If all expats left: Little impact on Thai economy

[LomSak27]

Just now, Just Weird said:

For that to be the case you have to assume, very optimistically, that the local expats/retirees keep those businesses going!   What about the millions of tourists that are the real supporters of those businesses that you have excluded?

Unless they do something and fast they are ALSO losing a good segment of those million of tourists that are the real supporters of those businesses, 

 

 Of course there will always be tourists, but numbers are down across the board. That at Ground level not on TAT's mystical ethereal floating headcounts of joy. It reads like a laundry list; Koh Samui, Chiang Mai, Phuket, Pattaya. all down and the Chinese who were touted as the saviors, as farang westerners gently (and not so gently) are nudged to the exits, are down. LNY holidays expect 20 % less. 

No doubt this is exciting & Happy news for the OP and JW, but, for many thais involved in the tourist industry, these are hard times. If the economy was booming in Thailand this would be a minor hiccup. Surprise, Surprise, the economy isn't booming.

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by LomSak27

[thequietman]

Ever heard of the 'multiplier effect' ????

 

If you haven't, then your post makes no sense. 

 

 

[Just Weird]

1 minute ago, LomSak27 said:

Unless they do something and fast they are ALSO losing those million of tourists that are the real supporters of those businesses

That frequently repeated (on Thaivisa) statement never has any empirical evidence to back it up so they really don't have to worry.

[FritsSikkink]

Most of the houses and land are in Thai hands anyway.

[Assurancetourix]

1 hour ago, cmarshall said:

I'll bet it's a lot closer to 50k foreigners.  The 38 million tourist visits as a whole contribute between 6% and 10% of GDP.  No way the expats amount to half that.

 

I have the impression that you forget in your calculations the expats who come from Asia, the Chinese, the Koreans who own factories in Thailand;
the millions of Burmese, Laotians, Cambodians who work like slaves on fishing boats and in canneries ...

You go around in circles between the Germans, the Australians, the English, the Americans of the USA, the rare French and just as rare Italians and Norwegian ...

If all the slaves mentioned above suddenly left Thailand, this country would be in a beautiful s.hit because they do the dirty jobs that the Thai people do not want to do.

[LomSak27]

Just now, Just Weird said:

That frequently repeated (on Thaivisa) statement never has any empirical evidence to back it up so they really don't have to worry.

 TATs repeated courting of Middle Eastern & Indian Tourists turns turtle on your statement, just like the Phoenix.

 

What Me Worry?!

Edited January 23, 2020 by LomSak27

[ThomasThBKK]

2 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

 

I have the impression that you forget in your calculations the expats who come from Asia, the Chinese, the Koreans who own factories in Thailand;
the millions of Burmese, Laotians, Cambodians who work like slaves on fishing boats and in canneries ...

You go around in circles between the Germans, the Australians, the English, the Americans of the USA, the rare French and just as rare Italians and Norwegian ...

If all the slaves mentioned above suddenly left Thailand, this country would be in a beautiful s.hit because they do the dirty jobs that the Thai people do not want to do.

 

We can just look 1 country away, a perfect example: https://southeastasiaglobe.com/how-to-restore-sihanoukville/

 

 

[Just Weird]

2 minutes ago, LomSak27 said:

10 minutes ago, Just Weird said:

That frequently repeated (on Thaivisa) statement never has any empirical evidence to back it up so they really don't have to worry.

 What Me Worry?!

I said "they", not "you".

 

5 minutes ago, LomSak27 said:

TATs repeated courting of Middle Eastern & Indian Tourists turns turtle on your statement

Tourists are tourists, where they come from is hardly relevant if they're spending money.

[digibum]

6 minutes ago, Just Weird said:

That frequently repeated (on Thaivisa) statement never has any empirical evidence to back it up so they really don't have to worry.

 

I've been hearing the same "the tourists are going to flee" thing for close to 20 years now. 

 

I actually like OP's take on this as I once did some back of the napkin math after reading the gazillionth "Retirees are going to flee and it will drag all of Thailand down" pontification on TV. 

 

I opted to only have half the retirees leaving because, well, a lot of folks have money and a family and aren't going anywhere unless kicked out.  The shock to the system is minimal, at best.  And it would never happen in one year unless the government expelled everyone.  It would be a long drawn out process, probably lasting 3 - 5 years.  Over that period of time, the Thai economy would barely notice their absence. 

 

Someone else pointed out the societal impact and I agree that that is different.  But, supposedly, according to a lot of these TV folks, Thais only care about their money, and it's their monetary contribution to society that they always cite as a threat if they leave, so as an exercise in offering a small sliver of common sense and showing people that they're not worth as much as they think they are, it serves that purpose. 

 

[Traubert]

27 minutes ago, Enoon said:

 

Another accountants view of the "The Economy", as if it where one homogenous lump.

 

Failing to  take "account" of the fact that the expat baht is not spread evenly around/through the economy/country/society.

 

Ignoring it's importance to "embedded" macro/micro economies, in regional/local communities, which would definitely notice it's departure.

 

 

 

That's sociology rather than accountancy so you can't really blame him. ????

[ThaiBunny]

1 hour ago, Roy Baht said:

Conclusion: overall impact of all expats pulling all their assets out of Thailand on the same day, negligible to none!

A variation on that age-old question of the self-important when frustrated about something or other: "Don't you know who I am?"!!

[digibum]

10 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

 

I have the impression that you forget in your calculations the expats who come from Asia, the Chinese, the Koreans who own factories in Thailand;
the millions of Burmese, Laotians, Cambodians who work like slaves on fishing boats and in canneries ...

You go around in circles between the Germans, the Australians, the English, the Americans of the USA, the rare French and just as rare Italians and Norwegian ...

If all the slaves mentioned above suddenly left Thailand, this country would be in a beautiful s.hit because they do the dirty jobs that the Thai people do not want to do.

 

Yes, but the slaves don't come on TV and threaten to leave every time immigration makes a change. 

 

If anything, OP grossly overestimated the number of grumpy old farangs that think Thailand should bend over backwards because they spend 60,000 baht a month here. 

[cmarshall]

39 minutes ago, ThomasThBKK said:

extremely simplified non sense calculation.

 

Most expat workers here are in higher positions, CEOs of BMW and co., Samsung etc.

You can say what you want but if westerners leave that will also include all japanese and koreans (Toyota, Samsung etc).

 

If they all have to leave, then for a damn good reason. That reason would be so bad that all above mentioned companies would be shut, all foreign direct investment would stop and the economy would be majorly skrewed.

That reason  will be the same reason that will stop tourists from coming here.

 

I think the net effect of the loss of all the expats on Thai GDP would be zilch.  However, there could be local effects.  The value of real estate at the upper end in Bangkok might suffer because prices in the real estate market, like those in the stock market are set at the margins.  So if the number of transactions were to drop because of the absence of foreigners, the prevailing prices would also drop even if the foreigners were not that numerous.

[RichardColeman]

1 hour ago, Roy Baht said:

5% of GDP is a lot of money but there again it’s not earth shattering, it’s only about equal to a GDP increase in a good year so I suspect the country would get by.

I imagine if there was a serious outbreak of Chinese flu and they stop travelling, that 5% may well account for 50%

[Assurancetourix]

1 minute ago, digibum said:

Yes, but the slaves don't come on TV and threaten to leave every time immigration makes a change. 

 

If anything, OP grossly overestimated the number of grumpy old farangs that think Thailand should bend over backwards because they spend 60,000 baht a month here. 

Largely overestimates the number of expat farang; maybe, maybe not ;
but for me his departure post talks about expats;
Now the Burmese, Laotian, Vietnamese, Cambodian etc. who work here are expats who certainly spend a lot less than the old cranky farang but on the other hand they make the economy work;
if they leave suddenly, a good part of this economy will also stop suddenly;
it will be a disaster for Thailand which will have looked for it well;

 

Thailand LOS = Land Of Slavery 

[Assurancetourix]

2 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

The value of real estate at the upper end in Bangkok might suffer

We see that you do not read the alarming news concerning real estate for sale in Thailand and particularly in Bangkok.
The prices are very much overestimated;
last year, almost 30% of unsold property remained on the promoters' arms.
It's a very big bubble ready to explode ...
With that the pollution and the " I don't care about" from the Thai people will not fix the thing.

There will be a major correction and I fear that the 1997 crisis will be nothing compared to what will happen soon.

[talahtnut]

If the Dollar goes tits up, we may all have to leave.

[LomSak27]

Just now, digibum said:

I've been hearing the same "the tourists are going to flee" thing for close to 20 years now. 

 

Premature senility is creeping in but, did you miss the part where over fifty hotels were for sale in Chiang Mai as december 2018? Yes you can look it up here on TV.  Oh and that is not because they are going broke but because they made so much money they want to share the wealth ....  ... don't throw up on your keyboard, that is actually what the Northern Thai hoteliers assoc. said in the news release about this ominous news. Remember that was before the big smoke of hot season 2019. 

 

Cry about it, I do feel a little bad because of the people that worked in it and now don't have jobs. OTOH I will be snorkeling in the Malukus this hot season. a needed break from all the negativity in the land of smiles.

[Matzzon]

55 minutes ago, Yinn said:

They can get job, same 99.8% the other family. Be ok.

 

The sex workers can get job, like 99.9% the other people. Be ok.

 

True, less farang food. Be ok.

 

How everyone else live?

 

thailand not have enough worker for the job. We must get worker from Burma, Cambodia and Laos. 3 million now. 

If 150,000 expat go, maybe = 150,000 less foreign worker. 

 

Some benefit (very small), hospital less busy, less traffic, less pollution, house be cheaper some place eg Hua Hin, Pattaya, Phuket, less crime.

 

If all the 800,000 baht visa bank leave= baht drop maybe a little bit= tourist more happy, export more happy. Import more expensive.

 

TVF will be very lonely. 

 

Sure, people can get jobs. As you are Thai, you will know the fact how happy people that do not have to work is in Thailand. That´s why I say it will hurt them. The people that do work, produce about as much in one week that a western worker do in a single day. That´s just a fact, and nothing to try to sneak away from.

After that you will have the income. Here we are many time talking about undereducated poor Isaan families. They have not much else to offer the world than working in a farm, due to that they will not have an education for another work or the money to get the education needed. Maybe they can work at the farm, but generally that does not give the ekonomical freedom and the comfort they one had. Not at all saying that they will not survive. Thai people and families are masters of surviving on minimal amount of money. However, you can not say it will not hurt the people on the ground, because that will also be a fact. What you are saying is that everyone will be able to live with the pain of losing a better life.

Same there. Thai sexworker many time chose that profession out of the reason there is nothing else available for them. Not sating all of them, but most of them.

 

If you do not like a variety in you diet, I can understand that you do not care about international food (Not farang food, that phrase does not exist). That´s ok, just stick to pla ra and kapi, no problem.

After that you have your weird view of the positive effects on the employment market. That´s the most laughable I´ve ever read. You do realize that the kind of work that Thailand gives to the 3 million immigrant workers from Myanmar (Not Burma), Laos and Cambodia. That´s just because the Thais do not want to do it for the saluries that the Thai companies offer for that kind of rather hard work and many hours.

After that you are trying to state that there will be more jobs for the Thais losing their sex works, restaurant works poor uneducated families that ain´t no longer provided for. Why do you think foreigners come to work in Thailand, and why do you think they only have works that are not reserved for Thais? Ooh! I can tell you. That is because they work in language education, technical work, engineers as well as developing the future online markets for Thai companies. They are recruited out of the reason it´s a demand for their knowledge and education. In other words, there is no people in the country that can do their work maintaining the same quality. Those jobs you want to give to sex workers, poor families and restaurant servers that lost their jobs. Great Yinn! You just broke the last brick in both the educational and high profession systems.

 

Do not worry about TVF beeing lonly. Everybody that has left Thailand are still here and bashing 100 % everyday. All is good with the forum.

Last but not least you are taking crime, hospital occupancy, traffic congestion problems as well as pollution and house prices. if you have so poor knowledge about your own country, then it´s very sad. However, regarding the house prices you might have a point.

Edited January 23, 2020 by Matzzon

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, Just Weird said:

For that to be the case you have to assume, very optimistically, that the local expats/retirees keep those businesses going!   What about the millions of tourists that are the real supporters of those businesses that you have excluded?

Sure, that´s why I signed some.

[Gweiloman]

1 hour ago, anterian said:

All I can say is my village would be very unhappy if I left, no sponsorship of the village football team, no sponsorship of village events and no interest free loans to many families. 

They managed before your appearance on the scene and they will continue to manage after you have departed.

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, CNXexpat said:

Many expats (like me) don´t support families because they don´t need support. Not all girlfriends/wifes come from poor families.

 

The bar scene is mostly visited from tourists. The impact of expats they prefer happy hours is small. And in Chiang Mai by example doesn´t exist a bar scene like in Pattaya.

 

Also Thais like western food and there are also the tourists. What do you think how many western restaurants are in Thailand? And how often the expats visit them? Not every expat every day. 

When you post many expats, you are talking of about 10-20%

 

No bar scene in Chiang Mai, sure. Forgot your glasses in your home country?

I never said all restaurants serving western food. Just that it will have an impact.

[Gweiloman]

How about if we put aside working expats and only focus on those who are here on retirement visas and marriage visas but not working. What would be the impact?

 

I would say that it would be negligible. In my ex-gf's village, there is only one other farang but the locals have zero respect as he is a known drunk. His contribution to the society is effectively zero as his wife and daughters both work in the next big city. In fact, they support his drinking habits.

 

In my gf's village, there are no farangs and no one from that village is known to be with any farangs. My personal contribution is limited to the occasional meals whenever I'm there and a small handout every now and again. So the only person that really 'benefits' from me is my gf. She had a job before she met me, she will be able to secure a job if needed, when I'm no longer around.

 

Too many retirees overestimate their value to Thailand.

[ThomasThBKK]

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Zo8MCozOjtQJ:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-22/u-a-e-raises-the-stakes-to-stop-foreigners-from-leaving-dubai+&cd=9&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=th

 

the UAE disagrees with OP, they just allowed all foreigners to 100% own companies.

It's a wealthy country and yet they can't get enough of foreigners, has a reason, i would suppose.

 

Quote

“More than the money, the Gulf states are competing for human capital, global businesses and industry leaders,” said M.R. Raghu, the head of research at Kuwait Financial Centre SAK, which manages more than $3 billion. “We expect other Gulf economies to introduce such measures in a phased manner.”

 

Under the new U.A.E. rules, which take effect by year-end, non-Emiratis can control 100 percent of a company anywhere in the country, forgoing the requirement to have a local partner outside of free zones. Professionals working in medical, scientific, research and technical fields and top students could be eligible for residency permits of up to 10 years.

 

 

Disclaimer: Might be biased, but have temp residency there. And parts of my money. Something Thailand never allowed me to do.

[ThomasThBKK]

2 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

How about if we put aside working expats and only focus on those who are here on retirement visas and marriage visas but not working. What would be the impact?

 

I would say that it would be negligible. In my ex-gf's village, there is only one other farang but the locals have zero respect as he is a known drunk. His contribution to the society is effectively zero as his wife and daughters both work in the next big city. In fact, they support his drinking habits.

 

In my gf's village, there are no farangs and no one from that village is known to be with any farangs. My personal contribution is limited to the occasional meals whenever I'm there and a small handout every now and again. So the only person that really 'benefits' from me is my gf. She had a job before she met me, she will be able to secure a job if needed, when I'm no longer around.

 

Too many retirees overestimate their value to Thailand.

 

No.

You can't pick.

 

You are either foreigner friendly or foreigner unfriendly. 

[saengd]

Interesting how many posters didn't read or comprehend the context, even after it was pointed out to them:

 

The subject is Western expats.....not all expats.

The context is economic impact.....not social impact.

 

Who knows what some posters might think the thread is about at this rate, the level of taxation in Laos perhaps! The OP is correct it's outrageously high. ????

[BobbyL]

Income tax would take a big hit from the number of expats earning decent salaries. 

 

As an example, the international school where I work in central Bangkok has around 100 expat teachers. I would guess that the average monthly tax paid by each teacher is approx 15,000THB. That is 1.5M a month income tax generated by just one international school in Bangkok. 

[saengd]

26 minutes ago, LomSak27 said:

 

Premature senility is creeping in but, did you miss the part where over fifty hotels were for sale in Chiang Mai as december 2018? Yes you can look it up here on TV.  Oh and that is not because they are going broke but because they made so much money they want to share the wealth ....  ... don't throw up on your keyboard, that is actually what the Northern Thai hoteliers assoc. said in the news release about this ominous news. Remember that was before the big smoke of hot season 2019. 

 

Cry about it, I do feel a little bad because of the people that worked in it and now don't have jobs. OTOH I will be snorkeling in the Malukus this hot season. a needed break from all the negativity in the land of smiles.

In all fairness those 50 hotels were all opened in the last five years in anticipation of the Chinese invasion, many are not even true hotels.

[saengd]

5 minutes ago, BobbyL said:

Income tax would take a big hit from the number of expats earning decent salaries. 

 

As an example, the international school where I work in central Bangkok has around 100 expat teachers. I would guess that the average monthly tax paid by each teacher is approx 15,000THB. That is 1.5M a month income tax generated by just one international school in Bangkok. 

Against government revenues of nearly 4 trillion baht, yep, that 1.5 mill. baht farang teacher tax would be a serious loss!

 

Thailand's Government Revenue is forecasted to be 3,720.639 THB bn in Sep 2020 as reported by International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook. It records an increase from the last reported number of 3,593.864 THB bn in Sep 2019.

 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/forecast-government-revenue

[Matzzon]

2 hours ago, Traubert said:

Truth a little painful eh?

 

What did these people do before Hank rode into town? They survived then, and they'll survive without him. The tourists will keep the bar scene going, the expats don't if they're all tucked up in Isaan, tourists  will keep the catering trade going too. You're confusing expats with tourists.

 

Just to underline the high estimates the op used, he used 200k. The number is really 150k including 79k retirees. This in a population of 63m is insignificant in it's own right.

What truth? Yours?

Whenever did I post that they will not survive? When did I post that the bar scene will die? That you want to take things to the edge, that´s entirely your problem. The only confusion here is that you do not understand what you read, and quote what you thought you read. I posted that they will definitely feel the differens. 

Last you are talking the numbers again. The numbers are only important to the government. Not to the single families and the single individuals affected.

Edited January 23, 2020 by Matzzon