If all expats left: Little impact on Thai economy

[Jaxxper]

Get your point but if the black money disappeared ( Think everybody knows what I mean) then the people that would suffer would be those in the “service” industry.

The Thai economy above the table would probably see no great impact as much ( Read “All”) of that money doesn’t benefit the Thai economy directly. Yes I know there’s sales tax on stuff that these service industries buy over the counter but I’m guessing a lions share goes to support families and kids.

Haven't performed any algorithms to prove that it’s just a gut feel.

i agree that some businesses would fall by the wayside in the entertainment areas but that’s business. Just my view.

[Tony45]

Deep and meaningful mathematics. Out here in Isaan life is not always measured by baht even though we spend more than 1 000 000 a year supporting families and the local economy. Your global maths are right but not apply here in Isaan.

[Muzarella]

I agree. Very few Western expats long time residents do investments in Thailand affecting Thai economy numbers or the job market....just the tourists, that in 2 weeks spends what most expats residents spend in 3 months. 

[Gene1960]

3 hours ago, Yinn said:

Slave? Like fishing boat? Can not leave, not salary?

 

Why they not run away? 

Yinn. 

My Thai friend says that the slaver fishing boats belong to the Chinese. I thought that the fishing fleet in the west coast is controlled by Thais. What is correct? 

[rickudon]

Hmm. the original claim of course, does rest on some dubious statistics. For instance, 150,000 expats? The British Embassy thinks there are 73,000 UK expats alone. I'm sure that those immigration figures only refer to those on Annual extensions, not those on visas (which quite a lot of expats use as they do not stay for the whole year, or they get new visas).

I have previously done 'the calculation' of expat GDP for Udon Thani province, using an often suggested figure of 5,000 expats. The result is about 3% of GDP. Not great, but not insignificant. It also means one farang is worth 6 Thais, GDP wise.

 

Also, there is a knock on effect, Some parts of the economy will be affected more than others, because expats tend to spend more on them - most do a few domestic flights per year, some businesses have more expat customers than others. So that 3% might just be the initial effect, could start a cascade. Also some expats are in critical jobs where a high level of expertise is needed - those companies may suffer if the expertise is not available locally.

 

Of course, unlikely we will all leave at one time, so probably impacts would not be so obvious - except of course on the families of the expats living here.

 

Policies and high baht are already having an impact. Passenger movement from European origins have fallen by as much as 9%. Of course this is mainly tourism being affected - for now.

[Yinn]

3 hours ago, DannyCarlton said:

They have their passports taken from them when they arrive. Same as many Thai workers in the Middle East and Chinese workers in England.

Maybe some.

But not usual. (Phangnga, Ranong, Phuket)

I not know about Pattaya. Or other place.

 

 

 

3 hours ago, DannyCarlton said:

So you run the plantation and employ illegal Burmese workers?

Have Thai and Burmese. NOT illegal. Register at immigration. Before not register, but the immigration police check a lot now. If catch you is 100,000 baht per person. (Can negotiate to 30-40,000). 

 

Some people do it for small job. eg today I visit my friend, they make a wall, have husband and wife team, lazy to register. Only 3 day will finish, (Rohingha)

 

I think you imagine they slave. You wrong, go to any market west coast Thailand at 6pm, you see them. (Easy for thai to know if from Burma, the woman have powder face, speak thai with accent, look different thai)

 

They work fuel pump, restaurant, palm plantation, construction, rubber tree, transport company, house maid etc etc. They everywhere.

They happy to have job in Thailand. Always ask if have more job for family/friend.

 

As of August 2019, there were 2,877,144 registered migrant workers in Thailand (Ministry of Labour, 2019). Women and men migrant workers make a substantial contribution to Thailand’s economic performance. According to a study by the ILO and OECD, migrants were responsible for 4.3 - 6.6 per cent of Thailand’s GDP in 2010, while representing 4.7 per cent of the employed population (ILO/OECD, 2017). These migrants are predominately employed in low-skilled jobs, including fishing, agriculture, construction, manufacturing, domestic work, and other services

[Yinn]

50 minutes ago, Gene1960 said:

Yinn. 

My Thai friend says that the slaver fishing boats belong to the Chinese. I thought that the fishing fleet in the west coast is controlled by Thais. What is correct? 

Have Thais and Chinese. 

 

Most is Thai-Chinese owner. (I think).

Thai-Chinese people a lot in Phuket/Phangnga/Ranong. Do a lot of successful business. 

3-4 generation ago. Is complicated.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_Chinese

[saengd]

17 minutes ago, rickudon said:

Hmm. the original claim of course, does rest on some dubious statistics. For instance, 150,000 expats? The British Embassy thinks there are 73,000 UK expats alone. I'm sure that those immigration figures only refer to those on Annual extensions, not those on visas (which quite a lot of expats use as they do not stay for the whole year, or they get new visas).

I have previously done 'the calculation' of expat GDP for Udon Thani province, using an often suggested figure of 5,000 expats. The result is about 3% of GDP. Not great, but not insignificant. It also means one farang is worth 6 Thais, GDP wise.

 

Also, there is a knock on effect, Some parts of the economy will be affected more than others, because expats tend to spend more on them - most do a few domestic flights per year, some businesses have more expat customers than others. So that 3% might just be the initial effect, could start a cascade. Also some expats are in critical jobs where a high level of expertise is needed - those companies may suffer if the expertise is not available locally.

 

Of course, unlikely we will all leave at one time, so probably impacts would not be so obvious - except of course on the families of the expats living here.

 

Policies and high baht are already having an impact. Passenger movement from European origins have fallen by as much as 9%. Of course this is mainly tourism being affected - for now.

Thai GDP is worth US500 bill., 3% is US15 bill., or THB450 bill....you think expats in Udon Thani province alone are valued at that much...really! I mean really really!

[Thaidream]

We can go back and forth forever on this and never reach a conclusion because no one has the actual numbers and there is no definitive proof regarding the Thai economy.

 

We are left with the eye test.  Foreigners/Expats do contribute to the Thai economy- in amounts  not known. I only know how much I conribute and how many lives I have effected.   It is several- since I have supported  6 step children over almost 50 years and spent many millions in Thailand.  It should be noted that the actual fathers  of these children never contributed anything and there is no mechanism to force support.

 

I/m not looking for a thankyou-only a recognition that foreigners do contribute to Thai society.

 

Would Thailand collapse without me and other foreigners. No.  But some Thai people would  not be netter off without the foreign community. It is a fact of life whether you produced statistics or not.

 

Another fact is that life in Thailand has degraded considerably since my arival 50 years ago for a variety of reasons and mostly due to  a lack of any central control; a complete  wealth gap and any ability to advance on the  wealth scale without connections and the  selfishness of the elite directed towards the majprity. It doesn't affect me p;ersonally, but certainly affects my familiy.  They fell hopeless-unable to really  change their destiny and aspirations for a more productive country.

 

Sometimes, the truth of a situation is hard to accept. Thailand  really has  people who work hard; try to get ahead and are stymied at every step.

 

By the way- I never worked in a  palm plantation but when I was very young I worked in the Us picking fruit- 12 hours a day- along with migrant labor- for pennies  per hour. The hardest job i ever had and I was young and fit.   Go ahead try it for a day and see if you can make it. The people who do it have no choice as  it is their  way to stay alive.

 

It is my hope that eventually Thailand will realize that foreigners are not bad people; actually love their adopted country and are willing to contribute ideas and labor to make the country move forward/ Somebody needs to star listening and accept the facts that foreign ideas just  might work.

 

However, the bottom line is that the Thai people have to decide what direction they want for their country. If they continue to refuse to listen to others that may  want to help- they deserve the country that  will result. I hope they make the right choice.

 

 

[BobinBKK]

If we all pullout it's going to send a very loud and negative message to their already stumbling tourism industry. And honestly I could care less if it falls like a house of cards, and in that event they will blame us for leaving. You can't reason with the mentally ill and you can't fix stupid. So as I said before, take as much as you can that benefits you the most and leave for greener pastures when it's all gone. Never get attached to anyone or anything that your not willing walk away from in 30 seconds or less. Your life will be much easier that way. Obviously we all left things behind at home without regret, so it should be easier the second time around.

[rickudon]

4 minutes ago, saengd said:

Thai GDP is worth US500 bill., 3% is US15 bill., or THB450 bill....you think expats in Udon Thani province alone are valued at that much...really! I mean really really!

Wrong facts ..... I am talking about UDON THANI GDP, not the whole of Thailand. Udon Thani GDP is about 100 billion baht - 3% is 3 biilion, divide by 5000 = 600,000 baht per expat. Not unreasonable.

[Yinn]

4 hours ago, ianezy0 said:

5 hours ago, Yinn said:

I will definitely do a few 12 hour shifts if you can guarantee I will have a body like this guy at the end of my work ????

 

 

Hahaha. Is normal body for palm worker. 

brianthainess say he never see thai work hard. He wrong.

 

The body from work, not go fitness gym. 

My uncle 54, no fat, all work muscle. His body look very young, but face very old. If I see tomorrow I will photo him.

 

Happy Chinese New Year Everyone!!!

[saengd]

21 minutes ago, rickudon said:

Wrong facts ..... I am talking about UDON THANI GDP, not the whole of Thailand. Udon Thani GDP is about 100 billion baht - 3% is 3 biilion, divide by 5000 = 600,000 baht per expat. Not unreasonable.

Ah.....OK! That makes much more sense.

 

EDIT TO ADD: that's actually supportive of the claim in the OP, if you extrapolate across all of Thailand, 3% of GDP. And 600k per expat is the midpoint between the single and married persons visa requirement, 400K and 800K.

Edited January 24, 2020 by saengd

[Yinn]

11 minutes ago, BobinBKK said:

If we all pullout

 

Will not happen.

 

 

11 minutes ago, BobinBKK said:

it's going to send a very loud and negative message

Who listen? 

 

11 minutes ago, BobinBKK said:

 

to their already stumbling tourism industry.

39 million

 

 

11 minutes ago, BobinBKK said:

 

And honestly I could care less if it falls like a house of cards,

Nobody care if you leave 

 

11 minutes ago, BobinBKK said:

 

and in that event they will blame us for leaving.

Well, your decision. Up to you.

 

11 minutes ago, BobinBKK said:

 

You can't reason with the mentally ill and you can't fix stupid.

Correct. But I try now.

 

11 minutes ago, BobinBKK said:

 

So as I said before, take as much as you can that benefits you the most and leave for greener pastures when it's all gone. Never get attached to anyone or anything that your not willing walk away from in 30 seconds or less. Your life will be much easier that way. Obviously we all left things behind at home without regret, so it should be easier the second time around.

Ok, good luck.

 

https://www.cheapoair.com/flights/booknow/cheap-flight-tickets

[sucit]

13 hours ago, saengd said:

You vastly overrate the significance of Western tourist spending to the Thai economy, whilst you were sleeping Asia became wealthy and guess what, those Asians are now spending more than ever before. And those poor Thai people, the ones that have no money, over 12 million of them will take overseas holidays this year, up from 4 million just ten years ago, rich resorts and taxi's will do just fine if we all leave.

The resorts that are filled with foreigners would not be fine. 

 

I don't even understand why you quoted me. I feel Thailand would be better off without foreigners. 

[bwpage3]

On 1/23/2020 at 2:04 AM, BobbyL said:

Income tax would take a big hit from the number of expats earning decent salaries. 

 

As an example, the international school where I work in central Bangkok has around 100 expat teachers. I would guess that the average monthly tax paid by each teacher is approx 15,000THB. That is 1.5M a month income tax generated by just one international school in Bangkok. 

No it wouldn't and as a teacher you should know this. Thailand has 70,000 people.

[brokenbone]

3 hours ago, Muzarella said:

I agree. Very few Western expats long time residents do investments in Thailand affecting Thai economy numbers or the job market....just the tourists, that in 2 weeks spends what most expats residents spend in 3 months. 

more like, a tourist spend per year in thailand what an expat spend per month,

so an expat spend 12 times as much in thailand compared to a tourist per annum, in fact a tourist is highly unlikely to spend 50k in their 2 weeks here per year, on an average

Edited January 24, 2020 by brokenbone

[sucit]

8 hours ago, natway09 said:

The truth hurts ?

Some of the local expat bars would close, the working girls would work on the tourists more to get "money for Mum" the supermarkets would stock a bit less "farang food"

& Thailand would still end the year with a good current account surplus.

I would be miserable back home in the cold

I am surprised hoe many good posts there are in here. I really thought this was going to turn into a bandwagon "Thailand would crash and burn without us".

 

Good for you folks. Many of you know what you are talking about.

 

Now the question becomes, why do so many expats feel the red carpet should be laid out for them?

[notmyself]

On 1/23/2020 at 4:37 AM, DannyCarlton said:

Even given the dubious facts you have quoted, they don't support the conclusion you have drawn.

 

Indeed. How many retirees have extended family coming over to see 'grandpa' every year. 

 

 

[Susco]

The total expat community in Thailand is about 0.5% of the annual tourist arrivals.

 

The average retiree spends in a month les than half of what any tourist will spend in 1 week. Going from the posts of the skint people on this forum even less.

 

Sure they gonna miss you all.............like a toothache.

[Inn Between]

24 minutes ago, Susco said:

The total expat community in Thailand is about 0.5% of the annual tourist arrivals.

 

The average retiree spends in a month les than half of what any tourist will spend in 1 week. Going from the posts of the skint people on this forum even less.

So, you've found some verifiable statistics about this? I couldn't! It's great that you have! It's something I've been very curious about and would like to read all of the source material from where that information has come. Can you please provide a link to the source, assuming it's not just more of the fabricated "facts" we see SO often here at TVF.  

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by Inn Between

[Susco]

6 minutes ago, Inn Between said:

So, you've found some verifiable statistics about this? I couldn't! It's great that you have! It's something I've been very curious about and would like to read all of the source material from where that information has come. Can you please provide a link to the source, assuming it's not just more of the fabricated "facts" we see SO often here at TVF.  

 

If you could be bothered you could try the links in the OP to get a figure of total expats, and it probably has declined since as I see every day posts here from people who can no longer afford to stay in Thailand, and there are plenty of sources available about the tourist arrivals each year. Google is your friend.

 

Of course you gonna claim that all those statistics are fake, but never mind .

 

If you then can manage how to use a calculator you will definitely find out that 200.000 is 0.5% of 40 million.

 

Then start reading posts on this forum about members that can no longer afford to have 400 / 800K in the bank for their visa extensions, and you gonna have an idea about how much they spend.

 

It is no rocket science to know that a tourist easily spend 3 - 5000 Baht a day including hotel and other travel costs, otherwise they are called bag packers.

 

But of course you also gonna deny that.

 

Then if you know that the average retirement pension in the UK, or most other European countries, is about 40K Baht per month, then you can calculate by yourself how much they can spend.

[Traubert]

5 hours ago, Thaidream said:

It is my hope that eventually Thailand will realize that foreigners are not bad people; actually love their adopted country and are willing to contribute ideas and labor to make the country move forward/ Somebody needs to star listening and accept the facts that foreign ideas just  might work.

 

However, the bottom line is that the Thai people have to decide what direction they want for their country. If they continue to refuse to listen to others that may  want to help- they deserve the country that  will result. I hope they make the right choice.

 

 

What's to say the resulting country isn't exactly what they want? Expats came here because they liked it. Then they want all the nice things about 'home' and still at a quarter of the price.

 

Personally I find the most cringeworthy thing that expats say is 'what they should do....'

 

Why do you think Thailand isn't moving forward? And at exactly the pace that it wants to?

 

The 'we know better' arrogance is staggering. Nobody asked you to adopt the country and you weren't signed up. Know your place.

[Thaidream]

3 hours ago, Traubert said:

What's to say the resulting country isn't exactly what they want? Expats came here because they liked it. Then they want all the nice things about 'home' and still at a quarter of the price.

 

Personally I find the most cringeworthy thing that expats say is 'what they should do....'

 

Why do you think Thailand isn't moving forward? And at exactly the pace that it wants to?

 

The 'we know better' arrogance is staggering. Nobody asked you to adopt the country and you weren't signed up. Know your place.

I know my [lace quite well having arrived in 1971 and  watched a variety of decisions made by bureauacrats that have caused Thailand to regress .

 

How do I know that the Thai people don't like what theyhave?- I ask them in their own language and they tell me quite explicitly that the same things expats complain about- they also complain about.

 

There is no arrogance on my part-I never tell locals how to run their lives and if they ask me- I will give them my impressions of what could be.

 

The real arrogance is a country- any country- that reffuses to seize opportunities to make a better life for its people.  Refusal to listen to others who may have a new idea or plan and waving a hand dismissing  innovation  is the ultimate arrogance.

 

In any free society- both citizens and  immigrants have a right to express opinions. And in any free society- immigrants should be treated fairly and equally.

 

 

[saengd]

5 hours ago, Susco said:

If you could be bothered you could try the links in the OP to get a figure of total expats, and it probably has declined since as I see every day posts here from people who can no longer afford to stay in Thailand, and there are plenty of sources available about the tourist arrivals each year. Google is your friend.

 

Of course you gonna claim that all those statistics are fake, but never mind .

 

If you then can manage how to use a calculator you will definitely find out that 200.000 is 0.5% of 40 million.

 

Then start reading posts on this forum about members that can no longer afford to have 400 / 800K in the bank for their visa extensions, and you gonna have an idea about how much they spend.

 

It is no rocket science to know that a tourist easily spend 3 - 5000 Baht a day including hotel and other travel costs, otherwise they are called bag packers.

 

But of course you also gonna deny that.

 

Then if you know that the average retirement pension in the UK, or most other European countries, is about 40K Baht per month, then you can calculate by yourself how much they can spend.

Look at the problem in a different way, using approximate 2017 figures:

 

Average tourist spend is THB 6,390 per day

Length of average stay is 9.5 days

Ergo, one tourist is worth THB 60,705 per year

 

One average retiree is required to keep between THB 400,000 and 800,000 baht in the bank and usually spends this, so:

Average retiree spends THB 400,000 and 800,000 per year

 

Next....!

 

 

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism-income-Thailand.asp

[saengd]

11 hours ago, Muzarella said:

I agree. Very few Western expats long time residents do investments in Thailand affecting Thai economy numbers or the job market....just the tourists, that in 2 weeks spends what most expats residents spend in 3 months. 

Read post 241

[DannyCarlton]

12 hours ago, Yinn said:

Have Thais and Chinese. 

 

Most is Thai-Chinese owner. (I think).

Thai-Chinese people a lot in Phuket/Phangnga/Ranong. Do a lot of successful business. 

3-4 generation ago. Is complicated.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_Chinese

They also run the country. Taksin, Prayut and just about everyone in government.

[DannyCarlton]

12 hours ago, Thaidream said:

However, the bottom line is that the Thai people have to decide what direction they want for their country. If they continue to refuse to listen to others that may  want to help- they deserve the country that  will result. I hope they make the right choice.

As if. The Thai people have no say in the matter. The ruling elite (Thai Chin) will decide on the direction and the Thai people will do as they're told. Anyone would think that you think Thailand is a democracy. 555

[Thaidream]

21 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

As if. The Thai people have no say in the matter. The ruling elite (Thai Chin) will decide on the direction and the Thai people will do as they're told. Anyone would think that you think Thailand is a democracy. 555

No, I don't believe there is a  true Democracy here.   The military has ruled for decades either overtly or behind the scenes.  However, there is a limit to what the Thai people will continue to accept.  It has been reached before- in 1973; 1976 and 1992 but real change will take alot more than that.

 

 

[Susco]

2 hours ago, saengd said:

Look at the problem in a different way, using approximate 2017 figures:

 

Average tourist spend is THB 6,390 per day

Length of average stay is 9.5 days

Ergo, one tourist is worth THB 60,705 per year

 

One average retiree is required to keep between THB 400,000 and 800,000 baht in the bank and usually spends this, so:

Average retiree spends THB 400,000 and 800,000 per year

 

Next....!

 

 

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism-income-Thailand.asp

 

So by your own statistics a tourist is worth 40 Million times 60.705 Baht per year.

 

Expats are worth 200.000 times the money you consider they have in the bank, though I read all the time on this forum that many can NOT afford those amount and either have to leave or use an agent.

 

And even from those having that money in the bank, many do NOT spend that during the year. Most living upcountry would even have a hard time to be able to spend 800K a year, even if they wanted to.

 

Next.........

Edited January 25, 2020 by Susco