Thailand’s COVID-19 cases might reach 3,000 by end of April

[Unify]

1) People that don't understand math shouldn't be in positions like this.

2) they're still not testing a lot of people, I'm sure there are more than 3,000 already.

[DrTuner]

46 minutes ago, Boomer6969 said:

This isn't exponential either, it is a simple ax² function. Exponential would be a^x. We'd be dead soon. 

High school 6 maths were I come from. But that was 50 years ago as far as I am concerned.

The models are a bit more complex than that. Feel free to play around with this one, the SEIR model: http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

[padgebkk]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

COVID-19 infections will increase to about 3,000 by the end of April

I think there he's confused his months. The way everyone in Bangkok scattered throughout Thailand from the bus stations last week, I believe he means 3,000 by the end of March

[ian007]

3000 only????? That would be amazing. My bet is it will be between 10,000 and 20,000

[tandor]

6 hours ago, flyingtlger said:

Wishful thinking....There'll be a lot more than 3000.

 

 

...i agree..what a clever klutz he is, being able to multiply 30 x 100 and get 3,000..but he forgot to add on the 1,000..and then they probably left of two more zeroes at the end.

[tomster]

16 minutes ago, SymS said:

Just a few days ago, almost nobody wore masks in my area, but this morning I went to the market, and everybody was wearing a mask, so hopefully it can be somewhat contained.

It doesn't need to be contained, it needs to be carefully monitored for mutations and allowed to spread to people that won't die to allow them get immunity, in the same way that most other viruses that we get every year do. When RO1 is reached (infects less than one person per infected person), it will start to go away.

 

Keeping older and vulnerable people locked up at times of serious flu outbreaks is good practice and common sense as there isn't a vaccine yet - there is no need to crash economies and lock populations down unless the virus could wipe out loads of people that wouldn't be dyng anyway.

 

This virus is clearly not that serious - the ridiculous 3.4% mortality rate from the WHO is fiction, more and more data now says it's less than 1%, probably way less:

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

 

 

[milesinnz]

you may be assured that the system used to report COVID-19, will be a system inverse to the system used to report tourist numbers..

[Guderian]

The effect of Thailand's heat and humidity on transmission of the virus, together with the partial lockdown which was enacted relatively early compared with western countries (and which will be extended to a full one, if need be), should prevent us from becoming another Spain or Italy. Just how bad it will get, though, before things start to improve is anybody's guess. Let's hope it peaks soon and things can start getting back to normal in a month or so.

[ChipButty]

4 hours ago, PatOngo said:

Thailand’s COVID-19 cases might reach 3,000 by end of April

I trust TAT will be handling the books!

Are they using the same calculator?

[jasonsamui55]

21 minutes ago, ian007 said:

3000 only????? That would be amazing. My bet is it will be between 10,000 and 20,000

Is there any betting sites where we can place such bets? I'd like to see what the market makers would say. I'd place a bet too!

[Peung]

One reason that infection rates in Thailand and other SE Asian countries may turn out to be lower than in some other countries may be cultural. E.O.Wilson would argue that cultural traits such as wai-ing, not touching of heads, limited physical contact in public, removal of shoes when entering houses, frequent bathing etc, that we see throughout Thailand and the neighbouring countries may have been selected for at the community level, through the viral epidemics that have been routinely emerging in SE Asia and Southern China for 1,000's of years. 

[phantomfiddler]

One would expect that the infection rate would be exponential, but I would think that the important thing is to realize it is just a flu, basically ! In previous years, at a certain time of the year, a flu would sweep through Pattaya and many people would catch it, myself included. As soon as it was down the throat and into the lungs I would be off to the pharmacy to get some antibiotics, which did work but took around 5 days. Last time it went through, I decided to try something different. A half a lemon, skin and all (VERY important, it,s all in the skin !) in a blender until completely mashed, pour into large glass, add honey to make it palatable (it,s revolting otherwise), top up with hot water, and the results were amazing. Much better and more effective than taking any pills ????

[ChipButty]

21 minutes ago, tomster said:

Keeping older and vulnerable people locked up

 

 

My wife has been trying to keep me locked up for years, didnt work

[FarFlungFalang]

25 minutes ago, tomster said:

the ridiculous 3.4% mortality rate from the WHO is fiction,

"Criminal intent" would be the phrase I would use.

[SuperTed]

3 hours ago, Timwin said:

 

Tropical weather is lowering the R0 a lot. Otherwise Thailand with 5 times more Chinese tourists than Italy per year would have been a lot worse a month ago already. Coronavirus family seasonality:

 

 

 

coronaviruses.jfif 40.14 kB · 17 downloads

This is the only poster I have seen so far who has a clear idea of the science behind the outbreak. Thank you, and please keep speaking up! Misinformation and anxiety do almost as much damage to society as the illness itself.

[Skallywag]

10 minutes ago, phantomfiddler said:

but I would think that the important thing is to realize it is just a flu

Unfortunately Covid19 is not like other flus

More contagious, especially from asymptomatic people

Long recovery period, hospital stay averages 10 days, normal flus 3-4 day average

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/815408287/how-the-novel-coronavirus-and-the-flu-are-alike-and-different

Edited March 27, 2020 by Skallywag

[FarFlungFalang]

5 minutes ago, steven100 said:

This virus can kill you within days :

More clarification is needed,within days of what?Being infected?Or within days of reaching the point of near death?Are there and examples of this happening that you could post?

[steven100]

6 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

More clarification is needed,within days of what?Being infected?Or within days of reaching the point of near death?Are there and examples of this happening that you could post?

After becoming infected ...

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-video-reveals-lung-damage-in-covid-19-patient-asymptomatic/bd1b803c-a006-4b4d-ae0d-3eeae230af38

[pacovl46]

If the numbers double every 4 days like they have been in Germany, it’s gonna be 256000 by the end of April. 

Edited March 27, 2020 by pacovl46

[WalkingOrders]

Even if this prediction proves low, the Thai numbers are very good. So far so good. Reporting from Bangkok with a population similiar in size to NYC but doing far better.

[WalkingOrders]

Just now, pacovl46 said:

If the numbers double every 4 days like they do in Germany, it’s gonna be 256000 by the end of April. 

But they aren't 

[PatOngo]

22 minutes ago, ChipButty said:

Are they using the same calculator?

Yes, it has no batteries! 

[pacovl46]

2 minutes ago, WalkingOrders said:

But they aren't 

Well, Germany started out very slow, too, but over the past two weeks we went from 1200 to 44000. Thailand won’t be different. They’re at 1045 right now. Check back in 4 days.

[kwak250]

I'm not a betting man (due to laws in Thailand)

But I would take over 3000 by end of April 2/1

[Saint Nick]

33 minutes ago, Guderian said:

The effect of Thailand's heat and humidity on transmission of the virus, together with the partial lockdown which was enacted relatively early compared with western countries (and which will be extended to a full one, if need be), should prevent us from becoming another Spain or Italy. Just how bad it will get, though, before things start to improve is anybody's guess. Let's hope it peaks soon and things can start getting back to normal in a month or so.

Yeah...right!

Wanna bet?

[mberbae]

Try the end of March. No April Fool's Joke either.

I went to Bangkok for Christmas and New years.

It was wall to wall Chinese.  Wuhan HAD the virus

by then...but were keeping it secret. Thus, tens of

thousands of Chinese came to Thailand on holiday.

 

[Saint Nick]

34 minutes ago, Peung said:

One reason that infection rates in Thailand and other SE Asian countries may turn out to be lower than in some other countries may be cultural. E.O.Wilson would argue that cultural traits such as wai-ing, not touching of heads, limited physical contact in public, removal of shoes when entering houses, frequent bathing etc, that we see throughout Thailand and the neighbouring countries may have been selected for at the community level, through the viral epidemics that have been routinely emerging in SE Asia and Southern China for 1,000's of years. 

...and how about the "cultural tradition" of not planning ahead, boozing and eating togther, often using the fingers to pass out ice cubes and food, to almost never use hot water to clean ANYTHING, to not to respond to suggestions, to never learn, to sit together at for any given reasons, as long as there is some "sanook" to be found...?

[Elzear]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

If the new infection rate averages 100 per day, and the public cooperates fully with the Government’s preventive directives, by staying at home and observing social distancing, he predicted that, by the end of April, total infections will be about 3,000.

IF.. just went for a drive in my town of Sa Kaeo.. None of the above applies. And I mean none of the above, food courts included ! One thing that my gf told me though was that the Government told people to shut up or face consequences.. So I say, bravo Prayut .. because by shutting up, people will not breathe in and out the nasty viral droplets. That's the way to go, General, what next ? 

As for the 3000 infected, it is irrelevant. What is relevant will be number of deaths. 

None planned in Sa Kaeo where life goes on as usual. 

[Tchooptip]

He forgot a zero????

And all the better if I have it all wrong!

[Peterphuket]

3 hours ago, ouredd said:

But they can count money

Ha, ha, ha, only with a calculator.