U.S. could be next 'virus epicentre', global recession looms

[Brickbat]

All World Leaders SERIOUS about this tragedy....EXCEPT THE Clown in the White House . All he cares about is his RE-election. Americans who voted for him , aren’t you ashamed ? 

[bristolboy]

1 minute ago, Brickbat said:

All World Leaders SERIOUS about this tragedy....EXCEPT THE Clown in the White House . All he cares about is his RE-election. Americans who voted for him , aren’t you ashamed ? 

Not quite.

As Bolsonaro flouts warnings, coronavirus spreads in Brazil

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-bolsonaro-i/as-bolsonaro-flouts-warnings-coronavirus-spreads-in-brazil-idUSKBN21B1AX

 

The Most Irresponsible President on the Continent Right Now Isn’t Donald Trump

https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/03/amlo-trump-coronavirus-dios-mio/

[newnative]

2 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I know it was hard for a long time for many Americans to live with such an incompetent president. But now it really matters. We can be sure that Trump will make anything wrong that can possibly go wrong.

Slowly I understand why they always ask god for help. Because even if the chance that god exist is minimal. It's still higher than the chance that Trump will manage this crisis.

Good luck to you. You need it!

So true!  What a terrible time for America to have as President such a lying, selfish, incompetent idiot with the attention span of a 2 year-old.  It's easy to see he is already bored with the virus and wants to get back to making himself and his cronies even richer.

[Cryingdick]

16 minutes ago, unsubscribe said:

 

this will also fix our social security problem ????

 

As long as they are not able to increase SS.  But yeah I am tired of old, selfish, white men at this point.

[lannarebirth]

9 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Whom do you mean by "they"?

 

Sorry, the government. Our leadership.

[bristolboy]

10 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

 

Sorry, the government. Our leadership.

Funny, because the Democrats had to compromise to get more support for the unemployed and lower income people. Imagine what they could have gotten if the Republicans weren't in the way.

[lannarebirth]

2 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Funny, because the Democrats had to compromise to get more support for the unemployed and lower income people. Imagine what they could have gotten if the Republicans weren't in the way.

I think too may items were under consideration by both sides. I think both sides had enough data and there was enough urgency to send a clean Bill to the president to send out $1,000 to every adult and $500 to every child. They could then have spent more time attacking the pork each side presented and decide the proper amount of assistance the business sector might require in a seperate Bill.

[bristolboy]

Just now, lannarebirth said:

I think too may items were under consideration by both sides. I think both sides had enough data and there was enough urgency to send a clean Bill to the president to send out $1,000 to every adult and $500 to every child. They could then have spent more time attacking the pork each side presented and decide the proper amount of assistance the business sector might require in a seperate Bill.

 And the Democrats hugely increasing the amount that the unemployed will be getting is not a matter of great urgency? Seems a lot more urgent than giving money to those who still have jobs.

[lannarebirth]

1 minute ago, bristolboy said:

 And the Democrats hugely increasing the amount that the unemployed will be getting is not a matter of great urgency? Seems a lot more urgent than giving money to those who still have jobs.

I'm not arguing against that but if that arrives a week later after some intermediate relief for everyone has already been received I think that's ok.

[bristolboy]

8 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

I think too may items were under consideration by both sides. I think both sides had enough data and there was enough urgency to send a clean Bill to the president to send out $1,000 to every adult and $500 to every child. They could then have spent more time attacking the pork each side presented and decide the proper amount of assistance the business sector might require in a seperate Bill.

And if the incredibly generous corporate bailout arrives a week late, that's okay too?

[lannarebirth]

Just now, bristolboy said:

And if the incredibly generous corporate bailout arrives a week late, that's okay too?

 

I didn't say that. In fact once you get some immediate relief outin a smaller, clean Bill  the Democrats could have taken a much harder line IMO. It was the linkage and lack of breathing room that allowed for the corporate largesse. They had a gun to their heads. Not that there aren't plenty of Democrats that aren't sympathetic to Wall Street too.

[spidermike007]

The US will be the next epicenter. Not could be. Will be. The infections are up to 10,000 new cases a day. America already blew right past Spain, and currently has almost 54,000 cases. They should pass China within a week. My estimate is they will eventually quadruple the number of cases in China. I just hope the death toll is not too high. This could have been prevented. The Trump travel ban on China was imposed on Feb. 2nd. It still allowed all Americans and green card holders to go back and forth. Not smart. And it is estimated that over 300,000 were allowed in from China during the month of January, well after the NSA advised the administration that an epidemic was starting in Wuhan.

 

There is no question about a global recession. US economic numbers could drop by 12-25% fiscal 2020. Thailand tourism may drop by 80% this year. Not the inane 20% the TAT is yakking about. My hope is that we can avoid a global depression from this. This is unprecedented stuff. When the shutdown ends, how do you re-start the economy? How do you bring back those 16 million restaurant workers in the US? Where do they go back to? Will the people begin eating out again? Will they go back to the movies? Will they start traveling again? Will Thai tourism ever bounce back to it's former levels? I do not think so. 

 

The US administration has downplayed this, every step of the way, until finally admitting it is a real issue. Remember, just a few weeks ago Corona was a democratic hoax. 

Edited March 25, 2020 by spidermike007

[RocketDog]

4 hours ago, leeneeds said:

Last week 1 trillion, the fall out is still growing and will do so until the curve of rate of infection reverses being they are weeks behind China on infection rates, the cash amount needed could double again.

The gold held in Fort Knox currently is around 6-6.5 billion dollars 

how the false economy survives after the pandemic will be a game changer for the US.

 

I think it only fair to edit your post to state that you actually have no hard data on Fort Knox holdings, but are making an educated guess. Otherwise you are leaving yourself open to some rather harsh responses.

 

It is a fact that virtually no country on the planet publishes their true precious metal holdings (only questionable details of their trading) or where they are located. This is true for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that if their citizens realize how much gold they are buying and holding, it might cause a significant uptick in the price, making it more expensive to buy. Governments, principally the USA, have maintained a relentless propaganda campaign against gold to discourage people from buying it. It may soon become apparent to many that precious metals are and always have been an important asset class, principally as a hedge against fiat currency explosions/implosions.

 

China, on the other hand, has for many years encouraged private ownership among its citizens, but with the ulterior motive of being able to use nationalistic fervor arguments as a way to entice citizens to surrender their metals should the CCP ever need them. Pretty clever, no? At the same time that the CCP is buying entire mines or mining shares in foreign countries and importing the production there are strict laws forbidding the transport of gold (except jewelry) out of China. China always takes the long view.

 

Actually, in my opinion, (I've been wrong more times in my life than I care to recall) the current medical panic over the virus will soon be recognized as fairly minor compared to the global economic disaster impending.

 

Either way, this crisis will be a 'game changer' for every country on the planet and will define our lives for decades to come. Nothing can, or should, ever be the same again.

 

Making predictions of any sort these days is likely only an interesting past time.

 

Stay agile, stay informed, stay skeptical, stay safe, stay indoors.

 

 

[Rimmer]

Some troll and off topic stuff removed also replies:

 

U.S. could be next 'virus epicentre', global recession looms

 

[phantomfiddler]

4 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I know it was hard for a long time for many Americans to live with such an incompetent president. But now it really matters. We can be sure that Trump will make anything wrong that can possibly go wrong.

Slowly I understand why they always ask god for help. Because even if the chance that god exist is minimal. It's still higher than the chance that Trump will manage this crisis.

Good luck to you. You need it!

There are other things out there besides Trump, and believe it or not, he was not responsible for all this ????

[RocketDog]

4 hours ago, bristolboy said:

Do you understand that the United States has effectively been off the gold standard since the early 1930's and absolutely and definitively since sometime in the Nixon Presidency? So all the development and wealth created since then is unreal because it's not tied to a beautiful yellow metal?

Quite true, in 1971 Nixon reneged on the US promise made to the world in the Breton-Woods agreement. He essentially pulled the economic rug out from under the idea of tangibly-backed currency for the whole globe.

The US dollar has ever since been backed only by 'the full faith' of the USA government. If that doesn't make you cringe nothing will. As far as I know, there is no country that supports their currency with gold.

 

Tighten your seat belts folks. And if you don't own metals it might be a good time to rethink your position.

 

For those who have metals, it may be time to ponder where you might deploy potential gains to retire fixed dollar investments such as mortgages. It seems plausible that the incipient tsunami of paper wealth being frenetically spawned with fervor around the world could soon devalue that very 'wealth'. It's certainly happened before.

[RocketDog]

3 hours ago, bristolboy said:

Yes, oddly enough the US rate of inflation has continued to be very low despite the big rise in debt in the wake of the Great Recession.

precisely why the strength of the dollar is so critical now. One slip in faith and it could come crashing down. Even if the debt itself may not be the deciding factor, the fool managing it now may well be. We are well past the time when the world has realized the an evil clown is running America. Hell, even the Americans themselves may be grasping this.

 

Even a stone dead drunk can swagger, stagger, and spout ignorant nonsense for a time, but eventually he swoons and crashes unconscious to the pavement in his own vomit.

 

Witness the levitating US stock market the last few years. One can't fool all the people all of the time.

[OneMoreFarang]

40 minutes ago, phantomfiddler said:

There are other things out there besides Trump, and believe it or not, he was not responsible for all this ????

Good luck that he can't change everything. Otherwise I am sure he would find more opportunities to <deleted>$% things up.

[RocketDog]

3 hours ago, Airalee said:

Another thing to take into consideration in recent times is the derivatives market.

 

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052715/how-big-derivatives-market.asp

Derivatives. Somebody called them "instruments of mass financial destruction". And now the banks are/will peddle even more of them. 

[bristolboy]

2 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

 

I didn't say that. In fact once you get some immediate relief outin a smaller, clean Bill  the Democrats could have taken a much harder line IMO. It was the linkage and lack of breathing room that allowed for the corporate largesse. They had a gun to their heads. Not that there aren't plenty of Democrats that aren't sympathetic to Wall Street too.

A much harder line? And what leverage would the democrata have had to get that clean bill? You don't think that Republicans were determined to bail out big corporations and such? That it wasn't their top priority?

[lannarebirth]

6 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

A much harder line? And what leverage would the democrata have had to get that clean bill? You don't think that Republicans were determined to bail out big corporations and such? That it wasn't their top priority?

I think that's exactly what they were looking for. I assume the Democrats loaded up their own wish list with so much junk so they could sacrifice it later in order to get the Republicans to temper their no oversight corporate welfare. That's what Congress used to do. Throw stuff out till you hammer out something neither side is completely happy with but each could sign.  I think it was about Clinton's presidency where they found consensus by agreeing to accept the other side's <deleted> if they'll accept yours.

[bristolboy]

21 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

I think that's exactly what they were looking for. I assume the Democrats loaded up their own wish list with so much junk so they could sacrifice it later in order to get the Republicans to temper their no oversight corporate welfare. That's what Congress used to do. Throw stuff out till you hammer out something neither side is completely happy with but each could sign.  I think it was about Clinton's presidency where they found consensus by agreeing to accept the other side's <deleted> if they'll accept yours.

REally? You think this tactic began in the Clinton era? Because before that negotiators were too clueless?

And the junk the democrats loaded up their bill with was far less costly than the republican junk. And far less nasty too. Apparently, the Republicans wanted to deny funds to any business that depended on Medicaid. And this during a pandemic!

[Neeranam]

I've seen reports calling the recession "the corona recession".

 

Don't be fooled, this recession was coming for many obvious reason.

 

 

[lannarebirth]

13 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

REally? You think this tactic began in the Clinton era? Because before that negotiators were too clueless?

And the junk the democrats loaded up their bill with was far less costly than the republican junk. And far less nasty too. Apparently, the Republicans wanted to deny funds to any business that depended on Medicaid. And this during a pandemic!

Why do you think I'm defending Republicans? Both sides loaded up the bill with a bunch of <deleted> that had to get thrown out. You seem to read my posts so you'd know I was not in favor of all this corporate giveaways. 

[soalbundy]

9 hours ago, leeneeds said:

Last week 1 trillion, the fall out is still growing and will do so until the curve of rate of infection reverses being they are weeks behind China on infection rates, the cash amount needed could double again.

The gold held in Fort Knox currently is around 6-6.5 billion dollars 

how the false economy survives after the pandemic will be a game changer for the US.

 

Just hire some more McDonalds workers, they'll be fine.

[sirineou]

6 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

The US will be the next epicenter. Not could be. Will be. The infections are up to 10,000 new cases a day. America already blew right past Spain, and currently has almost 54,000 cases. They should pass China within a week. My estimate is they will eventually quadruple the number of cases in China. I just hope the death toll is not too high. This could have been prevented. The Trump travel ban on China was imposed on Feb. 2nd. It still allowed all Americans and green card holders to go back and forth. Not smart. And it is estimated that over 300,000 were allowed in from China during the month of January, well after the NSA advised the administration that an epidemic was starting in Wuhan.

 

There is no question about a global recession. US economic numbers could drop by 12-25% fiscal 2020. Thailand tourism may drop by 80% this year. Not the inane 20% the TAT is yakking about. My hope is that we can avoid a global depression from this. This is unprecedented stuff. When the shutdown ends, how do you re-start the economy? How do you bring back those 16 million restaurant workers in the US? Where do they go back to? Will the people begin eating out again? Will they go back to the movies? Will they start traveling again? Will Thai tourism ever bounce back to it's former levels? I do not think so. 

 

The US administration has downplayed this, every step of the way, until finally admitting it is a real issue. Remember, just a few weeks ago Corona was a democratic hoax. 

I am sure you know this, but I am repeating it because I just had first hand experience.

The reported case are only a function of the testing kits of which none or very few are available.

My sisters daughter (love her to death, like a daughter to me) located in NYC, started feeling sick three days ago, Tired, sore throat, pain in her lungs. She tried to get help on the phone for hours with no success. And she is well informed as she is a professional, and my  sister is Also  a registered nurse and an upper level manager for a National home care organization.

Trying to impress that these people are much better connected than the average Joe. 

  Anyway Yesterday she developed a fever also and went to the emergency at the local hospital.  She said it was a zoo and felt bad because there were so many people there much worse than her. After several hours there they took an x ray, told her that she did not have pneumonia yet , but did not test her for the virus because they did not have enough test kits. Send her home and told her to keep trying the number.

It is very frustrating because both my sister and me are stuck in Florida and all we can do is call on the phone. 

  That's all I know, I did not want to press my sister for more info as she was very upset , 6 am here , can't sleep, being up since 4 am, I will call my sister later today to find out how Nataly is doing. 

VERY FEW PEOPLE ARE BEING TESTED. (sorry for the caps) No one has any idea how many people are infected. Personally I think the test kits are delayed on purpose to artificially keep the numbers down.  

[Skeptic7]

12 hours ago, leeneeds said:

Last week 1 trillion, the fall out is still growing and will do so until the curve of rate of infection reverses being they are weeks behind China on infection rates, the cash amount needed could double again.

The gold held in Fort Knox currently is around 6-6.5 billion dollars 

how the false economy survives after the pandemic will be a game changer for the US.

 

We all better hope the so-called (your words) "false economy" survives...'cuz if it doesn't, it will be a game changer for the entire world, NOT just the USA. 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Skeptic7

[RocketDog]

4 hours ago, Neeranam said:

I've seen reports calling the recession "the corona recession".

 

Don't be fooled, this recession was coming for many obvious reason.

 

 

What is/was/has been obvious to some for literally years is just now becoming news to more every day.

 

Many are as shaken by the virus as by the utter failure of government to meet the crisis as well as a lack of reform in political systems that has allowed minority groups to co-opt power.

 

Ironically that is precisely what could trigger a global financial avalanche: loss of faith in government, banks, and debt-backed currency.

 

For decades now we've been told how strong the world economy is and how stable our governing process is and how debt has no meaning. Even as the adjusted income has gradually fallen for most of the working population, government has grown increasingly burdensome and unresponsive to its citizens, and the middle class has unraveled, we've been lulled into complacency. 

 

Our system is fragile and interdependence between governments, supply chains, and banking systems has made the entire world vulnerable to just such a black swan event as this. 

 

This situation did not emerge fully grown in the last three months and it certainly won't be resolved in the next three regardless of the course of a virus. 

[Logosone]

9 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

Always the right question to ask in America. What's clear is they had no interest in following the Danish model, which IMO is just what they should have done.

 

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/denmark-has-a-message-for-america-do-more-fast/608629/

 

America should have no interest to follow the 'Danish model'. Denmark is a tiny country with a tiny population. Danish solutions would not be possible to implement in a real country like the USA.

 

All these people who go on about 'adopt the Singapore', the 'Danish', the 'Swedish', the 'Dutch' model fail to understand that it is not possible to do so in real countries with populations that dwarf those places.

Edited March 25, 2020 by Logosone

[Logosone]

7 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

There is no question about a global recession. US economic numbers could drop by 12-25% fiscal 2020. Thailand tourism may drop by 80% this year. Not the inane 20% the TAT is yakking about. My hope is that we can avoid a global depression from this. This is unprecedented stuff. When the shutdown ends, how do you re-start the economy? How do you bring back those 16 million restaurant workers in the US? Where do they go back to? Will the people begin eating out again? Will they go back to the movies? Will they start traveling again? Will Thai tourism ever bounce back to it's former levels? I do not think so. 

 

The US administration has downplayed this, every step of the way, until finally admitting it is a real issue. Remember, just a few weeks ago Corona was a democratic hoax. 

Actually after the Spanish flu in 1918 the Dow Jones gained 50% in a short period, the roaring 1920s were a golden age of economic development.

 

Just like people had sex and one-night stands after Aids people will start eating out again, will go travelling again. Because there is an economic imperative. The big countries will not let their airlines fail, and those airlines need to make money, so they will push for air travel and make it attractive. Tourism bounced backed in Thailand even after the Tsunami.

 

There have been a few hiccups in the US response, particularly the CDC's failure to design working tests in time, however, the US has a history of taking time to get into gear. It is a very large country. It was the same in WWII, however, if the US decides to get serious its resources dwarf those of any other nation. Therefore, it has good chances to overcome this period in reasonable shape. What's more, the US have some of the finest doctors in the world.