Fallen value of Thai Bht

[Huckenfell]

My brother in UK is coming here for a holiday in April, contacted me today asking  "Why has the exchange rate for the Bht fallen so badly since he last came 5 years ago.   What can i tell him ?

[White Christmas13]

Tell him to ask little P

[Old Croc]

11 minutes ago, Huckenfell said:

Why has the exchange rate for the Bht fallen so badly since he last came 5 years ago.   What can i tell him

Presume you mean why has the pound fallen so badly? Tell him to check events in the UK.

[Salerno]

39 minutes ago, Old Croc said:

Tell him to check events in the UK.

Why?

[Old Croc]

30 minutes ago, Salerno said:

Why?

 

Why do you need to ask?

[Salerno]

Simple question, why can't you answer it?

[Old Croc]

4 minutes ago, Salerno said:

Simple question, why can't you answer it?

I can answer it I just cant fathom why you are so clueless.

Did you read my full post? Simple question.

[Salerno]

I did, but blaming it purely on Brexit is what I would call "clueless".

[nkg]

You could show him these graphs of the Pound falling from 45 to 40 over the last 3 years, and the US dollar falling from 35 to 30.

 

You could go on to explain that the Baht has strengthened against all major currencies over the last 3 years. It isn't just the Pound that has fallen.

 

[Roy Baht]

It's clear that that recently the THB has strengthened due to its becoming a haven for foreigner money due to Thailand’s current account surplus, its significant foreign reserves and negligible inflation.

 

<<<<26) The Bangkok Post and Phuketwan do not allow quotes from their news articles or other material to appear on Thaivisa.com. Neither do they allow links to their publications. Posts from members containing quotes from or links to Bangkok Post or Phuketwan publications will be deleted from the forum.>>>>

 

However, It's also clear that the idiotic manner in which Brexit has been managed (not Brexit itself) has weighed on the GBP and continues to weigh on it.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50821583

 

Both of these factors together have made the GBP especially weak against the THB.

Edited January 30, 2020 by metisdead
Link to Bangkok Post removed.

[madmen]

According to countless idiot posters the. "elite" whoever the <deleted> they are. Are controlling the banks and propping the currency because they are not finished buying Rolex watches and Prada hand bags....he is going to hear it within 5 minutes of sitting in a bar anyway 

[baansgr]

Tell him the glass is half full, not half empty. If he had come a few months ago he would have only got 36 baht rather than 40.....

[Old Croc]

7 hours ago, nkg said:

You could show him these graphs of the Pound falling from 45 to 40 over the last 3 years, and the US dollar falling from 35 to 30.

 

You could go on to explain that the Baht has strengthened against all major currencies over the last 3 years. It isn't just the Pound that has fallen.

 

Thanks, but why should I waste time explaining basics to pedants asking silly questions.

[Old Croc]

7 hours ago, Salerno said:

I did, but blaming it purely on Brexit is what I would call "clueless".

Did you change the nature of your query when you finally realized the answer lies with the pound in the UK rather than with the Baht?

I never mentioned Brexit, why make up <deleted> in endeavoring to look less stupid, it has the reverse effect.

[Huckenfell]

9 hours ago, Salerno said:

I did, but blaming it purely on Brexit is what I would call "clueless".

Are they having BREXIT in the USA, Australia and NZ  etc ?

 

[Huckenfell]

Are they having BREXIT in the USA, Australia and NZ  etc ?

 

[Henryford]

Tell him to look at the BoE's money printing, the UK's massive fiscal deficit and trade deficit. The Pound is monopoly money.

[khunPer]

13 hours ago, Huckenfell said:

"Why has the exchange rate for the Bht fallen so badly since he last came 5 years ago.   What can i tell him ?

Tell him that the baht hit the level from about some 17-18 years ago, which was/is about same as the level i the 1980ies – however, looking at the bright side of life some of the birds in the nightlife are not the same...????

[Salerno]

5 hours ago, Old Croc said:

Did you change the nature of your query when you finally realized the answer lies with the pound in the UK rather than with the Baht?

No.

5 hours ago, Old Croc said:

I never mentioned Brexit, why make up <deleted> in endeavoring to look less stupid, it has the reverse effect.

If you say so mate. Blind Freddy could see what you where implying; which is "stupid" given the Bhat is kicking <deleted> against currencies around the world.

 

But if it makes you feel better keep trying to deflect.

 

[Salerno]

5 hours ago, Old Croc said:

Thanks, but why should I waste time explaining basics to pedants asking silly questions.

Bit harsh calling the OP's brother a pedant. Or are you aiming that at me? If the latter, your lack of comprehension could explain why you where trying to blame Bexit purely for the downfall of the pound.

[Old Croc]

10 hours ago, Salerno said:

Bit harsh calling the OP's brother a pedant. Or are you aiming that at me? If the latter, your lack of comprehension could explain why you where trying to blame Bexit purely for the downfall of the pound.

I was calling you the pedant and again you're demonstrating a lack of comprehension skills.  I never mentioned Brexit, you did.  

[Salerno]

Whatever lets you sleep at night 

[Matzzon]

Even if most of the developed and industrial countries have been having an uphill road for many years now, that answer is not as simple as so many posters would like to make it in this thread.

 

To blame heavy and positive or negative currency fluctuations on just one country is just pure dumb. Some blame Thailand and Prayut, and others UK economy and Brexit. Of course Brexit and time prolonged time that has been ongoing has had a negative effect on the UK economy. Nobody can deny that fact.

 

On the other hand to try and state the stupid remark as "ask Prayut" is just even more dumb than blaming one country. I am not saying that I like this guy, but Thai economy has been growing faster than even under his time as unelected and questionable elected prime minister. It has been going good for Thailand, and most of the foreigners, tourists and expats does not like that because it affects their living standards. Basically they do all they can to blame it on Thailand in some kind of way, to make it sound like it´s Thailands fault that they are losing out on the life as a king in a foreign country.

Ok, there are some strange factors, but it´s a part of the world of functions that controls currencies, that has been making the baht rise in almost impossible conditions. Sure, I would be the first to say that the Thai baht is a blown up overrated currency. However, it is also strong due to that it´s nourished from two giant sources. That is tourism and export, which is Thailands two main pillar for their economic foundation.

 

However, export has been going down step by step just because the high appreciation of the baht. That calls for BOT to control the raise of the baht. When control measurements are needed to put in to place at the same time a disaster to economy like an outbreak emerges, that can be devastating even for a strong currency. That is very bad for Thailand that depends on the tourism sector as much as they do.

What´s going to happen? Not even expert are sure of that, and I do not have a crystal ball. I have an opinion, though. Thailand has been putting all the eggs in one basket lately. They have been concentrating far too much on Chinese and Indian tourists. Sure, they have a great value and quantity talks loud. Although, they need to be more diversified, and do like the giant investors. They put heavy trust and belief in the safe cards, but they never abolish the possibilities to always have a back-up plan for a rainy day.

The rainy day has finally showed it´s face, and Thailand must look at all directions to maintain what´s left of their tourism sector to not fall behind other emerging popular destinations. At the same time as they need the baht to fall to save the fall in numbers regarding export. Most people can see that is a very hard, to almost impossible, equation. 

 

Now this was all about what you could say to your friend. I believe you could tell him that it looks very bad today when comparing to five years back in time. Even more if you would go as far as 10 year or more back in time. That has to do with the factors explained above. The true nature of economy. Thailand has been popular in so many ways and caught up with other currencies. Now, it is a little bit bad and a small crisis is here. Noting much is going to happen. Thailand is going to come out hurt, but with enough powers to avoid disaster as well as the power to gain traction again. Your friends outlook is a little bit bright, though. He will probably go at a time when, compared with today, he will get a few more baht by waiting to change as long as possible.

[adammike]

18 hours ago, Old Croc said:

Did you change the nature of your query when you finally realized the answer lies with the pound in the UK rather than with the Baht?

I never mentioned Brexit, why make up <deleted> in endeavoring to look less stupid, it has the reverse effect.

It's a bit of both,the Baht was the world's best performing currency last year and for some of 2018,the pound fell against most currency's after the referendum.

My euro is suffering so it's a pleasant surprise to see the Baht falling.

[delgarcon]

The GBP started to weaken the day that the Brexit referendum results were known and continued to weaken until the British government were given an overall majority to finally exit the EU. Although GBP has strengthened since, there is still a worry that we wont strike the right trade deals by the end of year deadline, but it will strengthen again if market confidence improves as the year goes on, which is what I believe will happen.

The THB, on the other hand, has strengthened due to a strong economy against most, if not all currencies and is only now weakening as a result of the potential loss of tourism due to the coronavirus. In my opinion this trend will continue as the numbers of those infected, particularly in Thailand increase, which surely they will. Knowing the way this government works, I would wager that the figure of 14 that we have been given for the last 3 days is pure fiction. The TAT knows full well that the loss of 2m Chinese tourists could only be the tip of the iceberg when numbers increase.

Personally I'm holding on to my GBPs for as long as possible.

 

[Old Croc]

4 hours ago, adammike said:

It's a bit of both,the Baht was the world's best performing currency last year and for some of 2018,the pound fell against most currency's after the referendum.

My euro is suffering so it's a pleasant surprise to see the Baht falling.

Yes, I moved a good sum yesterday after also being pleasantly surprised to find the baht a little lower. 

Thanks for the bit of sanity in your first para, many of the baying hounds here refuse to believe that their beloved Pound has fallen in value at all.

My Aussie dollar has fallen about 35% against the baht in recent years mainly because of problems and mismanagement at home. I don't pretend it's all to do with the baht staying strong and not falling with other currencies. 

[Old Croc]

6 hours ago, Salerno said:

Whatever lets you sleep at night 

If you were perceptive enough to note the time of my posts you would know I sleep very little.

I'm in Thailand, not mummy's basement in Hull.

[Swimfan]

On 1/30/2020 at 7:29 AM, Roy Baht said:

It's clear that that recently the THB has strengthened due to its becoming a haven for foreigner money due to Thailand’s current account surplus, its significant foreign reserves and negligible inflation.

 

<<<<26) The Bangkok Post and Phuketwan do not allow quotes from their news articles or other material to appear on Thaivisa.com. Neither do they allow links to their publications. Posts from members containing quotes from or links to Bangkok Post or Phuketwan publications will be deleted from the forum.>>>>

 

However, It's also clear that the idiotic manner in which Brexit has been managed (not Brexit itself) has weighed on the GBP and continues to weigh on it.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50821583

 

Both of these factors together have made the GBP especially weak against the THB.

You are correct as most don't realize. its Thailand's account surplus and massive stockpile of foreign currency reserves that is keeping the Bhat strong. its view as a safe haven.

[DDBKK]

On 1/29/2020 at 11:50 PM, madmen said:

According to countless idiot posters the. "elite" whoever the <deleted> they are. Are controlling the banks and propping the currency because they are not finished buying Rolex watches and Prada hand bags....he is going to hear it within 5 minutes of sitting in a bar anyway 

Aha but there is value in that. As soon as you hear it you know the type of person you are dealing with immediately and need to make your excuses and find another spot. 

 

It's similar to asking an interview candidate what they think really happened on 9/11. The answer dictates whether you offer them the job, or not.