Thailand’s COVID-19 cases might reach 3,000 by end of April

[Saint Nick]

3 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

This is about reducing the number of deaths.Why is the fight to reduce the number of fatalities of the virus not applied to the fight to reduce the number of road fatalities?If the main concern is to reduce fatalities and taking up valuable health resources why are the two fights so out of whack in regards to the effort to save lives and to reduce the strain on health services? 

Because

they are

2

completely

different

things!

 

[Alidiver]

What I don't understand is that other countries have cases that increase logarithmically whereas in Thailand it is linear.
Any suggestions?

[Jimbo2014]

So many unreported cases at present including us.  Likely to be 3000 already.

[OldPedro]

I suspect the total is many times 3000 already, given the confusion and lack of credibility of those attempting to run (ruin ?) the country.....

[monkfish]

18 minutes ago, metempsychotic said:

And yet another poster unable to grasp one simple distinction:

 

It is not the flu.

 

Not sure why that is so very difdicult to grasp.

 

Reading the posts here it seems distancing at least allows us to avoid the hysterical and paranoid in person, though sadly they all seem to feel the need to vent their panic online here.

Nope just saying the hot weather didn't stop the spread of Influenza in 1919 not sure why people think it will stop COVID19 is there any evidence that's the case? Hystria's not needed but we have to take it very seriously to beat it.

Edited March 27, 2020 by monkfish

[DavisH]

4 hours ago, Destiny1990 said:

Their deaths numbers don't seem to be matching.

Many countries are like this - The main people infected in South Korea are young - less than 30 or so. They also tested a lot of people, so the death percentage is lower. The majority of Italians are older, and they also ignored warnings at the start. It's also likely an artefact of testing. There is still a controlled amount of testing in Thailand, so low level infections are likely to be more widespread. Only vulnerable groups are being tested at the moment, unless you want to pay for the test yourself. 

[Odisan]

When the government dictate what you must do, what news is disseminated, and also control what you can or can't say in response, then anything they put out must be taken with just the correct sized pinch of salt.

[VintageTQ]

3 hours ago, TheAppletons said:

18 March - 212 cases

 

21 March - 411 cases

 

24 March - 824 cases 

 

Confirmed cases have been doubling every three days.  Does that look to you like tropical weather is lowering the R0?

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no75-180363.pdf

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no78-210363.pdf

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no81-240363.pdf

 

27 March - 1136 cases

 

Kind of blows your theory out of the water !!!

 

Anyone with an ounce of common sense can see that this virus does NOT spread as easily in hot and humid climates, otherwise Thailand would have been in the situation Italy is now in about 6 weeks ago.

 

Early scientific research is finding this to be the case....

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/24/warm-humid-weather-coronavirus/

 

 

 

 

[Sheryl]

34 minutes ago, Alidiver said:

What I don't understand is that other countries have cases that increase logarithmically whereas in Thailand it is linear.
Any suggestions?

 

1. Until recently it was still containment phase and they were in fact doing a pretty good job of tracking contacts of known cases and people with known exposure. This has changed some what now and will likely change even more over the coming weeks due to the  uncontrolled mass exodus from Bangkok.

 

2. Except for those who can afford to pay private hospital prices, access to testing is still very limited.

 

3.  Heat, sunlight and (Bangkok excepted) low population density all help slow spread.  Pretty much opposite of conditions in New York, for example.

 

4. It appears (not sure, but seems, at least so far) that severity both here and in mainland SE Asia in general, is generally low. Lower viral innoculations (see #3 above) and comparatively young demographic are likely factors.  Combine with very strict criteria for testing, lower severity  means an even greater proportion of cases will go undetected than is the case elsewhere.  

 

But all that aside, al countries start out looking pretty linear, differences between linear and exponential growth become very noticeable only at higher caseloads.

 

It is true that modeling done by some experts based just on arrivals from China during the outbreak there suggest that the disease ought to have been spreading widely throughout SE Asia for the past 2 months. Even allowing for a slowed rate of spread due to heat, sunlight and comparatively low density (most places), there still ought to be cases in the  5 digits at least by now.

 

Possible  that there are and these are so mild that they go undetected. That is not necessarily a bad thing...if the virus can spread through the population without many severe cases that will produce immunity without overwhelming the health system.

 

I think the big question is whether the Bangkok exodus will significantly ramp up infections in the elderly (since people often went home to parents/grand-parents) and leading to an increased number of more severe cases.

 

[VintageTQ]

38 minutes ago, monkfish said:

Nope just saying the hot weather didn't stop the spread of Influenza in 1919 not sure why people think it will stop COVID19 is there any evidence that's the case? Hystria's not needed but we have to take it very seriously to beat it.

It wont stop it;s spread , but it WILL slow it

[Ireland32]

8 hours ago, flyingtlger said:

Wishful thinking....There'll be a lot more than 3000.

 

 

After that lab test if letting everybody leave BKK and pattaya

[WalkingOrders]

1 hour ago, pacovl46 said:

Well, Germany started out very slow, too, but over the past two weeks we went from 1200 to 44000. Thailand won’t be different. They’re at 1045 right now. Check back in 4 days.

Thailand's rate of growth is definately, factually, NOT, a mirror of the rate of growth of other countries, nor are other countries growth rates mirroring each other. So explain to me why Thailand must mirror Germany?

[gamesgplayemail]

one more time Thailand will be so lucky if not having more than 10000 dead...

 

 

[gamesgplayemail]

25 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

1. Until recently it was still containment phase and they were in fact doing a pretty good job of tracking contacts of known cases and people with known exposure. This has changed some what now and will likely change even more over the coming weeks due to the  uncontrolled mass exodus from Bangkok.

 

2. Except for those who can afford to pay private hospital prices, access to testing is still very limited.

 

3.  Heat, sunlight and (Bangkok excepted) low population density all help slow spread.  Pretty much opposite of conditions in New York, for example.

 

4. It appears (not sure, but seems, at least so far) that severity both here and in mainland SE Asia in general, is generally low. Lower viral innoculations (see #3 above) and comparatively young demographic are likely factors.  Combine with very strict criteria for testing, lower severity  means an even greater proportion of cases will go undetected than is the case elsewhere.  

 

But all that aside, al countries start out looking pretty linear, differences between linear and exponential growth become very noticeable only at higher caseloads.

 

It is true that modeling done by some experts based just on arrivals from China during the outbreak there suggest that the disease ought to have been spreading widely throughout SE Asia for the past 2 months. Even allowing for a slowed rate of spread due to heat, sunlight and comparatively low density (most places), there still ought to be cases in the  5 digits at least by now.

 

Possible  that there are and these are so mild that they go undetected. That is not necessarily a bad thing...if the virus can spread through the population without many severe cases that will produce immunity without overwhelming the health system.

 

I think the big question is whether the Bangkok exodus will significantly ramp up infections in the elderly (since people often went home to parents/grand-parents) and leading to an increased number of more severe cases.

 

 

 

So you have the feeling that we won't reach EU figures ? And that all will be finished at the end of April ?

 

 

[lordblackader]

This is satire, right? More like the end of March or the first week of April. 

[WalkingOrders]

42 minutes ago, DavisH said:

Many countries are like this - The main people infected in South Korea are young - less than 30 or so. They also tested a lot of people, so the death percentage is lower. The majority of Italians are older, and they also ignored warnings at the start. It's also likely an artefact of testing. There is still a controlled amount of testing in Thailand, so low level infections are likely to be more widespread. Only vulnerable groups are being tested at the moment, unless you want to pay for the test yourself. 

Yet hospitalizations, need for ICU care and equipment, deaths in hospitals, would be impossible to hide in Bangkok. So yes under reporting is probable of total cases is possible, it isnt showing up in hospital emergencies and deaths, and it should if such gross under reporting was the case.

Edited March 27, 2020 by WalkingOrders
Sp

[DUNROAMIN]

I don't think the government is telling the real numbers, trying not to panic population, in my area doctors and staff told to keep quiet about number of infections in provinces. 

[Traubert]

4 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Using the Chinese model. No where near reality aka the truth. Using Chinese test kits. Heard this morning that these kits are only 30% accurate.

From who?

[mannytoba]

Farange stampedes homeward and exporting the immigrants and migrants have kept the infected numbers in Thailand deceptively low..I hope the forecast is reasonably accurate. But poorly monitored movement seems to be the poison. Eg. MAGA. 

[Traubert]

4 hours ago, lamyai3 said:

A hundred a day, 30 days in April. He just worked it out on the calculator.

Less recoveries. 7/8 by the Chinese stats.

 

I take it you don't have access to an abacus? ????

[mfd101]

4 hours ago, MaiDong said:

I remember when a Thai Scientist came forward and pronounced that Thailand would suffer(marginally) less than some other nations with rising sea levels. He turned out to be correct, despite many comments of derision - including mine.

Oh rilly? How's that? The seas are still rising and will continue to do so for at least the next 100 or 500 years, no matter what human beings do.

[dinsdale]

1 minute ago, Traubert said:

From who?

It's in the media. This is from Spain.

[WalkingOrders]

2 minutes ago, mannytoba said:

Farange stampedes homeward and exporting the immigrants and migrants have kept the infected numbers in Thailand deceptively low..I hope the forecast is reasonably accurate. But poorly monitored movement seems to be the poison. Eg. MAGA. 

Deceptively low, or reasonably accurate? You seem to have some confusion.

[Boomer6969]

42 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

Possible  that there are and these are so mild that they go undetected. That is not necessarily a bad thing...if the virus can spread through the population without many severe cases that will produce immunity without overwhelming the health system.

We definitely need mass antibody testing. The problem for us is that here it will probably take several months to get carried out. On the other hand, a well defined sample of several hundred thousands could be enough to determine the current level of immunity of the population.

[Traubert]

3 hours ago, joecoolfrog said:

And that is if the improbable current figures are taken as true.

Truth is nobody has any idea of the current scale of the pandemic in Thailand or how many people will end up infected.

Nonsense.

 

There are at least 20 amateur virologists on TVF know exactly how it will pan out and where we are with it today. ????

 

They read it on the internet so it must be true.

[Traubert]

3 hours ago, jasonsamui55 said:

I think those numbers seem overly optimistic.  Look at America where cases are doubling every 3-4 days and they actually have millions of free tests available almost everywhere now and full lockdowns in most states. That's what scares me the most.

Or it shows the futility of random testing.

[monkfish]

56 minutes ago, VintageTQ said:

 

27 March - 1136 cases

 

Kind of blows your theory out of the water !!!

 

Anyone with an ounce of common sense can see that this virus does NOT spread as easily in hot and humid climates, otherwise Thailand would have been in the situation Italy is now in about 6 weeks ago.

 

Early scientific research is finding this to be the case....

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/24/warm-humid-weather-coronavirus/

 

 

 

 

What about Japan that's not a hot climate and they don't have many more cases than Thailand?
And their population 126m.

Edited March 27, 2020 by monkfish

[tomster]

54 minutes ago, DavisH said:

Many countries are like this - The main people infected in South Korea are young - less than 30 or so. They also tested a lot of people, so the death percentage is lower. The majority of Italians are older, and they also ignored warnings at the start. It's also likely an artefact of testing. There is still a controlled amount of testing in Thailand, so low level infections are likely to be more widespread. Only vulnerable groups are being tested at the moment, unless you want to pay for the test yourself. 

And people here generally don't want to pay to test themselves as if they have it they will be quarantined.

 

Hopefully Thailand continue like this until the results of a proper study are released that show the real infection rates within a population, thus giving a much more accurate mortality rate then the crazy 3.4% being touted by the WHO that is putting the fear of God into everyone.

 

You either need to test everybody, test selectively to mimic testing everybody, or only test the suspected cases of it.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

 

Testing a few here and gives a totally incorrect picture, there is no way on Earth that there are only 1000 or so cases in Thailand, it's impossible. That is what got us into this mess in the first place, rubbish testing procedures.

 

Italian doctors testing dead people for the virus and if present declaring it as the cause of death when other things probably killed them, driving up the death rate is also especially unhelpful. Germany don't do that and have a much more realistic death rate of around 0.3% although the actual figure will be less as again they don't test everybody.

[Trevor Collins]

6 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

555! Hard to believe the nAivity of some people in charge.  Some may call it miss placed optimism yet others will call it ineptitude.  When millions don't have the money to have the test and the government won't pay for the test you have a disaster in the making!  3000 will be eclipsed soon enough.  

I predict the number of confirmed cases will be far higher, unless they massage the numbers 

(which they would never do...)

[Sheryl]

33 minutes ago, gamesgplayemail said:

 

 

So you have the feeling that we won't reach EU figures ? And that all will be finished at the end of April ?

 

 

 

I think the rapidity of spread is/will be slower here due to climatic conditions and lower density than it would otherwise be. I cannot predict what % of the population will ultimately be infected; we don't even know what % already have been.

 

And the mortality rate will be lower thanks to younger demographic than it otherwise would be. I cannot predict numbers of deaths especially given no idea how many infected.

 

I also cannot predict when it will be "finished". Slower spread can mean longer duration. It will start to wind down (not totally finish) when a critical mass of the population have acquired immunity.

 

Prior to that, it will slow due to measures taken. But we may see a blip first due to the effects of the Bangkok exodus which will inevitably have infected some of the travellers who in turn may infect their families.

 

Bear in mind average incubation period, the effects of things like the Bangkok out-migration and now  containment measures are not seen for at least 2 weeks.