Thailand reports seven new coronavirus cases - health ministry

[ourmanflint]

33 minutes ago, DLock said:

The numbers still make little sense.

 

Thailand has 595 people under observation and 32 confirmed cases, a ratio of approximately 18:1.

 

China has 34,575 confirmed cases, and if the ratio is somewhat accurate, China must have around 622,000 PUI.

 

Either China doesn't know that PUI number (likely) or Thailand are not being timely and truthful about concerting PUI to confirmed (also likely).

 

If we had the China PUI approximation, we could calculate the probably ratio that should be converting to confirmed in Thailand. The delay of information, the growing list of PUI and tests yet to be completed...it just feels very dodgy.

 

The numbers will become clearer over time.

 

 

 

China suspected cases are lower than confirmed cases

 

https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

 

[smutcakes]

37 minutes ago, ExpatLife said:

No idea, but it should be quite easy to see that the way things are going, it's going to be a similar situation. Wuhan has a population of 11 million, Bangkok has 8 million. The outbreak in Wuhan started with 1 person, there is at least 1 infection in Bangkok. Thailand is doing very very little to stop this outbreak, or moreover they are not implementing effective strategies, while letting in potentially infected people daily. How many people are currently walking around Bangkok with the virus without symptoms in the incubation period, passing it onto people? Nobody knows but it is probably in the thousands.. How many people will have the virus without symptoms in 2 weeks? Nobody knows, but again it's going to be a lot. 

What about Hong Kong, Tokyo? what are they doing or have done differently? The traffic between Hong kong and China is much higher than Thailand.

[Gatsby69]

Underestimated or Hidden' coronavirus cases

From The Guardian :

"A study by academics from Harvard University analysed the number of passengers taking flights from Wuhan to destinations around the world, and found that the number of cases identified in both Indonesia and Cambodia appeared below what might be expected. The study, published quickly to improve scientists’ understanding of the outbreak, has not been peer reviewed, but adds to mounting fears that cases are not being identified.

It also suggested that cases recorded in Thailand, where 25 people have tested positive, were below the number scientists might expect to see. Cambodia has so far confirm×ed one case of coronavirus."

 

[smutcakes]

3 minutes ago, Gatsby69 said:

Underestimated or Hidden' coronavirus cases

From The Guardian :

"A study by academics from Harvard University analysed the number of passengers taking flights from Wuhan to destinations around the world, and found that the number of cases identified in both Indonesia and Cambodia appeared below what might be expected. The study, published quickly to improve scientists’ understanding of the outbreak, has not been peer reviewed, but adds to mounting fears that cases are not being identified.

It also suggested that cases recorded in Thailand, where 25 people have tested positive, were below the number scientists might expect to see. Cambodia has so far confirm×ed one case of coronavirus."

 

Kind of get this feeling as well. Same with India. I suppose a couple of possible reasons could be that it is not so easily transferable in hot conditions, or simply there are lots of people with mild cases who just never go to a doctor and just put it down to being sick normally and its only toe with more severe cases who go to the hospitals.

(I am not a doctor so the hot weather thing is just an idea, no idea if its even a possibility)

[ExpatLife]

11 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

What about Hong Kong, Tokyo? what are they doing or have done differently? The traffic between Hong kong and China is much higher than Thailand.

For a start Hong Kong closed their schools until at least March, this was issued about 10 days ago now. They also closed their borders to China, and as of 3 days ago imposes a 14 day mandatory quarantine to all visitors from mainland China. Even China itself cancelled lunar celebrations, Thailand didn't. Thailand also hasn't closed schools, Thailand hasn't stopped flights or closed borders, they are not issuing quarantines to all visitors from China, they also didn't even screen me while leaving at the airport a few days ago.  

[GeorgeCross]

2 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Kind of get this feeling as well. Same with India. I suppose a couple of possible reasons could be that it is not so easily transferable in hot conditions, or simply there are lots of people with mild cases who just never go to a doctor and just put it down to being sick normally and its only toe with more severe cases who go to the hospitals.

(I am not a doctor so the hot weather thing is just an idea, no idea if its even a possibility)

 

hahaha wouldn't that be great

 

the cure is to sit by the pool all day with a pina colada!

 

 

[Thaidream]

15 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

You cannot calculate a "ratio" for suspected to actual cases to calculate anything. Not even in the same country let alone across countries.

 

How many people are categorized as suspected cases depends on the croteria used -- which is constantly changing and dictated by a host of facrors, some if them practical - and how readily people meeting the criteria can be found which varies greatly from place to place and over time.

 

Israel just categorized a child as suspected simply because she had a fever and diarrhea (as children often do) and had recently been in Thailand.  So few people meet such criteria that they can afford to do this. Thailand is NOT categorizing every child within its borders with fever and diarrhea as a suspected case; that would be wildly impractical. 

Thank you for a professional explanation of  the situation.

 

IMO- fear and hysteria  will be worse than the actual virus if we allow it  to consume us.

 

Logic tels me that Wuhan is still the center of this virus and will remain so.  The virus will eventually burn itself out Everyone needs to follow practical guidelines by the WHO.

 

Everytime I go out and touch anything- an ATM; a shopping cart; I then return and wash my hands.  I have to remember never to touch my face  until the washing is complete.

 

I am avoiding crowds when possible and avoiding mass transportation.  IMO if everyone takes care of themselves and follows the guidelines- the impact in Thailand will remain minimal.

[smutcakes]

3 minutes ago, ExpatLife said:

For a start Hong Kong closed their schools until at least March, this was issued about 10 days ago now. They also closed their borders to China, and as of 3 days ago imposes a 14 day mandatory quarantine to all visitors from mainland China. Even China itself cancelled lunar celebrations, Thailand didn't. Thailand also hasn't closed schools, Thailand hasn't stopped flights or closed borders, they are not issuing quarantines to all visitors from China, they also didn't even screen me while leaving at the airport a few days ago.  

so 3 days ago they closed some crossings, kind of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. If what you said in your original post about Thailand having thousands of peple walking around infecting people, by the same token that would still be the case in loads of other major cities..

[248900_1469958220]

12 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Kind of get this feeling as well. Same with India. I suppose a couple of possible reasons could be that it is not so easily transferable in hot conditions, or simply there are lots of people with mild cases who just never go to a doctor and just put it down to being sick normally and its only toe with more severe cases who go to the hospitals.

(I am not a doctor so the hot weather thing is just an idea, no idea if its even a possibility)

This is something I brought up on another thread about this virus. The flu thrives in wintery....conditions. I have heard quotes of it lasting up to 28 days on  surfaces BUT that was at about 4 degrees celcius. How long would it last at 33 + degrees celcius? One would imagine it would die off pretty quickly....right?

[christophe75]

I think we could see... a slight "statistical discrepancy"...

 

COUNTRY.... NUMBER OF CHINESE TOURISTS IN 2019....# OF CONFIRMED CASES

Japan... 4,5 millions... 25 cases
Singapore 3,4 millions... 33 cases
South Korea 5,5 millions... 24 cases

Thailand 11 millions... 32 cases

 

In january, almost 1 million Chinese visited Thailand.

 

There were 6 daily direct flights between Wuhan and BKK (Suva + Don Muang) (i did a quick calculation, you could check)

 

However, the increasing temperatures for instance could "weaken" this virus.

 

One could argue that... Singapore is not "cold"... Anyway.

 

Or... it could be the effect of our som tam, or tom yum kung... ????

 

Who knows ?

 

Last but not least... You should read the history of the "spanish flu" from 1918... Very interesting. And several "parallels" with the current situation.

 

Scientists were adamant (i'm 50 years old and i ve got the feeling that i hear and read this since high school) : such a pandemic would return. It's was certainty... The only question was the date.

 

Could the Wuwuflu be "simply" the return of the "spanish flu" of 1918 ?

Edited February 8, 2020 by christophe75

[smutcakes]

8 minutes ago, 248900_1469958220 said:

This is something I brought up on another thread about this virus. The flu thrives in wintery....conditions. I have heard quotes of it lasting up to 28 days on  surfaces BUT that was at about 4 degrees celcius. How long would it last at 33 + degrees celcius? One would imagine it would die off pretty quickly....right?

There are some articles which document research that shows that transmission is reduced in areas of heat and humid conditions.

[smutcakes]

2 minutes ago, christophe75 said:

I think we could see... a slight "statistical discrepancy"...

 

COUNTRY.... NUMBER OF CHINESE TOURISTS IN 2019....# OF CONFIRMED CASES

Japan... 4,5 millions... 25 cases
Singapore 3,4 millions... 33 cases
South Korea 5,5 millions... 24 cases

Thailand 11 millions... 32 cases

 

In january, almost 1 million Chinese visited Thailand.

 

There were 6 daily direct flights between Wuhan and BKK (Suva + Don Muang) (i did a quick calculation, you could check)

 

However, the increasing temperatures for instance could "weaken" this virus.

 

One could argue that... Singapore is not "cold"... Anyway.

 

Or... it could be the effect of our som tam, or tom yum kung... ????

 

Who knows ?

You would of thought with that amount of people coming from Wuhan that it would be much wider prevalence already in Thailand, its 3-4 weeks later now. Sure the authorities cn try and cover up and smudge the figures but you simply cannot hide large large numbers of people

[Samuel Smith]

25 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

hahaha wouldn't that be great

 

the cure is to sit by the pool all day with a pina colada!

 

 

Well, they do say that alcohol kills the virus.  Cheers ????  

[christophe75]

1 hour ago, smutcakes said:

You would of thought with that amount of people coming from Wuhan that it would be much wider prevalence already in Thailand, its 3-4 weeks later now. Sure the authorities cn try and cover up and smudge the figures but you simply cannot hide large large numbers of people

 

Let's reverse your point.

 

What are the differences between Wuhan and Bangkok ?

 

None... Excepted the weather.

 

And... time. Wuhan started first.

 

Furthermore, if we look at other cities outside China (like Tokyo !), with the same weather than Wuhan, we see the same "low" numbers.

 

1 month ago... there were... 42 cases for the whole China...

 

Furthermore, we do know that the virus can stay long time without any symptoms or mild symptoms.

 

Last but not least, how do you make the difference between a simple cold and this virus ? At the beginning ?

 

Look at the numbers for the spanish flu... Huge number of people were infected... But they were ok (a simple cold).

 

Wuhan was "lost" when its health system was overloaded.... Too many "severe cases". Many of them could not be treated... Hence the casualties.

 

This "tipping point" takes time.

 

My point is : I understand your point... but it does not make any sense. The idea that the virus would thrive only in Wuhan or only in chinese cities... is absurd.

 

It was absurd in 1918 (the virus managed to jump almost everywhere in the world). In 2020, with all the airlines, the movements, and our big cities... it makes even less sense.

 

Of course, I do not say that what happened in Wuhan will happen in Bangkok (perhaps the virus has mutated or the temperature has disabled it)... but the idea that the only difference between Wuhan and Bangkok might be just... time... is still valid.

 

Officially the first cases were detected in Wuhan beginning of december (even the first of december... so the infection occured before)....

 

2 full months between those first cases... and the current disaster...

 

Did we had already 2 full months in Bangkok ?

 

Not yet.

Edited February 8, 2020 by christophe75

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 hours ago, khunpa said:

Current situation. Wonder why they stopped updating: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

 

 

The Thai Dept. of Disease Control has continued to update their daily situation report in TH language, with the latest being for yest. Feb. 7 at this point. But as you've noted, for some reason, they stopped producing the EN version of those after Feb. 5.  Maybe it's part of the minister's anti-farang tirade campaign.

 

Here's the latest TH report recap as of the end of Feb. 7. The upshot was:

 

--25 confirmed CV cases as of yesterday, updated today with 7 more for a total of 32.

--39 new cases yesterday of PUI - Patients Under Investigation (symptoms, but not confirmed CV)

--375 total PUI hospitalized as of yest., 357 in hospitals and 18 in isolation units.

--Of the original 25 confirmed cases, 10 had been released up thru yesterday. 

 

Via Google Translate:

 

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/file/situation/situation-no35-070263.pdf

 

Edited February 8, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[samuttodd]

Tell me that EMT's didn't offload sick people from the Boat in Jersey without masks and then go back home at the end of the day! All 4000 passengers released into the population and gone! Or should I say, Off to the races?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 hours ago, DLock said:

Thailand has 595 people under observation and 32 confirmed cases, a ratio of approximately 18:1.

 

Had, not has... The 595 PUI number was a cumulative number since the beginning, and all the folks who have been already released from the hospital along the way -- 279 out of 654 at last count -- don't ever get subtracted from the ongoing "PUI" number.

 

So, to me, the more meaningful indicator of the current burden on the TH healthcare system is the current number of PUI hospitalized, which was 375 as of yesterday -- a combination of the 25 then confirmed CV cases plus all the rest as possibles with symptoms.

 

[Timwin]

Wuhan's 7 crematoriums are running the ovens all the time 24/7, workload 4-5 times of that of normal day. Every available worker called to help, crews sleeping very little. Not looking good at all! 

 

https://www.theepochtimes.com/exclusive-funeral-homes-in-coronavirus-ground-zero-cremating-dozens-of-bodies-a-day_3228938.html

 

 

[smutcakes]

4 minutes ago, Timwin said:

Wuhan's 7 crematoriums are running the ovens all the time 24/7, workload 4-5 times of that of normal day. Every available worker called to help, crews sleeping very little. Not looking good at all! 

 

https://www.theepochtimes.com/exclusive-funeral-homes-in-coronavirus-ground-zero-cremating-dozens-of-bodies-a-day_3228938.html

 

 

anonymous sources, hidden identities, undercover reporters...........

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

AP just posted their update of CV cases by country, as follows:

 

https://apnews.com/9dc82b0198f2ff932071b80b70e16ad9

 

The latest figures reported by global health authorities as of Saturday in Beijing:

— China: 722 deaths and 34,546 confirmed cases on the mainland. In addition, Hong Kong has had 25 cases, including one death. Macao has had 10 cases. 

 

— Japan: 89

— Singapore: 33

— Thailand: 32

— South Korea: 24

— Taiwan: 16

— Malaysia: 16

— Australia: 14

— Germany: 14

— Vietnam: 13

— United States: 12. Separately, one U.S. citizen died in China.

— France: 11

— United Arab Emirates: 7

— Canada: 6

— Philippines: 3 cases, including 1 death

— United Kingdom: 3

— India: 3

— Italy: 3

— Britain: 3

— Russia: 2

— Belgium: 1

— Nepal: 1

— Sri Lanka: 1

— Sweden: 1

— Spain: 1

— Cambodia: 1

— Finland: 1

[ExpatLife]

1 hour ago, smutcakes said:

so 3 days ago they closed some crossings, kind of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. If what you said in your original post about Thailand having thousands of peple walking around infecting people, by the same token that would still be the case in loads of other major cities..

Thailand was the first to have a case outside of China, so there are ahead of other places in terms of time spent with the virus within their borders. They should have acted long ago when the first warning signs were obvious. It takes 2 weeks for people who are infected to become sick, and so we are still waiting globally speaking to see how much damage has been done, and is still being done. Couple that with dubious statistics from governments on infections and deaths, who knows how far it has already progressed at this point 

[MikeyScars]

12 minutes ago, ExpatLife said:

Thailand was the first to have a case outside of China, so there are ahead of other places in terms of time spent with the virus within their borders. They should have acted long ago when the first warning signs were obvious. It takes 2 weeks for people who are infected to become sick, and so we are still waiting globally speaking to see how much damage has been done, and is still being done. Couple that with dubious statistics from governments on infections and deaths, who knows how far it has already progressed at this point 

Found another article....https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/wuhan-virus-five-britons-french-ski-resort-coronavirus-singapore-12411224

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

17 minutes ago, MikeyScars said:

Found another article....https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/wuhan-virus-five-britons-french-ski-resort-coronavirus-singapore-12411224

 

What we're seeing from these various news reports on confirmed cases, not surprisingly, is that they're tending to flourish when a contagious person stays in close quarters with others... such as...

--this report about the ski lodge residents staying together.

--the BKK report of the taxi driver infected after handling Chinese travelers

--the huge Princess Cruises ship quarantined off Japan where now the confirmed CV count is up to 64, all just from being aboard that one ship.

 

[kuma]

13 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

What we're seeing from these various news reports on confirmed cases, not surprisingly, is that they're tending to flourish when a contagious person stays in close quarters with others... such as...

--this report about the ski lodge residents staying together.

--the BKK report of the taxi driver infected after handling Chinese travelers

--the huge Princess Cruises ship quarantined off Japan where now the confirmed CV count is up to 64, all just from being aboard that one ship.

 

Has anyone seen a specific update on the couple (Thai) that contracted the disease in Japan or on the flight back from Japan a few weeks back.

I have a flight booked from Tky to Bkk in the next 10 days and wondering if taking that is wise, or better to defer and see how this shakes out. 

I agree confined spaces is probably the worst scenario now, and what is more confined than a flying tin can? Then spit out into the madness that is Swampy, with 1000's of people flailing around - and having to wait for customs then baggage

Maybe the better plan is to change the date, any thoughts?

Cheers

[rabas]

Just when you thought you knew all the bad things about the virus, a hospital director is now saying that testing is not picking up all the cases.

 

Zhao Jianping, the director of Tongji Hospital of Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, said Friday that positive nucleic acid tests likely account for just 30-40% of all coronavirus cases, and that negative test results should not preclude the possibility of infection.

 

So, they will need to hospitalize everyone that has signs of pneumonia. That also means the non-nCoV2019 cases with likely get it.

http://www.sixthtone.com/news/1005112/coronavirus-latest-updates

 

as if contagion during incubation was not good enough.

Edited February 8, 2020 by rabas

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 minutes ago, rabas said:

Just when you thought you knew all the bad things about the virus, a hospital director is now saying that testing is not picking up all the cases.

 

Zhao Jianping, the director of Tongji Hospital of Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, said Friday that positive nucleic acid tests likely account for just 30-40% of all coronavirus cases, and that negative test results should not preclude the possibility of infection.

 

So, they have will need to hospitalize everyone that has signs of pneumonia. That also means the non-nCoV2019 cases with likely get it.

http://www.sixthtone.com/news/1005112/coronavirus-latest-updates

 

as if contagion during incubation was not good enough.

 

 

I think the medical folks involved have been saying for quite some time that the RT-PCR test works best when there's a substantial presence of virus in the body, and is much less effective at diagnosing when the virus/disease is in its early stages within a body.

 

Hence the prevailing trend to keep people who have been potentially exposed in some form of quarantine for two weeks or so.... so that if anything is going to happen, the indicators ought to start surfacing during that period.

 

 

 

Edited February 8, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[rabas]

7 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

I think the medical folks involved have been saying for quite some time that the RT-PCR test works best when there's a substantial presence of virus in the body, and is much less effective at diagnosing when the virus/disease is in its early stages within a body.

 

 

There is that.  But he is additionally talking about after developing a strong pneumonia response, it still fails. Thus the need to hospitalize even negative results. (from the same link)

 

“When the lymphocyte level in a patient's blood drops and pneumonia sets in, these patients must be treated under the assumption that they have the novel coronavirus,” Zhao said at a press conference. “Once these patients are admitted (to a hospital), they will not be overlooked because of a negative test.”

 

It is not a nice virus.

Edited February 8, 2020 by rabas

[Tayaout]

20 minutes ago, rabas said:

Just when you thought you knew all the bad things about the virus, a hospital director is now saying that testing is not picking up all the cases.

 

Zhao Jianping, the director of Tongji Hospital of Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, said Friday that positive nucleic acid tests likely account for just 30-40% of all coronavirus cases, and that negative test results should not preclude the possibility of infection.

 

So, they will need to hospitalize everyone that has signs of pneumonia. That also means the non-nCoV2019 cases with likely get it.

http://www.sixthtone.com/news/1005112/coronavirus-latest-updates

 

as if contagion during incubation was not good enough.

It has been known for several days already. This is why they have to do several tests on each cases. Sometimes like in Germany a patient tested positive again after recovery (and testing negative), and they think he was still contagious. 

Edited February 8, 2020 by Tayaout

[rabas]

15 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

It has been known for several days already. This is why they have to do several tests on each cases. Sometimes like in Germany a patient tested positive again after recovery (and testing negative), and they think he was still contagious. 

Yes, there have been reports all along about hard to detect cases. The medical announcement yesterday (Feb 7) was a new observation and presents further difficulties. That is even very sick people, who they had assumed would test correctly, are failing the tests often. 

 

That's what I mean, there's just nothing nice about this virus.

Edited February 8, 2020 by rabas

[MikeyScars]

11 minutes ago, rabas said:

Yes, there have been reports all along about hard to detect cases. The medical announcement yesterday (Feb 7) was a new observation and presents further difficulties. That is even very sick people, who they had assumed would test correctly, are failing the tests often. 

 

That's what I mean, there's just nothing nice about this virus.

 

Edited February 8, 2020 by MikeyScars