will the baht drop , should i invest GBP in the baht

[nomad2019]

its depressing news for us here in UK ,     see this forecast says the pound to potentially fall to 23  in next few years  more years 

see link here -  http://poundf.co.uk/pound-to-baht-forecast-gbp-to-thb

 

i have a few questions for those with more intellect than me in this area 

 

1,        is it worth me putting my pounds into baht , after all its a strong currency     ( i was going to put them into my euro account for a home purchase in                  benidorm , spain  )      i was also recently and still may be going to buy a condo in thailand 1 mill baht .   we maybe all can agree the pound is going to              s**t in the future.

 

2.       what is a good investment for me , and please no idiotic comments like buy a beer bar in pattaya.

 

    serious replies and thankyou in advance

[WalkingOrders]

For many reasons you can research yourself, I say do not purchase a condo. Re Thai baht v pound: Longterm prognostications on forex is something professionals cant even do with certainty. Too many changing factors involved. Everything from interest rate differentials to economic slowdown of either or both countries affecting export or capital inflows or outflows, potential crop failures, water shortages that may drag the baht, brexit, potential future trade deals, china....and on and on....I recommend you bring over as needed. Put some in thai bank leave some in gbp. That would be playing conservative. Rent in thailand is still cheap, you may want to move around etc....I would avoid too many eggs in one basket. I live in Thailand 3+ yrs, forex trader....thats my 2 cents... dont trust a damn thing I just said ????

[Pedrogaz]

It is difficult to speculate in single currencies with the hope of making money. The proper thing to do is to buy a basket if currencies Yen, Swiss francs, Euros, USD, pounds and baht if you spend in baht. This will likely hold its value over time as not every currency can depreciate at the same time. As an amateur speculator do not seek to make money, seek to have it hold its value.

If you have a portfolio like this then sell the strongest of the currencies when you need money...over time the weaker ones will come back and become strong.

If you wish to speculate my advice would be to buy Yen...the yen will appreciate against the USD but not necessarily against the yen. But I'd hang on to my pounds if I were you.

[1FinickyOne]

nobody knows the certain direction of anything determined by market factors... 

 

If you want to make an investment, take the time to research on your own. There is no substitute for knowledge. 

[nomad2019]

49 minutes ago, Pedrogaz said:

It is difficult to speculate in single currencies with the hope of making money. The proper thing to do is to buy a basket if currencies Yen, Swiss francs, Euros, USD, pounds and baht if you spend in baht. This will likely hold its value over time as not every currency can depreciate at the same time. As an amateur speculator do not seek to make money, seek to have it hold its value.

If you have a portfolio like this then sell the strongest of the currencies when you need money...over time the weaker ones will come back and become strong.

If you wish to speculate my advice would be to buy Yen...the yen will appreciate against the USD but not necessarily against the yen. But I'd hang on to my pounds if I were you.

thanks

            hang onto my pounds ?     surely the pound is going only down,   why do you advise this ? 

not put them into euro ? 

            that chart i gave a link to states GBP to drop to 23.7  in few years !!!!

[marcusarelus]

Don't most Forex investors invest in pairs. I'd pair the pound with the baht.  Pound down and baht up.  Forgive me if you can't do this.

[MartiniMan]

Don't be overly bearish and panic look at what UK has going for it - largest and oldest financial sector in the world - the biggest banks and top universities plus a wealth of great alliances and of course the common wealth

I read Rothchilds fund is targeting a 1.5 gbpusd recovery and I can see why - we hit this level last time and the market has priced in this low over a year ago and found strong support

Yes we can go lower but the upside potential is far greater. Where as the baht i do not see any reason for it to gain strength and the affect it is having on people with a strong baht and no change to lending rates is detrimental - causing a huge bubble especially in housing

Thailands stock market is being hit hugely by the china-us tradewar and implications from the tariffs trump has imposed

With 10 new freeports opening in UK and aiming for a Singapore model of business I really cannot see any reason why a dramatic and sustained recovery of British economy couldn't happen in the next 2 years especially with their payments from EU removed from the burden and the fact that US trade deal is likely to be signed now there are no EU restrictions - this could mean huge deals the likes we have never seen before and introduce a new wealth to uk agriculture, pharma and engineering.

On the other hand - I do not see any reasons why there would be sustained growth in thailand as the growth seen thus far is highly speculative based upon the assumption of a proactive economy that is enabled for foreign investors. In reality we do not see this manifest and purely a overly priced currency that is causing terrible repercussions for its people as their now overpriced to other nations and not offering anything extra so the tourism (which is the entire economy make no mistake) is really under pressure with top destinations down 80% and the spending we have seen in the past really not the same due to this expensive currency with nothing new to offer

GBPTHB back to 50+

USDTHB back to 35+ 

The fair value will come in very soon indeed wait for next budget and for trade war to get stronger and more developed - huge Japanese firms are closing in sriracha causing huge layoffs they are going broke - and everyone is credit up to the eyeballs on the assumption of more growth they are not prepared for recession but we can obviously see a recession is near of at least 4 years duration and could begin this year or next

Edited August 6, 2019 by MartiniMan
typo

[JacChang]

Question is, are you active enough? Have you estimated the paths of both ways?

What are your foreign exchange platforms and fees?

 

Looking at the 10 yr chart now, it's already at the lowest. If the answer to the above is yes, then sell out now, wait for the recovery and enter again. If you ask me from the current standpoint, I would say 35 is very likely in 6 months. That is 7% more to lose. As for the recovery? 43 is a safe bet, at 14%+ gains. In about 2 years. That's why there are some people who suggest you to stay at your current spot, you are already late to the game, now you have to ask yourself, how much is there to lose compared to how much you have to gain from the current standpoint. 2016 was the year to exit the pound.

And for those buying into the pound thinking it's cheap now, hold that thought and observe the market. It's a falling knife right now, never catch that. Let it fall as much as it wants to, if you see it refusing to move downwards 3-6months time frame, that's the safe time to enter bit by bit.

 

No currency or stock will ever become worthless unless there's something fundamentally wrong and no one wants to fix that problem. There's the right people and the late people at every trade, the right people sold at 2016. When the price has reached a considerable cheap price, alot of fearful people are selling. When the late people are selling, who is buying?

[weegee]

13 minutes ago, MartiniMan said:

Don't be overly bearish and panic look at what UK has going for it - largest and oldest financial sector in the world - the biggest banks and top universities plus a wealth of great alliances and of course the common wealth

I read Rothchilds fund is targeting a 1.5 gbpusd recovery and I can see why - we hit this level last time and the market has priced in this low over a year ago and found strong support

Yes we can go lower but the upside potential is far greater. Where as the baht i do not see any reason for it to gain strength and the affect it is having on people with a strong baht and no change to lending rates is detrimental - causing a huge bubble especially in housing

Thailands stock market is being hit hugely by the china-us tradewar and implications from the tariffs trump has imposed

With 10 new freeports opening in UK and aiming for a Singapore model of business I really cannot see any reason why a dramatic and sustained recovery of British economy couldn't happen in the next 2 years especially with their payments from EU removed from the burden and the fact that US trade deal is likely to be signed now there are no EU restrictions - this could mean huge deals the likes we have never seen before and introduce a new wealth to uk agriculture, pharma and engineering.

On the other hand - I do not see any reasons why there would be sustained growth in thailand as the growth seen thus far is highly speculative based upon the assumption of a proactive economy that is enabled for foreign investors. In reality we do not see this manifest and purely a overly priced currency that is causing terrible repercussions for its people as their now overpriced to other nations and not offering anything extra so the tourism (which is the entire economy make no mistake) is really under pressure with top destinations down 80% and the spending we have seen in the past really not the same due to this expensive currency with nothing new to offer

GBPTHB back to 50+

USDTHB back to 35+ 

The fair value will come in very soon indeed wait for next budget and for trade war to get stronger and more developed - huge Japanese firms are closing in sriracha causing huge layoffs they are going broke - and everyone is credit up to the eyeballs on the assumption of more growth they are not prepared for recession but we can obviously see a recession is near of at least 4 years duration and could begin this year or next

Yep....As I said earlier this year...about October November this year...

[Black arab]

Martiniman,you have obviously had one too many.

[watcharacters]

 

I wish I'd have invested my  USD into baht last night before the NYSE took another massive dump

 

[tjo o tjim]

I would put the money you expect to spend for the next couple years in Baht and stop worrying about it. I would not make a major purchase based on expected changes, nor would I try to get rich trading forex. The UK is going to have some challenges to overcome in the next 3-5 years; they should be pretty well priced in by now though relative to the USD. As for the Baht, if China keeps pushing down the Yuan, it will increase investment in Thailand (and elsewhere), likely propping up local currency. 

 

But who really knows...

[Antiparovian]

IMO the best way to mitigate against a falling pound is to invest in British companies that make most of their money from exports. Falling £ leads to increased share price.

[crazykopite]

Only a fool would invest in Thailand these days .

[Naam]

1 hour ago, MartiniMan said:

Don't be overly bearish and panic look at what UK has going for it - largest and oldest financial sector in the world - the biggest banks and top universities plus a wealth of great alliances and of course the common wealth

I read Rothchilds fund is targeting a 1.5 gbpusd recovery and I can see why - we hit this level last time and the market has priced in this low over a year ago and found strong support

Yes we can go lower but the upside potential is far greater. Where as the baht i do not see any reason for it to gain strength and the affect it is having on people with a strong baht and no change to lending rates is detrimental - causing a huge bubble especially in housing

Thailands stock market is being hit hugely by the china-us tradewar and implications from the tariffs trump has imposed

With 10 new freeports opening in UK and aiming for a Singapore model of business I really cannot see any reason why a dramatic and sustained recovery of British economy couldn't happen in the next 2 years especially with their payments from EU removed from the burden and the fact that US trade deal is likely to be signed now there are no EU restrictions - this could mean huge deals the likes we have never seen before and introduce a new wealth to uk agriculture, pharma and engineering.

On the other hand - I do not see any reasons why there would be sustained growth in thailand as the growth seen thus far is highly speculative based upon the assumption of a proactive economy that is enabled for foreign investors. In reality we do not see this manifest and purely a overly priced currency that is causing terrible repercussions for its people as their now overpriced to other nations and not offering anything extra so the tourism (which is the entire economy make no mistake) is really under pressure with top destinations down 80% and the spending we have seen in the past really not the same due to this expensive currency with nothing new to offer

GBPTHB back to 50+

USDTHB back to 35+ 

The fair value will come in very soon indeed wait for next budget and for trade war to get stronger and more developed - huge Japanese firms are closing in sriracha causing huge layoffs they are going broke - and everyone is credit up to the eyeballs on the assumption of more growth they are not prepared for recession but we can obviously see a recession is near of at least 4 years duration and could begin this year or next

comments filed under "stuff wet dreams are made of".

[dotpoom]

I know very little about this stuff but it appears simple to me. I am about to change 1MB into Euro in the next few days by sending from my bank here to my bank in Europe. When I lodged if many years ago it exchanged at between 50 and 54 Baht to the €uro.. now it's around 34Bt. I do not intend changing it back into Thai Baht again...thinking strongly of spending my last bit of time on this planet in Spain...So...for me it's a no brainer. If I'm missing something and about to do the wrong thing, or doing it the wrong way a pm would be very much appreciated. Cheers all. 

[SteveK]

I'm sure that GBP will bounce back once things are settled, but 50+, I doubt it within next 5 years. The UK is a disaster zone, outrageous national debt, government in total disarray, jobs being lost day in day out, police useless, and spiralling cost of living. Gold reserves right down, and the UK has fewer forex reserves than Thailand or even Mexico!

[Naam]

28 minutes ago, crazykopite said:

Only a fool would invest in Thailand these days .

the 'clever' ones who neglected for years the Baht are running in circles cursing their home currencies weakness.

[Naam]

2 hours ago, Pedrogaz said:

If you wish to speculate my advice would be to buy Yen...the yen will appreciate against the USD but not necessarily against the yen.

the yen will appreciate against the USD but not necessarily against the yen.

[gearbox]

8 minutes ago, SteveK said:

I'm sure that GBP will bounce back once things are settled, but 50+, I doubt it within next 5 years. The UK is a disaster zone, outrageous national debt, government in total disarray, jobs being lost day in day out, police useless, and spiralling cost of living. Gold reserves right down, and the UK has fewer forex reserves than Thailand or even Mexico!

I doubt the GBP would go close to 50+ Baht ever, unless there is a major calamity here. The world economic centre is slowly shifting to Asia.

 

The UK exports to EU are 289 billion pounds for 2018, 40% services. What would happen to the services export after the Brexit? If they were "recession proof" services like massages with happy ending I wouldn't be worried so much, but otherwise in a GFC2 scenario they would disappear pretty soon.

 

If I would choose a currency it would be the Swiss Franc - it did go lower to the Baht,  and it is regarded as fairly safe heaven.

 

 

 

[marcusarelus]

3 hours ago, Pedrogaz said:

It is difficult to speculate in single currencies with the hope of making money. The proper thing to do is to buy a basket if currencies Yen, Swiss francs, Euros, USD, pounds and baht if you spend in baht. This will likely hold its value over time as not every currency can depreciate at the same time. As an amateur speculator do not seek to make money, seek to have it hold its value.

If you have a portfolio like this then sell the strongest of the currencies when you need money...over time the weaker ones will come back and become strong.

If you wish to speculate my advice would be to buy Yen...the yen will appreciate against the USD but not necessarily against the yen. But I'd hang on to my pounds if I were you.

One thing you can bet on the Yen will not appreciate against the Yen up or down.  Good call.  

[Pdavies99]

3 hours ago, MartiniMan said:

Don't be overly bearish and panic look at what UK has going for it - largest and oldest financial sector in the world - the biggest banks and top universities plus a wealth of great alliances and of course the common wealth

I read Rothchilds fund is targeting a 1.5 gbpusd recovery and I can see why - we hit this level last time and the market has priced in this low over a year ago and found strong support

Yes we can go lower but the upside potential is far greater. Where as the baht i do not see any reason for it to gain strength and the affect it is having on people with a strong baht and no change to lending rates is detrimental - causing a huge bubble especially in housing

Thailands stock market is being hit hugely by the china-us tradewar and implications from the tariffs trump has imposed

With 10 new freeports opening in UK and aiming for a Singapore model of business I really cannot see any reason why a dramatic and sustained recovery of British economy couldn't happen in the next 2 years especially with their payments from EU removed from the burden and the fact that US trade deal is likely to be signed now there are no EU restrictions - this could mean huge deals the likes we have never seen before and introduce a new wealth to uk agriculture, pharma and engineering.

On the other hand - I do not see any reasons why there would be sustained growth in thailand as the growth seen thus far is highly speculative based upon the assumption of a proactive economy that is enabled for foreign investors. In reality we do not see this manifest and purely a overly priced currency that is causing terrible repercussions for its people as their now overpriced to other nations and not offering anything extra so the tourism (which is the entire economy make no mistake) is really under pressure with top destinations down 80% and the spending we have seen in the past really not the same due to this expensive currency with nothing new to offer

GBPTHB back to 50+

USDTHB back to 35+ 

The fair value will come in very soon indeed wait for next budget and for trade war to get stronger and more developed - huge Japanese firms are closing in sriracha causing huge layoffs they are going broke - and everyone is credit up to the eyeballs on the assumption of more growth they are not prepared for recession but we can obviously see a recession is near of at least 4 years duration and could begin this year or next

Ha Ha!!  You should be a Government Minister (In Fairy Tales!)

[NightSky]

To the op, be careful what you invest in because from your comments you don’t seem to understand what is going on with the currencies and you know nothing of the condo market in Thailand.

 

In my opinion..

 

Gbp will rise if a brexit deal is reached. My guess is to 42 level ish. It may rise slowly maybe to 42-45 range over a longer period as more deals are put in place,

 

if no deal the gbp will dip to 35 before bouncing higher after a year or so but it would never goto 23 unless a few nukes or a giant asteroid hit London

 

the condo market is saturated in Thailand and the build quality isn’t great.

 

keep it simple. Put your money in an isa because it sounds like you’ll lose it otherwise.

 

thank me later

Edited August 6, 2019 by NightSky

[finnishmen]

i hope thai baht drop and then keep down long long time 1euro/36 thai baht now i hope drop 1euro/20 baht and keep thias next 50 year.

[SteveK]

3 hours ago, NightSky said:

it would never goto 23 unless a few nukes or a giant asteroid hit London

 

Looking at the historical forex rates, and factoring in what is currently happening in the UK, I would not be at all surprised if the GBP goes as low as 23 Baht. The country has basically had a metaphorical nuke strike in financial terms, the government has proved themselves to be completely and utter incompetent, they can't continue paying for the police and healthcare it is a complete and utter shambles. Maybe if a massive asteroid hit London then the world would be a better place, but all those thieving bankers and lying MPs don't deserve such a quick and easy death.

 

The UK government is the laughing stock of the world thanks to Theresa May, and there are websites suggesting that she was a stooge to deliberately delay and delay in an effort to try and halt Brexit. Gordon Brown sold off most of the gold at under $300 an ounce, what a strabismic fool he was, the UK now has very little power in any sense of the word. It's going to be down down down for the Pound Sterling from here on out, let's face it the country is now a complete and utter sh*t hole.

Edited August 6, 2019 by SteveK

[nomad2019]

15 hours ago, SteveK said:

Looking at the historical forex rates, and factoring in what is currently happening in the UK, I would not be at all surprised if the GBP goes as low as 23 Baht. The country has basically had a metaphorical nuke strike in financial terms, the government has proved themselves to be completely and utter incompetent, they can't continue paying for the police and healthcare it is a complete and utter shambles. Maybe if a massive asteroid hit London then the world would be a better place, but all those thieving bankers and lying MPs don't deserve such a quick and easy death.

 

The UK government is the laughing stock of the world thanks to Theresa May, and there are websites suggesting that she was a stooge to deliberately delay and delay in an effort to try and halt Brexit. Gordon Brown sold off most of the gold at under $300 an ounce, what a strabismic fool he was, the UK now has very little power in any sense of the word. It's going to be down down down for the Pound Sterling from here on out, let's face it the country is now a complete and utter sh*t hole.

     

    +1.....thumbs up !!

[Mike Teavee]

18 hours ago, NightSky said:

To the op, be careful what you invest in because from your comments you don’t seem to understand what is going on with the currencies and you know nothing of the condo market in Thailand.

 

In my opinion..

 

Gbp will rise if a brexit deal is reached. My guess is to 42 level ish. It may rise slowly maybe to 42-45 range over a longer period as more deals are put in place,

 

if no deal the gbp will dip to 35 before bouncing higher after a year or so but it would never goto 23 unless a few nukes or a giant asteroid hit London

 

the condo market is saturated in Thailand and the build quality isn’t great.

 

keep it simple. Put your money in an isa because it sounds like you’ll lose it otherwise.

 

thank me later

If you're not a UK Resident for tax purposes then you cannot open or add funds to an ISA...

[Chivas]

On 8/6/2019 at 8:38 AM, nomad2019 said:

 

            that chart i gave a link to states GBP to drop to 23.7  in few years !!!!

lol where do you guys come up with this stuff

Even in the very short term if Sterling was Parity with the Dollar (and it wont be lol) we'd be at 30.8 today.....to drop to 23.7 you work out how many cents £1 would be. Clearly you need some guidance and self help

If Sterling was that low no one on this forum who was a Brit would ever venture out of the uk again such would be the ramifications

Edited August 7, 2019 by Chivas

[davidst01]

OP should be buying gold. Its what I did at the Perth Mint in Oz. You can open an online account and buy via their depository program. Its all guaranteed by the western australian government. Cant go wrong. They even guarantee to buy it back from you if need be. Im up 17% since last May. Gold has been a hedge for inflation for hundreds of yrs. Some pundits say its going to rise to $5000....

[madmen]

Only a fool would invest in Thailand these days .

Only a fool kept this money outside of Thailand and is now paying the price