Thoughts on "will there be a Real High Season" this year?

[kinyara]

Re the above 2010-2018 tourist numbers of Western countries in order of significance :

1) USA - Increased 7 years out of 8 & every year in the last 5.

2) UK - Increased 6 years out of 8, down an earth shattering 16k from the peak 1,003k 2 years ago.

3) Germany - Increased 7 years out of 8 & every year in the last 5.

4) Australia - Up and down and hovering around the 800k level the last 4 years.

5) France - Increased 8 years out of 8.

6) Sweden - Steady decline since 2011, 374k to 312k

7) Italy - Increased 8 years out of 8.

8 Holland - Increased 7 years out of 8

 

Where does this notion of declining Western tourist numbers come from ?

[Leaver]

3 minutes ago, kinyara said:

Re the above 2010-2018 tourist numbers of Western countries in order of significance :

1) USA - Increased 7 years out of 8 & every year in the last 5.

2) UK - Increased 6 years out of 8, down an earth shattering 16k from the peak 1,003k 2 years ago.

3) Germany - Increased 7 years out of 8 & every year in the last 5.

4) Australia - Up and down and hovering around the 800k level the last 4 years.

5) France - Increased 8 years out of 8.

6) Sweden - Steady decline since 2011, 374k to 312k

7) Italy - Increased 8 years out of 8.

8 Holland - Increased 7 years out of 8

 

Where does this notion of declining Western tourist numbers come from ?

Historical rises don't mean much when we are heading into a global recession, Brexit, a super strong baht, new competition in the region, Thailand's visa changes etc.

 

I would be interested in seeing the figures from the GFC.  That may be a better indication for what is coming for the tourism industry here.   

 

Check out this article.

 

Is he lying????

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tourism/pattaya-30-down-this-year-european-tourist-drop-off

 

“Compared to last year, there are between 20 and 30% fewer tourists this low season.”

 

"Damrongkiat says that it’s obvious to anyone – nightclubs, beer bars and many restaurants were all but empty."

 

“Europeans are no longer coming due to the strength of the baht and other factors like competition elsewhere.”

[Leaver]

This is the article running in the Pattaya News Forum.

 

Is he also lying?

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tourism/pattaya-tourist-slump-visitors-leaking-to-vietnam

 

 

[kinyara]

Good article in the Bangkok Post political section yesterday regarding the current budget wranglings for the coming year. Apparently the Sports and Tourism Ministry appears to be one, controlled by other coalition parties, that looks set to lose out. I would imagine Pattaya City Hall and the various local tourism bodies benefit significantly from that budget.  Quite a competitive business getting your share of the pie and of course our local leaders are very experienced and adept at pleading poverty at the right time. Seen it so many times over the years in the run up to high season.

 

Amazingly somehow it always seems to work out just fine. Have they already managed to secure legitimate 4am opening ready for the high season ?

 

 

 

 

 

[shdmn]

1 hour ago, kinyara said:

Re the above 2010-2018 tourist numbers of Western countries in order of significance :

1) USA - Increased 7 years out of 8 & every year in the last 5.

2) UK - Increased 6 years out of 8, down an earth shattering 16k from the peak 1,003k 2 years ago.

3) Germany - Increased 7 years out of 8 & every year in the last 5.

4) Australia - Up and down and hovering around the 800k level the last 4 years.

5) France - Increased 8 years out of 8.

6) Sweden - Steady decline since 2011, 374k to 312k

7) Italy - Increased 8 years out of 8.

8 Holland - Increased 7 years out of 8

 

Where does this notion of declining Western tourist numbers come from ?

From people who have no clue what they are talking about.

[madmen]

4 hours ago, Leaver said:

ow, the main market here is Chinese and Indian package holiday tourists, who in general, do not indulge in this type of behaviour and / or entertainment on their holiday. 

 

This puts pressure on GoGo bars, traditional beer bars, and restaurants, to keep operating.  In my opinion, many will close in the near future.

Why would go go bars feel pressure from group's that very rarely go to them. in fact over the years seen Indians thrown out or banned by the staff at the front door. Nobody wants them

[kinyara]

5 hours ago, shdmn said:

From people who have no clue what they are talking about.

Unbelievable how blinkered and in denial some people can be about the growth and transformation of Pattaya in the last couple of decades. Are you a recent arrival or something.

[jacko45k]

10 hours ago, madmen said:

Why do people assume they should be in go go bars? There are a ton female and couples in the malls in Bangkok and no they are not flag followers and according to MasterCard they are big spenders

I thought we were discussing Pattaya. What they spend on tick in Bangkok won't keep Walking Street going.

[Leaver]

20 hours ago, madmen said:

Why would go go bars feel pressure from group's that very rarely go to them. in fact over the years seen Indians thrown out or banned by the staff at the front door. Nobody wants them

Decline in western tourists here, replaced by tourists who do not, or can't afford, to drink in bars, or go to GoGo shows, means these establishments are under pressure to generate revenue and pay their bills, let alone, make a profit.  Simple. 

[Leaver]

On 9/29/2019 at 6:22 PM, kinyara said:

Unbelievable how blinkered and in denial some people can be about the growth and transformation of Pattaya in the last couple of decades. Are you a recent arrival or something.

Growth in what, and what's Pattaya been transformed into?

[jacko45k]

4 hours ago, Leaver said:

Growth in what, and what's Pattaya been transformed into?

Traffic.... a car park!

[Leaver]

58 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Traffic.... a car park!

Yet, you can walk straight across 2nd Road, without having to wait for any traffic to pass. 

[jacko45k]

15 hours ago, Leaver said:

Yet, you can walk straight across 2nd Road, without having to wait for any traffic to pass. 

Personally I still do that with a sense of fear...... I get stuck in traffic on Railway line bypass junctions, Sukhumvit at Klang, and all the way down Klang. 

[Leaver]

On 10/2/2019 at 9:46 AM, jacko45k said:

Personally I still do that with a sense of fear...... I get stuck in traffic on Railway line bypass junctions, Sukhumvit at Klang, and all the way down Klang. 

Even in a low season, you had to wait for traffic to pass, and then hurry across 2nd Road.

 

Now, step down onto the road and walk straight across, and no need to hurry. 

 

A member posted some photos of no traffic on 2nd Road.  That's been my experience this low season. 

[fhickson]

On 9/30/2019 at 9:41 AM, Leaver said:

Decline in western tourists here, replaced by tourists who do not, or can't afford, to drink in bars, or go to GoGo shows, means these establishments are under pressure to generate revenue and pay their bills, let alone, make a profit.  Simple. 

may not just be the clientele. i have noticed myself going into bars and restaurants less frequently in pattaya because the staff and establishments feel more desperate.

 

for example, i went into a bar the other day and the server commented on where i set my glass on an ajoining table, then acted strange when i moved the coaster back, etc., but said there was no problem when i enquired about it (likely a misguided attempt at service, trying too hard, desperation, clingy, needy, etc).

 

a nice contrast was the thai food market where i had a nice dish cooked up and served with a smile and paid promply afterwards. the stand had plenty of customers and too busy to fret on where i put my beer or chopsticks or whether i just looked at the toothick canister and whether it was indeed full or not.

 

once the ball gets rolling you just dig your grave trying to correct a lack of customers problem. its like trying to pet a stray cat, if you pursue it the wring way it runs.

Edited October 7, 2019 by fhickson

[Leaver]

4 hours ago, fhickson said:

may not just be the clientele. i have noticed myself going into bars and restaurants less frequently in pattaya because the staff and establishments feel more desperate.

 

for example, i went into a bar the other day and the server commented on where i set my glass on an ajoining table, then acted strange when i moved the coaster back, etc., but said there was no problem when i enquired about it (likely a misguided attempt at service, trying too hard, desperation, clingy, needy, etc).

 

a nice contrast was the thai food market where i had a nice dish cooked up and served with a smile and paid promply afterwards. the stand had plenty of customers and too busy to fret on where i put my beer or chopsticks or whether i just looked at the toothick canister and whether it was indeed full or not.

 

once the ball gets rolling you just dig your grave trying to correct a lack of customers problem. its like trying to pet a stray cat, if you pursue it the wring way it runs.

There is an aging expat population here.  It's a holiday in Thailand that advertises the place as a future retirement destination to many.  If westerners stop coming here in the numbers that they previously were, Thailand will also see a reduction in expats also. 

[metempsychotic]

thoughts?

the world has moved on.

i think the old model of sex tourism is currently unsustainable.

 

girls can find punters online so the bar model is dying if not dead already.

 

its pretty difficult to sell cheap sex in a country that is no longer cheap to visit.

lacking the old demographic a new demographic must be found and businesses dependent on the older model are suffering as a result.

 

and pattaya doesnt really have that much to offer a new demographic.

 

 

[fhickson]

2 hours ago, metempsychotic said:

thoughts?

the world has moved on.

i think the old model of sex tourism is currently unsustainable.

 

girls can find punters online so the bar model is dying if not dead already.

 

its pretty difficult to sell cheap sex in a country that is no longer cheap to visit.

lacking the old demographic a new demographic must be found and businesses dependent on the older model are suffering as a result.

 

and pattaya doesnt really have that much to offer a new demographic.

 

 

so where are the old demographic going? cant be the cradle, therez always a frezh supply.

 

cant be vietnam or cambodia, its too difficult for older aging expats and the health csre is not there. whats left, bali?

[DEKEM]

2 hours ago, fhickson said:

so where are the old demographic going? cant be the cradle, therez always a frezh supply.

 

cant be vietnam or cambodia, its too difficult for older aging expats and the health csre is not there. whats left, bali?

look.  I've been to saigon and hanoi.  I've also been to the PI and many other places in southeast asia.  you got your pros and cons in each place.  bottomline, what I like about all these places is that you can live a decent happy life on a low budget that doesn't require you to suffer a lot.  I know a lot of people won't like me spilling all the beans about the reality over here.  but fact is,  the beans have already been spilled a long time ago.  the chinese are flooding in as are the indians and pretty much anybody else who reads the internet.  the way I see it, enjoy it while it lasts.  it won't be like this forever.  I remember back in the 70's when hong kong was like this.  now, look at hong kong.  I remember getting a room at the buena vista in macao for 15 dollars a night.  a room in siem reap for 5 dollars.  many happy memories....

[DEKEM]

2 minutes ago, madmen said:

You're talking expats when you say living? let's face it pattaya does attract a large number of the poor and no 800k no more play, but yes its dirt cheap to live there

first off, I moved to thailand so that I can live here on a low budget which met that I didn't have to work.  that's the bottomline.  having pretty girls to look at was secondary.  not complaining.  the 800k baht in a thai bank is irritating.  but if those are the rules so be it.  if the rules change in such a way that I cannot adhere to them anymore, I leave.  pure and simple.  I love thailand.  been here for over 20 years.  but if I have to leave, there are other places that I can go to which would allow me to live on a low budget.  I live a simple life.  don't keep up with the joneses.  am happy with a small studio apartment.  internet access, cable tv, walk on the beach, workout at the gym, etc.  no need for bars, smoking, drugs, gambling, etc.  add a few friends to talk to everyday.  what more do you need?

 

as for being poor...  I don't feel poor.  fact is, I think I have a better life than people making tons more money than I do.  I value happy memories.  to me, the most important thing in life.  you cannot get happy memories working 9 to 5 everyday.  memories that stick in your mind like when you first fall in love.

 

do I get bored you ask not working?  well, yeah.  everybody gets bored.  I got bored with living in san francisco after being there for 20 years.  so, what do I do when I get bored?  I hop on a plane and go to vietnam, cambodia, or the PI, etc.  round trip ticket is 100 to 200 dollars.  stay for a few days for change of pace.  in saigon they have capsule hotel that go for 6 dollars a night.  nothing special.  but cheap.  allows you to hang out there.  eat banhmis, drink coffee at highland coffee shop.  mingle with locals.  go shopping.  3 days later, back in thailand.  money spent is like a couple of hundred dollars.  no big deal.

 

much better than struggling in the cold living in an RV in new mexico, arizona, etc.  you should read up on all the suffering from RV people ranting about not being able to make ends meet on their ss.

[chrisandsu]

55 minutes ago, DEKEM said:

where else can you live on less than a thousand dollars a month?  4 dollar all you can eat breakfast buffets.  150 dollar a month apartments.  etc.  better than living in an RV struggling to make ends meet in the USA.  heck, in many cities in the USA, you are homeless if you only have a thousand dollars a month to live on.  in san francisco, even if you make 3000 dollars a month, you are homeless.  no joke.

There are some places you could live in the state’s on that sort of money . You can’t compare San Francisco with Pattaya . Try west Virginia .

[chrisandsu]

27 minutes ago, DEKEM said:

first off, I moved to thailand so that I can live here on a low budget which met that I didn't have to work.  that's the bottomline.  having pretty girls to look at was secondary.  not complaining.  the 800k baht in a thai bank is irritating.  but if those are the rules so be it.  if the rules change in such a way that I cannot adhere to them anymore, I leave.  pure and simple.  I love thailand.  been here for over 20 years.  but if I have to leave, there are other places that I can go to which would allow me to live on a low budget.  I live a simple life.  don't keep up with the joneses.  am happy with a small studio apartment.  internet access, cable tv, walk on the beach, workout at the gym, etc.  no need for bars, smoking, drugs, gambling, etc.  add a few friends to talk to everyday.  what more do you need?

 

as for being poor...  I don't feel poor.  fact is, I think I have a better life than people making tons more money than I do.  I value happy memories.  to me, the most important thing in life.  you cannot get happy memories working 9 to 5 everyday.  memories that stick in your mind like when you first fall in love.

 

do I get bored you ask not working?  well, yeah.  everybody gets bored.  I got bored with living in san francisco after being there for 20 years.  so, what do I do when I get bored?  I hop on a plane and go to vietnam, cambodia, or the PI, etc.  round trip ticket is 100 to 200 dollars.  stay for a few days for change of pace.  in saigon they have capsule hotel that go for 6 dollars a night.  nothing special.  but cheap.  allows you to hang out there.  eat banhmis, drink coffee at highland coffee shop.  mingle with locals.  go shopping.  3 days later, back in thailand.  money spent is like a couple of hundred dollars.  no big deal.

 

much better than struggling in the cold living in an RV in new mexico, arizona, etc.  you should read up on all the suffering from RV people ranting about not being able to make ends meet on their ss.

I do agree with a lot of this statement though . I’m nowhere near retirement but if that day does come I also will want somewhere warm and cheap (certainly not Pattaya though ) . 

[DEKEM]

2 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

There are some places you could live in the state’s on that sort of money . You can’t compare San Francisco with Pattaya . Try west Virginia .

I looked for places in the usa where I could live on a thousand dollars a month.  didn't find many places that equal the standard of living I have in southeast asia.  I don't know anything about west virginia.  but let me ask you this, can you rent a furnished studio apartment that goes for month to month for less than 200 dollars?

[DEKEM]

1 minute ago, chrisandsu said:

I do agree with a lot of this statement though . I’m nowhere near retirement but if that day does come I also will want somewhere warm and cheap (certainly not Pattaya though ) . 

pattaya is not so bad.  I spend half my time each month in pattaya.  the other half in bangkok.  what I like about bangkok is they have 45 shopping malls in a 3 mile radius.  that's not including the HUGE flea market and chinatown.  being a mall rat that likes to do a lot of window shopping, I love bangkok.  pattaya is not so bad either, I go to the terminal 21 food court often to eat lunch.  air/con, modern, you can get a plate of food for a dollar.  2 plates will fill you up.  fruit smoothies for 80 cents.  afterwards, take a walk on the beach to work off the meal.  people watch.

[moe666]

In my area of Chiang Mai the yearly influx of visitors from Canada, and the UK has started on cue. These folks arrive around the middle of Oct. or this year early. Some folks are coming because they escape the cold of canada and the UK they will be her until Feb. or March. Chinese seem to be picking up as well more than usual around the sois and in the coffee shops.

 I know it would make a few happy if Thailand had a low Hi season but I for one would like to see a lot of tourist because I have friends who have businesses in CM both Thai and farang they need these tourist to come and spend there money, mainly to stay in business.

[madmen]

21 minutes ago, DEKEM said:

I looked for places in the usa where I could live on a thousand dollars a month.  didn't find many places that equal the standard of living I have in southeast asia.  I don't know anything about west virginia.  but let me ask you this, can you rent a furnished studio apartment that goes for month to month for less than 200 dollars?

With fleas cockroaches, mould, a concrete mattress, Thai cardboard furniture, a TV from 1980, and a vinyl lounge with a squeaky ceiling fan?

errrm no that domain is reserved for the poorest of expats right here who after the visa crackdown are packing bags thankfully

 

[DEKEM]

1 minute ago, madmen said:

With fleas cockroaches, mould, a concrete mattress, Thai cardboard furniture, a TV from 1980, and a vinyl lounge with a squeaky ceiling fan?

errrm no that domain is reserved for the poorest of expats right here who after the visa crackdown are packing bags thankfully

 

most of the expats I know have the money to live in thailand.  EVEN put up the 800k baht in a thai bank.  they just don't want to do that.  fact of the matter, most expats who are old enough have ss or some other pension which is over 35k baht a month.  if you have an income of over 35k baht a month, you are not poor here in southeast asia.  you are not poor in most of the 180+ countries in the world.

 

as for the thought that an apartment that rents for 200 dollars a month being dirty and beat up like you described...  well, yes, there are places like that, but more so that are not.  the same holds true for other cities in southeast asia including saigon, hanoi, manila, etc....  a few years back, I had a friend rent a 3 bedroom condo in a gated community in southern china for 300 dollars a month.  place was immaculate.

[madmen]

21 minutes ago, DEKEM said:

most of the expats I know have the money to live in thailand.  EVEN put up the 800k baht in a thai bank.  they just don't want to do that.

Its always been 800k.Did they just wake up one day and all you're buddies just changed their minds at the same time?

Makes no sense. Truth is they woke up one day to the rather awful news their own embassy pulled the rug and the house of cards came crashing down...and that's EXACTLY what happened!

[kingdong]

I,m sick to death of all you prophets of doom out there I own a bar and it's heaving every night,i,be never had it so good.by the way it's for sale of anyone's interested.

[madmen]

42 minutes ago, DEKEM said:

do you want to know how easy it is to get 800k baht?  if I were evil, I could just declare to the authorities in the usa that I was disabled and could not work anymore.  find a doctor to confirm my disability.  and the rest is history.  I know many people doing this. the government gave this one guy over 20k dollars upfront. and apologized to him saying they wrongly didn't give him the disability years ago.   I still remember this guy I met in san francisco telling me he was able to convince the authorities that he was allergic to dust.  and he received enough disability to support his life style in san francisco.

I seriously have no idea what your talking about