UK car industry warns next PM against 'seismic' no-deal Brexit

[Loiner]

2 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Typical brexit mentality.

I suppose that you think with a 200% import tax there isn't any German cars in Thailand.

At 20.6 Billion euros worth of German cars per year, I'd happily slap 200% tax on them. It would come in handy to support the UK workers who lost their jobs to the EU.

Do you really think the imports would remain at that level?

[GeorgeCross]

7 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Typical brexit mentality.

I suppose that you think with a 200% import tax there isn't any German cars in Thailand.

 

err let me google that for ya..

 

Quote

The BMW Group Manufacturing Thailand plant was built in 2000 with a total investment of more than 2.6 billion baht, occupying a space of approximately 75,000 square meters. BMW reported that its Rayong plant exported 9,449 completely built-up units in 2016, mainly to China. It was the first year of shipments from its Thailand facility.^[17]

In 2016 BMW Group Thailand sold 7,923 BMW (7,010) and Mini (913) automobiles in-country, a decrease of 9.6 percent from 2015 and its first dip in nine years. BMW Motorrad Thailand's sales rose by 42.1 percent to 1,819 deliveries in 2016. 

 

and errr..

 

Quote

Mercedes-Benz first gained a toehold in Thailand in 1960, when they established a plant for the manufacture of utility vehicles (operational in 1961). Passenger car production commenced in 1979, soon after the government's ban on CBU imports. Mercedes are built by the Thonburi Automotive Assembly Plant Company. In more recent years, much of the Mercedes-Benz line has been built here, from the A-class to the C, E, and S-classes.^[20]

In September 2015 GLA and CLA models are being assembled as semi knocked-down (SKD) vehicles at Thonburi Automotive Assembly Plant Co in Samut Prakan Province.^[26]

 

and actually aside from these two and the odd 12m baht porsche NO there are not many German cars in thailand

Edited June 26, 2019 by GeorgeCross

[puipuitom]

38 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Exactly, they are so hung up on German cars, they cannot see the wood for the trees.

Once the UK becomes a third country, the Japanese will be looking for an escape route.

Already done: Honda back to Japan.

Nissin - Sunderland ? ?

Toyota Manufacturing UK ( Corolla) - Burnaston, Derbyshire,  ? ? 

Bentley Motors =  Volkswagen Group

Jaguar Land Rover =  Tata Motor  India

Lotus Cars  +  MG Motor  = China

Rolls-Royce Motor Cars + Mini  =  BMW

Vauxhall Motors  = Opel - Germany

 

Sorry, but.. what is left ? see  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_in_the_United_Kingdom  

[puipuitom]

45 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Course they will. Just like South Korea.

 

Reuters, June 10.

 

so, a continuation with what the UK as EU member already had. A phantastic great deal, beyond dreams, superb negociations, Trump would say...

[puipuitom]

46 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The UK Auto industry is far from miniscule:

'With some 186,000 people employed directly in manufacturing and in excess of 856,000 across the wider automotive industry, it accounts for 12.0% of total UK export of goods and invests £3.65 billion each year in automotive R&D.'

https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/uk-automotive/

You mean: foreing investments to produce cars inside the U.K. Can change, see Honda ( back to Japan)  and Mini ( to Borne - NL) 

[sandyf]

8 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

err let me google that for ya..

 

 

and errr..

 

 

and actually aside from these two and the odd 12m baht porsche NO there are not many German cars in thailand

I am quite happy to be corrected where valid, more made here than I was aware of.

It does not detract from the fact that increased cost in the UK may reduce sales of German cars but it is certainly not going to wipe them out. They have a big enough domestic market to recover the loss.

[bristolboy]

43 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

 

oh and as for the car industry if no deal happens 1M Germans will lose their jobs in the german car industry. Britain is their largest automotive trading partner

You mean more Germans are going to lose their jobs than there actually are workers in the German auto industry? Brexit truly is magic!!! 

[GeorgeCross]

3 minutes ago, sandyf said:

I am quite happy to be corrected where valid, more made here than I was aware of.

It does not detract from the fact that increased cost in the UK may reduce sales of German cars but it is certainly not going to wipe them out. They have a big enough domestic market to recover the loss.

 

ah, so the answer to losing their biggest automotive trade partner is to sell more cars to germans. begs the question, why wait? why not sell more cars to them now? 

 

 

[sandyf]

The brexit myth that they cannot let go.

"They would suffer far more than the UK simply because they sell more to us than we do to them"

Currently EU sales to the UK are effectively a domestic sale. When the UK becomes a third country it will be a whole new ball game, many EU suppliers will not want the hassle of exporting and look for new domestic customers. All previous trade figures will become invalid and who sells what to whom will take on a whole new perspective.

[sandyf]

3 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

ah, so the answer to losing their biggest automotive trade partner is to sell more cars to germans. begs the question, why wait? why not sell more cars to them now? 

 

 

They will never lose the UK as a trading partner, just a reduction in numbers.

Many of the 27 domestic markets are fairly recent and I am not party to their marketing strategy. Chances are that moves have already been made.

[puipuitom]

What do you do as industry, when you prepare for an exit of Br ?  YES, you stop/reduce with investments.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/uk-car-manufacturing-falls-9-investment-plummets

https://www.ft.com/content/62832320-05dd-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5   Investment in UK car industry halves in 2 years

https://money.cnn.com/2018/01/31/news/economy/uk-auto-car-investment-brexit/index.html  Investment in the British car industry is plummeting

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/26/uk-car-production-drives-17-year-high-investment-stalls-uncertainty/

[Chomper Higgot]

It’s a curious thing.

 

Brexiteers who insist BMW and other German car makers will come to the aid of their Brexit cause, huff puff, Pooh Pooh and claim bias when the British car industry make their case against Brexit.

[bristolboy]

18 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

What do you do as industry, when you prepare for an exit of Br ?  YES, you stop/reduce with investments.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/uk-car-manufacturing-falls-9-investment-plummets

 

https://www.ft.com/content/62832320-05dd-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5   Investment in UK car industry halves in 2 years

 

https://money.cnn.com/2018/01/31/news/economy/uk-auto-car-investment-brexit/index.html  Investment in the British car industry is plummeting

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/26/uk-car-production-drives-17-year-high-investment-stalls-uncertainty/

 

From that ft.com link s\here are 2  somewhat important factors for Brexiters to consider:

"More than half of all cars exported from Britain go to Europe and the vast majority of components used in UK-built cars come from the continent."

It's not just about tariffs. Modern integrated supply chains work best when their movement is unfettered. And of course tariffs still do matter since parts may criscross borders several times and each time that crossing is from an eu nation to a non eu nation, tariffs will be applied. 

Edited June 26, 2019 by bristolboy

[billd766]

2 hours ago, sandyf said:

Typical brexit mentality.

I suppose that you think with a 200% import tax there isn't any German cars in Thailand.

The majority of German cars in Thailand are made in Thailand.

 

The imported ones don't care what the price is because of the Thai face. The one which says I have a lot more money than you.

[JonnyF]

2 hours ago, sandyf said:

You obviously missed the point, that the Japanese motor industry will be looking to escape the UK.

Feel free to believe that the South Koreans will provide as many jobs as the Japanese leave behind.

You missed my point entirely.  Let me keep it simple.

 

The Japanese will sign a deal just as the South Koreans did. 

[JonnyF]

2 hours ago, sandyf said:

Typical brexit mentality.

I suppose that you think with a 200% import tax there isn't any German cars in Thailand.

The British aren't obsessed with face gained via the price they paid for their car.

 

Even if they were, not much face to gain paying 60 grand for the same car that your neighbour paid 40 grand for last year. Especially if you're one of the 17 million that voted leave and dislikes EU protectionism. 

 

Even without tariffs a lot of people will stop buying EU products due to their negotiating stance. You think a brexiteer will pay 20k more for a BMW in November?

Edited June 26, 2019 by JonnyF

[JonnyF]

2 hours ago, puipuitom said:

Did you already compare this with the direct competitors of the UK, like Germany, France, Belgium, Netherlands ?

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Unemployment_statistics_at_regional_level or  https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9628005/3-01032019-BP-EN.pdf/fdee8c71-7b1a-411a-86fa-da4af63710e1

Not a real diference. Germany 3.2, UK 4.0 for Jan 2019

Remind.. Brexit did not happen yet.

1. The prediction was on a vote to leave, not leaving. So the fact we have not left yet is moot.

2. So you are saying that our figures are the same as the Germans? "DESPITE" Brexit? Well, that was my point. We are doing as well as the EU's largest economy even though we voted to leave and have parliament keeping us in a state of flux.

[stevenl]

2 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

1. The prediction was on a vote to leave, not leaving. So the fact we have not left yet is moot.

2. So you are saying that our figures are the same as the Germans? "DESPITE" Brexit? Well, that was my point. We are doing as well as the EU's largest economy even though we voted to leave and have parliament keeping us in a state of flux.

The prediction was the effects would be after leaving, not after the vote.

Just wait, you'll get what you want.

[candide]

4 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

sorry i got my 'numbers' from ian duncan smith and a 10 year serving MEP not the daily mail 

 

 

Well, he may not be that reliable...

https://www.dw.com/en/hard-brexit-risks-100000-german-jobs-report/a-47447207

https://www.politico.eu/article/study-hard-brexit-threatens-100000-german-jobs/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-09/study-sees-100-000-german-jobs-at-risk-from-hard-brexit

 

 

[Proboscis]

On 6/25/2019 at 6:53 PM, welovesundaysatspace said:

“Project Fear” whining in 3... 2... 1...

By "project fear" was meant unwarranted fear spread by remainers, that is individuals and political groups/parties who presented arguments against Brexit.  Some of the people who got this label were senior economists and even the President of the Bank of England.

 

This is different. The economists and experts have been silenced and the remainers have been outvoted or have gone with the majority and tried to support a Brexit deal.

 

What you are reading about here is a highly successful British business, a world class sector, that is contemplating its own demise. Their biggest problem will be disruption and increased costs relating to their international supply chain invariably from neighbouring countries. Their second biggest problem will be their markets for finished product, again invatiably in the neighbouring countries. All neighbouring countries are either in the EU or EEA.

 

Now, you can say, "Well, we can sell our cars elsewhere" - unfortunately that does not work as the rationale for the majority of output of British car factories is regional markets and except for some high end models it costs too much to send them around the world.

 

"But we can source our parts at home" you might say - well, not exactly because only by sourcing internationally can you get the economies of scale and be able to make a profit.

 

"Well, <deleted> the car industry," you might say. Indeed, but then the same goes for everything else that is produced in the UK, whether it is a good or service.

 

"Well, <deleted> business," you might say. Indeed, that is what Boris Johnson said only a few months ago.

 

And that is why do many people I know are making plans to up and leave, I mean to up and leave with their businesses, to take their capital and move it somewhere else.

 

One old but highly experienced businessman I spoke to recently said that he expects that the UK will have at minimum 10 years of economic depression following a no-deal Brexit. He is not given to exageration.

 

 

[CG1 Blue]

4 hours ago, puipuitom said:

Already done: Honda back to Japan.

Nissin - Sunderland ? ?

Toyota Manufacturing UK ( Corolla) - Burnaston, Derbyshire,  ? ? 

Bentley Motors =  Volkswagen Group

Jaguar Land Rover =  Tata Motor  India

Lotus Cars  +  MG Motor  = China

Rolls-Royce Motor Cars + Mini  =  BMW

Vauxhall Motors  = Opel - Germany

 

Sorry, but.. what is left ? see  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_in_the_United_Kingdom  

The Japanese are moving production back to Japan because the EU signed a trade deal with them. We can thank the EU for the loss of jobs in that sector. 

[bristolboy]

2 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

The Japanese are moving production back to Japan because the EU signed a trade deal with them. We can thank the EU for the loss of jobs in that sector. 

Well, maybe because such a large share of Japanese cars made in the EU are manufactured in the UK, that was the EU's way of showing the UK what it would mean to be outside the aegis of the EU. 

[alant]

On 6/26/2019 at 8:28 AM, Srikcir said:

5 seconds search:

https://www.politico.eu/article/why-gatt-24-wont-help-a-no-deal-brexit-uk/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-wto/trade-experts-dismiss-brexiteers-faith-in-obscure-wto-clause-idUSKCN1PH24V

 

Does not answer the question I asked, does not refer to ability to negotiate

Edited June 27, 2019 by alant
typo

[alant]

On 6/26/2019 at 8:13 AM, CapraIbex said:

HauptmannUK is right! And it is not up to him educating you and other 'arm chair' legislators/economists.
Use readily available & accessible sources and apply your intellectual ability to prove him wrong; And stop being childish!

No wonder you agree given your "stop being childish" comment, your comment do not provide any evidence other than saying you have no idea of my level of intellect or if I look for sources. I will put this one down to not worth the effort.

[Rimmer]

A flame and a quoted reply have been removed

[CG1 Blue]

15 hours ago, bristolboy said:

19 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

The Japanese are moving production back to Japan because the EU signed a trade deal with them. We can thank the EU for the loss of jobs in that sector. 

Well, maybe because such a large share of Japanese cars made in the EU are manufactured in the UK, that was the EU's way of showing the UK what it would mean to be outside the aegis of the EU. 

By putting thousands of people out of work?  And you want the UK to be part of an organisation that does this? 

[Chomper Higgot]

32 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

By putting thousands of people out of work?  And you want the UK to be part of an organisation that does this? 

I think being a member of an organization that offers tariff free trade within the world’s largest trade block and access to trade agreements across the globe makes sense.

 

Of course there are all those other fanciful trade agreements that don’t exist.

 

 

[CG1 Blue]

25 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I think being a member of an organization that offers tariff free trade within the world’s largest trade block and access to trade agreements across the globe makes sense.

 

Of course there are all those other fanciful trade agreements that don’t exist.

 

 

Britain is not a country that sits back and takes loads of sheet in order to get favourable deals from others. We'd rather find our own way than have our sovereignty slowly eroded, whatever the risks. You found this out in June 2016 when we voted to leave despite all the fear mongering. 

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, CG1 Blue said:

By putting thousands of people out of work?  And you want the UK to be part of an organisation that does this? 

Why should the EU care about a country that's rejecting it? If the EU made some kind  of tradeoff with Japan and it cost jobs in Canada, would that also be a problem for you. The EU  exists first and foremost to benefit its members in good standing.

[CG1 Blue]

26 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Why should the EU care about a country that's rejecting it? If the EU made some kind  of tradeoff with Japan and it cost jobs in Canada, would that also be a problem for you. The EU  exists first and foremost to benefit its members in good standing.

We are still a member of the EU are we not? Punishing a member state in the process of leaving by making thousands jobless - not great PR is it!