A dry wet season - does catastrophe loom?

[BoganInParasite]

Way down on rain in the northern portion of the Nan River valley. Rice being planted very slowly and a number of fields largely drained a few days after planting, presumably to get water into other fields to plant. Still water running out of the Luang Prabang mountains but way down on volume. This time last year the weir near us was diverting a ton of water into canals either side and still had water coming down the face.

[Stevemercer]

2 hours ago, canopy said:

There are wet years and dry years, it's just normal weather. Every year is different. If I recall 2015 was the driest of all years. The government predicted a dry June and July this year and they were right. They also predicted later in the season the rains will be heavy. It's amazing how accurate their long term forecasts tend to be. They also predicted 2019 could be an extremely hot year, maybe even the hottest on record.

 

Their predictions issued today are for poor rainfall in August and September (20% below normal). 

[NoshowJones]

20 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

I have no idea. But if Thailand can't sell rice and bring in US dollars then it hits the reserves.

Does that mean the baht could get weaker? If so then bring it on.

[Lacessit]

Chiang Rai area is very dry. Half the fields near my GF's village have not been planted, not enough water. They usually crop rice twice a year.

Scenic waterfalls that we like to visit during the wet season have no flow.

 

[malathione]

21 hours ago, Youlike said:

Rice uses loads of water, they can grow some special produce instead and save water....grow another product which needs less water and problem is solved.

Can't go much else on rice paddies. Prone to flooding, horrible depleted soil.

[Brunolem]

2 hours ago, canopy said:

There are wet years and dry years, it's just normal weather. Every year is different. 

It's not normal weather. 

 

Isaan has already lost the dry and cool season (November to February)... the last one dating back more than 5 years (I know that thanks to my electricity bills). 

 

Now, it is the second year in a row with barely a rain season... last year it lasted less than 2 months, and this year it has yet to start. 

 

Tropical climate used to be like clockwork, one could prepare for the change of season almost to the day, hence the many customs still alive even if the weather doesn't fit with the traditions anymore. 

 

One shouldn't dismiss climate change and its consequences with bold statements... these can be dramatic for many people, and not only in Thailand... just look at the Midwest American farmers who, instead of having no rain are drowning in water and also financially... 

 

 

[jak2002003]

21 hours ago, Samuel Smith said:

Had my lawn sprinklers on for over a week, east of Chiang mai.  Reservoirs very low.

Yep, same with our area in San Sai, Chiang Mai.  So far we have only had 2 big rain storms, and even they weren't anything special... and both very far apart.

 

I am having to water the garden a lot, and our pond is well down.    Like you very dark skies, gets windy, but no rain. 

[ToddinChonburi]

Government has this totally under control with massive amounts of water stored behind several dams . Lol.     Did you think I was serious  ?

[TPI]

21 hours ago, Youlike said:

Rice uses loads of water, they can grow some special produce instead and save water....grow another product which needs less water and problem is solved.

"Upland" rice can be grown like wheat!

[soalbundy]

4 hours ago, canuckamuck said:

Really dry up in here in the north. We normally would be planting new trees and crops, but there is no rain and what we did plant might die soon unless something changes. By this time of year no one thinks of rain usually because by this time of year it is usually a daily occurrence. The reservoirs are not filling, and the springs are still just a trickle, just like they are at the end of dry season. I can't even fill my pond because there isn't enough water. That would be inconceivable any other year in July.

 Unless we get a longer than normal wet season, next years dry season will be extreme.

It was forecast that not only would there be less than usual rain this year but that the rainy season would be shorter than usual, so yeah the hot season is going to be difficult

[GreasyFingers]

16 minutes ago, TPI said:

"Upland" rice can be grown like wheat!

Do you know how to grow "upland rice". We grow it and it depends on the wet season which every one else on here is talking about. Please explain what we should be doing in your world where wheat is grown on near level ground for mechanical harvesting. You methods do not work on 10-30 degree slopes

Edited July 16, 2019 by GreasyFingers
added

[dotpoom]

Another prophet of "Doom and Gloom"

[canopy]

I keep track of rainfall myself since I distrust the government due to several factors like (A) them needing to deliver huge rainfall numbers to show cloud seeding works and needs more funding and (B) how they sweep the air pollution under the rug hiding the truth from the people. So I have my own rain gauge and record single rain for years and keep a spreadsheet so I know exactly the real situation. Through July, my area in Phetchabun had less rain in 2014 and 2015 compared to this year so that would put this year in the middle compared to the last 5 years. Yes the rainy season started later than average. Yes there have been long dry spells. But I've seen worse and I've seen better. I don't see downward trend or doomsday event, just another year. I am pretty confident that in time an unusually wet year will occur and everyone will be moaning and groaning about floods, overflowing reservoirs, and how the government should have been doing more to prevent flooding.

 

[Mukdahanman]

Precious little rain up here in Mukdahan. some fields are so dry that they’re in danger of losing their crop, planted just days ago.

[DoktorC]

3 hours ago, GreasyFingers said:

Do you know how to grow "upland rice". We grow it and it depends on the wet season which every one else on here is talking about. Please explain what we should be doing in your world where wheat is grown on near level ground for mechanical harvesting. You methods do not work on 10-30 degree slopes

GreasyFingers is correct "upland rice" depends on rainfall rather than irrigation.  If the rain doesn't come, the rice will not survive. No rain, no crops. 

 

I love when the city folk come along and try to tell a farmer what to grow and how to do it. 

 

Even wheat needs a water to grow.  But even 10-30 degree slopes are a minor challenge to farmers as long as they have a self-leveling combine to harvest it.

 

 

[DoktorC]

34 minutes ago, canopy said:

I keep track of rainfall myself since I distrust the government due to several factors like (A) them needing to deliver huge rainfall numbers to show cloud seeding works and needs more funding and (B) how they sweep the air pollution under the rug hiding the truth from the people. So I have my own rain gauge and record single rain for years and keep a spreadsheet so I know exactly the real situation. Through July, my area in Phetchabun had less rain in 2014 and 2015 compared to this year so that would put this year in the middle compared to the last 5 years. Yes the rainy season started later than average. Yes there have been long dry spells. But I've seen worse and I've seen better. I don't see downward trend or doomsday event, just another year. I am pretty confident that in time an unusually wet year will occur and everyone will be moaning and groaning about floods, overflowing reservoirs, and how the government should have been doing more to prevent flooding.

 

How long have you been collecting rainfall data?  How do we know that you are collecting the data using established protocols?  Why should we trust you?

[Ulic]

Catastrophe is a certainty as far as I am concerned, but I stop well short of Thailand becoming a net importer of rice. Thailand may suffer a drought and water shortage but enough of Thailand will get sufficient rain for a poor crop and exports will drop dramatically. It is possible that this is the drought that forces Thailand to adopt "best" water management practices and perhaps they will bring in consultants and start a holistic whole country water management program. We shall see. Until then it will be Bangkok first, Pattaya second. Phuket third, and who cares about anywhere else I am afraid.    

[canopy]

10 hours ago, DoktorC said:

Why should we trust you?

No need to trust anyone. Let's just continue your discussion on the next wet year. Then you can see how awkward your comments are. I've been through the doom and gloom years with the summit in 2015. Back then people were convinced asia was drying up for good. Climate change, not enough trees left, blah blah blah and all the crop failures. Then rainy years followed. And this year is even wetter than it was 4 or 5 years ago. So when I look around all I see this year is just normal weather, not a downward trend or end of days. Years like this have happened before, and they'll happen again.

 

[Brunolem]

32 minutes ago, canopy said:

No need to trust anyone. Let's just continue your discussion on the next wet year. Then you can see how awkward your comments are. I've been through the doom and gloom years with the summit in 2015. Back then people were convinced asia was drying up for good. Climate change, not enough trees left, blah blah blah and all the crop failures. Then rainy years followed. And this year is even wetter than it was 4 or 5 years ago. So when I look around all I see this year is just normal weather, not a downward trend or end of days. Years like this have happened before, and they'll happen again.

 

Judging by the large majority of comments, you must be in an area enjoying its own nice micro-climate. 

 

Or maybe you are in denial, like so many others, and see things like you want them to be rather than like they are. 

 

I for one have long thought that Isaan was doomed to become dryland, climate change or not, because that is generally a side effect of massive deforestation in areas previously covered with jungle. 

 

It seems that we are getting there... 

[canopy]

13 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Or maybe you are in denial, like so many others, and see things like you want them to be rather than like they are 

No I am not in denial. I have a rain gauge. It doesn't lie. Micro-climate? Possibly. Despite the late start and long dry spells that i see like everyone else, I also see that this year has already dumped close to a meter of rain in my area. That outpaces some other years.

 

 

Edited July 17, 2019 by canopy

[LawrenceN]

On 7/15/2019 at 7:41 PM, Samuel Smith said:

Had my lawn sprinklers on for over a week, east of Chiang mai.  Reservoirs very low.

That's the graph of water in the Mae Kuang Dam, updated daily. Shows water levels currently above 2016 and 2017 levels.  Might seem low because last year was above average. Also note that the lowest levels usually occur in July. There has been a dip in the water level recently, probably due to the need for water in the fields for planting (and not a lot of rainfall). The upturn usually occurs in late July. We're right on target, not a drought year (yet).

[elgenon]

OP says farmers would buy rice. True?

 

Have read there is a drought and reservoirs are low. Just wondering if the powers that be released dam water in anticipation of rain.

[Humpy]

No rains for over 7 months, lawns don't need cutting so I'm feeling unfit and have put on weight. ...... but am still drinking the post mowing beers !!

[Jaggg88]

On 7/15/2019 at 1:55 PM, Youlike said:

Rice uses loads of water, they can grow some special produce instead and save water....grow another product which needs less water and problem is solved.

Poppies are a good cash crop ????