Thailand reports 32 new coronavirus cases, brings total to 114

[Forza2002]

Realistic numbers being published now that the govt. has convenient scapegoats what with the returnees from S.Korea and the dirty Farang tourists. They would never dare to name Chinese tourists, wouldn't want to upset their paymasters...

[Lodestone]

1 hour ago, Timwin said:

the coronaviruses in general are highly temperature sensitive. The best temperature zone for spreading is 6-12 Celsius and it is a steep looking curve. With 30 C the virus dies quite quickly in most surfaces, couple of hours instead of days.

 

What is your source/link for this?

[sapson]

2 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

It buggers sensiblilty to make people pay for the test when we are going into a pandemic.  Yet the government here expects people living hand to mouth to cough up 1000 baht. Morons ????

The test is free under the 30baht scheme for holders of a thai ID card really it should be freely available without cost to us all however that would result in a melt down of the Thai hospital system.

 

Was mention of a finger jab blood sample test kit developed with results in two hours, that was under 1000 baht , but if these kits become available likely they would vanish like the face masks and re surface at 3000 baht each in China.

Edited March 15, 2020 by sapson

[Timwin]

The simple fact is that R0 of this virus is a lot lower in hot&humid countries. That is why no mushrooming observed or at least it spreads much slower via indirect ways. That leaves mostly direct contact spreading. Hot season also came at a crucial time in Thailand.

[GroveHillWanderer]

41 minutes ago, Timwin said:

Both SARS and MERS were btw pretty much direct close contact based spreading viruses, where the outside temperature does not affect at all.

Again, this is not demonstrably true of MERS. According to the WHO fact sheet on MERS:

 

Quote

The MERS virus is transmitted primarily from animals to people, but transmission from people to people is also possible.

[...]

Scientific evidence suggests that people are infected through direct or indirect contact with infected dromedary camels. 

Camel herds are not kept indoors so the idea that most transmission occurs indoors where outside temperatures don't matter, doesn't seem to hold up. Also, even in one of the largest early clusters of MERS cases that occurred in Al-Hasa and which was initially thought to have been almost exclusively hospital-acquired infections, subsequent analysis of the genome structure of the virus in the different patients showed this not to be the case.

 

Source of MERS eludes scientists

Edited March 15, 2020 by GroveHillWanderer

[ParkerN]

Ah yes. The curve suddenly steepend, as many people thought it would. Time for the back-slapping about keeping the infection rates down to quieten down and give way to a strategic approach.

 

Except that there isn't one for Thailand because Thais know best and don't want to copy stuff from the wicked foreigners...

 

Perhaps it's fingers crossed time, right now, I'm not leaving the house these days unless there's a pretty good reason to do so - on the assumption (well-founded I believe), that this is going to get nasty - and may yet spell the end of Uncle Too.

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by ParkerN

[zydeco]

1 hour ago, Timwin said:

Thailand reported very early the first cases but did not see any mushrooming of cases. That is because the coronaviruses in general are highly temperature sensitive.

It's much hotter now than a month ago. And it is now that the numbers are going up. Seems as if it likes hot weather.

[ParkerN]

1 hour ago, zydeco said:

It's much hotter now than a month ago. And it is now that the numbers are going up. Seems as if it likes hot weather.

And yet, the most common assumption is that it doesn't, and the that infection rate will diminish as the temperature rises.

 

I suspect it's more than likely that sloppy accounting procedures and a deep desire to understate the extent of the problem until they can no longer do so are the more likely causes.

Edited March 15, 2020 by ParkerN

[Yadon Toploy]

1 hour ago, Timwin said:

Thailand reported very early the first cases but did not see any mushrooming of cases. That is because the coronaviruses in general are highly temperature sensitive. The best temperature zone for spreading is 6-12 Celsius and it is a steep looking curve. With 30 C the virus dies quite quickly in most surfaces, couple of hours instead of days.

 

ICUs would have been overflowing two weeks before Italy easily if the spreading were as effective as in Italy.

 

This does not mean you should not be cautious and wash your hands especially when coming from errands and not touching your face when outside. Also do not eat with your bare fingers. You can also buy very small hand spray disinfectant pocket sprays, costs like 150 Baht per 5-6 bottles in sites like Lazada.

You've posted this stuff on numerous threads without linking to any source? 

[rabas]

14 minutes ago, Timwin said:

The simple fact is that R0 of this virus is a lot lower in hot&humid countries. That is why no mushrooming observed or at least it spreads much slower via indirect ways. That leaves mostly direct contact spreading. Hot season also came at a crucial time in Thailand.

But spreading is a very complex phenomenon and R0 depends on many things that have nothing to do with the virus itself.

 

Please explain how your theories cause Thialand's flu season to be in the warm "summer" rainy season, coming up soon.

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by rabas

[Yadon Toploy]

1 hour ago, Swimfan said:

Some private hospitals are charging a months wage. 

That is disgusting. The hospital should be ashamed of themselves. 

 

In what way is that any better than charging 100thb for a mask of overcharging for a bottle of gel? 

 

Government are too cowardly to take on the family that owns the Bangkok hospital group no doubt. 

[Lodestone]

1 hour ago, Timwin said:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074131/coronavirus-highly-sensitive-high-temperatures-dont-bank-summer

 

It is sensitive to temperature. Otherwise Thailand with 10 million Chinese tourists per year, compared to 2 million in Italy, would have been much worse two weeks before Italy! The epidemic is much slower spreading in Thailand and that is very good news. 

 

I just read the scmp article you linked and did not see anywhere what you previously posted about the virus surviving on surfaces for limited hours above some temperature. What is your source/link for this? Thanks. 

[Timwin]

6 minutes ago, Lodestone said:

 

I just read the scmp article you linked and did not see anywhere what you previously posted about the virus surviving on surfaces for limited hours above

some temperature. What is your source/link for this? Thanks. 

Here are some findings:

 

https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/trends/novel-coronavirus-rising-temperatures-india-keep-deadly-virus-at-bay/story/396216.html

 

[DrTuner]

So they are finally testing for confirmations. We'll never get to know why it was delayed, but I have a hunch what most would guess. That delay will be costly but again, no heads will be on spikes. TiT, maibpenrai.

[Mavideol]

the doors were left open for too long, here are the results of such bad/greedy government decisions....

[morrobay]

1 hour ago, Timwin said:

 it spreads much slower via indirect ways. That leaves mostly direct contact spreading. Hot season also came at a crucial time in Thailand.

Indirect exposures probably do not result in many infections if any. Only direct contact can provide "the invading army of viruses in tens of thousands required to overcome a normal persons immune system" Wash. Post. There are degrees of exposure: Two young female Chinese doctors both were infected, but they both were treating infected patients for weeks. Now compare those multiple exposures to a surface exposure say a steel pole or railing on some public transportation that an infected person touched or coughed on. Sure there could be surface viruses but their infectivity decreases in hours and the numbers on this indirect surface exposure, from reports, wouldn't be likely to result In infections. I read that there has been no documented cases of surface infections. Having said that rubber gloves are in order. 

Edited March 15, 2020 by morrobay

[NCC1701A]

for those of you who think the milk comes from cows on the other side of the frig in the 7 eleven please understand this and don't say Thai companies don't do it:

 

The Purpose of JIT

Ordering inventory on an as-needed basis means that the company does not hold any safety stock, and it operates with continuously low inventory levels. This strategy helps companies lower their inventory carrying costs, increase efficiency, and decrease waste.

 

same same Thailand:

"The UK could stand "at most a week" of disruption if a natural or man-made disaster struck before severe problems, economic and social, that would bring chaos to the country, according to a new report from the international affairs thinktank Chatham House.

The authors blame a complacent reliance on the globalised economy and the widespread adoption of "just-in-time" business models that stress lean, ultra-efficient operations with little slack built in for any unforeseen circumstances or stock held in reserve."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jan/06/just-in-time-business-model-disaster-risk

 

 

 

[metempsychotic]

3 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

It buggers sensiblilty to make people pay for the test when we are going into a pandemic.  Yet the government here expects people living hand to mouth to cough up 1000 baht. Morons ????

A thousand baht? I would go for a voluntary test every time I sneezed at that price.

 

Sure you got your numbers right?

[Aforek]

2 hours ago, MikeN said:

Not that strange, cases are either imported from abroad by a few “dirty foreigners” or many Thais returning from overseas trips, or they have had contact with one of those groups. Either way, the vast majority of cases will be in Bangkok, that is where most flights from abroad arrive, and where they will be detected at the airport.

 How many people from Issaan make overseas trips compared to people from BKK ?

 Eventually there will be cases in the provinces when somebody in Bangkok infects a waitress or taxi driver before they realize they are contagious and then that waitress heads home to Issaan, possibly infecting more people on the bus, and her family, before she starts showing symptoms too.

You are right, here no tourists, problems can come if people from Bangkok come and visit their family here 

[NCC1701A]

oops.

 

anyway the unmentionable place is showing photos of Thai panic buying now. 

 

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on Sunday appealed for calm as escalating fears over Covid-19 are driving people to stockpile food and other daily necessities.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by NCC1701A

[GeorgeCross]

3 hours ago, Timwin said:

Thailand reported very early the first cases but did not see any mushrooming of cases. That is because the coronaviruses in general are highly temperature sensitive. The best temperature zone for spreading is 6-12 Celsius and it is a steep looking curve. With 30 C the virus dies quite quickly in most surfaces, couple of hours instead of days.

 

i would really like this to be true but looking at our closest neighbour Malaysia they are having real problems the last few days:

 

current 428 cases

new cases today 190

 

thats an outbreak in a hot tropical climate

sorry fella

 

 

[NCC1701A]

I strongly suggest that all farangs begin wearing a mask at all times while you are out to show support for the Thai people as they deal with the pandemic. 

 

no matter how you feel about the effectiveness wear the mask to show you are concerned and doing your part not to spread the virus.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mauGR1]

3 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

I strongly suggest that all farangs begin wearing a mask at all times while you are out to show support for the Thai people as they deal with the pandemic. 

 

no matter how you feel about the effectiveness wear the mask to show you are concerned and doing your part not to spread the virus.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good advice, i'll try to get some tomorrow.

[lamyai3]

3 hours ago, Matzzon said:

And above we can examine all the intelligent comments from TVF´s Infant Fart Brigade.

Given that it's been established that the virus is present in faecal matter, and that an anal swab is the preferred testing method, could the virus actually be spread if someone decides to "fart in your general direction"...?

[Yorkshire Tea]

11 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

I strongly suggest that all farangs begin wearing a mask at all times while you are out to show support for the Thai people as they deal with the pandemic. 

 

no matter how you feel about the effectiveness wear the mask to show you are concerned and doing your part not to spread the virus.

 

 

Very easy to do in Chiang Mai, thanks to the homegrown air pollution

[Monomial]

28 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

for those of you who think the milk comes from cows on the other side of the frig in the 7 eleven please understand this and don't say Thai companies don't do it:

 

The Purpose of JIT

Ordering inventory on an as-needed basis means that the company does not hold any safety stock, and it operates with continuously low inventory levels. This strategy helps companies lower their inventory carrying costs, increase efficiency, and decrease waste.

 

same same Thailand:

"The UK could stand "at most a week" of disruption if a natural or man-made disaster struck before severe problems, economic and social, that would bring chaos to the country, according to a new report from the international affairs thinktank Chatham House.

The authors blame a complacent reliance on the globalised economy and the widespread adoption of "just-in-time" business models that stress lean, ultra-efficient operations with little slack built in for any unforeseen circumstances or stock held in reserve."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jan/06/just-in-time-business-model-disaster-risk

 

 

 

 

Wait...are you telling me you think there are people who don't understand that resiliency and efficiency are opposites?  Of course the more efficient your business is the less resilient it is in a crisis. Every idiot knows that. They just don't care until there is a crisis. You can't be both resilient and efficient. This has been common knowledge for 50 years. The minute this crisis is passed though, stockholders will be clamoring for "more efficiency" and "greater profits". To hell with resiliency. That never made anyone money....This is one of the primary reasons why capitalism is a completely messed up way to run an economy.

 

 

[lamyai3]

2 hours ago, ChipButty said:

They could close down the whole bar scene 

It's being discussed tomorrow regarding entertainment venues. 

[lamyai3]

2 hours ago, Timwin said:

I provided the link in other post. It can survive as infectious pathogen in hot temperatures but the optimum is lower, 6-12 C temperatures. Both SARS and MERS were btw pretty much direct close contact based spreading viruses, where the outside temperature does not affect at all. In other words they could not spread nowhere near as effective as this one via indirect ways.

Yes, MERS was very easy to contain once identified and proper isolation measures were put in place. SARS lasted 6 months, but it took several of those months before it was identified as the cause of the illnesses. 

[time2093]

The Thai PM just said in a statement from Bangkok post that Nightlife stays open for business....Just heading to the bar.

[tgw]

what... only 51 waiting on test results?