WARNING: Covid-19 infections ‘could escalate to thousands unless social-distancing measure is strictly followed’

[webfact]

WARNING: Covid-19 infections ‘could escalate to thousands unless social-distancing measure is strictly followed’

By The Nation

 

Supakit Sirilak

 

The number of those who will become infected with Covid-19 could soon escalate to thousands if people don’t strictly follow the social-distancing measure, a top government official warned today (March 23).

 

Public Health Ministry deputy permanent secretary Supakit Sirilak showed a graph representing the tendency of Covid-19 infections and said Thailand is already in the “golden period” of infections since the country now has 721 cases.

 

“When the number of those infected reaches 100, the infection rate will escalate quickly,” he said, warning: “We will face the same situation as Europe, which has been hit by thousands of infections within a short period of time if we don’t follow the measure very strictly.”

 

Supakit also said an example of a similar situation can be seen in Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30384659

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-03-23

Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

 

 

[wasabi]

I believe it is already too late. While we should all try to avoid catching it with basic sanitary measures and avoiding groups at this point herd immunity is the only way I see the numbers coming down.

 

There is a good and bad side to Mai Bphen Rai. Clearly this is the bad side but I don't think even this virus will change "Don't think too much" attitudes.

Edited March 23, 2020 by wasabi

[ukrules]

Locking down towns and cities apart from delivery drivers is the only way they will contain it if they even bother.

 

The mass movement of 1000's people all over the country from the Bangkok 'hotspot' on long bus journeys over the weekend has ensured that this virus will spread all over the country into every town and village.

 

In fact if you wanted to deliberately spread it everywhere across the country the actions that happened over this weekend would be a very effective way to do it.

Edited March 23, 2020 by ukrules

[AhFarangJa]

I sense a country wide lockdown coming soon.

[Orton Rd]

Lined up in Big C today for face masks they were all keeping a social distance from each other in the queue- about three inches away from each other, I hung at the back.

[dcsw53]

The government cannot even put it's own house in order.
On Friday Pattaya Immigration again rammed full of people, pushing and shoving. Seats crammed shoulder to shoulder. It was the same at Bangkok Bank around the corner where it was standing room only, no testing on entry. Where were the controls when they needed ?
For once don't just talk about it, action speaks louder than words. Although I fear it will be shutting the door after the horse has bolted.

[Yadon Toploy]

Last night the local market was mobbed. Ideal conditions for the virus to spread and proliferate among hundreds of the general public. 

 

It's going to get very messy fairly soon. 

[Assurancetourix]

23 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Locking down towns and cities apart from delivery drivers is the only way they will contain it if they even bother.

 

The only real way to contain it is the one that South Korea has used;
no confinement, the country continued to live normally.
on the other hand the authorities made test the whole of the population from the beginning of the arrival of Covid-19 in the country.
As a result, only the positives infected were isolated and now the country is out of danger.
This is also what two countries in Europe are currently doing: the Netherlands and Switzerland.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Assurancetourix

[tifino]

in the meantime local LOS people will want to Distance themselves from what Kuhn Official and what he has just said...

[DrTuner]

It's already in the thousands, 3886 pending results and that's just in the group that fit in the very restrictive PUI admittance criteria. Thais will not follow anything unless army is deployed to enforce. Lock it all down now.

 

BTW that chart he's holding looks eerily familiar... https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Edited March 23, 2020 by DrTuner

[dinsdale]

1 hour ago, wasabi said:

I believe it is already too late. While we should all try to avoid catching it with basic sanitary measures and avoiding groups at this point herd immunity is the only way I see the numbers coming down.

 

There is a good and bad side to Mai Bphen Rai. Clearly this is the bad side but I don't think even this virus will change "Don't think too much" attitudes.

Do you know what herd immunity is? You'd be looking for around 80% being infected (for this virus) and as it stands today there's about a 13% death rate. At as guess you're saying that around 8 or 9 thousand people have to die here before things get better.

[Logosone]

2 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Do you know what herd immunity is? You'd be looking for around 80% being infected (for this virus) and as it stands today there's about a 13% death rate. At as guess you're saying that around 8 or 9 thousand people have to die here before things get better.

A 13% death rate? On what planet would this be?

 

Not planet earth, I assure you.

[dinsdale]

Just now, Logosone said:

A 13% death rate? On what planet would this be?

 

Not planet earth, I assure you.

Coronavirus Cases:

339,009

view by country

Deaths:

14,689

Recovered:

99,011

CLOSED CASES

113,700

Cases which had an outcome:

99,011 (87%)

Recovered / Discharged

14,689 (13%)

Deaths

[Kadilo]

Many Thais have no idea what Social DIstancing is, those that do mainly are ignoring it as it is not being enforced. 
 

Even Boris is struggling getting the Brits to follow it. Over here it’s just not part of their culture. The time it takes to change that t will all be over. 

[Logosone]

4 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Coronavirus Cases:

339,009

view by country

Deaths:

14,689

Recovered:

99,011

CLOSED CASES

113,700

Cases which had an outcome:

99,011 (87%)

Recovered / Discharged

14,689 (13%)

Deaths

Yah, that's a common mistake. 

 

You only take identified cases and then set the death figure against those.

 

However, the UK chief medical adviser Sir Patrick Vallance has disclosed that the actual number of cases is ten or twenty times higher than the number of identified cases.

[wasabi]

17 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Do you know what herd immunity is? You'd be looking for around 80% being infected (for this virus) and as it stands today there's about a 13% death rate. At as guess you're saying that around 8 or 9 thousand people have to die here before things get better.

 

I do and am not saying herd immunity is my preference. I am saying it's what's likely to happen since we are dealing with mob behavior. Herd immunity is the most catastrophic way to get through a pandemic but I will be surprised if the massive cultural and economic shifts required to get Thai's to sit at home sheltering in place are effective. I believe most of us will catch this virus in Thailand in the major cities. Hopefully the symptoms are mild but of course in some cases they won't be. I do still plan to try to avoid it but have somewhat resigned myself to catching it at some point. Plenty of pain ahead. I pray I am wrong though.

Edited March 23, 2020 by wasabi

[dinsdale]

2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yah, that's a common mistake. 

 

You only take identified cases and then set the death figure against those.

 

However, the UK chief medical adviser Sir Patrick Vallance has disclosed that the actual number of cases is ten or twenty times higher than the number of identified cases.

Yes. I was replying to ...

 11 minutes ago, Logosone said:

A 13% death rate? On what planet would this be?

 

Not planet earth, I assure you.

Seems to think 13% is somehow not possible.I agree with you. T is more than likely understated.

[smedly]

8 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yah, that's a common mistake. 

 

You only take identified cases and then set the death figure against those.

 

However, the UK chief medical adviser Sir Patrick Vallance has disclosed that the actual number of cases is ten or twenty times higher than the number of identified cases.

anywhere near 3% is extremely bad 

 

look up COVID-19 compared to Spanish Flu

 

Estimates put SF at a mortality rate of just over 1% and deaths estimated between 50-100million people

[Logosone]

I use the figures from Sir Patrick Vallance, increasing case numbers by 10 or 20 times.

 

Using that magic formula suddenly the death rate looks a lot more digestible.

[dinsdale]

10 minutes ago, wasabi said:

 

I do and am not saying herd immunity is my preference. I am saying it's what's likely to happen since we are dealing with mob behavior. Herd immunity is the most catastrophic way to get through a pandemic but I will be surprised if the massive cultural and economic shifts required to get Thai's to sit at home sheltering in place are effective. I believe most of us will catch this virus in Thailand in the major cities. Hopefully the symptoms are mild but of course in some cases they won't be. I do still plan to try to avoid it but have somewhat resigned myself to catching it at some point. Plenty of pain ahead. I pray I am wrong though.

Social distancing. Isolate youself as much as poss. Lots of handwashing with soap (20 sec) wear a mask (I wear a mask and also wear safety glasses when going out) stay away from crowds etc. Sorry to tell you that praying won't help. Out of Aust. Someone had a dinner party. Not sure how many people but one went there with and 10 left with it.

Edited March 23, 2020 by dinsdale

[Puchaiyank]

Suspect 10s of thousands of Thais are already infected with the virus...not enough testing to gage the true picture.

 

Older ex-pats should hunker-down...require your family members to strictly adhere to social-distancing and avoiding unnecessary shopping and travel...

[brain150]

The number will go in the millions !

But not because so many are sick ... rather of the way they test it !

 

... it is so easy to fool perception.

[Boomer6969]

2 hours ago, dinsdale said:

At as guess you're saying that around 8 or 9 thousand people have to die here before things get better.

In the case of Thailand it will be 5 at best, probably 6, digit figures. Feel free to get back to me in 6 weeks.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Boomer6969

[dinsdale]

7 minutes ago, Boomer6969 said:

In the case of Thailand it will be 5 at best, probably 6, digit figures. Feel free to get back to me in 6 weeks.

We may never know. Don't test, don't tell. Deaths? We'll see a huge spike in viral pneumonia mortality not related to Covid19. Lots of them I expect. Remember this country is still run by a junta, just in disguise.

Just heard that mortality rate in Indonesia is 9% but this is thought to be under-reported. Couple of weeks ago, maybe 3 they said they had no cases. Now 579 with 49 dead.  Thailand 721 cases with 1 dead.

Edited March 23, 2020 by dinsdale

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

WARNING: Covid-19 infections ‘could escalate to thousands unless social-distancing measure is strictly followed’

I think Mo-Chit terminal just made an infringement!

[Chazar]

3 hours ago, dinsdale said:

a 13% death rate

really? 

[cnx355]

3 hours ago, Assurancetourix said:

 

The only real way to contain it is the one that South Korea has used;
no confinement, the country continued to live normally.
on the other hand the authorities made test the whole of the population from the beginning of the arrival of Covid-19 in the country.
As a result, only the positives infected were isolated and now the country is out of danger.
This is also what two countries in Europe are currently doing: the Netherlands and Switzerland.

I heard that too about Holland. Infection rate and death similar but the peak goes up fast and Holland is already having less infection daily . One way or another the flu has to go around all countries. Fast or slow. 

[NightSky]

I just got back from post office in BKK thinking everywhere would be quiet -- its busier on the roads, post office and supermarket than ever before..

 

A 20 something girl stood about 4 feet from me in the post office without a face mask and coughed in my direction without covering her mouth..

 

I can foresee an absolute disaster heading this way. 

 

Hardly anyone seems to give a hoot about social distancing!

[NightSky]

asking most Thais to take things seriously..

 

may as well be doing this...

 

[law ling]

Well, at Jomtien immigration today I waited outside in a snakeing queue of 200-300 people for a little over an hour before getting into the building. The clueless IO was telling people to bunch up further, to reduce the queue's length.

 

Once inside, it was packed and standing room only - so too many people were being let in at once - again clueless organisation.

 

In short, the Thai Police either don't understand, or choose not to follow, best-practice as regards distancing and crowds.