Coronavirus outbreak has turned Asia’s best-performing currency into one of the worst

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, jesimps said:

All of us who don't work here have a vested interest, in that we have to change our currency for baht. We generally love Thailand, but we have to think about surviving financially, therefore what's bad for Thailand is generally good for the exchange rate. If it wasn't for that, I'm sure we'd all be sympathetic during the present situation.

I appreciate and understand those things. But I have to say I have little sympathy for some longer term residents in that context because the opportunity was always there to transfer funds over many years, at a higher exchange rate. The only thing that prevented them from doing so was a lack of faith in the future of the Thai economy and a bizarre and abnormal distrust of Thai banks. For several years on TVF there were ongoing debates about falling exchange rates and a strengthening Baht, the writing was very clearly on the wall yet many chose to deny it. 

[AussieBob18]

14 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

I missed that one, x wife back in the old country just gave birth to our first daughter and I was completing my second degree while working as well, my head was truely up my rear, with her post natal depression as well, doctors excuse, with my reply being, nah, she's been like that, i.e. a spoilt Greek Princess since the day I met her, her father took the opportunity to kick her out when he found out about me and there I was, "sucker", true story ????

 

Sorry to hear - I know how you feel - many have a similar story - that is why many ended up in Thailand - now things have never been better ????  I mean at home of course - I too hope the Baht drops a lot 

 

[jesimps]

1 minute ago, saengd said:

I appreciate and understand those things. But I have to say I have little sympathy for some longer term residents in that context because the opportunity was always there to transfer funds over many years, at a higher exchange rate. The only thing that prevented them from doing so was a lack of faith in the future of the Thai economy and a bizarre and abnormal distrust of Thai banks. For several years on TVF there were ongoing debates about falling exchange rates and a strengthening Baht, the writing was very clearly on the wall yet many chose to deny it. 

If I could predict what the forex market was going to do I'd be a fabulously rich man by now. I personally did transfer money when the baht was lower, but not because I was able to predict that the pound would go lower, but because I needed a house for my family and me. I did personally try forex trading for a while but got out quick when I lost a few bob and realised that it wasn't as easy I thought it was. One other thing, if you use the opinions of people on here to judge currency movements, you're doomed from the outset.

[4MyEgo]

4 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Sorry to hear - I know how you feel - many have a similar story - that is why many ended up in Thailand - now things have never been better ????  I mean at home of course - I too hope the Baht drops a lot 

 

Don't be sorry, best thing that ever happened to me, x wife leaving me that is, as for her taking our 18 month old daughter with her, well, what can I say, she is approaching 23 now and we have a good relationship, loves my Thai wife like her 2nd mum, still calls her mum, talks to her more than me...lol

 

The baht should drop marginally further in the short term, i.e. back to where it should have been before they inflated it ????, next 2-3 months you might see it going back up, but my crystal ball is a bit foggy at the moment.

 

Things are and have always been great in Thailand apart from a few of her warts, smoke from farmers burning their crops, rubbish littered just about everywhere you go, lack of police to enforce safety on the roads, albeit their usual twice a month roadblocks looking for tea money, but it is what it is and we wouldn't be here if we didn't want to be here, some don't have that choice as their finances have fried up and they depend on the pensioner.  

[phantomfiddler]

15 hours ago, Lacessit said:

The coronavirus fatalities are far worse than the Chinese authorities are admitting. Entire supply chains are being shut down as cities in China are in lockdown. It is not good news for anybody, with the possible exception of the medical industry.

Tis an ill wind that blows naebody any guid.......Rabbie Burns, I believe ????

[AussieBob18]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

Almost everybody in this thread seems to really enjoy being critical of Thailand and seeing the country get hurt or damaged as result of the virus, the baht, the economy, the government. I'm guessing none of you actually live in Thailand and that you're all just posting from bedsits in Morecambe or Bangor, if that's not the case and you actually live here, why are you still here if you dislike the place so much?

We live in both and we both hate what the Chinese/Thai elite have been doing to the country - that is why I criticise their false lies and Chinese controlled Govt policies, and that is why we both hope the Baht and economy crashes soom (it will eventually).  Obviously Expats working here and/or owning property have it good, as does the weathy Thais/Chinese, but the vast majority of Thais are doing it tough and have been for years.  When the recession comes and the baht crashes (and it will) it will not hurt the vast majority of Thais much - but it will hurt the Thai/Chinese rich (and unfortunately the Expats above). That is why I keep saying to them to plan ahead and keep alert about things.  IMO the corona virus will not the evbent that leads to the crash, and that it will blow over in a few months.  But the crash is coming, and as I have said before many times, when the Chinese decide to stop propping up Thai economy/baht (for whatever reason - including to protect their own) that is when it will crash - and it will crash bigly.  Geopolitics is why China props up Thailand - and they are fully supported by this Govt and all the Thai/Chinese weakthy here - but politics changes mainly due to external events. 

 

    

[thailand49]

R.I.P Strong  baht.????

[parafareno]

i hope it falls to 45 / eur so i can buy few condos....

[Tayaout]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

Almost everybody in this thread seems to really enjoy being critical of Thailand and seeing the country get hurt or damaged as result of the virus, the baht, the economy, the government. I'm guessing none of you actually live in Thailand and that you're all just posting from bedsits in Morecambe or Bangor, if that's not the case and you actually live here, why are you still here if you dislike the place so much?

I think those who complain all the time would do it from anywhere they happen to live. The neighbours grass always seem greener and stuff. 

Edited February 7, 2020 by Tayaout

[parafareno]

you can all dream about weak baht......people will still come here after corona is fixed....it will get stronger and stronger

[hansnl]

12 hours ago, anto said:

Yes .

The EU isn't doing well also, so is the Euro.

More countries are nearing a possible break with that "union'.

[HHTel]

10 hours ago, champers said:

The Baht has moved from 39 to 40 against the pound. I won't be dancing in the streets till it gets to 50. Hope I'm still around to see it.

Yeh, the gbp rallied on Brexit becoming a reality.  Was heading for 42....... then Boris opened his mouth and it came back down.  

[ChipButty]

Im keeping my eye on the property markets should be some good bargains coming up

[30la]

16 hours ago, webfact said:

Coronavirus outbreak has turned Asia’s best-performing currency into one of the worst

Corona is now responsible for everything that happens in Thailand, I expect the information soon that is also responsible for the breathable air and road deaths!

[ChipButty]

Pound to Baht forecast 

http://poundf.co.uk/pound-to-baht-forecast-gbp-to-thb

[saengd]

3 minutes ago, ChipButty said:

Pound to Baht forecast 

http://poundf.co.uk/pound-to-baht-forecast-gbp-to-thb

That forecast is not intended to be a guide for punters, it is a base forecast for business that is the starting point for fiscal planning purposes, it is not the end product 

[Assurancetourix]

1 hour ago, BobbyL said:

For the expats working here and earning a good salary the high THB is great. 

But for all those who live here, the farang retreats and for example the Thai people, would you have forgotten them? who never leave their country because they do not have a passport or simply because they do not have the means to go outside the borders of the country, that complicates our life.

 

How many hundreds of expats live on royal wages?

 

Most expats live on a local contract, so far from earning a lot of money.
and I know pensions, eg my neighbor (4 km) Norwegian who has a more than comfortable retirement, about 180,000 baht fall on his Thai bank account every month;
well he is not happy at all because in recent years he has lost a lot on the exchange.

[saengd]

1 minute ago, Assurancetourix said:

But for all those who live here, the farang retreats and for example the Thai people, would you have forgotten them? who never leave their country because they do not have a passport or simply because they do not have the means to go outside the borders of the country, that complicates our life.

 

How many hundreds of expats live on royal wages?

 

Most expats live on a local contract, so far from earning a lot of money.
and I know pensions, eg my neighbor (4 km) Norwegian who has a more than comfortable retirement, about 180,000 baht fall on his Thai bank account every month;
well he is not happy at all because in recent years he has lost a lot on the exchange.

A few points:

 

The number of Thai people travelling overseas rose from 8 million in 2018 to 12 million in 2019, solely on the back of a strong Baht.

 

I don't know any expats in Thailand who are employed but I do know quite a few who are retired and most have assets in the middle wealth category, keep 800k in the bank for visa purposes year round and live in houses that are worth at least 6 million baht. I for one keep several million baht in Thai banks and I know other who do the same, simply because it's a strong currency and doing so avoids exchange rate worries.

[The Deerhunter]

16 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

Going to get worse before it gets better, lots going to lose out in businesses etc etc, hopefully night in life from the virus, it's only money, up/down, if people are not too heavily in debt, those in business, they will survive, but I know Thai's love to borrow.

 

The above said, will be keeping my eye on some opportunities, might be a few Rolex's up for sale cheap in a month or two or three.

No. His salary will. not be affected!! 555

[Zack61]

16 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

 

The above said, will be keeping my eye on some opportunities, might be a few Rolex's up for sale cheap in a month or two or three.

Why buy when you can borrow 

[bronzedude]

Where has this economist been? There have been numerous articles and agencies stating that Thailand is too dependent on China. Just jumping on the bandwagon to get some publicity? Sounds more like a Thai politician. And going from 30.80 to 31 against the dollar is only a ripple in the garbage strewn bay of Thailand.

[Dustdevil]

Yes, well it's still only barely 31 to the dollar. And that's the official rate. You'll still get a measly 30 at the exchange. It will take a massive bubonic plague combined with millions rioting in the streets to get it to a lousy 32. 

Edited February 7, 2020 by Dustdevil

[hotchilli]

16 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

HAHaHahaha (sorry...)

Ha ha ha ha .... I'm not, keep falling!

[4MyEgo]

7 minutes ago, Zack61 said:

Why buy when you can borrow 

Funny that, a mate of mine over here on holidays purchased a Rolex for around 20K back in the old country and as I was going back for a holiday in two weeks, he asked me if I could take it back for him and give it to him when I arrive.

 

He was scared of being pulled up as he didn't want to pay back the discount he got, i.e. 10% GST or something like that, I said, I would do it, all care taken but no responsibility on my part if lost, stolen or damaged, although I said I would keep it in my safe, he said it's insured, and he want me to wear it all the time, I said no way, not going to feel comfortable and don't want to get mugged, my way or the highway, he reluctantly said yes and I gave it back to him in the home country.

 

As for me ever buying a Rolex, could easily afford one, 2, 3 of them but my ego will never be that big, am happy with my 2,000 baht fitbiz ????

 

[bangkoken]

Stronger dollar+ healthy environment + honest tourism officials = Lots of tourist and the return of Happy Times.

[ThailandRyan]

2 hours ago, saengd said:

Only 12% of Thai exports go to China, Thailand is far more dependent on the US market if anything.

http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-import-partners/

 

 

 

External from China is where Thailand became dependent.  Purchases of Military goods, and importing the tourists as the primary source of tourism.  Should have spread the wealth and not been so hard on the Western/European tourists.  Back in 2011 the Visa from the US to come here was free.  Now its pushed in a different location.  How about making it a level playing field for all who want to come visit or live here.  The Visa, and extension issues have become another cluster.  Why are folks from the Asean countries held to a different standard for obtaining there extensions of stay, why are they given 2 year extensions for a job related visa extension, when we have to jump through the hoops every year.  If you want the economy to stabilize then you have to soften the stance of Good Guys In/ Bad Guys out. Money talks and <deleted> walks. 

Edited February 7, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[Guderian]

They think it's bad now?

Just wait until the effects of the loss of tourism, the nationwide drought and the epidemic of excessive personal debt all combine to bring the economy to its knees.

1997 - part II: the crash returns!

[rod40a]

17 hours ago, Lacessit said:

The coronavirus fatalities are far worse than the Chinese authorities are admitting. Entire supply chains are being shut down as cities in China are in lockdown. It is not good news for anybody, with the possible exception of the medical industry.

Read a email from UKs leading research centre corona virus worse than all the recent epidemics put together no cure no Vaccine and mutates and they were just waiting for a cross over decease from animal to human this ain’t flue  

[BestB]

17 hours ago, Lacessit said:

The coronavirus fatalities are far worse than the Chinese authorities are admitting. Entire supply chains are being shut down as cities in China are in lockdown. It is not good news for anybody, with the possible exception of the medical industry.

Chinese official figures 2 days ago was 24000 dead, which really means at least double if not triple that

[SupermarineS6B]

17 hours ago, lazygourmet said:

1997 came to mind. 

Did it in 97, went down to Rolex In Phrom Phong with a wedge in me hand and they shut the doors and blew me a raspberry......  Spat the dummy and ran off with the stumps.......