Junta’s three-year peace effort in South fizzles to embarrassing end

[webfact]

Junta’s three-year peace effort in South fizzles to embarrassing end

By Don Pathan 
Special to The Nation

 

 

Peace talks with separatist insurgents have hit a snag after longstanding tensions between Thai negotiators and MARA Patani, an umbrella organisation of separatist movements in the Muslim-majority South, came to the boil.

 

The first sign of trouble came in the middle of last year, when Bangkok refused to ink an agreement on a pilot Safety Zone, a high-profile initiative before it was ditched by the new chief negotiator, General Udomchai Thamsarorat.

 

Udomchai saw the Safety Zone project and its ceasefire as unrealistic because MARA Patani has little or no control over the insurgent combatants.

 

 With faith in the umbrella group draining, the Thai side decided to seek direct contact with Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), the longstanding separatist movement that controls virtually all of the rebel combatants.

 

BRN is not currently part of the Malaysia-facilitated talks and Kuala Lumpur has had no success in convincing the movement’s leadership to endorse the peace initiative.

 

The latest hiccup came during a February 2 visit to Kuala Lumpur by Udomchai and his team, for a meeting with technical officials from MARA Patani. Udomchai said he went along just to meet Abdul Rahim Noor, the designated Malaysian facilitator for the talks.

 

But out of nowhere, Malaysia insisted the meeting constituted high-level talks, which would require Udomchai and Rahim Noor’s participation.

 

Udomchai refused but suggested compromise: an informal meeting with Shukri Hari, a senior MARA Patani negotiator.

 

The following day, Shukri appeared in a YouTube video calling on the Thai government to replace Udomchai with someone “more credible”. The group also said they would not talk to the Thais until a new government was formed in Bangkok.

 

Why all the drama over protocol? According to Artef Sohko, chair of The Patani, a local political action group dedicated to promoting self-determination for the people of Patani, the tension stems from a feeling among Malaysia and MARA Patani that Udomchai may be moving away from them to establish a separate back-channel with BRN.

 

“MARA Patani is concerned that they will become irrelevant. The drama in Kuala Lumpur and Shukri’s statement on YouTube afterward stemmed from that fear,” Artef said.

 

For some in the international community, Udomchai’s appointment  was a breath of fresh air for the peace push. After all, he broke with tradition to seek their views – although foreign mediation is still out of the question.

 

For mediation, he instead turned to local political activists and civil society organisations in the hope they might help bridge the divide or perhaps even mediate the talks. However, local activists with access to BRN leaders are not rushing to take up the offer.

 

Udomchai may have the mandate from Bangkok but no one is convinced he can deliver on agreements made at the negotiation table. There are too many “players” in power and none of them appears to be singing from the same hymn sheet. 

 

Continuity is another concern; each change of Thai government has brought a new negotiating team. And with a general election scheduled for March 24, no one is certain how the new administration will treat the far South.

 

Moreover, the junta has little to show in terms of a legacy in the far South. The Safety Zone that peace negotiators had been working on over the past three years has proved a leap of faith too far.

 

Delivering a new initiative at this point in time appears unrealistic given the impending general election. But Bangkok is still hoping it can open a channel of communication with the BRN, with or without MARA Patani’s participation.

 

The move is a U-turn on the path pursued by Udomchai’s predecessor as chief negotiator, General Aksara Kherdpol. Aksara depicted himself as having the upper hand and the moral high ground because of the mandate handed to him. He forgot that the BRN couldn’t care less about the current talks, meaning the brutality continued.

 

Yet Bangkok’s bid to establish communications with the BRN leadership hit trouble from the start.

 

Udomchai was supposed to meet BRN leaders Abdulloh Waemanor and Deng Awaeji on November 24 for talks arranged by Malaysia. But the two BRN men refused to show up and have been in hiding ever since.

 

Thai sources say Malaysian authorities have pinpointed the location of the pair, who unlike other Patani separatist leaders have no travel documents and thus are dependant on being granted asylum.

 

Malaysian facilitators decided that it was best to leave Abdulloh and Deng at their “safehouse” until Kuala Lumpur decided on its next move.

 

Frustrated with having virtually nothing to show for its near three-year peace effort with MARA Patani, Bangkok decided to lower its sights. It declared talks with BRN did not have to be at the leadership level as long as they had the blessing of separatist movement’s ruling council, the Dewan Pimpinan Parti.

 

But with BRN leaders keeping their heads down as they await Malaysia’s next move in this big “game of chicken” between them and Kuala Lumpur, meeting Udomchai is the last thing on their minds.

 

Don Pathan is a Thailand-based development and security consultant and a founding member of the Patani Forum (www.pataniforum.com), a civil society organisation dedicated to critical discussion of the conflict in Thailand’s far South.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30364932

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-02-28

[Puchaiyank]

While government officials and separatists leaders posture for position in their game of "playing chicken"...more innocent people are being killed.

Quality of leadership worldwide has significantly diminished in my personal opinion...this does not bode well for the future of humanity...

[leeneeds]

Negotiations with these people is never ending, the Philippines have the same problem in Davao, they build up arms kill innocent, the military react and the cycle continues, 

These people are just indiscriminate murderers who think justification of their cause is absolute, there are plenty of muslim countries where they can go and live, or accept the rules of the country where they reside now, form a political party to fight for what rights they percieve they are denied, 

killing for the sake of an idea  is abhorrent to todays society and one that can never be allowed to succeed.

 

[YetAnother]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Moreover, the junta has little to show in terms of a legacy

has little to show for anything

[Pique Dard]

i respect all religions, but sometimes it's hard, very hard when you see people being decapitated, innocents being shot down because they practice another religion, yet all these relegions celebrate the same God! moreover, God has never created a religion, not that i know of...

[mok199]

They always have blame and denial...

[steven100]

hunt them down and destroy.  imo

[simple1]

27 minutes ago, steven100 said:

hunt them down and destroy.  imo

This approach has been tried for years & only led to more bloodshed. Nearly all 'insurgencies' end by way of political negotiations, yet the Thai military oath contradicts such an approach (autonomy) for the deep South; no wonder all talks end in failure

Edited February 28, 2019 by simple1

[Aussieroaming]

43 minutes ago, steven100 said:

hunt them down and destroy.  imo

You have got to love keyboard warriors

[chainarong]

All peaceful efforts over the last two decades have been a dismal failure and the reason for that lies in the Thaksin era's ham fisted approach with machine pistols, M16's and half tracks, people have long memories. 

[baboon]

1 hour ago, Pique Dard said:

i respect all religions, but sometimes it's hard, very hard when you see people being decapitated, innocents being shot down because they practice another religion, yet all these relegions celebrate the same God! moreover, God has never created a religion, not that i know of...

Blame the players, not the game...

[Lungstib]

On the same day we get "investing in the army is important' we also get to hear just how fruitful their work has been. All those Generals getting decent salaries for 'negotiations' where no-one is listening, meetings where no-one attends and ideas that are just words on paper. Perhaps sending an army to negotiate peace is not the best solution. Is religious differences the only problem or is nationalism also in the way?

Edited February 28, 2019 by Lungstib

[canopy]

34 minutes ago, chainarong said:

All peaceful efforts over the last two decades have been a dismal failure and the reason for that lies in the Thaksin era's ham fisted approach with machine pistols, M16's and half tracks, people have long memories. 

Do you remember Thaksin's origami for peace approach? He wanted to show the people in the far south that the Thai people cared about them and wanted them to be part of Thailand. So all over Thailand people made paper origami with messages written on them. The sheer amount made was astonishing. Everywhere you went were these stacks of origami being prepared. These were spread by airplanes all over the deep south. One gold origami was made by Thaksin himself and the finder would get a free college scholarship. A kid thought he had found it, but it turned out to be something else. But Thaksin told the kid: get a B average and I'll give you a scholarship anyway. It was all a wonderful moment in Thailand to see such a genuine outpouring of love and support.

 

[SABloke]

36 minutes ago, baboon said:

Blame the players, not the game...

Wouldn't have any players if the game didn't exist...

[hansnl]

2 hours ago, leeneeds said:

Negotiations with these people is never ending, the Philippines have the same problem in Davao, they build up arms kill innocent, the military react and the cycle continues, 

These people are just indiscriminate murderers who think justification of their cause is absolute, there are plenty of muslim countries where they can go and live, or accept the rules of the country where they reside now, form a political party to fight for what rights they percieve they are denied, 

killing for the sake of an idea  is abhorrent to todays society and one that can never be allowed to succeed.

 

Look at a map of the world, pinpoint the places where there is killing of innocents, murder and mayhem, and surely in many of these places you will find muslim induced terror.

The many "tourists" from Iran visiting the south is ominous.

[Cadbury]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Junta’s three-year peace effort in South fizzles to embarrassing end

Under the current leadership just about everything the Junta does fizzles to an embarrassing end.

For the Thai military government humanity is very low on their priority list. Confrontation is the prime mover.

[holy cow cm]

This will never resolve a long as money and support keep coming from the bordering country. It would be really interesting to see who is actually funding this. 

[mfd101]

Quite apart from the rights & wrongs of BOTH sides, it's an interesting example of the difficulties caused by nation-state vs cultural diversity in Third World countries or situations (cf Philippines & Afghanistan & Kashmir and on & on).

 

The key difficulty often comes down to the question: Who gets to sit at the table? which has deep symbolism for everyone (as the experience above demonstrates).

 

You negotiate with one group, but 10 other groups stay on the sidelines watching & waiting for the next move. And each group has its own raison d'être, its own priorities, its own sensitivities & leadership aspirations ... so little progresses despite what may be good will & good faith on both sides at the table.

[baboon]

44 minutes ago, SABloke said:

Wouldn't have any players if the game didn't exist...

I know what you mean, but there is no uninventing it now...

[Eligius]

1 hour ago, Lungstib said:

On the same day we get "investing in the army is important' we also get to hear just how fruitful their work has been. All those Generals getting decent salaries for 'negotiations' where no-one is listening, meetings where no-one attends and ideas that are just words on paper. Perhaps sending an army to negotiate peace is not the best solution. Is religious differences the only problem or is nationalism also in the way?

Right, Lungstib. Here as in all else, the junta has shown its stunning achievements: NOTHING.

The only thing the junta is good at is ramping up (dangerous) myopic nationalism and xenophobia.

 

Edited February 28, 2019 by Eligius

[holy cow cm]

39 minutes ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

They will never resolve the conflict until the Thai authorities recognise the region has a different religion, different culture and different language.

 

There was a study done several years ago by ex-PM Anand that recognised the Southern provinces felt maligned and were not allowed to practice their own customs.

 

That's the biggest problem and the reason why the conflict escalated again in the mid-2000's under Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai. 

There is more to it than that now as there are different radical groups in play than just ones fighting for their cultural autonomy. Far surpassed the locals in region now and out of their control, bigger Muslim players are there who have nothing to do with the region except to create havoc and say my fellow Muslim brothers we support you, and attempt and try to take it into a Muslim independent country or leave it in chaos. They don't care either way. Hard to think that could reverse itself now as other Muslim entities are well dug in. Maybe just a training ground for the hard core.

 

Officially giving their cultural autonomy back is a great idea, but means nothing to the outsiders as probably stretches as far as Mecca.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

A long and interesting article...

 

But nowhere in it does the author actually say or suggest what the BRN wants?  Maybe he knows and assumes everyone else does as well, since he's well invested in the topic. But his readers aren't.

 

Does the BRN want the southern provinces to become part of Malaysia?  Do they want to establish their own independent region/new country? A Muslim theocracy? What?  And what if anything is Thailand willing to do toward meeting any of those demands.

 

The whole article is about process, not about demands and political/negotiating positions.

 

[thaiguzzi]

1 hour ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

That ignorant attitude has led to over 7000 deaths down there and got us to the situation we are in today.

Note who wrote it too...

The forum's arch Junta Lover,

"Mr P is the greatest thing to happen to this country since sliced egg fried rice",

the one, the only, Steven100...

[thaiguzzi]

1 hour ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

If you had even bothered to look at a map yourself you would see that it is Buddhist Thailand that is claiming sovereignty over four majority Muslim Malay provinces in the South, and the conflict was sparked because of increasing Buddhist neglect of the locals way of life including their language, religion and culture.

 

Nothing to do with 'Muslim induced terror' or any other such ignorant nonsense. 

110 years ago it was not even Thailand.

125 years ago, all the NE provinces bordering the Mekong were not Thai.
That is why to this day they all speak a Lao dialect.

And down in the South they speak a Malay dialect.

All to do with the British and Frenchies playing swapsies with other people's land and borders.

It is a similar concept to the allies breaking up the Middle East post WW I and WW II to newly designed borders & countries that were never there before.

And that is a mess to this day.

 

[Burma Bill]

You may be interested to know this all began with the complex "Anglo-Siamese Treaty of 1909" when the northern Malay States were divided into two parts. Pattani, Narathiwat, Songkhla, Satun and Yala remained under the control of Siam (Thailand) and it relinquished it's claims to control Kedah, Kelantan, Perlis and Tarengganu  which became the "Unfederated Malay States" under UK control (now within Malaysia). This is why Thailand's south is predominantly Muslim with the current problems starting in the 1960's.

cf: Korea and Kashmir - partition!

[simple1]

2 hours ago, hansnl said:

Look at a map of the world, pinpoint the places where there is killing of innocents, murder and mayhem, and surely in many of these places you will find muslim induced terror.

The many "tourists" from Iran visiting the south is ominous.

If true, given Thailand is 99% Sunni, what kind of welcome do you think Iran's Shiites will receive from the extremists in the deep South?

Edited February 28, 2019 by simple1

[Kwasaki]

3 hours ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

Buddhist Thailand that is claiming sovereignty over four majority Muslim Malay provinces in the South

Nothing to do with 'Muslim induced terror' 

Two things it's Thailand land and territory conquered many moons ago.

If Muslims are not the cause of trouble who is. ? 

[hotchilli]

Give them autonomy, let them fight amongst themselves !

[Essaybloke]

6 hours ago, Pique Dard said:

i respect all religions, but sometimes it's hard, very hard when you see people being decapitated, innocents being shot down because they practice another religion, yet all these relegions celebrate the same God! moreover, God has never created a religion, not that i know of...

Wow Pique!  Why would you respect ideas based on totally unsubstantiated superstitious claims about the totally unsubstantiated 'supernatural'? And whose essential faith-driven thinking so often leads to the excesses you yourself bring up? We respect ideas that through rational critical investigation have shown themselves to be worthy of respect. Further, one can always respect people regardless of their beliefs.

[DrTuner]

I always need to be reminded why Thailand needs to hang on to it's muslim south that don't want to be a part of Thailand. What was it again? Face?