Russia and Myanmar have drawn closer than ever, forging a partnership that few would have predicted before the crises of recent years. At the heart of this relationship is General Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar’s military ruler, who has gone to unusual lengths to praise Vladimir Putin—even likening him to a mythical “rat king” destined to rule Russia and ally with Burma’s monarch. Odd as it sounds, the anecdote underscores the depth of their political friendship. The turning point came after Myanmar’s 2021 coup, which left the country isolated and desperate for allies. Russia, itself increasingly cut off from the West following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, found in Naypyidaw a willing partner. What began as a pragmatic exchange of arms and diplomatic support has evolved into a full embrace, symbolised by Min Aung Hlaing’s meetings with Putin in Vladivostok and the Kremlin. For Moscow, Myanmar offers a foothold in Southeast Asia—a strategic prize reminiscent of Russia’s role in Syria. Arms sales remain the backbone of the relationship, with Russian equipment seen as more reliable and politically convenient than Chinese alternatives. Diplomatic backing is the second pillar: Russia’s veto power at the UN provides the junta with crucial protection against international censure. From Naypyidaw’s perspective, Russia is the ideal counterbalance to China. The generals are wary of overdependence on Beijing, yet cannot afford to alienate it. By cultivating ties with Moscow, they revive an old Southeast Asian strategy of relying on two external patrons simultaneously—the so-called “two-headed bird” approach. China, for its part, appears content with this arrangement. A Russia entrenched in Myanmar is far less threatening than Western influence, and Beijing has gradually shifted towards supporting Min Aung Hlaing’s regime. The consequences are stark. Russian weapons bolster the Tatmadaw’s fight against resistance forces, while political backing reduces Myanmar’s isolation. For Putin, the alliance helps offset Russia’s global estrangement, signalling that Moscow can still expand its influence beyond its immediate neighbourhood. In short, both leaders gain: Min Aung Hlaing secures legitimacy and arms, Putin secures a Southeast Asian ally. The losers are Myanmar’s democratic opposition and a hesitant West, which has yet to craft a coherent response to the post-coup reality. At a time when both regimes face condemnation, their partnership is a reminder that isolation can breed unlikely friendships—and reshape regional power dynamics. -2026-03-19
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