Thailand reports 50 new coronavirus infections for total of 322

[Nicebus]

Settle please.

No new cases in China today.

Its just the flu <deleted> !!!!

If you are reasonably fit and healthy you might get it.

Cough and splutter for a week then all better.

If you are old with pre existing conditions it might hit you harder.

But thats the way the flu cycle works every year.

Media got a lot to answer for in the wash up of this hysteria.

 

[SaamBaht]

Getting as many people as possible tested would greatly increase safety for those NOT infected. South Korea is going this route to great success without oppressive lock down measure like China. 

[Sheryl]

19 minutes ago, jacob29 said:

I personally feel the 200k tests performed by South Korea says otherwise. There is no huge asymptomatic population in South Korea or they would have seen signs of it, and the mortality rate there is still uncomfortably high at 1%.

 

 

0.77% mortality

 

And they found many asymptomatic cases especially among younger people

[Chicken Man]

7 hours ago, Traubert said:

The Chinese are foreigners in Thailand. Everybody else except Thais are foreigners in Thailand, honestly.

Exactly, and just about every other country pointed a finger overseas as the first cases were detected. If you want to look for an example, just look at Trump who calls it the China Virus. I wonder how welcome the chinese living in USA feel right now. 

[joecoolfrog]

6 hours ago, robblok said:

No they are doing not.. but this way still it keeps infections Thai on Thai lower. They really dont want to go stage 3. 

Up to them !

The longer they delay , the worst it will get and the repurcussions greater.

[rabas]

1 hour ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

You can use smaller villages that were hit by the virus where the transmission was widespread as statistical pools to estimate mortality.  There are of course 2 strains of the virus (I think S and L with L having a higher transmission rate and higher mortality rate; while S is the one that mostly transmitted internationally; L was most common in Wuhan).

This is mostly what I understand up to which subtype spread outside of China. From what I gathered, it was mostly type L particularly in Europe while the US west coast was a mixture.

 

Why do I think that? Nextstrain.com has a analysis of the spread (phylogenetic tree) colour coded and linked to a map. Linking the colours to the information in the original report goes this way:

 

Type S originated in Wuhan before Chinese New year and spread throughout China. Later the more aggressive Type L emerged in Wuhan. Most of China is type S (yellow on the map) and Wuhan is 70% type L (grey, blue) and 30% S (yellow). From this you can see most of Europe and part of US has been hit by type L, San Francisco is mostly S.

 

Also note that South Korea and Japan have a lot of the milder type S, possibly consistent with the lower fatalities rates. 

Edited March 20, 2020 by rabas

[Timwin]

It is quite impossible to lockdown everything without really bad financial consequences. So many people rely on selling food from his motorbike or food stands or selling other stuff in market squares.   

[Cheesekraft]

if one person is infecting 41 people in a single boxing stadium, isn't that some evidence it is airborne? What is this direct-contact exposure only nonsense I keep hearing?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

This info should have been posted here...not separately... But at any event:

 

 

Quote

 

Meanwhile, the Disease Control Department today disclosed a map showing the progress of the COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand, up to yesterday (Thursday). It reveals that the contagion has now spread to 23 provinces, with most cases in Bangkok.

 

• Bangkok 213 cases in 15 districts
• Samut Prakan 12 cases in 4 districts
• Chiang Mai 7 cases in 2 districts
• Pattani 6 cases in 2 districts
• Chon Buri 5 cases in 2 districts
• Phuket 5 cases in 1 district
• Yala 3 cases in 2 districts
• Nakhon Ratchasima 2 cases in 1 district
• Narathiwat 2 cases in 1 district
• Pathum Thani 2 cases in 1 district
• Prachuap Khiri Khan 2 cases in 1 district
• One case each in Phetchabun, Krabi, Kalasin, Nakhon Pathom, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Nonthaburi, Roi-et, Saraburi, Sukhothai, Suphan Buri and Surat Thani.

 

 

 

[Tingnongnoi]

8 minutes ago, Cheesekraft said:

if one person is infecting 41 people in a single boxing stadium, isn't that some evidence it is airborne? What is this direct-contact exposure only nonsense I keep hearing?

No guarantee it was just that one night for a start. There was a big show at the other stadium the day before and ive seen one of the infected post a video where he says he came into direct contact with someone that also has it at the show the day before and thinks he could have got it then. Several of the gamblers that got it are from the same group as well and quite possibly passed it on to each other after the show or before while eating or drinking together. Also the shows at the other stadium went on right up to I think the 12th so could be multiple opportunities to spread.

[rabas]

15 minutes ago, Cheesekraft said:

if one person is infecting 41 people in a single boxing stadium, isn't that some evidence it is airborne? What is this direct-contact exposure only nonsense I keep hearing?

Apparently it is but that doesn't mean it caused the spread in the stadium. WHO has just issued "airborne precautions" but also stressed this mostly applys to medical staff, not a reason for public alarm. Most things are a bit airborne, they just don't say it without proof. 

 

US NIH research leading to WHO recommendations

WHO airborne recommendations

 

[joecoolfrog]

28 minutes ago, Timwin said:

It is quite impossible to lockdown everything without really bad financial consequences. So many people rely on selling food from his motorbike or food stands or selling other stuff in market squares.   

This is true but overly simplistic.

The Pandemic will cause financial hardship in any case , so may as well try to keep the fatalities as low as possible dont you think ?

[Almer]

Anybody making stupid jokey comments about this pandemic i can only is doing it from fear of the unknown,  if you wish to know how bad this situation is go onto the Sky news app they sent a reporter to Italy to Lombardi the epicentre who witnessed and reported rows and rows corridors and corridors wards and wards of people just like you and me gasping for breath inside breathing aids similar to a head bubble, do you comedian wannabes think you will get that level of care in the Los, read the report and then post some meaningful and helpful comment.

[Almer]

8 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

This is true but overly simplistic.

The Pandemic will cause financial hardship in any case , so may as well try to keep the fatalities as low as possible dont you think ?

Agreed

[jacob29]

1 hour ago, Sheryl said:

0.77% mortality

 

And they found many asymptomatic cases especially among younger people

There are 94 deaths and 8600 confirmed cases (which is leveling out, <100 cases yesterday). That puts the death rate above 1%, with some room to grow given deaths are a lagging indicator. In any case, the difference between 0.77%, or 1% is negligible.

 

When I say asymptomatic cases, I should have been clear in that I meant undiscovered asymptomatic cases. South Korea has been testing aggressively enough, there's little chance there's a mass of asymptomatic cases they missed. The case counts couldn't be leveling off if there were a bunch of asymptomatic carriers re-infecting the population.

[geriatrickid]

6 hours ago, Timwin said:

Very slowly spreading. This confirms the hot&humid&uv protects from wildfire like spreading. It will spread but not like in northern Italy. Good news for all retirees. Protect yourself and avoid large, tightly packed crowds. 

You are very wrong. Hot and humid protects  nothing. Direct intense heat will desicate a virus, but some remain potent for hours. Extreme cold will inhibit transmission, in the open.

Northern Italy's experience is a reflection of the failure to initiate social distancing a month ago. Thailand has not initiated effective social distancing and will pay the price of the poor judgement too.

[jacob29]

1 minute ago, geriatrickid said:

You are very wrong. Hot and humid protects  nothing.

This is neither proven, nor disproven. It's a hypothesis, that has weak evidence in the fact that destinations receiving plane loads of tourists from Wuhan haven't seen Italy like outcomes.

[Sheryl]

10 minutes ago, jacob29 said:

 The case counts couldn't be leveling off if there were a bunch of asymptomatic carriers re-infecting the population.

 

it could if a critical mass of the population had been infected without knowing it.

[DavisH]

8 hours ago, DLock said:

Where are the bodies?

 

Worldwide, the mortality rate is 10,048 / 245,912 = 4.08%

 

Sure, there are likely many more infections that would reduce the real mortality....

 

But technically, of the 245,912 only 88,465 have recovered, so looking from a binary perspective, the mortality rate is 10,048 / 88,465 = 11.3%...as until the "Active Cases" die or recover, they can't be counted...

 

...so, Thailand should have around 12 bodies (Philippines has 17 dead on 217 case)...

Each country is different. I would venture than a higher proportion of younger people are being infected (many are sourced from the Lumpini and other entertainment venues). That is the current situation, but the death rate will probably increase as the infected spread the virus to their parents/grandparents. This seems to be what is happening in Italy that has 20% of their polulation over 65 y.o. Now more are dying due to a lack of equipment due to the huge number of patients. 

[bkkcanuck8]

1 hour ago, Cheesekraft said:

if one person is infecting 41 people in a single boxing stadium, isn't that some evidence it is airborne? What is this direct-contact exposure only nonsense I keep hearing?

Packed stadium, going to get some refreshment, returning, can easily infect 41 people through fomite (surface contact).

[jacob29]

2 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

it could if a critical mass of the population had been infected without knowing it.

Doesn't seem plausible to me, in that they tested 200k (finding 9k infections), and somehow missed a cluster of asymptomatic carriers that managed to evade all contact tracing efforts. It would mean out of that entire hidden cluster, none were serious enough to warrant testing, and additionally none had any contact with confirmed cases (that would have prompted testing). It would be very hard for a virus to remain undetected under those conditions.

[Skallywag]

1 hour ago, charlie farnsbarns said:

Susceptibility to viruses is Nature's way of keeping populations in check. Humans have clearly overstepped the mark and this is the price. Perhaps we should stop whining, let the virus do its job, and learn the lessons.

 

Actually, this mini-apocalypse actually gives me some hope there might be a restart along more sensible lines - a lifeline for humanity that no one had ever envisaged even a few months ago. If the virus is quashed too easily though it will only breed more human complacency and we will be back to the addiction for growth.

I say let it run, and if the reaper comes for me, well, I will hold out my hand.

Appreciate the darwinian undertones.

Agree human population numbers and our habits have increasingly damaged "Nature".  Air pollution levels lower in China as people are quarantined and cannot drive, take a bus, or train. 

Heard that canal and river waterways in Italy are clearer, etc..

Edited March 20, 2020 by Skallywag

[kensisaket]

9 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

Of course. No Thai would ever infect another Thai.

 

I cannot even begin to describe how disgusting I find this official xenophobic finger-pointing at "foreigners". 

We're waiting to test your theory about no Thai would infect another Thai here in Issan. With the bars/clubs shut down in Pattaya and Bangkok all those "working girls" will be heading home. A pretty sure bet more than one of them will bring that virus to their families and villages.

[SiSePuede419]

The State Department is planning to tell all Americans abroad to either come home soon or prepare to shelter in place, and to tell the ones already in the United States to avoid international travel of any kind.

 

I was trying to tell my wife to stock up on essentials like hand sanitizer, masks, milk, diapers etc before the panic buying starts. ????????????????????

[pookondee]

4 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

50-60 out of a population of close to 69 million. Total cases 322 out of a population of close to 69 million. I fancy my chances of not catching it. How about you?

yes only 50-60, but that is just in one day.

And how many did they infect before getting diagnosed ?

And how many of those newly infected will go and infect others before they realise they have got it? 

 

Seriously, do people really need to be explained the meaning of 

"snowball effect"

[bkkcanuck8]

2 minutes ago, jacob29 said:

Doesn't seem plausible to me, in that they tested 200k (finding 9k infections), and somehow missed a cluster of asymptomatic carriers that managed to evade all contact tracing efforts. It would mean out of that entire hidden cluster, none were serious enough to warrant testing, and additionally none had any contact with confirmed cases (that would have prompted testing). It would be very hard for a virus to remain undetected under those conditions.

Testing costs money and provides nothing important for treatment.  Testing generally is only available if you meet preconditions requiring testing... if there is no recognition of local transmission (which the government has on many occasions indicated)... then there will be no testing done.  In Washington State it was likely in the wild unknown for 4 weeks (based on genetic testing of known cases - sort of genetic genealogy for virus).  In 4 weeks, a h3ll of a lot of people can be infected (and likely were).  Without testing the cases would be classified as something other than COVID (flu season) which would only show up statistically after the fact or when your healthcare system hit capacity.  Testing (active cases) for pandemic management... and the filters often miss vast swaths of cases until the filter is changed due to reality.  Foreigners showing up at hospitals (private) and paying out of pocket would be picked up more likely due to the hospital upselling them on useless tests when it comes to treatment. 

 

I doubt Thailand is doing widespread testing because they don't see it as necessary and the government does not want to pay for unnecessary things. 

 

Even in Canada where the Prime Minister's wife tested positive, the doctors indicated the Prime Minister need not be tested because it would provide no useful information - just sent home to self-quarantine.  This would be the standard practice where tests are not deemed necessary.  So yes, before testing is deemed necessary you can have a dramatic increase in cases (exponential growth).  If left unchecked with no intervention the doubling rate would have everyone on the earth infected in less than six months... so one month of no testing is still going to be a reasonably large sample.

[Skallywag]

45 minutes ago, Almer said:

i can only is doing it from fear of the unknown,  if you wish to know how bad this situation is go onto the Sky news app they sent a reporter to Italy to Lombardi the epicentre who witnessed and reported rows and rows corridors and corridors wards and wards of people just like you and me gasping for breath inside breathing aids similar to a head bubble, do you comedian wannabes think you will get that level of care in the Los

Italy has been hit hard with many infections, very devastating.   

 

The problem many countries will face is the number of ventilators and beds available for the severe cases and the elderly if they develop pneumonia.  POTUS and crew discussed plans to buy or manufacture 10's of thousands of ventilators to prepare.   Here in LOS doubt there are more than a few hundred ventilators total in BKK area hospitals

 

Have met with several doctors and received treatments and diagnosis in several private hospitals in BKK.  Felt treated well and received good care most times - Mai pen rai 

 

Health and Peace 

 

[bkkcanuck8]

1 minute ago, Skallywag said:

Italy has been hit hard with many infections, very devastating.   

 

The problem many countries will face is the number of ventilators and beds available for the severe cases and the elderly if they develop pneumonia.  POTUS and crew discussed plans to buy or manufacture 10's of thousands of ventilators to prepare.   Here in LOS doubt there are more than a few hundred ventilators total in BKK area hospitals

 

Have met with several doctors and received treatments and diagnosis in several private hospitals in BKK.  Felt treated well and received good care most times - Mai pen rai 

 

Health and Peace 

 

Can probably get them from China now... for a new high speed train route guarantee ????

[CGW]

43 minutes ago, pookondee said:

Seriously, do people really need to be explained the meaning of 

"snowball effect"

If the snowball effect is so extreme, people in close proximity are obviously at the highest risk, what is the situation in Thai prisons, if this "effect" is so strong there should be total decimation at this point in time?

[pookondee]

22 minutes ago, CGW said:

If the snowball effect is so extreme, people in close proximity are obviously at the highest risk, what is the situation in Thai prisons, if this "effect" is so strong there should be total decimation at this point in time?

Apparently other countries are addressing that already, and are talking about pardons for minor offenders and allowing more home detention.

 

As far as Thai prisons go, i can only surmise they are lucky to not have much exposure to infected persons as yet?

 

Many prisoners would not be in the best of health to start with, so you would think they are at a high risk of getting wiped out should outbreaks occur.

 

And would we even hear about it?

Thailands idea of "duty of care" to prisoners is hardly like the 3 star treatment they get back in the west.