Wuhan reports no new virus cases

[AussieBob18]

"Wuhan reports no new virus cases, offering hope to world.  Last month, Wuhan was overwhelmed with thousands of new cases of coronavirus each day. But in a dramatic development that underscores just how much the outbreak has pivoted toward Europe and the United States, Chinese authorities said Thursday that the city and it’s surrounding province had no new cases to report."

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/wuhan-reports-no-new-virus-cases-offering-hope-to-world/

 

Is this the beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning?  Hope it lasts. 

 

[leeneeds]

China did not report any new cases in Wuhan or Hubei province it did record eight additional deaths.

sadly for the 8.

[scubascuba3]

I find it strange that China seem to have a grip on this but Italy losing with a 43% death rate and Italy has the second best healthcare in the world

[PatOngo]

15 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

I find it strange that China seem to have a grip on this

Yes, the very bastion of integrity! ????

[jastheace]

15 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

I find it strange that China seem to have a grip on this but Italy losing with a 43% death rate and Italy has the second best healthcare in the world

 

and China has the best. not strange at all...

[scubascuba3]

24 minutes ago, jastheace said:

and China has the best. not strange at all...

Japan not China

[AussieBob18]

1 hour ago, scubascuba3 said:

I find it strange that China seem to have a grip on this but Italy losing with a 43% death rate and Italy has the second best healthcare in the world

The death rate is not 43% - that is a false assumption and wrong.  

2502 deaths from 31506 equates to 7.9%.

But that is also a false assumption - the 31506 are those very sick and tested - most people  get mild symptoms - some none.

 

China has 3231 deaths from 81116 and that equates to 3.9% - but that is also false assumption for same reasons.

 

It will only be when they test many people later and sample who has the specific antibodies to then be able to calculate the true infection rate and the true mortality rate.  Right now it is the sick and risky that are being tested - it is too early to state the death rate or infection rate. The indicators, based on past viral infections is that it is highly contagious and that the death rate (entire popluation) will be about 1%.  But no one knows for sure.  

 

What you are saying is that the death rate from driving on Thailand roads is 43%. You are only measuring those involved in serious accidents and taken to hospital.  The actual death rate is much much lower - but still way too high.

 

 

[scubascuba3]

10 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

The death rate is not 43% - that is a false assumption and wrong.  

2502 deaths from 31506 equates to 7.9%.

But that is also a false assumption - the 31506 are those very sick and tested - most people  get mild symptoms - some none.

 

China has 3231 deaths from 81116 and that equates to 3.9% - but that is also false assumption for same reasons.

 

It will only be when they test many people later and sample who has the specific antibodies to then be able to calculate the true infection rate and the true mortality rate.  Right now it is the sick and risky that are being tested - it is too early to state the death rate or infection rate. The indicators, based on past viral infections is that it is highly contagious and that the death rate (entire popluation) will be about 1%.  But no one knows for sure.  

 

What you are saying is that the death rate from driving on Thailand roads is 43%. You are only measuring those involved in serious accidents and taken to hospital.  The actual death rate is much much lower - but still way too high.

 

 

It's the death rate of those diagnosed with Corona and there's been an outcome. Of course not everyone has been diagnosed, lots untested or asymptomatic, but the high rates across the countries highlights how dangerous it can be particularly when ICUs run out.

 

For those who still think it's just flu maybe they will wakeup

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Edited March 19, 2020 by scubascuba3

[Chrysaora]

Yeah, trustworthy country that China.  YOU WILL BELIEVE IT.  

 

Or

 

ELSE

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, scubascuba3 said:

I find it strange that China seem to have a grip on this but Italy losing with a 43% death rate and Italy has the second best healthcare in the world

If you look at the essentials, things does not seem so strange. See list below

 

As you clearly can see, Italy is not on the list of top 40. Meaning that it doesn´t mean anything to have the best healthcare in the world if you lack the ability to rapid response. 

 

[rvaviator]

1 hour ago, scubascuba3 said:

I find it strange that China seem to have a grip on this but Italy losing with a 43% death rate and Italy has the second best healthcare in the world

No good having the best health care in the world if to many all get sick at the same time ... That is the problem. Health care is just like any 'factory' .. it has a 'capacity to produce health care' ....  Ask for to much ... and the best factory in the world can not produce . It has to ramp up, train more staff ... employ new people .. get more equipment etc ....

[scubascuba3]

3 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

If you look at the essentials, things does not seem so strange. See list below

 

As you clearly can see, Italy is not on the list of top 40. Meaning that it doesn´t mean anything to have the best healthcare in the world if you lack the ability to rapid response. 

 

Hopefully there is a link but that data looks questionable, US is second, I've read their response was slow. France is also struggling and they are 13th

[Matzzon]

23 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Hopefully there is a link but that data looks questionable, US is second, I've read their response was slow. France is also struggling and they are 13th

Oh yes! Sure it´s questionable data. Probably just because they tell another story then yours. My data is backed up of a Report made by John Hopkins Institute and Bloomberg School of Public Health. At the same time they used facts and statistics provided by: Open Philanthropy Project, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation as well as Robertson Foundation.

 

Here is the link to the full report: https://www.ghsindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019-Global-Health-Security-Index.pdf

Have fun! Happy to reply to more questionable data you might think I provide. 

Edited March 20, 2020 by Matzzon

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

so what is it, a traveling virus?

he finished with wuhan now he moved to milano?

too many strange things with this virus.

a bio-weapon lab just near the market where it all started, 

than thousands of dead and blood coughing people, and now

it is all finished in one day, and oh, by the way, some chinese sceintists

who happan to leave somewhere around that lab, now claim they found a vaccine

and want to register a patent in the US.

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

1 hour ago, AussieBob18 said:

The death rate is not 43% - that is a false assumption and wrong.  

2502 deaths from 31506 equates to 7.9%.

But that is also a false assumption - the 31506 are those very sick and tested - most people  get mild symptoms - some none.

 

China has 3231 deaths from 81116 and that equates to 3.9% - but that is also false assumption for same reasons.

 

It will only be when they test many people later and sample who has the specific antibodies to then be able to calculate the true infection rate and the true mortality rate.  Right now it is the sick and risky that are being tested - it is too early to state the death rate or infection rate. The indicators, based on past viral infections is that it is highly contagious and that the death rate (entire popluation) will be about 1%.  But no one knows for sure.  

 

What you are saying is that the death rate from driving on Thailand roads is 43%. You are only measuring those involved in serious accidents and taken to hospital.  The actual death rate is much much lower - but still way too high.

 

 

MAYBE ITALY's mistake is to impose a siege on it's citizens?

maybe the english way - of exposing the population to the virus so they will develope

a "herd immune" is the right way?

holland and sweden are also not imposing total lockout and they are much better than italy.

[cleopatra2]

3 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

I find it strange that China seem to have a grip on this but Italy losing with a 43% death rate and Italy has the second best healthcare in the world

The Chinese built an hospital for the specific purpose of treating covid 19 patients.

[AussieBob18]

5 hours ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

MAYBE ITALY's mistake is to impose a siege on it's citizens?

maybe the english way - of exposing the population to the virus so they will develope

a "herd immune" is the right way?

holland and sweden are also not imposing total lockout and they are much better than italy.

I read that Italy's main problem is that they live very 'communily' like in China with lots of old people living with their younger relatives and friends - and those that caught it quickly spread it to others. Plus the population of Italy is very old (compared to other countries) and they have a very high rate of smokers and drinkers - both men and women.  All of those factors together created a perfect storm for the virus.  Believe it or not, one the reasons the older generations are 'separated' from the younger generations in many societies, is because they get very sick and/or die when they catch things that the younger generations easily recover from - and children are constantly getting things as their bodies build up their immunities.  Locking older people away with their younger relatives and friends in Italy was probably not a good idea in hindsight. 

 

 

[KhunBENQ]

6 hours ago, Chrysaora said:

Yeah, trustworthy country that China.  YOU WILL BELIEVE IT.  

 

Or

 

ELSE

Cover up, lying, silently distributing the virus to the world for weeks.

But now they have changed and we can believe them.

They are so nice now and even send doctors/specialists to Italy.

<end of cynicism>

[Sheryl]

There is not a 43% death rate in Italy or anything like it.

 

in Italy so far the case fatality rate is 8.3% -- which is indeed very high compared to elsewhere but nowhere near w43%.

 

The mistake prior poster made was using as denominator only "closed cases" and not all confirmed cases.

 

A disproportionate number of deaths are always in the "closed case" catogory, as It is very difficult to make it into the "closed case" category without dying. In all countries numbers listed as recovered are low, this is due to difficulty ascertaining that a person is now completely free of infection. It requires many repeat tests of an extended time and this is  fairly low priority compared to the testing of suspected cases.

 

As to what is going on in Italy: the epicenter is an area with unusually large % of elderly people, for one. Also possible that the viral loads are unusually high due to exposure to unusually large amount of virus, as also seemed to be the case in the Wuhan market area. People may have been exposed more than once to more than one source. With most infectious diseases, severity is closely linked with the degree of innoculation.

 

Pretty much everywhere, the denominator of total infected cases is too low, as asymptomatic people usually get tested only when they are known contacts of an identified case (if then). Possible  that this underestimation is particularly great in northern Italy (as it may also have been in Wuhan). We will eventually know this but it will come only after the urgent phase is over and there is time for large scale representative sampling of antibody levels.