Corona Virus in Chiang Mai

[samuttodd]

23 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Of course.  All the facts and data I have relayed are in the public domain other than my personal take on things and things I have been told anecdotally by others (i.e.: Chinese doctors and nurses in Shenzhen).  The more people that consider all of this with an open mind, the better for everyone IMO.

Roger that,   I just wanted to be certain... I figured as much. 

 

23 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

 

 

[WaveHunter]

3 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

Well perhaps you should read the thread. A poster who went on here to claim there is a 3% mortality rate then proceeded to declare that mortality rate can't be calculated and doesn't matter at all. Even more curiously he then proceeded to accuse John Read of Lancaster university of just using Chinese figures. However the whole point of Read's calculation was to go beyond the Chinese figures and calculate the number of actual infected and thus likely mortality rate can be calculated. He did this very convincingly.

 

While the number of cases can not be logged by the Chinese for obvious reasons, not all are caught, want to come forward or even know they have the virus, the registering of deaths is a much more accurate exercise. For obvious reasons the number of deaths is much closer to an accurate figure than the number of infected.

 

Since the COV virus is easily identified and the Chinese have the labs to do so, there is no doubt at all that the number of deaths is closer to accuracy than the number of infected people. 

 

And Read did not do a spreadsheet. He used sophisticated models and equations.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v2.full.pdf

 

You really love twisting facts and making a mockery out of what I say, and thereby spreading misinformation.  You really should reconsider because it's rather childish and petty, and certainly of no benefit to anyone.

 

For record, and now repeating for the THIRD TIME, I did NOT say the mortality rate was 3%, I said that by dividing the number of confirmed deaths by the number of confirmed reports, it would APPEAR that it was 3% BUT  THAT WAS AN INVALID STATISTIC due to lag time caused by incubation, and thus not taking into account those confirmed cases that would later die or recover.  I said that an actual CFR (Confirmed Fatality Rate) could NOT be expressed until AFTER the outbreak had ended.   Do you finally get it, or are we gonna keep playing this childish game of yours?

 

The fact is that AT THIS STAGE OF THE OUTBREAK, Mortality rate can not be quantified accurately and therefore is of little use in forecasting the course of the outbreak, and forecasting where this will go is what is really important right now, not quibbling about irrelevant and unquantifiable statistics!  

 

With somewhere around 75,000 people suspected to be infected in Wuhan...yes that is right, 75,000 according to the Lancet white paper of January 31, that means that, as many of those infected people become "confirmed" cases, and many of those confirmed cases will then go on to become Serious Complication Cases requiring ICU care, the most important thing right now is to determine WHEN cases requiring ICU care will outpace available ICU beds!  Once that happens, the mortality rate (whatever the damn figure really turns out to be) will skyrocket.  GET IT?  It's a really basic concept to grasp!

 

Do you think anybody gives a damn right now about quibbling over present mortality rate when it can not even be quantified?  Get off this crusade against me with all of your petty nit-picking and contribute something meaningful to this thread!  With all due respect, right now you're making a fool of yourself!

Edited February 4, 2020 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

3 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

...Since the COV virus is easily identified and the Chinese have the labs to do so, there is no doubt at all that the number of deaths is closer to accuracy than the number of infected people. ...

 

WRONG!  You fail to take into account that in China, it is standard practice in many cases to list cause of death on death certificates with what the pre-existing condition was on admittance.  This is a FACT!  I know this is true because medical professionals I know in Shenzhen have told me this, and they confirm it is happening right now with some of the cases they know of.

 

It should be obvious that this is true when you consider that the "confirmed" deaths every year in China from Influenza are some ridiculously low number, like only a couple hundred or something like that...according to official death certificates.  Do you believe that is really true?

 

On this basis alone, the number of actual deaths from nCoV in China are probably FAR greater than being reported.  FAR GREATER!

Edited February 4, 2020 by WaveHunter

[lexilis]

Excellent posts WaveHunter. Very informative compared to most other posters. I looked at the Lancet report. This is the work of real experts in epidemiology and I agree it may have been a factor in the UN declaring a world health emergency 2 days after. One of the things that stuck out: They tabulated "cities outside mainland China to which Wuhan had the greatest volume of outbound  air travelers", based on 2019 data. Bangkok was number one (with 16202 passengers per month) more than twice as much as the next highest which was Hong Kong (7531/month). This does not bode well.

[cerox]

WaveHunter,

 

as much as I appreciate your information, what are you going to do?

You said decisive action is required. You write here all day which is nice for people who want to know but what difference does it make?

 

I do not mean that insulting or mean in any way. But you tell us all to take it serious, and then? Locking myself up in my room 24/7? I rather die early.

 

All you wrote about the ICU care and not enough beds etc. - yes you are right. What are you going to do? What can we do? Nothing. So that is why I am asking. I am not ignoring the coronavirus, I know it is a serious threat but I also know that for me personally in my position there is nothing I could do.

[WaveHunter]

35 minutes ago, cerox said:

WaveHunter,

 

as much as I appreciate your information, what are you going to do?

You said decisive action is required. You write here all day which is nice for people who want to know but what difference does it make?

 

I do not mean that insulting or mean in any way. But you tell us all to take it serious, and then? Locking myself up in my room 24/7? I rather die early.

 

All you wrote about the ICU care and not enough beds etc. - yes you are right. What are you going to do? What can we do? Nothing. So that is why I am asking. I am not ignoring the coronavirus, I know it is a serious threat but I also know that for me personally in my position there is nothing I could do.

I am passionate and perhaps I talk too much in my post but it is because we ALL have a voice and sometimes can affect the outcome of even the largest issues such as this crisis, even if only in a small way.  Self awareness of the truth can lead others to the truth, and sometimes it can reach those in a position to do something about it..."the grass roots" thing.   

 

Irregardless, at the very least, we all still have a moral responsibility to make the truth self-evident, and not just put on a happy face ignoring what is real and pretending that all is just fine and dandy. It's one of the major differences between a free society where individuals determine their destiny and societies where one is denied that opportunity.  It should be practiced at every opportunity, just on principle if nothing else.

 

This problem is not China's  problem; it's our problem too.  We are ALL a part of a global community.  Even if you, as an individual can't do anything to change it significantly, it should still be your personal responsibility to know the truth and express your views.  I just worry that most people these days are so wrapped up in their own lives, they fail to feel any sort of compassion or responsibility to the world around them anymore.

 

Look...bottom line, I am not an alarmist and I do not expect to be personally affected by this virus.  By April, the virus will probably peak (if for no other reason than "herd immunity' effect), and as many have said in this thread, this viral outbreak like all before it will soon be forgotten.  But during the next few months a LOT of people are going to die, and for many there's going to be a lot of grief and loss to families and loved ones.  ANyone who has any compassion at all for strangers should feel a responsibility at the very least to just know the truth.

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by WaveHunter

[samuttodd]

9 minutes ago, cerox said:

WaveHunter,

 

as much as I appreciate your information, what are you going to do?

You said decisive action is required. You write here all day which is nice for people who want to know but what difference does it make?

 

I do not mean that insulting or mean in any way. But you tell us all to take it serious, and then? Locking myself up in my room 24/7? I rather die early.

 

All you wrote about the ICU care and not enough beds etc. - yes you are right. What are you going to do? What can we do? Nothing. So that is why I am asking. I am not ignoring the coronavirus, I know it is a serious threat but I also know that for me personally in my position there is nothing I could do.

 

Here are some things anyone can do for little money.

 

Wash up frequently.   Soap and water.   If you havent any,  then at least use a hand santitizer until you can do a good scrubbing with soap and water.

 

Limit your exposure risk by spending limited amounts of time in public areas where many congregate.  If you hear someone who sounds sick,  distance yourself from them.

 

get planty of good rest and eat helthy nutritious foods.

 

In sunny climates where handwashing of garments is common,  hang your garments in bright sunlight to dry... UV  is not something that helps bacteria or viral pathogens flourish,  in fact it kills them... the longer they are in bright sun,  the better.

 

Do not wear your shoes inside where you live.   Keep them outside,  and if possible,  flip em over and expose their soles to UV light periodically.

 

Do not touch tour face until you can do a good washup with soap and water.

 

If you can,  prepare your own food.

 

 

Try to keep your body fit. 

 

Maintain a positive mental attitude.

 

When you return from being in public,  or in case you believe you were exposed to a sick person,   Gargle with an antiseptic mouthwash.   Blow your nose well with a disposable tissue,   blow all you can out of your nose.. all the moisture you can muster.

 

Something i do after the nose blowing is several times a day,  I'll snort 4 or 5 drops of a colloidal silver solution into each nostril,  and then pinch my nose closed so it will coat the nasal tissue well... Virus and Bacteria are killed by it on contact.    I do not swallow the colloidal silver solution,  because it may compromise my digestive system beneficial bacteria (and that is one of our main defenses against taking them in.

 

 

These things do not take much money and only a little time.   They may make a world of difference to your overall health in limiting exposure risks,  and just being a healthier person.

[Liverpudlian]

On 1/24/2020 at 8:53 AM, opalred said:

there are virus everywhere /do we put our head in a plastic bag

Sticking your head in a plastic bag could prove fatal . ????

[cerox]

I used to have this colloidal silver device a long time ago. Almost forgot about it, but I do not have one anymore.

 

Maybe one thing I could add to your list is that I do nasal wash - now daily, since the pollution started in December. But since it is salt water, it should also keep you generally healthy. Takes 1min in the morning if you have done it for some time and are used to it.

[WaveHunter]

15 minutes ago, cerox said:

I used to have this colloidal silver device a long time ago. Almost forgot about it, but I do not have one anymore.

 

Maybe one thing I could add to your list is that I do nasal wash - now daily, since the pollution started in December. But since it is salt water, it should also keep you generally healthy. Takes 1min in the morning if you have done it for some time and are used to it.

I thought it was just my imagination at first but the pollution in Chiang Mai has indeed been really terrible lately.  Why? Did they start burning the fields already?

[WaveHunter]

Regarding the Lancet paper's forecast for the current nCoV outbreak in China, it is estimated that if there was no reduction in transmissibility, the Wuhan epidemic would peak around April, 2020, and local epidemics across cities in mainland China would lag by 1–2 weeks. If transmissibility was reduced by 25% in all cities domestically, then both the growth rate and magnitude of local epidemics would be substantially reduced; the epidemic peak would be delayed by about 1 month and its magnitude reduced by about 50%. A 50% reduction in transmissibility would push the viral reproductive number to about 1·3, in which case the epidemic would grow slowly without peaking during the first half of 2020. 

 

Given that  multiple major Chinese cities had already been seeded with more than dozens of infections, and the fact that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen together accounted for more than 50% of all outbound international air travel in mainland China, other countries would likely be at risk of experiencing 2019-nCoV epidemics during the first half of 2020.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext#fig4

Edited February 4, 2020 by WaveHunter

[cerox]

1 hour ago, WaveHunter said:

I thought it was just my imagination at first but the pollution in Chiang Mai has indeed been really terrible lately.  Why? Did they start burning the fields already?

I wish I knew that too.

 

But something definitely changed 2019. The burning season was so much stronger. Then in October, November they was occasional burning when I watched the AQI remotely.

 

December/January every other day alternating. Was never like this before. I came back in December for a 60 day visit and leave in two days. Believe me, if I had known it would be like this, I would never have come. Really sad, but I accepted reality.

 

I assume it is partially due to more mushrooms they want to gather, because you see all those forests burning. I heard the Chinese want them so much - I did not verify it and cannot tell if it is true. But would make sense. I gave up to understand the details and accepted it is something I cannot change and Northern Thailand is not a good place to live anymore due to the pollution.

 

Want to come back in May, but now with Corona I wait before I book a ticket. Now that we saw all those flight bans (flights to China).

I heard the Thai government will release the figures of Corona on Feb 9th - not sure if that's true. So much false information nowadays. You never know.

[BritManToo]

2 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

I thought it was just my imagination at first but the pollution in Chiang Mai has indeed been really terrible lately.  Why? Did they start burning the fields already?

Burning ban Feb to March means the farmers all started burning in December.

The hill tribes burning in the mountains aren't affected, as they won't be easy to catch.

[cerox]

It sounds really logical what you say BritMan, but I have to try really hard not to laugh when I hear "burning ban" in a city which is polluted AQI 150+ for 6 months for the year ????

If that is true, the burning ban has the opposite effect than intended. Before people could live here peacefully and leave for 3 months. Now it is inhabitable for 6 instead of 3 months.

[EricTh]

If you want to be 100% safe, you could go back to North America or Europe or Australia.

 

South East Asia is too near China, it's the physical distance that counts and NOT the political boundary.

 

I just read the news that a South Korean got infected by the virus while she was in Thailand.

 

So those paranoid countries might impose a ban not only on China but also on Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, Vietnam soon.

 

Here's the latest statistics

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Edited February 4, 2020 by EricTh

[samuttodd]

I know that I have been hammering you guys with info,  there is so much going on that I wanted to share it... and if you have a chance to review,  that'd be great.

 

This is an absolutely great interview by a fellow that usually does weather,  but this is a departure from that to talk about the virus and the current "happenings".

 

The volume is problematic and AI  is activly dropping the guys when they get on sensitive materials that the algorithm is blocking in real time.    Still a grreat interview.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jt-jPOdpJU

[EricTh]

2 minutes ago, samuttodd said:

I know that I have been hammering you guys with info,  there is so much going on that I wanted to share it... and if you have a chance to review,  that'd be great.

 

 

I am surprised that no country has come up with a real cure yet. They can just provide the cure to China and the spread would stop.

Edited February 4, 2020 by EricTh

[Tayaout]

14 minutes ago, EricTh said:

I am surprised that no country has come up with a real cure yet. They can just provide the cure to China and the spread would stop.

They never found the cure for SARS. So it's not always a simple fix. 

Edited February 4, 2020 by Tayaout

[Scott]

A post advocating a questionable cure and violating Fair Use policy has been reported and removed.

 

[Mapguy]

Would appreciate posters remarking on the Corona virus IN CHIANG MAI as this thread was intended. There are any number of other places to discuss the  topic of the virus more generally. There is barely anything here specific to Chiang Mai.

Edited February 5, 2020 by Mapguy
Clarity

[orang37]

29 minutes ago, Mapguy said:

Would appreciate posters remarking on the Corona virus IN CHIANG MAI as this thread was intended. There are any number of other places to discuss the  topic of the virus more generally. There is barely anything here specific to Chiang Mai.

 

Khun Mapguy,  great to see you surface, here, again ! 

 

We, for two, are enjoying the banter, here: the Orang we are is emitting frequent whoops that translate roughly as: "bad banana;" the human we are is studying the various posts as a fractal entanglement of mental particles, some extra-terrestrial. Wavehunter is playing Hans Solo :)

 

Seriously, why wouldn't we be talking about the virus and the epidemic, in general, given a shortage of "local facts" ?

 

imho, you could play Yoda.

 

cheers, ~o:37;

[Dante99]

1 hour ago, Mapguy said:

There is barely anything here specific to Chiang Mai.

There is barely anything specific in Chiang Mai and extremely rarely found here.

[XGM]

1 hour ago, Mapguy said:

Would appreciate posters remarking on the Corona virus IN CHIANG MAI as this thread was intended.

Summary of CM related events as of now:

 

One confirmed case, the patient is hospitalized in Maharaj Nakorn Chiang Mai Hospital (Suansok). Chinese national from Jingzhou. Travelled via Wuhan to Kunming on Jan 14 and flew to C.M. on Jan 15. Showed symptoms on Jan 18th, went to hospital 2 days later, confirmed as a coronavirus case by Jan 31.

 

That's it AFAIK.

[orang37]

14 minutes ago, Dante99 said:

There is barely anything specific in Chiang Mai and extremely rarely found here.

 

The fact that even gravity is not specific, here, is a major reason I enjoy living here.

 

Plus: the bareness-of-the rarely-found ... well, its extreme is so hot.

 

Personal specifics: I am cancelling a scheduled heart checkup at Maharaj; I am postponing taking a friend to the big Tulou Chinese restaurant for dim sum. I plan to use a handi-wipe after each good-night kiss with my regular tuk-tuk driver.

 

cheers, ~o:37;

[WaveHunter]

2 hours ago, Mapguy said:

Would appreciate posters remarking on the Corona virus IN CHIANG MAI as this thread was intended. There are any number of other places to discuss the  topic of the virus more generally. There is barely anything here specific to Chiang Mai.

No news specific to Chiang Mai is good news, wouldn't you agree?

 

Edited February 5, 2020 by WaveHunter

[Mapguy]

The thread can be useful for snuffing false or speculative alarms in Chiang Mai.  For example, City News reported the Public Health authorities' notice  that the death of a Chinese tourist visiting a Mae Rim resort in late January was not due to the corona virus with which she was not infected.

Edited February 5, 2020 by Mapguy

[Rimmer]

An off topic troll post has been removed, topic is about:

 

Corona Virus in Chiang Mai

 

Please stay on topic and do not attempt to hijack it with off topic stuff about brains.

 

 

 

[WaveHunter]

2 minutes ago, Mapguy said:

The thread can be useful for snuffing false or speculative alarms in Chiang Mai.  For example, City News reported the Pubic Health authorities' notice  that the death of a Chinese tourist visiting a Mae Rim resort in late January was not due to the corona virus with which she was not infected.

I agree totally.  I think the reason so much about nCoV in general is being posted to this thread is that is actually, by far, the most active thread on ThaiVisa forum at present concerning the outbreak. 

[WaveHunter]

REGARDING DEATH RATE for nCoV:  A lot of misinformation is going around about "death rate" figures.  Again for those who keep harping on a specific death rate figure for nCoV, there is no valid number right now since it requires comparing actual deaths against the number of confirmed cases, and that is not possible to do in an ongoing outbreak involving incubation lag time.

 

However, it is possible to correlate Serious Complication cases (i.e.: those with pneumonia and/or ARDS) with deaths.  The most valid study to date is this one (published on Lancet):

 

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study

 

Again, the death rate discussed here is NOT the mortality rate of those infected; it is the fatality rate of those who have gone to to develop serious complications requiring ICU care (i.e.: pneumonia and ARDS), which in the case of nCoV appears to be about 20% of those confirmed to be infected.

 

SInce this new 99 case study is more granular than the previous 41 case study which showed a 15% mortality rate, the 11% mortality found in the 99 case study is probably more indicative of predictive mortality rate based on the scoring system that was assigned.

 

The clinical features that predict mortality are discussed and this scoring system has been assigned (MuLBSTA Score).  Each clinical feature is given a score and the combined total score gave a prediction of mortality rate. 

 

The clinical features and assigned scores were:

• Both lungs involved - 5 points
• Lymphocytes < 0.8 - 4 points
• Bacterial co-infection - 4 points
• Acute Smoker (active smoker) - 3 points
• Quit Smoker (former smoker) - 2 points
• Hypertension - 2 points
• Age > 60 - 2 points

Total Score and Mortality Rate:

• A score of 0 indicates chance of mortality at 0.47%
• A score of 6 was 2.9%
• A score of 12 was 15%
• A score  22 points was greater than 69% mortality rate

Edited February 5, 2020 by WaveHunter

[orang37]

59 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

No news specific to Chiang Mai is good news, wouldn't you agree?

 

 

I can see now that you have fully embraced "Thai Ways" ????

 

cheers, ~0:37;