SURVEY: Coronavirus, is the gov’t doing enough?

[FarFlungFalang]

3 hours ago, justin case said:

the truth of a death in thailand will remain TOP SECRET to not kill $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

One may say people don't die from the virus but they die from complications caused by the virus which would be a good way to keep the numbers to an absolute minimum.How would we know?

[khunpa]

4 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

I guess you meant combat the virus? Yes, fast diagnostics are a necessity. Thais have none of it.

 

I wonder how many "Patients under investigation" (extra hospital beds) Thailand can manage? For sure it the amount does not start to go down soon, then it will not be long before hospitals are overloaded with PUI patients.

[Haecksler]

8 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

I guess you meant combat the virus? Yes, fast diagnostics are a necessity. Thais have none of it.

sure corrected already thanks for letting me know

[Deerculler]

Wow!

all of a sudden Thailand has found a cure.

Who the hell do they think they fooling.

 

[Don Mega]

They should step up the scaremogering a few notches to add a bit more fuel to the global hysteria.

[Haecksler]

I found this quite interesting

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/world/asia/china-coronavirus-philippines-thailand.html

[Jumbo1968]

Not being a Doctor but there is no cure for a virus but there are vaccinations to try and prevent it or lessen the affects like the flu vaccine ?

[Haecksler]

7 minutes ago, Don Mega said:

They should step up the scaremogering a few notches to add a bit more fuel to the global hysteria.

20% of cases severe & ICU required.

R0 = 2.5-4.0 which means highly contagious. When the hospitals are full and refuse to treat you, you might change your mind.

Did you ever had a pneumonia?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

5 hours ago, khunpa said:

With a static number at 19 infected for days and huge rise in possible cases, there is reason to be very concerned.

 

Where are the test results?

 

I believe the number of potential virus cases awaiting official lab results (and God only knows how long they're going to continue waiting) was up to about 405 people as of yesterday, according to the government's daily report.

 

That compares with only about 80 completed lab results that they've announced in total over the past two weeks, 19 confirmed virus cases and 61 cases diagnosed with other illnesses supposedly.

 

Just as a matter of mathematics, if you applied that same almost 24% positive rate (19 out of 80) to all of the 405 currently pending cases, that would mean another 95 cases waiting in the wings right now.

Edited February 3, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[khunpa]

13 minutes ago, Don Mega said:

They should step up the scaremogering a few notches to add a bit more fuel to the global hysteria.

Yeah, I am sure there is nothing to worry about.

China has put 60 mill. people under lock-down for fun and the problems in Wuhan is just a hoax. Never mind the economical downfall, it has already created. And we know that money is not important to Chinese. 

 

Russia has with only a few infected cases announced that they might deport foreigners, who are infected and USA has declared a Public Health Emergency with only with only 11 cases. 

I am sure none of these countries are making use of expert medical advisors before they make decisions like this.  

 

It's for sure pure hysteria.

[Yinn]

Thailand top 7 country in the world. 

195 countries. 

Good job.

 

[khunPer]

Interesting facts...

 

 

Source here.

[khunpa]

25 minutes ago, Haecksler said:

20% of cases severe & ICU required.

R0 = 2.5-4.0 which means highly contagious. When the hospitals are full and refuse to treat you, you might change your mind.

Did you ever had a pneumonia?

Some people don't understand that this is about the risk over overloaded hospitals and in the end lack of ressources. Just like what is happening in Wuhan right now.

 

I don't think they will understand until the day they go to the hospital and are asked to leave because they are not sick enough. Or when they are about to have their lungs drained. 

Edited February 3, 2020 by khunpa

[khunpa]

10 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Thailand top 7 country in the world. 

195 countries. 

Good job.

 

Yes and WHO also recently praised Thailand for their efforts to prevent air pollution. Good job on that too!!

[rabas]

24 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

That compares with only about 80 completed lab results that they've announced in total over the past two weeks, 19 confirmed virus cases and 61 cases diagnosed with other illnesses supposedly.

Another good number. 80 tested cases in about 14 days, about 4-5 per day.

 

The Thai daily reports give specific details of the 61 'other' illness diagnoses, like influenza A, B, C, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Rhinovirus, etc.  I wonder if they will rule out nCoV2019 in some cases if they find another valid diagnosis for pneumonia without testing for nCoV2019.  In other words, did they test all 80 people for nCoV2019?

[khunpa]

5 minutes ago, rabas said:

Another good number. 80 tested cases in about 14 days, about 4-5 per day.

 

The Thai daily reports give specific details of the 61 'other' illness diagnoses, like influenza A, B, C, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Rhinovirus, etc.  I wonder if they will rule out nCoV2019 in some cases if they find another valid diagnosis for pneumonia without testing for nCoV2019.  In other words, did they test all 80 people for nCoV2019?

 

Not to worry about testing or spreading....

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/world/asia/china-coronavirus-philippines-thailand.html

 

One of the confirmed cases in Thailand involved a Chinese man in the northern city of Chiang Mai who initially tested negative for the virus after being admitted to a hospital and was therefore transferred out of an isolation unit to a general ward, said Rungrueng Kitphati, a spokesman for the country’s health ministry.

 

“The chances of him spreading the disease is very low,” said Mr. Rungrueng, noting that the space between beds in the general ward was more than a yard. “Our medical staff always wash their hands in and out. It will not be communicable to others.”

 

 

[khunpa]

 

39 minutes ago, rabas said:

Another good number. 80 tested cases in about 14 days, about 4-5 per day.

 

The Thai daily reports give specific details of the 61 'other' illness diagnoses, like influenza A, B, C, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Rhinovirus, etc.  I wonder if they will rule out nCoV2019 in some cases if they find another valid diagnosis for pneumonia without testing for nCoV2019.  In other words, did they test all 80 people for nCoV2019?

 

Thailand has about 150.000 hospital beds. Current amount of PUI patients has grown to 485 in 19 days. (approx x2 every week)

 

If the amount of PUI patients keeps going up at current rate... (x2 every week). Then in 8 weeks there will only be 26.810 beds left and in week 9 there will be a minus of 97.350 beds. 

 

It kind of makes sense why China very early choose the lockdown method. I hope we soon see the curve breaking down. (or that my math is totally wrong)

 

 

Edited February 3, 2020 by khunpa

[DrTuner]

7 minutes ago, khunpa said:

Thailand has about 150.000 hospital beds.

In total or free on average? It's also the flu season and lots of other nasties around too. Some of those beds will go to people infected with other diseases.

Edited February 3, 2020 by DrTuner

[khunpa]

Just now, DrTuner said:

In total or free on average? It's also the flu season and lots of other nasties around too. Some of those beds will go to people infected with other diseases.

Total. Means that all beds would be fully reserved for PUI patients

[garyk]

Guess we will know in a few weeks. 

Either people will be reporting independently of deaths or it will be clear sailing.

Just read all Chinese will have to have a health certificate to enter now. 

Of course you can buy a health certificate from doctors cheap, no tests what so ever.

[bkkcanuck8]

2 hours ago, Haecksler said:

20% of cases severe & ICU required.

R0 = 2.5-4.0 which means highly contagious. When the hospitals are full and refuse to treat you, you might change your mind.

Did you ever had a pneumonia?

20% of what.... if 20% ended up in ARDS with a lack of resources... the mortality rate would not be 2% it would be significantly higher.

 

Advanced models indicate that while the current confirmed cases are 15,000, the number of actual cases are likely north of 200,000.   There are likely lots of people not showing up in the numbers at all right now because you can have it and be without symptoms (a troubling thing if you are trying to track contacts). 

 

You can also have it and test negative...  so the tests themselves are fallible.

 

What is the source for your 20% number?

 

I think I found the source for the 20% number, but you are misinterpreting it.   Of those that went to hospital, and were admitted to hospital then 20%+ cases were sever and required ICU or had ARDS.  The problem with quoting that number in isolation is the vast majority of those infected would NOT go to hospital and NOT be admitted to hospital but just be quarantined at home.

Edited February 3, 2020 by bkkcanuck8

[Don Mega]

6 hours ago, Haecksler said:

20% of cases severe & ICU required.

R0 = 2.5-4.0 which means highly contagious. When the hospitals are full and refuse to treat you, you might change your mind.

Did you ever had a pneumonia?

Bigger chance I'll die from getting run over by a bus than falling ill from this latest flu strain.

[bkkcanuck8]

54 minutes ago, Don Mega said:

Bigger chance I'll die from getting run over by a bus than falling ill from this latest flu strain.

Stop running back and forth across the street trying to get run over by a bus ????

[Don Mega]

1 minute ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

Stop running back and forth across the street trying to get run over by a bus ????

Been years since ive crossed the street on foot.

[IAMHERE]

We will know that coronavirus is bad in Thailand when they announce that they are about to start forming a committee to explore planning to build a hospital in 9 days.   ????

[mtls2005]

7 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

What is the source for your 20% number?

 

Have seen Dr. John Campbell reviewing the known figures from The Lancet and/or Johns Hopkins, showing ARDS at 17%

 

Based on the published figure of cases, now at ~ 19,881. Dr. Campbell has speculated that the "real" number of cases is (or was on 2 Feb) ~ 220,000. In which case the ARDS number would/might be closer to ~ 2%?

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[PingRoundTheWorld]

14 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

The current mortality rate is around 2%

No, that's the mortality rate the media is parroting from official numbers given by China. The numbers are likely much, much larger than that. Even if the numbers were real, all it's saying is that 2% have already died - it doesn't include all those who aren't dead YET. A study on 41 patients had 6 (15%) dying, another study had 11 out of 99 people dead. This thing is a lot worse than the media is portraying it, as they want to avoid a panic.

 

On the upside- a study of 8 chest donors showed the (only) Asian male donor had far more ACE2 receptors than white, black, or female. The virus uses those receptors as it's way in. It's inconclusive with such a small sample size, but assuming it's correct it would explain why the outbreak hit China so hard while not spreading as fast outside of it.

 

You can find the studies here: https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

[mtls2005]

21 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

No, that's the mortality rate the media is parroting from official numbers given by China.

Agreed.

 

But in the absence of other facts, perhaps not available now, we do have to acknowledge this figure. Remember that there are relatively few patients and they are getting attention and care, potentially increasing survivability. Once a few hundred thousand people contact the virus health care may be limited to paracetamol, so mortality rates could go up.

 

Conversely, only 624 have "recovered", so that's ~ 3.1%.

 

19,881 cases

426 deaths

623 recovered

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

I'd imagine Thailand will do anything and everything to avoid having to declare that first death?

[bkkcanuck8]

36 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

Once a few hundred thousand people contact the virus health care may be limited to paracetamol, so mortality rates could go up.

Unless they go to hospital with a temperature that is above normal (had that - it was not pleasant being dropped in a cold/ice bath) on the verge of organ damage, have severe pneumonia, or are in respiratory distress... that is the only thing that is available for you at the moment (and likely the duration of this outbreak) is paracetamol and bed rest.   In that case (especially early on) people would not be hospitalized.   There are also going to be large numbers of people that don't show severe symptoms (as per observations) and those will not have been counted (included in model, but not in confirmed).  So the mortality rate as published is going to have more on the denominator but also the numerator side of the equation.    I would expect the mortality rate as published to be on the low side, but I also think from current observations it is no where close to that of the Spanish Flu (10% based on 1/3 world population infected and global mortality rate of 3% including those that were not infected).   So lets just pick a number randomly (3% to 3.5%).  Those at highest risk would be those with preexisting conditions or other respiratory or pulmonary conditions that put them at risk, which means if you are a relatively healthy individual your risk would be substantially lower.  Why I chose the lower number SARS ended up being 10% (smaller sample) and this does not seem to have suck a high mortality rate at this point of the cycle. 

 

Is it serious - yes.  Will it be a global pandemic or will it be contained... I would say almost assuredly it has broken containment and will be a global pandemic on the scale of the Spanish Flu.    This will likely peak in about 4 months (though there are reports that it prefers cold weather and warmer weather will dampen the impact; in that case Thailand won't bear the brunt of it) and then with the majority of the population having exposure to this virus any further outbreak of a related coronavirus would not have as severe an impact.  But it is not something to panic over.  Prepare for disruptions yes, but don't panic. 

 

I think the biggest risk is that this mutates into a more deadly version and makes a reappearance the following year or the year after that.

Edited February 4, 2020 by bkkcanuck8

[Iron Tongue]

If spread of coronavirus in China gets worse, you'll see an increase of Chinese citizens visiting Thailand since only tour groups have been ended.  Rich & powerful don't do tour groups but can afford villas to hide far from the infected.