After delaying Brexit vote, May looks set to face leadership challenge

[mommysboy]

27 minutes ago, Basil B said:

I am sure Sir Graham Brady has got more than 48 letters calling for a confidence vote in the party leader.

 

I think tomorrow (Thursday) she will call a meeting of all all Tory MP,s, to thrash out a way forward, most Tory MP's understand she has the best deal she is going to get from the EU and the mess is not of her making.  

 

The consensus of the meeting will be no point in putting the EU offer to the commons as it will be defeated, their is nothing that parliament will agree on and the only way forward would be a peoples vote.

 

TM will retain the support of of over 157 of her MP's some of the letters will be withdrawn and the confidence vote will be cancelled.

 

If as I assume the "Hard Brexiteers" Mogg And Johnson, etc, number well less than 50 if the peoples vote contains a "remain" option then she will have the support of the LibDems, SNP, (Sturgeon was on the radio yesterday calling for remain so you might say she has nailed her knickers to the mast) and all the other minor parties represented at parliament except Labour who will oppose it I doubt will be able to get anything like 200 MP's through the opposition lobby with many locking themselves in the toilets  to prevent the party bully boys manhandling them through the lobby) when the division bell rings,   and even some voting with the government.

 

The big issue is how do we stop the clock ticking while we run another referendum??? I doubt there is any legal way to do this under the currant EU constitution or rules.

Extend/Revoke Article 50.  

[mommysboy]

6 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Hopefully we get the 48 votes today. Then I would like this....

 

1. She loses the vote, triggering a leadership election.

2. We get a leaver PM (hopefully Rees-Mogg but Davis or Raab would be OK)

3. We tell the EU we don't want their lopsided deal and they aren't getting 39 billion. If they want a hard border with NI they can create it and police it themselves. Good luck with that!

4. We leave on WTO terms at the end of March.

5. We use the 39 Billion to ease the short term issues in the UK.

6. Once the short term issues have eased (around July 2019) we tell the EU they can have a trade deal with us if they want it and they don't have to pay us even though we have a trade deficit with them. They can think of it as a goodwill gesture to ease their pain as the EU starts falling apart over the next decade.

7. Throw in a free bottle of whisky and a pair of matching shoes for Juncker as a sweetener.

 

Happy Days...

 

Seriously, I like thinking outside the box.

 

It may be all we've got.

 

Where I will not criticise UK Govt- they were keen on a reasonable free trade deal, and all overtures were spurned.

[Basil B]

5 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Extend/Revoke Article 50.  

Major said Revoke, could revoke and resubmit but that just means another two year before we could leave if Mays proposal was accepted, or we were going to leave on any other terms.

 

I am assuming extend is not an option provided for, also we will have no representation in the EU Parliament when our currant MEP's time in office runs out.

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, mommysboy said:

Seriously, I like thinking outside the box.

 

It may be all we've got.

 

Where I will not criticise UK Govt- they were keen on a reasonable free trade deal, and all overtures were spurned.

As far as I can see the brit. politicians made no attempt at all to put a reasonable free trade agreement at the top of the agenda!

[vogie]

2 hours ago, Nigel Garvie said:

Well it is hardly ignorant or thoughtless, candid certainly, and blunt also, but what it is all about now is not what the vote said two years ago, but what can actually be achieved. Realism, pragmatism, and the ability to compromise are the necessary qualities our leaders need to show to get us out of this bloody mess. It has to be blindingly obvious to Leavers and Remainers alike that we have totally fuc##d up. I'm hardly getting 40Bhat to the pound. 

We have to face the FACT that there is no parliamentary majority for:-

May's plan

A Hard Brexit

A general election

A second referendum

Norway +    or Whatever.

In this situation what is the point of attempting to replace May with any of the totally inadequate alternatives. It is just moving deckchairs on the Titanic. Worse it is a total slap in the face to all the people of the UK that the Tories have forgotten their responsibilities to them, and have retreated into an orgy of navel gazing. What is the answer now? I've no idea.

However there is one thing for sure there are virtually no simple answers to really complex problems. I hope that I don't have to read any more of the brain dead drivel on here that cheerily announces that "We just leave" or similar nonsense.

If you dont want to read other peoples opinions I suggest you don't read this forum, because thats all they are, opinions. Your opinion is no greater than anyone elses, although remainers will have us/want us to believe that they are somewhat superior to the rest of of us. May, yes has made a mess of the negotiations, but afteral she is a remainer. We all know the minority is trying to upturn the referendum result right from the start, they have shown no solidarity or even any loyalty to their country and have done nothing but whinge for 2 years, well guess what, we are sick of listening to them too.

BTW I am truly sorry that you are only getting 40 baht to the £, but brexit has not only been about you.

[Prissana Pescud]

2 hours ago, mrmicbkktxl said:

Yeah good idea,but what if the EU will not bend over for a deal?This is not a poker game.

How about, just leave. No deals with EU, the vote was to quit from sponging EU.

When Britain gets rid of the cancer that is EU, the rest of the world will be more than willing to create trade with GB.

The world is bigger than the EU.  

When can you realise that EU needs Britain, not the other way around?

When will you realise that EU is almost in freefall. The total debt of all the dud countries in the EU is out of control?

When will you realise that many EU citizens are dying for the silly migration policies that an unelected EU imposes on all Europe?

When will EU create some border control for non EU citizens?

When will you realise that a passport is valuable? When will you realise that cheap labour can be obtained from other countries other than EU?

When can you understand that it is EU that is playing poker? They need some country to help pay off all the debt that EU owes. EU needs Britain.

Britain has never needed EU. 

 

 

[Burma Bill]

With due respect to the USA 3M company - May, Merkel and Macron possibly on their way out! 

[mrmicbkktxl]

19 minutes ago, Prissana Pescud said:

How about, just leave. No deals with EU, the vote was to quit from sponging EU.

When Britain gets rid of the cancer that is EU, the rest of the world will be more than willing to create trade with GB.

The world is bigger than the EU.  

When can you realise that EU needs Britain, not the other way around?

When will you realise that EU is almost in freefall. The total debt of all the dud countries in the EU is out of control?

When will you realise that many EU citizens are dying for the silly migration policies that an unelected EU imposes on all Europe?

When will EU create some border control for non EU citizens?

When will you realise that a passport is valuable? When will you realise that cheap labour can be obtained from other countries other than EU?

When can you understand that it is EU that is playing poker? They need some country to help pay off all the debt that EU owes. EU needs Britain.

Britain has never needed EU. 

 

 

You are right 95%,but in my opinion they will not run behind the UK even if they need to do,because if they do, other members will follow the UK.You complain about cheap labour from the EU but in the same sentence you are saying you can obtain them from other countries.From where?Anyways i think that whole referendum should be declared invalid.First of all nobody knew actually what he was voting for,and second I think 52-48% is not enough to decide about a subject with this magnitude,maybe if 75% of the people vote for go or stay then its the real deal.Like that half of the population is not happy and it's hard to accept the outcome

[mfd101]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

5. We use the 39 Billion to ease the short term issues in the UK.

I don't think the 39B is sitting in a savings account waiting for the next PM to come in & sign a withdrawal slip!

[david555]

Breaking news on Sky news , 48 letters arrived at sir Brady

[mfd101]

Today's 'Australian' (what would they know?) has Sajid Javid running for PM.

 

Wouldn't that be fun? On no! said the Brexiteers, We didn't get rid of the Polish plumbers for THIS!

[Prissana Pescud]

19 minutes ago, mrmicbkktxl said:

You are right 95%,but in my opinion they will not run behind the UK even if they need to do,because if they do, other members will follow the UK.You complain about cheap labour from the EU but in the same sentence you are saying you can obtain them from other countries.From where?Anyways i think that whole referendum should be declared invalid.First of all nobody knew actually what he was voting for,and second I think 52-48% is not enough to decide about a subject with this magnitude,maybe if 75% of the people vote for go or stay then its the real deal.Like that half of the population is not happy and it's hard to accept the outcome

Britain can afford to leave EU. Most of the debt ridden countries cannot afford to leave, they are still waiting for a bailout from Germany, Britain and Scandinavia.

When Britain leaves, it may well trigger a collapse. But not by the sponging countries.

It will be by other countries that wonder who is going to pay all the debt.

Germany created most of the debt. Let Germany pay it off. (it was Germany that gave credit to basket case countries, it was Germany that begged every illegal migrant to flood Europe) Sponger countries cannot afford to leave EU.

Belgium, France, Greece, Italy and many eastern European countries have lost control of the population and it can only get worse.

[mrmicbkktxl]

3 minutes ago, Prissana Pescud said:

Britain can afford to leave EU. Most of the debt ridden countries cannot afford to leave, they are still waiting for a bailout from Germany, Britain and Scandinavia.

When Britain leaves, it may well trigger a collapse. But not by the sponging countries.

It will be by other countries that wonder who is going to pay all the debt.

Germany created most of the debt. Let Germany pay it off. (it was Germany that gave credit to basket case countries, it was Germany that begged every illegal migrant to flood Europe) Sponger countries cannot afford to leave EU.

Belgium, France, Greece, Italy and many eastern European countries have lost control of the population and it can only get worse.

I like the UK  to stay but I  guess it's the right thing if they leave and also I'm really curious what will happen in the future if they leave

[webfact]

UPDATE:

 

UK PM May's lawmakers trigger confidence vote in her leadership

By Kylie MacLellan and Guy Faulconbridge

 

Anti-Brexit protestor Steve Bray holds placards outside of the Houses of Parliament, in London, Britain, December 10, 2018. REUTERS/Toby Melville/Files

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Lawmakers in British Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative Party on Wednesday triggered a confidence vote in her leadership after Britain's planned divorce from the European Union was plunged into chaos.

 

Full story: https://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/1072804-uk-pm-mays-lawmakers-trigger-confidence-vote-in-her-leadership/

[nauseus]

Well they are finally having a go at her.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46535739

[Basil B]

 

Voting today 18:00 to 20:00

[dunroaming]

This is not a done deal by any means.  May has a reasonable chance of surviving this and then what?  

[nontabury]

7 hours ago, tebee said:

Tm's views before the referendum 

 

 

 

This has been the problem all along. The Conservative establishment in the form of remain supporting Conservative M.P’s elected a Remainer to negotiate the people’s Democratic vote to leave the hated E.u.

It was never going to work,it’s like getting into a taxi, and instructing the taxi driver,who does’t know how to drive, to take you to a part of a large city, that he does’t know. 

 The result is that we are two years down the road, with very little planning, for what the people wanted.

[nontabury]

4 hours ago, Basil B said:

It is just a few of them now.

Just shouting louder and louder to hide the fact that they are loosing support...

They are scared stiff of a peoples vote, they know the leave vote was a fluke, many of those 17.4 were making a protest vote, they thought remain was going to win by a mile...

 

I wish you would stop referring to a re-run of the 2016 referendum, as a people’s vote, as that is what actually took place in 2016. What you should call your demand, is a LOSERS vote.

 

 

 

[nontabury]

1 hour ago, mfd101 said:

Today's 'Australian' (what would they know?) has Sajid Javid running for PM.

 

Wouldn't that be fun? On no! said the Brexiteers, We didn't get rid of the Polish plumbers for THIS!

What a racist post. Personally as a staunch remainer, I would be quite happy for Sajid Javid to become our P.M.

[mfd101]

3 minutes ago, nontabury said:

What a racist post. Personally as a staunch remainer, I would be quite happy for Sajid Javid to become our P.M.

Ever heard of irony?

[Kadilo]

“Strong and stable” ????

 

Just heard her speech outside No.10. Its like she she has had nothing to do with it. Her sheer arrogance is unreal. 

[dunroaming]

48 minutes ago, nontabury said:

 

This has been the problem all along. The Conservative establishment in the form of remain supporting Conservative M.P’s elected a Remainer to negotiate the people’s Democratic vote to leave the hated E.u.

It was never going to work,it’s like getting into a taxi, and instructing the taxi driver,who does’t know how to drive, to take you to a part of a large city, that he does’t know. 

 The result is that we are two years down the road, with very little planning, for what the people wanted.

Yes it was very odd.  The Brexit campaigners who were perfectly placed to step up for the PM post after Brexit chose to run away and then actually backed May for the position.  Why would they do that?  I think that May saw the opportunity (probably the only one) to get to be PM and took it.  As sure as eggs is eggs she must be regretting that today.  Many realised that it was a poisoned chalice and she was always doomed to failure trying to deliver a Brexit that had been pitched based on lies and fantasies.

 

Now the chickens come home to roost (never really understood that one) and we are in utter chaos.

 

I think she may well survive this vote of no confidence because there is nobody else who can make a better job of it and many of the MP's realise that.

[bkkcanuck8]

4 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

Yes it was very odd.  The Brexit campaigners who were perfectly placed to step up for the PM post after Brexit chose to run away and then actually backed May for the position.  Why would they do that?  I think that May saw the opportunity (probably the only one) to get to be PM and took it.  As sure as eggs is eggs she must be regretting that today.  Many realised that it was a poisoned chalice and she was always doomed to failure trying to deliver a Brexit that had been pitched based on lies and fantasies.

 

Now the chickens come home to roost (never really understood that one) and we are in utter chaos.

 

I think she may well survive this vote of no confidence because there is nobody else who can make a better job of it and many of the MP's realise that.

That would be disappointing -- I want mop head next...

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, nontabury said:

I wish you would stop referring to a re-run of the 2016 referendum, as a people’s vote, as that is what actually took place in 2016. What you should call your demand, is a LOSERS vote.

 

 

 

 

agree with that,

its about as daft as talking about leaving on WTO rules - totally baba bohboh

 

[dunroaming]

4 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

That would be disappointing -- I want mop head next...

Let's see if mop head steps up this time and if he does will he get the backing?  I suspect he may once again vote for May.

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, nontabury said:

I wish you would stop referring to a re-run of the 2016 referendum, as a people’s vote, as that is what actually took place in 2016. What you should call your demand, is a LOSERS vote.

 

 

 

 

agree with that,

its about as daft as talking about leaving on WTO rules - totally baba bohboh

 

[tebee]

 

[melvinmelvin]

15 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

Yes it was very odd.  The Brexit campaigners who were perfectly placed to step up for the PM post after Brexit chose to run away and then actually backed May for the position.  Why would they do that?  I think that May saw the opportunity (probably the only one) to get to be PM and took it.  As sure as eggs is eggs she must be regretting that today.  Many realised that it was a poisoned chalice and she was always doomed to failure trying to deliver a Brexit that had been pitched based on lies and fantasies.

 

Now the chickens come home to roost (never really understood that one) and we are in utter chaos.

 

I think she may well survive this vote of no confidence because there is nobody else who can make a better job of it and many of the MP's realise that.

 

nobody else could have done a better job? not sure I can agree with that, I think she has handled the

negotiations very badly from the very start and with the wrong crew all along

 

agree with you when you say she saw the PM opportunity and grabbed it,

depending on how mentally blocked she is

she may or may not regret it

 

doomed to failure? don't agree

 

at any rate as we say in Yorkshire,

if the tories vote her down

does the Tory party have any credible replacements? or is Labour next?

 

[melvinmelvin]

6 minutes ago, tebee said:

 

combine the bus and the island stuff - you have a winner - 14-1

for lying on a bus he thought was driving in mainland Europe