Thailand confirms six new cases of coronavirus, including four Thais - health ministry

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, khunpa said:

Here is an overview over the rise in PUI Patients in Thailand.

 

 

 

If I was going to do such a chart, given the way the Thais are reporting their statistics, I probably would have chosen the "patients receiving treatment in hospital" daily number as a better indicator of the path the virus is taking and the burden it's putting on local medical resources.  In that way, it automatically balances out the numbers on those being sent home vs. the new patients coming into hospitals.

 

 

[ukrules]

1 hour ago, FarFlungFalang said:

How come the numbers only go up?Don't any of them get better and go home as suggested in various news reports?

We're just getting started here

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Hong Kong expands its China entry restrictions to include a 14-day quarantine on all arrivals from Mainland China:

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3049102/coronavirus-hong-kong-government-extend-work-home

 

Quote

 

Coronavirus: Hong Kong to require all travellers entering from mainland China to go into quarantine for 14 days as city’s leader invokes special powers

 

All travellers from mainland China entering Hong Kong, including local residents, would be required to go into quarantine for 14 days, the city’s leader said on Wednesday, as she also disclosed the government was setting aside a HK$10 billion fund to tackle the deadly coronavirus  outbreak.
 

Confirming an earlier report by the Post, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor said the quarantine measures would be done through invoking the chief executive’s special powers under the Prevention and Control of Disease Ordinance.
 

The measure would take effect on Saturday to enable residents affected to make adjustments to their plans, she added. But Lam did not make it immediately clear how the quarantine would be enforced, including where the travellers would stay.

 

 

 

And meanwhile also in Hong Kong:

 

https://www.afp.com/en/news/3954/hong-kong-airline-cathay-pacific-asks-all-staff-take-unpaid-leave-doc-1op7ey7

Quote

 

CEO: Hong Kong airline Cathay asking 27,000 staff to take unpaid leave

AFP

 

Hong Kong's flagship carrier Cathay Pacific is asking its 27,000 employees to take up to three weeks of unpaid leave, CEO Augustus Tang said Wednesday, as the airline faces a crisis in the wake of the new coronavirus outbreak.

"I am hoping all of you will participate, from our frontline employees to our senior leaders, and share in our current challenges," Tang said in a video message posted online.

The request lays bare desperate times at Cathay, which was hammered last year by months of political chaos and protests in Hong Kong and has now been hurt further by the fallout from the virus outbreak.

 

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The latest scoreboard leaders from AP:

 

 

Japan got a boost to overtake Thailand, apparently because of the following development:

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/10-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-cruise-ship-quarantined-japan-n1130296

 

Quote

 

10 coronavirus cases confirmed from cruise ship quarantined in Japan
 

Ten people from a cruise ship quarantined off Japan have tested positive for the novel coronavirus that has sickened more than 24,000 people in mainland China and killed 490, officials said.
 

Japan's health minister, Katsunobu Kato, said Wednesday local time that the 10 people from the Diamond Princess will be escorted to a facility in Kanagawa prefecture, where Yokohama is located.

 

Princess Cruises identified the 10 who tested positive as nine guests — two Australians, three Japanese, three from Hong Kong, and one from the U.S. — as well as one Filipino crew member.

 

 

[HHTel]

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

No idea what "critical" there means. Likely in a hospital in bad shape.

You are absolutely correct.  There are many statistics, some good, some bad.  On the good side, Hubei province still accounts for over 95% of infections and deaths. If you spread the total number around the whole of China, it counts to 1 person in around 53,000 to contract the virus to date.  Bearing in mind that the majority of infections/deaths are in Hubei, it would appear that infection risk to the majority of the population is minute.

 

[geriatrickid]

6 hours ago, JerseytoBKK said:

"Do you really believe that  a 1000 bed hospital can be built in a week?" You're right - wasn't a week but 10 days. Guess you didn't see any of the live streaming video that was broadcast during construction? The rooms are pre-fab. 7,000+ workers. Construction 24 hours a day. I'm definitely not a fan of the Chinese gov, but you got to give them credit for their response and ability to mobilize.

 

Here are some pics: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/world/asia/coronavirus-wuhan-hospital.html and https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/pictures-wuhan-fast-built-hospital-200203080542994.html

 

 

Yes, I have seen the photos, I have also seen some of the equipment.

Why do you think it takes 2 years to build a hospital  of similar size in China?

Let's look at the stated purpose of the building; It is is to hold and treat 1000 infected patients.

Now let's look at the set up;

A little less than half the beds are located in general wards. And the other sligthly less than half  the beds are set up as "isolation wards". Now, I don't know about you, but the for the developed world the  SOP for infectious diseases is to actually isolate the patient. This means an individual room, not a ward, and not a room with curtains that can go around someone.  This is the  accepted practice.  The ward approach  was criticized 25+years ago, so this isn't a new concept as being a major deficiency. After SARS and multiple c. difficile outbreaks, hospitals in North America started retrofitting to single rooms.

The new hospital features 30 isolation rooms. THIRTY. On its own, it is an impressive number, but 30 is not 1000 and inadequate for a serious epidemic.

 Now , have a close look at the ventilation system. It's on the outside of the building in  non protected ducts. This is how hospitals can succumb to mold and fungus infestations. Perhaps the Chinese intend to dismantle the facility in 60 days, because that's about all  they have before they end up with a mold crisis.

 

Yes, I have seen the fancy medical devices. It will be quite something if those machines are even working as it takes some time to calibrate and test devices like MRI equipment before they are ready to be used.

 

Yes, indeed the Chinese constructed a building quickly. Good job. However, what I see is a location where the  design will be such that we will see more patients become ill and die from infections other than the novel corona virus. I anticipate serious GI  infections.  This is not because it is a Chinese facility, but rather it is the common outcome in hospitals which have wards.

 

[cheapcanuck]

Where are the affected living/employed? Bangkok, Phuket, etc, etc?

[xerostar]

Got a taxi today for a 3 hour journey.

After 15 minutes the (approx 50 year old) driver coughed. 

He was wearing a mask over his mouth but not over his nose.

I asked him if he had transported Chinese people.

He confirmed that he had and continued to to cough at approx 20 minute intervals.

I was tempted to abandon the taxi but thought it's too late now.

Why doesn't the govt impose mandatory daily testing of all taxi drivers?

If he has the Corona virus then I am already infected. As one poster commented the interior of a taxi is probably the most likely place apart from an aircraft where you could become infected.

Anyway, I wished him a fast recovery and good luck and suggested Buddha will decide our fate.

After arriving home I self medicated on 285 Blend with ice and coke (zero sugar, must take care of my teeth)

I'm over 74 years of age and live alone. 
I read that this age group is more likely to die from the the virus and the time from exposure until death can be a short as 6 days.  
I feel a sore throat coming on already or is that just my imagination?

I feel now my only choice is to stay in self-imposed isolation for two weeks to see if:
a) I stay well
b) get sick and go to hospital for tests 
c) wait until I die
d) recover

I don't want to pass any infection on to my family (or anyone really) but apparently you can be infective for two weeks after contracting the virus, without knowing it.

What would you do?

 

Edited February 5, 2020 by xerostar
I was not finished but the app thought I was

[Roadkillaf]

If no one's figured it out yet, take the reported number of "confirmations" and extrapolate, 1000%. Someone check my math in 4 weeks. Then extrapolate, 100%.

????

[Traubert]

2 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

Yes, I have seen the photos, I have also seen some of the equipment.

Why do you think it takes 2 years to build a hospital  of similar size in China?

Let's look at the stated purpose of the building; It is is to hold and treat 1000 infected patients.

Now let's look at the set up;

A little less than half the beds are located in general wards. And the other sligthly less than half  the beds are set up as "isolation wards". Now, I don't know about you, but the for the developed world the  SOP for infectious diseases is to actually isolate the patient. This means an individual room, not a ward, and not a room with curtains that can go around someone.  This is the  accepted practice.  The ward approach  was criticized 25+years ago, so this isn't a new concept as being a major deficiency. After SARS and multiple c. difficile outbreaks, hospitals in North America started retrofitting to single rooms.

The new hospital features 30 isolation rooms. THIRTY. On its own, it is an impressive number, but 30 is not 1000 and inadequate for a serious epidemic.

 Now , have a close look at the ventilation system. It's on the outside of the building in  non protected ducts. This is how hospitals can succumb to mold and fungus infestations. Perhaps the Chinese intend to dismantle the facility in 60 days, because that's about all  they have before they end up with a mold crisis.

 

Yes, I have seen the fancy medical devices. It will be quite something if those machines are even working as it takes some time to calibrate and test devices like MRI equipment before they are ready to be used.

 

Yes, indeed the Chinese constructed a building quickly. Good job. However, what I see is a location where the  design will be such that we will see more patients become ill and die from infections other than the novel corona virus. I anticipate serious GI  infections.  This is not because it is a Chinese facility, but rather it is the common outcome in hospitals which have wards.

 

Mate, this is a serious epidemic:

 

In a report released Friday, federal health officials said there have been at least 2.6 million flu illnesses this year and 23,000 hospitalizations. Over 1300 deaths. This in under 7 weeks.

 

And it isn't in China. It dwarfs the corona virus death rate with all the fancy dan stuff you're talking about above. So get off the bandwagon and put down the handbook eh? They are doing a good job by any standards.

[Traubert]

1 hour ago, xerostar said:

Got a taxi today for a 3 hour journey.

After 15 minutes the (approx 50 year old) driver coughed. 

He was wearing a mask over his mouth but not over his nose.

I asked him if he had transported Chinese people.

He confirmed that he had and continued to to cough at approx 20 minute intervals.

I was tempted to abandon the taxi but thought it's too late now.

Why doesn't the govt impose mandatory daily testing of all taxi drivers?

If he has the Corona virus then I am already infected. As one poster commented the interior of a taxi is probably the most likely place apart from an aircraft where you could become infected.

Anyway, I wished him a fast recovery and good luck and suggested Buddha will decide our fate.

After arriving home I self medicated on 285 Blend with ice and coke (zero sugar, must take care of my teeth)

I'm over 74 years of age and live alone. 
I read that this age group is more likely to die from the the virus and the time from exposure until death can be a short as 6 days.  
I feel a sore throat coming on already or is that just my imagination?

I feel now my only choice is to stay in self-imposed isolation for two weeks to see if:
a) I stay well
b) get sick and go to hospital for tests 
c) wait until I die
d) recover

I don't want to pass any infection on to my family (or anyone really) but apparently you can be infective for two weeks after contracting the virus, without knowing it.

What would you do?

 

Stop worrying and completely avoid this forum.

[bkkcanuck8]

1 hour ago, xerostar said:

Why doesn't the govt impose mandatory daily testing of all taxi drivers?

Easy, they would not have the bandwidth to do random testing.  There is already a rather substantial backlog.  There are limited facilities that can test for this specific virus.  In fact even in a first world country like the US, currently the only lab that can test for it is CDC HQ in Atlanta.

 

1 hour ago, xerostar said:

I feel now my only choice is to stay in self-imposed isolation for two weeks to see if:

a) I stay well
b) get sick and go to hospital for tests 
c) wait until I die
d) recover

I don't want to pass any infection on to my family (or anyone really) but apparently you can be infective for two weeks after contracting the virus, without knowing it.

What would you do?

 

The likelihood that you drew the golden ticket is incredibly small right now...  Assuming you are not elderly or have other preexisting conditions reduce your bodies oxygen intake... even if you were to get sick - and it was not mostly asymptomatic... it would just be a rough flu and then eventually get better.

Edited February 5, 2020 by bkkcanuck8

[AndrewMciver]

So just to clarify - even Hong Kong are putting restructions on Chinese entering, but Thailand is still allowing them in freely !!!!

 

????

[ukrules]

2 hours ago, AndrewMciver said:

So just to clarify - even Hong Kong are putting restructions on Chinese entering, but Thailand is still allowing them in freely !!!!

 

????

Yeah, how crazy is that - China literally owns Hong Kong and they're quarantining the Chinese now.

[rkidlad]

2 hours ago, ukrules said:

Yeah, how crazy is that - China literally owns Hong Kong and they're quarantining the Chinese now.

If anyone understands this virus and the virus that is the CCP, it is Hong Kong. 
 

 

[HHTel]

5 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

even in a first world country like the US, currently the only lab that can test for it is CDC HQ in Atlanta.

The FDA has just approved a test kit for WuFlu which will be sent to all state labs.

[mtls2005]

12 hours ago, Traubert said:

3.1% as of this morning.

 

Think that's for Hubei Porvince.

 

Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

 

[mikebell]

If a Chinese worker sneezes when packing a case for export & a Thai worker inhales whilst unpacking it, could it be transmitted?  Should we ban all Lazada imports?

[FarFlungFalang]

12 hours ago, ukrules said:

We're just getting started here

I was thinking that once they have been investigated and recovered then they would no longer be "under investigation" and therefore be removed from the list of those "under investigation" which would reduce the number of "those under investigation".I would have thought the number would be fluid,so to speak.

[metisdead]

A post using a video from an unapproved YouTube source has been removed. 

[mtls2005]

32 minutes ago, mikebell said:

If a Chinese worker sneezes when packing a case for export & a Thai worker inhales whilst unpacking it, could it be transmitted?  Should we ban all Lazada imports?

 

Depends.

 

Did you request expedited shipping?

 

It has been shown in studies of SARS, that ambient temperature seems to be a factor, the higher the temperature the quicker the virus expires. But still it might be a few days, up to 28 days.

 

How long can SARS-CoV survive in the environment?
Preliminary studies in some research laboratories suggest that the virus may survive in the environment for several days. The length of time that the virus survives likely depends on a number of factors. These factors could include the type of material or body fluid containing the virus and various environmental conditions such as temperature or humidity. Researchers at CDC and other institutions are designing standardized experiments to measure how long SARS-CoV can survive in situations that simulate natural environmental conditions.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/faq.html

 

 

Maybe leave the package outdoors for a few weeks?

 

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

 

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by mtls2005

[HHTel]

Quote

Q: Am I at risk for novel coronavirus from a package or products shipping from China?

 

There is still a lot that is unknown about the newly emerged 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and how it spreads. Two other coronaviruses have emerged previously to cause severe illness in people (MERS and SARS). 2019-nCoV is more genetically related to SARS than MERS, but both are betacoronaviruses with their origins in bats. While we don’t know for sure that this virus will behave the same way as SARS and MERS, we can use the information from both of these earlier coronaviruses to guide us. In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures. Coronaviruses are generally thought to be spread most often by respiratory droplets. 

Also from the CDC site but answering a more relevant question:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html

 

[Rod the Sod]

22 hours ago, thesetat2013 said:

OK. Compare population of China to population of the world. Then multiply the current death rate in China as well as the critical condition rate be that number. If this infection acts like the flu and spreads worldwide and contaminates at that rate as well as the mortality rate. Then maybe you will see the grander picture of how deadly this virus could obtain and achieve. Downplayed the way. You are making it seem is both ignorant and irresponsible. 

That is why I asked for guidance from people in the know. It was an opportunity for more people to be better informed. Your reply is all too typical of those who are soooo opinionated when armed with a keyboard. I think the irresponsibility is all yours.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

6 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I was thinking that once they have been investigated and recovered then they would no longer be "under investigation" and therefore be removed from the list of those "under investigation" which would reduce the number of "those under investigation".I would have thought the number would be fluid,so to speak.

 

No, as best as I can tell, the numbers the Thai government reports as PUI "Patients Under Investigation" are cumulative, and the cases (confirmed or just suspected) that are eventually released from hospital don't end up being subtracted from that cumulative total -- which to me makes absolutely no sense.

 

Thus, because of that, the number that I watch more closely day to day is the actual or suspect patients receiving hospital treatment number, 348 as of yesterday... Because that one DOES get adjusted up or down as new patients become PUI or prior ones eventually get sent home.

 

The report issued today covering up thru yesterday, Feb. 5:

 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

 

19 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The latest scoreboard leaders from AP:

 

 

 

An updated CV scoreboard today from AP. Thailand has fallen behind Japan and Singapore for the moment:

 

 

https://apnews.com/VirusOutbreak

 

Other than its 16 confirmed CV cases still in hospital out of a total 25, Thailand still has 330+ listed in hospital as "patients under investigation" or PUI...  along with a large (400+) backlog of unfinished test results as of a few days ago.

 

Since Thailand two days ago stopped publicly reporting the backlog of patients awaiting final CV test results, we no longer have any idea what's become of that backlog group who remain in hospitals, or what they're ultimately being diagnosed as having...

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Just for comparison purposes, I wonder how many undiagnosed/suspect PUI cases that Japan and Singapore have hospitalized comparable to Thailand's current 330+ number?

[khunpa]

Have been taking the numbers from https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/ and putting them into a spreadsheet to get some overview of the situation in Thailand.

 

Seems they stopped telling the numbers of Tests results pending on 01.02.2020. The day before 287 people was still waiting for their test results. Would be interesting to know how may pending test results there still are left. Notice the amount of pending test results has grown a lot.

 

Also strange is that the number of Pending Test Results exceeds the number of the Total number of people hospitalised from 27.01.2020 and onwards. Maybe home/self-isolation could explain this. OR people are being sent home if diagnosed with other stuff, without their coronavirus test results.

Another thing is the amount of people being sent home (I guess without test results) and no people being reported in isolation from 14.01.2020 to 25.01.2020.

 

Lots of unknown in the numbers published. Amount of Pending Test Results, is for sure very high up until they stop telling those figures.
 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by khunpa

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

15 minutes ago, khunpa said:

Have been taking the numbers from https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/ and putting them into a spreadsheet to get some overview of the situation in Thailand.

 

Seems they stopped telling the numbers of Tests results pending on 01.02.2020. The day before 287 people was still waiting for their test results. Would be interesting to know how may pending test results there still are left. Notice the amount of pending test results has grown a lot.

 

Also strange is that the number of Pending Test Results exceeds the number of the Total number of people hospitalised from 27.01.2020 and onwards. Maybe home/self-isolation could explain this.

Another thing is the amount of people being sent home (I guess without test results) and no people being reported in isolation from 14.01.2020 to 25.01.2020.

 

Lots of unknown in the numbers published. Amount of Pending Test Results, is for sure very high up until they stop telling those figures.
 

 

 

 

 

 

Your total suspected cases pending lab test results numbers are wrong. The number for those peaked at 405 in the daily status report for Feb. 2.  There had been daily updates of that number up through Feb. 2. But that was the last time such data was publicly reported.

 

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no30-020263_1.pdf

 

Also, it's never been clear to me what to make of their listing of "investigation in isolation room".  If those are people who are being treated in hospitals, then it makes no sense to break them out as a separate/additional number beyond the category for those being treated in hospitals... Because they also would be being treated in hospitals...  If that was the case, they would be a subset of the total hospitalized number, not an additional category...

 

So why they're counting that group separately, and what exactly that classification means, I'm hesitant to make assumptions.

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[FarFlungFalang]

The numbers on the worldometer site make for interesting interpretation and the question has been asked why does Wuhan have a death rate of 4.9% the province of Hubei 3.1% and the death rate in the other provinces 0.16%.When the outbreak stated the spread went unnoticed for a period of time (anybodies guess how long) during that time many would have been infected and infected many more (it's very virulent) since most of these early cases displayed only mild flu like they went unreported making it almost impossible to determine with any accuracy the true rate of deaths in this early period of the outbreak so they just went with the unreliable inaccurate numbers they could get at the time.These numbers now seem to be firmly entrenched in the lists we see on the net and are taken as "on face value".History should show wether this is the case as I believe it is.Note the 0.16% Fatality rate closely resembles most of the commonly accepted other flu fatality rates of 0.13%

 

  

• Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
• Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
• Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.
• Fatality rate in other provinces is 0.16%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

[khunpa]

8 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Your total suspected cases pending lab test results numbers are wrong. The number for those peaked at 405 in the daily status report for Feb. 2.  That was the last time such data was publicly reported.

 

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no30-020263_1.pdf

You are right... Thanks.... Updated...