If all expats left: Little impact on Thai economy

[natway09]

The truth hurts ?

Some of the local expat bars would close, the working girls would work on the tourists more to get "money for Mum" the supermarkets would stock a bit less "farang food"

& Thailand would still end the year with a good current account surplus.

I would be miserable back home in the cold

[Mac98]

Taken at face value, that 5% could have serious impact. Most government budgets have fixed expenditures that consume the greater portion of government income. That 5% could amount to 30% of disposable income.

[Parsve]

Havenent you miss the thing that also expats have to eat and drink daily, shop clothes, pay rent, water, electric and so on? Or do you believe that expats just come here, put money in the bank and sit down to starv them self to death.

[SiSePuede419]

But but but beer bars in Pattaya would close! ????

[Fairynuff]

On 1/23/2020 at 11:35 AM, ChipButty said:

You need to get a new hobby or get out more

To support the Thai economy?

[Thaidream]

On 1/23/2020 at 12:40 PM, Pravda said:

I think that if enough white skin leaves other foreign (Asian) tourist won't perceive Thailand as a desirable destination and that is where OP's math does not have any meaning whatsoever.

Yes, indeed. Setniment is a major part of the equation.

 

On a pure statistical basis- if everey expat left and that includes all countries to include Japan; China and India as well as the rest of Asean- statistic  wise the GDP would  suffer a blip but unless that blip was replaced by other income there would be certain areas of Thailand that would show an economic downturn- Chiang Mai ; Pattaya and a few others.

 

The number of tourists would diminish much moreso than what is currently occuring- because of sentiment.  No one wants to come to a country and not feel welcome.  If all expats left- there would be a social media storm with explicit reasons posted daily and the tourist business would decline to a point where there was a radical dip in GDP.

 

Why has Thailand  lost its allure as a retirement destination- loss of sentiment coupled with cost; poor weather/air; surly immigration officers and rules and generally a feeling of being unwelcome.  Ev ery time an Immigration Officer asks why do you come to Thailand so often or flings a passport back at someone- it goes around the World on social media.  It may only happen  a few times out of thousands of visitors- but once social media picks it up- it appears to happen as a matter of routine.

 

Thailand  is facing a real dilemma- for too long it felt it could get away with anything- just build more malls; more hotels; raise prices and they will still come.  

 

They won't come and there is a significant number of expats leaving and in the future they will not be replaced by expats  coming to Thailand to live. That also includes foreign investment  There are just too many negatives in Thailand at the moment and too many other places in the World at the right price and offering the right welcome.

 

 

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

Your words.

'Cos I can.

 

Now, going back to Yinn's questions. Are you going to answer them or simply pour scorn on her second language skills like some playground bully?

Yes! I was right. You were going to repeat yourself. Now it´s 3 times you have asked me if I am going to answer them. Curiously I can´t find them. Can you please point them out to me. No you can´t, because she have not asked any questions in reply to my initial post which were when you started your discussion regarding unanswered questions.

Please go find them, and I will answer them. I bet you will have to make them up yourself. If you mean the 3 questions that are in the second long post, I do not regard them as questions.

If I´ve ever worked at a palm plantation? No and I do not intend to do, and the people working in the lines of business I mentioned will not want that kind of work.

Everyone? That question she answered herself before asking by mentioning 99 % of Thai people which is close to everyone.

Regarding education and my Thai counterpart. Yes, we both have enough education to understand how it works.

[SiSePuede419]

29 minutes ago, Parsve said:

Havenent you miss the thing that also expats have to eat and drink daily, shop clothes, pay rent, water, electric and so on? Or do you believe that expats just come here, put money in the bank and sit down to starv them self to death.

I ate at David's Kitchen in Chiang Mai.

 

I got two glasses of wine at David's because it was reasonably priced, the fixe Prix menu plus a pasta dish.

 

Out the door for under 3000B for two people.

 

And I also ate at Locus in Chiang Rai.  1500B per person fixed menu.  They wanted 2000B for a bottle of wine. 

 

I balked.  I am a 100B a bottle Trader Joe's Charles Shaw reverse wine snob [SNIFF]

 

Guess what?

 

All of the customers at Locus were Asian and 90% of customers at David's were Asian.

 

Thailand doesn't need Yanks, Limeys, Ozzies nor Eurotrash Russians to survive, thank you very much. ????

Edited January 24, 2020 by SiSePuede419
Corrected Autocorrection.

[brokenbone]

6 hours ago, saengd said:

Perhaps you should read the OP again to better understand what he wrote. He allowed every western expat 1 million baht per year and then tripled it, is that not enough for groceries or are you an exceptionally big eater!

no, he only thought of taking out 800k, he specified it was a one time event,

he never thought of the spending

[Brickbat]

Thais are resilient. They recover quite quickly. Mai pen rai and why you think too much is their psychology. Bodes well when the going gets tough.....yup, they get going. We ruminate and extrapolate....

[saengd]

17 minutes ago, brokenbone said:

no, he only thought of taking out 800k, he specified it was a one time event,

he never thought of the spending

If you'd understood the OP's post even a little bit you'd realize he doesn't mention 800k baht, instead he assumes every Western expat and retirees has 3 mill. baht that gets circulated through the economy each year before they all leave!!!

 

It may have been Einsteins second law of physical relevance and positioning that said, the greater the physical distance from the topic, the more likely it is the response will be irrelevant to the question.....how true.

Edited January 24, 2020 by saengd

[Yinn]

3 hours ago, brianthainess said:

Never do i see

I never see a penguin. 

but have, sure.

you ever see palm plantation work?

 

3 hours ago, brianthainess said:

 

Thais doing hard manual labour in the full sun 6 days a week, 8+ hrs a day

8 hour per day. Pfffft Part time?

 

 

3 hours ago, brianthainess said:

 

all year, that is why you have so many immigrant workers wake up Yinn. look at the pollution, rather burn off sugar cane, than employ people to clean it or god forbid do it themselves.

I invite to come work our palm plantation. One month. Film and show YouTube. 

9 hour per day.

Have clean air in Ranong, be good for you. No burning.

Hope you have good fitness.

 

 

 

 

[sandrabbit]

yet another baiting topic which has been discussed so many times before, get a life.

[DannyCarlton]

10 minutes ago, Yinn said:

I invite to come work our palm plantation. One month. Film and show YouTube. 

9 hour per day.

Some are 12 hour day, 7 days per week. i'm sure that the YouTube video isn't 12 hours long. If it was it would show 4 hours eating, 4 hours sleeping, 2 hours playing on mobile phone and 2 hours working.

 

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by DannyCarlton

[Yinn]

1 hour ago, ThomasThBKK said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/21/such-brutality-tricked-into-slavery-in-the-thai-fishing-industry

 

 

yeah sure... this is reality. 

 

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/series/modern-day-slavery-in-focus+world/thailand

I know about that, I agree, is terrible.

 

99% + are not like that. 99%+ are happy work in thailand for more money. 

That not the reality for 99%+. I know Burmese worker PERSONALY. 

 

That not foreign worker, that is slave. Some people very cruel.

If ONLY 1% is not the REALITY. 

They come work in thailand for a better life. 99% win.

 

 

[Isaanbiker]

This country without expats would be like a hot dog without mustard. 

[DannyCarlton]

1 minute ago, Yinn said:

I know about that, I agree, is terrible.

 

99% + are not like that. 99%+ are happy work in thailand for more money. 

That not the reality for 99%+. I know Burmese worker PERSONALY. 

 

That not foreign worker, that is slave. Some people very cruel.

If ONLY 1% is not the REALITY. 

They come work in thailand for a better life. 99% win.

 

 

I know Cambodian construction workers in Pattaya. For 99% it is reality.

[Yinn]

2 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

Some are 12 hour day, 7 days per week. i'm sure that the YouTube video isn't 12 hors long. If it was it would show 4 hours eating, 4 hours sleeping, 2 hours playing on mobile phone and 2 hours working.

Highlight package.

One hour for lunch. 

If sleeping, play on phone I will sack him.

 

[Yinn]

Just now, DannyCarlton said:

I know Cambodian construction workers in Pattaya. For 99% it is reality.

Slave? Like fishing boat? Can not leave, not salary?

 

Why they not run away? 

[DannyCarlton]

2 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Slave? Like fishing boat? Can not leave, not salary?

 

Why they not run away? 

They have their passports taken from them when they arrive. Same as many Thai workers in the Middle East and Chinese workers in England.

Edited January 24, 2020 by DannyCarlton

[ThomasThBKK]

6 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

They have their passports taken from them when they arrive. Same as many Thai workers in the Middle East and Chinese workers in England.

Jup. It's the norm: https://psmag.com/social-justice/why-are-migrant-workers-passports-still-being-held-hostage-in-uae

 

They can't do anything against it, they are all illegal workers and if they report it they just end up in prison and vanish from earth.

[DannyCarlton]

17 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Highlight package.

One hour for lunch. 

If sleeping, play on phone I will sack him.

 

So you run the plantation and employ illegal Burmese workers?

[Roy Baht]

35 minutes ago, sandrabbit said:

yet another baiting topic which has been discussed so many times before, get a life.

Yet another TV poster (who has enough time time to read all the posts he hates) telling someone to get a life. YOU get a life! ????

[Autonuaq]

Depending on what you define as expat.

 

Thailand can not do anything because Thai are not willing to do the work that the people of the neightbouring countries do.

 

So the thai economy will collapse because work the is needed is not done.

 

Beside that many companies will move out too and leave behinde unemploued thai,as we have seen with seagate not so long ago.

 

Thailand will fall back even more then is does already.

 

Do not forget you have to compare thailand with a country like South Korea. As well that the neigbourong countires as close to bypass Thailand.

 

Expats are so essential for Thailand nore then the Thai admit. If this was not the case the would have been on the same level as a country like South Korea both started at the same level when they started the Asean intiative.

[ianezy0]

57 minutes ago, Yinn said:

I will definitely do a few 12 hour shifts if you can guarantee I will have a body like this guy at the end of my work ????

[Isaanbiker]

36 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Slave? Like fishing boat? Can not leave, not salary?

 

Why they not run away? 

There was only one guy who could run on water. 

[saengd]

48 minutes ago, Autonuaq said:

Depending on what you define as expat.

 

Thailand can not do anything because Thai are not willing to do the work that the people of the neightbouring countries do.

 

So the thai economy will collapse because work the is needed is not done.

 

Beside that many companies will move out too and leave behinde unemploued thai,as we have seen with seagate not so long ago.

 

Thailand will fall back even more then is does already.

 

Do not forget you have to compare thailand with a country like South Korea. As well that the neigbourong countires as close to bypass Thailand.

 

Expats are so essential for Thailand nore then the Thai admit. If this was not the case the would have been on the same level as a country like South Korea both started at the same level when they started the Asean intiative.

Big sigh........You're comparing apples and G strings!

 

 

[Max69xl]

On 1/23/2020 at 11:37 AM, DannyCarlton said:

Even given the dubious facts you have quoted, they don't support the conclusion you have drawn.

That's almost like saying "tourism" doesn't affect thai economy. He used 200k expats spending 1 million baht/year in his example, and an average tourist stays ~14 days in Thailand. A tourist today does not spend a lot of money compared to what they used to do. They spend a lot less than what people think. 1 million baht a year spent by an expat compared to a tourist staying 2 weeks, that's a lot of tourists. Every tourist doesn't return every year, but the expat is still here spending money on living expenses and hopefully some at restaurants and bars. 

Imo, expats do help the local economy. 

[Thingamabob]

The financial impact of all expats leaving Thailand would be negligible to the overall economy. Some families would suffer though, especially in the north east.

[Thingamabob]

On 1/23/2020 at 2:04 PM, BobbyL said:

Income tax would take a big hit from the number of expats earning decent salaries. 

 

As an example, the international school where I work in central Bangkok has around 100 expat teachers. I would guess that the average monthly tax paid by each teacher is approx 15,000THB. That is 1.5M a month income tax generated by just one international school in Bangkok. 

....which is a tiny amount in the overall economy.