr. Many jobs avertised for 4hrs a WEEK. Those lucky to find employment for 36hrs will receive the princely sum of £281 per week, £1200 mth, less statutory deductions. 

They then have to find accommodation, in a market that is dominated by the corrupt and greedy,private rental sector. Paying a rent of perhaps £700-1,000 per month,which unless there are two breadwinners in the household, results in the tax payer,paying benifits.

An appointment with a G.P could entail a Waite of 25 days.

Of course this is not all down to the E.U. But do try,not to spin the current situation into the benifits of the being part of this so called Union.

None of that is down to the EU. Zero and low hours contracts are banned in most counties.

 

House prices and rents are caused by our British obsession with using our homes as an investment vehicle. We have staved socal housing funds, leading to the rise of the buy-to-let market to fill the gap. Rising house prices, good for those who own their house ( now primarily elderly in the UK 43% of houses are owned by the 65+ age bracket) and the owners of BTL houses, but bad for those who need to rent. This is naked capitalism at work.

 

The neoliberal obsession with privatization has increased costs for everyone, while diverting public funds to rich capitalists.

 

You voted for this I'm afraid. The Tory press have sort to blame other for the UK woes and enough of you believed them to keep voting the Tories back into power.  You now reap the "benefits" of doing this.    You have no one to blame but yourselves. 

 

Now brexit comes along - you want to give unfettered power  to those same tories  without any limitations imposed by EU membership. But you somehow think this will be "better" There is no hope for the future UK. Scotland needs it's independence soon.