Pheu Thai No 1 choice, but well short of majority

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Pheu Thai No 1 choice, but well short of majority

By The Nation

 

File photo

 

THE PREVIOUS ruling party, Pheu Thai, is expected to win the most number of seats in the House of Representatives in the March 24 general election although it will fall short of the majority, according to a survey by Nation Group journalists across the country.

 

Pheu Thai is forecast to win 136 MP seats from all 350 constituencies, dominating the North and Northeast, and likely to take all the seats up for grabs from many provinces in the two regions that still have faith in the party’s patriarch, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. 

 

The Democrat Party is expected to trail way behind in second place, tipped to win 88 seats mainly from its traditional strongholds in the South and Bangkok.

 

The pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party, which has nominated Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha as its only PM candidate, is forecast to win the third most number of House seats – 62 – mainly from the North and Northeast. Many Phalang Pracharat candidates in those constituencies are former MPs from Thaksin’s proxy parties – the now-defunct Thai Rak Thai and People’s Power, and Pheu Thai.

 

The top three are expected to be followed by Bhumjaithai Party, with 31 House seats, Chartthaipattana (12), Thai Raksa Chart (seven), Chart Pattana (six), Action Coalition for Thailand (four), Prachachart (two), and Peau Chat and Thai Forest Conservation (one each).

 

Future Forward Party, which is viewed as the darling of young voters, is unlikely to win any seats from constituencies. Its chance rests with the party-list electoral system. The outlook is bleak despite the popularity of the party’s leader, wealthy businessman-turned-politician Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit.

 

The Nation Election analyses comes from local journalists of the Nation Group, based on their unofficial surveys of eligible voters and insights gained from all 350 constituencies.

 

 

In the previous completed general election in 2011, Pheu Thai won a clear majority, with 204 House seats from 375 constituencies. The Democrats came a distant second, with 115 House seats, followed by Bhumjaithai (29) and Chartthaipattana (15). Three other parties won a combined 12 seats. 

 

The next Lower House will have 500 seats – 350 from constituencies and 150 from the party-list system. For the first time in Thailand, only one ballot paper will be used for each voter to elect MPs from both constituency and party list, under a mixed-member proportional representation electoral system. 

 

Pheu Thai will likely continue to dominate the Northeast, which has the most number of House seats – 116. The party’s expected victory in 67 constituencies, however, will be far lower than the 104 in the 2011 election. Its candidates are expected to sweep all the House seats in Nakhon Phanom, Bueng Kan, Mukdahan, Yasothon, Si Sa Ket, Sakon Nakhon, Nong Khai, Nong Bua Lamphu and Udon Thani provinces.

 

Other House seats in the region are likely to be shared mainly by Phalang Pracharat (25) and Bhumjaithai (13). 

 

In the Central region, which has 92 House seats this time, no single party will be able to dominate. Pheu Thai is expected to win 25 MP seats, followed closely by Phalang Pracharat (23), Democrats (17), Bhumjaithai (13), and Chartthaipattana (10).

 

However, in the North, Pheu Thai looks set to dominate again. The defending champions are expected to win as many as 36 of the 62 available seats. They will likely be followed by Phalang Pracharat (13), Democrats (seven), Thai Raksa Chart (three), Bhumjaithai (two) and Chart Pattana (one).

 

The South, which has 50 seats up for grabs, will likely remain a stronghold of the Democrats, who won in 50 out of 53 constituencies in the 2011 election. This time, the Democrats are expected to win 40 House seats. The 10 remaining seats are expected to be shared by Action Coalition for Thailand (four), Bhumjaithai (three), Prachachart (two) and Phalang Pracharat (one).

 

The Democrats have the potential to sweep all House seats in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Trang, Phang-nga, Phatthalung, Phuket, Songkhla and Surat Thani provinces.

 

In the capital, the Democrats will likely dominate again. They have the potential to win 22 out of the 30 House seats, leaving the remaining eight to arch rivals Pheu Thai. 

 

Other parties are unlikely to have much of a chance in Bangkok, which has been a battlefield for the Democrats and Thaksin’s parties. But the Democrats have dominated the city’s elections since Thaksin’s first party Thai Rak Thai contested in 2001.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30365258

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-03-06

[Samui Bodoh]

"...The Nation Election analyses comes from local journalists of the Nation Group, based on their unofficial surveys of eligible voters and insights gained from all 350 constituencies..."

 

In other words...

 

This is pure, made up, utter BS based on no scientific methodology whatsoever.

 

Hey Nation!

 

If you want to be considered a newspaper with journalists and/or credibility, you can't print guesses and pretend they are facts. Newspapers/journalists do not print guesses and pretend that they are facts; even a four year old child knows this.

 

This is an embarrassment.

 

 

Edited March 5, 2019 by Samui Bodoh

[phantomfiddler]

Very simple, if any party controlled by thaksin wins, there will be another coup !

[happy chappie]

So only two party's to ban and jobs done and a clear victory for mr Mugabe and his clan.if that don't work call the whole vote fraudulent and cancel it for another few years.

[Borzandy]

14 minutes ago, phantomfiddler said:

Very simple, if any party controlled by thaksin wins, there will be another coup !

Hopefully....Thais like corruption but not all.

[mercman24]

they got the USA elections all wrong didnt they, so called experts/journalists ha ha

[robblok]

Looks like the PTP is not going to do better as in previous election. Lets wait and see if its true. 

 

I did not see future forward in the list, so i assume they wont win any constituencies. 

 

PTP + Chattaipattana 148

Democrats + Phalang pracharat = 150

 

If these are the real numbers then PTP is preforming worst than expected. 

 

However this is just a poll, lets wait for the real results.

Edited March 6, 2019 by robblok

[metempsychotic]

7 minutes ago, robblok said:

Looks like the PTP is not going to do better as in previous election. Lets wait and see if its true. 

 

I did not see future forward in the list, so i assume they wont win any constituencies. 

 

PTP + Chattaipattana 148

Democrats + Phalang pracharat = 150

 

If these are the real numbers then PTP is preforming worst as expected. 

 

However this is just a poll, lets wait for the real results.

sadly democrats and p2p in coalition isnt on the cards.

 

simply keeping prayut out should be the goal here.

[BestB]

So if to assume this poll is correct who will rule?

[robblok]

14 minutes ago, metempsychotic said:

sadly democrats and p2p in coalition isnt on the cards.

 

simply keeping prayut out should be the goal here.

Maybe it should be the goal, but PTP can never work with the Democrats. It won't work they will fight over positions. A government of PTP and Democrats would be enough to keep Prayut out. 

 

I don't see it happening. 

 

One advantage of Prayut in power is that he loses his powers and he will be faced cleaning up his own mess. Cant blame anyone then but himself.

[Eric Loh]

If the poll is correct, it show PTP miscalculate big time. For this election they only put 250 candidates in the 350 constituencies and confident to win big. The 45% deficit will be a big blow. Thai Raksa survival is still at stake and even if they survive will be unlikely to win constituencies and party list to make up the deficit and thwart Prayut ascendancy. The only hope is for FFP is win seats enough to form a coalition to be able to frustrate Prayut. However the big question that will have big influence is how the Dem Party will react. The caveat is how accurate is this poll.   

[Longcut]

6 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

"...The Nation Election analyses comes from local journalists of the Nation Group, based on their unofficial surveys of eligible voters and insights gained from all 350 constituencies..."

 

In other words...

 

This is pure, made up, utter BS based on no scientific methodology whatsoever.

 

Hey Nation!

 

If you want to be considered a newspaper with journalists and/or credibility, you can't print guesses and pretend they are facts. Newspapers/journalists do not print guesses and pretend that they are facts; even a four year old child knows this.

 

This is an embarrassment.

 

 

Well, it seems the Nation is Bought and Paid For.  Not very credible.

[Longcut]

47 minutes ago, BestB said:

So if to assume this poll is correct who will rule?

Seriously? ????   Lottery numbers during the election. 44

[otherstuff1957]

47 minutes ago, BestB said:

So if to assume this poll is correct who will rule?

Prayuth will be the next PM.  Senators, who have all been appointed by the Junta rather than being elected, all get to vote for the next PM.  That's 250 votes for Big Too.  No-one will be able to come up with enough votes to beat that.

[DrTuner]

Guarantees a coup. Round and round we go.

[robblok]

34 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

If the poll is correct, it show PTP miscalculate big time. For this election they only put 250 candidates in the 350 constituencies and confident to win big. The 45% deficit will be a big blow. Thai Raksa survival is still at stake and even if they survive will be unlikely to win constituencies and party list to make up the deficit and thwart Prayut ascendancy. The only hope is for FFP is win seats enough to form a coalition to be able to frustrate Prayut. However the big question that will have big influence is how the Dem Party will react. The caveat is how accurate is this poll.   

Big caveat is indeed how accurate this poll is.

 

But its a big step back if its true, and you cant call it a miscalculation because Thai Raksa and PTP do field candidates in all constituencies so just count them together. Even then its much lower as before PTP is losing votes.

 

But of course all of this is speculation as this might just be an other fake or inaccurate pol. 

[otherstuff1957]

1 hour ago, mercman24 said:

they got the USA elections all wrong didnt they, so called experts/journalists ha ha

Most of them did get it wrong, but the problem was with their interpretation of the data, not with the actual polling data.  Polls are only accurate to within about 5%, so a 3 or 4% lead should be counted as too-close-to-call. 

 

There were several states where Clinton lead by less than 5% and the experts mostly assumed that she would win all or most of them. Instead, Trump won ALL of the close races, which was statistically unlikey, but obviously not impossible.

[Eric Loh]

12 minutes ago, robblok said:

Big caveat is indeed how accurate this poll is.

 

But its a big step back if its true, and you cant call it a miscalculation because Thai Raksa and PTP do field candidates in all constituencies so just count them together. Even then its much lower as before PTP is losing votes.

 

But of course all of this is speculation as this might just be an other fake or inaccurate pol. 

Thai Raksa didn't consider the risk of dissolution when the planning was hatched. Both big parties will suffered losing seats to the PPRP if the poll is accurate. That will mean PPRP grabbing seats in incumbent North, Northeast and South constituencies which are tradition strongholds of PTP and DP. Can they pull this off? I will wait and see. Also wait and see if the CC's ruling on Thai Raksa tomorrow.  

[robblok]

Just now, Eric Loh said:

Thai Raksa didn't consider the risk of dissolution when the planning was hatched. Both big parties will suffered losing seats to the PPRP if the poll is accurate. That will mean PPRP grabbing seats in incumbent North, Northeast and South constituencies which are tradition strongholds of PTP and DP. Can they pull this off? I will wait and see. Also wait and see if the CC's ruling on Thai Raksa tomorrow.  

Yes but I was looking at the figures and combined the Thai Raksa with PTP to compare with previous election. It looks like a lot lower score that can go even lower if the Thai Raksa gets disbanded. 

 

I agree with you its lets wait and see until the real result is there.

 

I can understand them going after the Thai Raksa for using royalty, but they should not have gone after future forward, its transgressions are minor. 

 

Anyway lets wait and see. I am still amazed that democrats + army party is outperforming PTP and Thai Raksa. I am not sure how accurate this poll is.

 

 

[Myran]

2 hours ago, phantomfiddler said:

Very simple, if any party controlled by thaksin wins, there will be another coup !

One can only hope.

[Eric Loh]

5 minutes ago, robblok said:

am not going to say that no laws were broken, I am no legal expert I will let the judge decide that. 

You and everyone including Thai Raksa are trying to figure out what laws have been broken. The EC could not provide the law in which the party was charged. They could only say that it was an unprecedented move. The EC resolution to the Court was sent after 2 days and Thai Raksa party was still trying to find out what were in the resolution so they can defend. Law can’t be broken if you can’t qoute the specific law. You just hate everything Shin with your frivolous comment. 

[robblok]

Just now, Eric Loh said:

You and everyone including Thai Raksa are trying to figure out what laws have been broken. The EC could not provide the law in which the party was charged. They could only say that it was an unprecedented move. The EC resolution to the Court was sent after 2 days and Thai Raksa party was still trying to find out what were in the resolution so they can defend. Law can’t be broken if you can’t qoute the specific law. You just hate everything Shin with your frivolous comment. 

I am not really trying to figure out what laws are broken, as I have no clue in this case. I only know that this was in incident that shook up the whole of Thailand, so I understand that they want the courts to look at it and see IF laws are broken or not. 

 

Yes i dislike the Shins but in this case I am not taking sides. I was only saying I understand that they want to let the courts look at this to see if it was legal or not. Like  you said this is something totally new. So no wonder they want to see if its legal or not.

 

I take no sides in the legal argument here, but I prefer them NOT to be disbanded as it will only deepen the divide. Having said that I do understand them wanting to see if this was legal. This was an earth shattering event in the Thai political landscape so them wanting to see if its legal is normal.

 

I was however against the princess running as you would have a second Prayut then. (meaning someone you cannot comment on freely and debate with freely). I don't get if you want to get rid of Prayut because he cant be commented on not  attacked and so on to only replace him with someone who might have an even higher protection status. 

 

I find that quite hypocrite actually trying to get rid of someone who can't be attacked commented on only to replace him by someone on a different political side with the same protection.

 

You can argue that she was not a royal as she relinquished it but given that she still does royal tasks and how the populace thinks and the laws are its as if she were a royal with all protection.

 

Just my 2 cents.

 

 

[Rimmer]

A post has been removed as per the posters request also a reply

[RichardColeman]

You just know "Time to ban the other parties somehow" is running through his head

[snawa]

The wildcard is that losing votes will earn party seats in the same province. The dictatorship thought this would help them romp home without winning too many constituency seats but Future Forward is doing amazing local work on the ground in the north east particularly. Clever local advertising and trucks with billboards. They will either nullify to exceed the pro~coup party in party seats.

[kickstart]

Reading the op sounds like election results, reminds me of the old Russian communist days.

"News headlines, They has been a break-in at the Kremlin, and next months election results have been stolen".

I take the article with a large pinch of salt, as has been said the last USA elections went against the odds, and, opinion polls in the UK, are so far out a waste of time.

We all know it will not be true result corruption will pay its part, and if it like past elections, someone will come to our house on election day with 2-300 baht for the wife and say vote for number .........

A few years ago, one local election morning, a guy come and gave me 300 baht and said tell the wife to vote for number 10 .

[billd766]

11 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

If the poll is correct, it show PTP miscalculate big time. For this election they only put 250 candidates in the 350 constituencies and confident to win big. The 45% deficit will be a big blow. Thai Raksa survival is still at stake and even if they survive will be unlikely to win constituencies and party list to make up the deficit and thwart Prayut ascendancy. The only hope is for FFP is win seats enough to form a coalition to be able to frustrate Prayut. However the big question that will have big influence is how the Dem Party will react. The caveat is how accurate is this poll.   

It is that magic word "IF" again.

 

However several posters have mentioned that the FFP does not appear anywhere on the poll.

 

I have little to no faith in political polls anymore, whether in Thailand or elsewhere.

[Denim]

18 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

"...The Nation Election analyses comes from local journalists of the Nation Group, based on their unofficial surveys of eligible voters and insights gained from all 350 constituencies..."

 

In other words...

 

This is pure, made up, utter BS based on no scientific methodology whatsoever.

 

Hey Nation!

 

If you want to be considered a newspaper with journalists and/or credibility, you can't print guesses and pretend they are facts. Newspapers/journalists do not print guesses and pretend that they are facts; even a four year old child knows this.

 

This is an embarrassment.

 

 

Absolutely spot on.

 

Utter garbage from the Nation as usual. They have an agenda and will print whatever suits it regardless of any reality.

 

Their agenda here is to attempt to discard Future Forward as a viable selection for voters.

 

But The Nation has always been pro yellow so to expect honest and unbiased reporting is expecting a lot.

 

Frankly , if they print something without a grammar or spelling mistake it is noteworthy . Anything else is usually just childish musings.

[bowerboy]

Genuine question;

 

Is the most likely outcome a squabbling coalition government with Prayut as PM?

 

He will get torn to shreds and it will be very highly amusing.

 

i have been impressed with the Thai politicians comments and actions against Prayut and without guns to back him up he seems totally out of his depth.

 

So is that assumption correct? Squabbling coalition with Prayut as PM?

[Arkady]

13 hours ago, bowerboy said:

Genuine question;

 

Is the most likely outcome a squabbling coalition government with Prayut as PM?

 

He will get torn to shreds and it will be very highly amusing.

 

i have been impressed with the Thai politicians comments and actions against Prayut and without guns to back him up he seems totally out of his depth.

 

So is that assumption correct? Squabbling coalition with Prayut as PM?

Most commentators seem to think this is the most likely scenario. The Senate can vote to elect a PM and on bills regarded as pertinent to national reform but not in no confidence debates.  Therefore a government that doesn't have a majority in the lower house is going to have problems in addition to the normal problems of coalitions.