Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S., subside in June - Washington University analysis

[EVENKEEL]

1 hour ago, heybruce said:

I asked if it had all the required personnel on board.  Your reply suggests that maybe it didn't.

The news said the Comfort in New York was fully manned, preparations could have started before it was announced. However it happened it's good they can help out. 

[JHolmesJr]

Elon Musk has tweeted that he has surplus ventilators and will send them free

with free shipping to any country that needs them. There are hundreds of people

claiming to be from Ukraine, Argentina and elsewhere asking for them. Elon is

really the prince of fools.

 

At least State Dept sent help to China when things were not looking dire.

Of course, this dumba$$ being a liberal from Cali...the media probably won't even notice.

[bristolboy]

3 minutes ago, JHolmesJr said:

Elon Musk has tweeted that he has surplus ventilators and will send them free

with free shipping to any country that needs them. There are hundreds of people

claiming to be from Ukraine, Argentina and elsewhere asking for them. Elon is

really the prince of fools.

 

At least State Dept sent help to China when things were not looking dire.

Of course, this dumba$$ being a liberal from Cali...the media probably won't even notice.

"At least State Dept sent help to China when things were not looking dire."

They were sent sometime around Feb 7. Things were already looking plenty dire. An abundance of caution was called for. Instead the US relied on an abundance of ignorance and denial on the part of its POTUS and Secretary of State.

[JHolmesJr]

2 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

"At least State Dept sent help to China when things were not looking dire."

They were sent sometime around Feb 7. Things were already looking plenty dire. An abundance of caution was called for. Instead the US relied on an abundance of ignorance and denial on the part of its POTUS and Secretary of State.

 

LOL

Your objection is duly noted and taken under advisement.

Now run along and wash your hands.

[lannarebirth]

11 hours ago, Sujo said:

Well he has now issued a different opinion than before. He now says if there are 100,000 deaths he will have done a good job.

 

what happened to it being under control. What happened to the excuse that he didnt want to cause a panic.

 

Thats the problem for trump supporters that blindly follow him. He changes his mind and they have to do head spins to justify what he says.

 

 

 

Their not justifying what he says so much as justifying their own horrendous choices. Personally, I blame the Democrats for making their choice seem worth taking. I hope the Democrats are not making the same mistake again.

[lannarebirth]

11 hours ago, Cryingdick said:

The CDC itself gives different opinions on any given day. They can't all be as certain as you are.

Sickness and death projections may change, but avoidance protocals do not, save for civilians wearing masks, which is an unforgivable deception by an institution that should be trusted.

[lannarebirth]

9 hours ago, heybruce said:

I asked if it had all the required personnel on board.  Your reply suggests that maybe it didn't.

You don't need medical personnel to move a ship. They can meet the ship.

[lannarebirth]

13 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

"At least State Dept sent help to China when things were not looking dire."

They were sent sometime around Feb 7. Things were already looking plenty dire. An abundance of caution was called for. Instead the US relied on an abundance of ignorance and denial on the part of its POTUS and Secretary of State.

 

February 7th is 2 weeks past the time China put a city of 11 Million people on lockdown. Someone thought things were looking dire. Too bad it wasn't us.

[gamb00ler]

15 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

"At least State Dept sent help to China when things were not looking dire."

They were sent sometime around Feb 7. Things were already looking plenty dire. An abundance of caution was called for. Instead the US relied on an abundance of ignorance and denial on the part of its POTUS and Secretary of State.

 

12 minutes ago, JHolmesJr said:

 

LOL

Your objection is duly noted and taken under advisement.

Now run along and wash your hands.

Junior, is it your belief that things have progressed to a dire situation?

 

Since it was predicted by someone on the other team do you believe that was just a coincidence?

[chessman]

Would be much better if these kinds of articles gave us some pointers about what to expect if this model was accurate... This was from the 27th of March and there were only 70,000 cases and 900 deaths it cites. Now a few days later and there are 190,000 cases and more than 4000 deaths in the US. Seems a huge increase to me but maybe this fits their model. If these models came with graphs about what to expect over time then we could judge if they were accurate or probably over estimations or under estimations.

[lannarebirth]

4 minutes ago, chessman said:

Would be much better if these kinds of articles gave us some pointers about what to expect if this model was accurate... This was from the 27th of March and there were only 70,000 cases and 900 deaths it cites. Now a few days later and there are 190,000 cases and more than 4000 deaths in the US. Seems a huge increase to me but maybe this fits their model. If these models came with graphs about what to expect over time then we could judge if they were accurate or probably over estimations or under estimations.

 

From a television news report I saw today, this model assumes every state is on lockdown, but that is not currently the case.  20%- 25% of the population is still not subject to lockdown orders.

[samran]

10 minutes ago, chessman said:

Would be much better if these kinds of articles gave us some pointers about what to expect if this model was accurate... This was from the 27th of March and there were only 70,000 cases and 900 deaths it cites. Now a few days later and there are 190,000 cases and more than 4000 deaths in the US. Seems a huge increase to me but maybe this fits their model. If these models came with graphs about what to expect over time then we could judge if they were accurate or probably over estimations or under estimations.

Basic rule of thumb is that the number of cases doubles every 3 days with no intervention.

 

Add in an average mortality rate in the US of about 1% of known cases to date and you start to get a picture 

[Isaanbiker]

How infectious is Covid 19? 

 

         Most of you have got plenty of time.

 

         There's currently a free Covid 19 online course running where you can easily join in.

 

              One of the videos, very informative. Always updated. 

 

https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/covid19-novel-coronavirus

 

    I hope that it's allowed to post it?

 

Mods, please feel free to delete it, should it be against any forum rules I do not know. Thank you. 

 

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Isaanbiker

[Isaanbiker]

How was the virus found? 

 

    A very informative video. 

[Isaanbiker]

Overview of Coronavirus and Covid 19

[Skallywag]

On 3/27/2020 at 8:01 AM, webfact said:

 

The coronavirus causes a respiratory illness that in a minority of severe cases ravages the lungs and can lead to death.

Minority of "severe" cases lead to death. 

All good, the young can go back to work. 

Elderly and those with pre-existing stay isolated.

Problem solved. Time to move on. 

Life is precious, move forward and sustain the economy safely.

[chessman]

39 minutes ago, samran said:

Basic rule of thumb is that the number of cases doubles every 3 days with no intervention.

 

Add in an average mortality rate in the US of about 1% of known cases to date and you start to get a picture 

Yes, but with these models they are obviously making more complex predictions.

 

That's why it would be good if they included pointers to how they expect the numbers to rise. Then we could judge better who was producing the more accurate models

[lannarebirth]

28 minutes ago, Skallywag said:

Minority of "severe" cases lead to death. 

All good, the young can go back to work. 

Elderly and those with pre-existing stay isolated.

Problem solved. Time to move on. 

Life is precious, move forward and sustain the economy safely.

 

I saw a video yesterday that claimed between 70% and 84% of severe cases (those requiring ventilators), end in death of the patient. Granted, this is not an ICU Doc., but his sources seem sound.

 

 

[Jingthing]

33 minutes ago, Skallywag said:

Minority of "severe" cases lead to death. 

All good, the young can go back to work. 

Elderly and those with pre-existing stay isolated.

Problem solved. Time to move on. 

Life is precious, move forward and sustain the economy safely.

No, that is not the way out of this mess.

Quote

There’s no question the United States missed the opportunity to get ahead of the novel coronavirus. But the window for making important decisions hasn’t closed. The choices we and our leaders make now will have an enormous impact on how soon case numbers start to go down, how long the economy remains shut down and how many Americans will have to bury a loved one because of covid-19.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bill-gates-heres-how-to-make-up-for-lost-time-on-covid-19/2020/03/31/ab5c3cf2-738c-11ea-85cb-8670579b863d_story.html

[Logosone]

It’s a great sign that the administration made deals this week with at least two companies to prepare for vaccine manufacturing. I hope more deals will follow.

 

Okay, thanks Bill, so Trump is on it and doing what needs to be done. That's excellent news.

 

If we do everything right, we could have one in less than 18 months — about the fastest a vaccine has ever been developed. But creating a vaccine is only half the battle. To protect Americans and people around the world, we’ll need to manufacture billions of doses.

 

Okay, so herd immunity it is Bill. That's a fair point, after the vaccine is found, mass production of the vaccine will take considerable time. And that's assuming it'll work  100% of the time, not 50% of the time like the swine flu vaccine.

 

Even the US can not possible defeat this virus. Despite the very laudable efforts of Mr Trump, who's certainly handling it better than the bumbling Boris Johnson or the invisible Angela Merkel.

[gamb00ler]

1 hour ago, Skallywag said:

Minority of "severe" cases lead to death. 

All good, the young can go back to work. 

Elderly and those with pre-existing stay isolated.

Problem solved. Time to move on. 

Life is precious, move forward and sustain the economy safely.

Here's an example of how unleashing the young may work out:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spring-breakers-coroanvirus-28-university-of-texas-students-positive-for-covid-19-travel-to-cabo-san-lucas-mexico/

[metisdead]

Some troll posts and replies have been removed. 

[Skallywag]

8 hours ago, Jingthing said:

No, that is not the way out of this mess.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bill-gates-heres-how-to-make-up-for-lost-time-on-covid-19/2020/03/31/ab5c3cf2-738c-11ea-85cb-8670579b863d_story.html

 

Am speaking about Thailand.  Not the U.S. 

Sweden and the Netherlands are already practicing this.  Agree, would not work in overdeveloped overpopulated countries who have uncontrolled outbreaks presently or on the horizon

Edited April 2, 2020 by Skallywag

[Skallywag]

7 hours ago, gamb00ler said:

Here's an example of how unleashing the young may work out:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spring-breakers-coroanvirus-28-university-of-texas-students-positive-for-covid-19-travel-to-cabo-san-lucas-mexico/

Said go back to work, not travel and have parties.   Was referring to Thailand, not the overdeveloped, overindulgent, uncontrolled 330 million in the U.S.  Numbers of infections are already out of control. there, they need all sorts of help - even with more beds / hospital space, who is going to staff the facilities?  They dont know yet 

 

Thailand could follow Sweden and the Netherlands and have young working adults go back to their jobs.  Elderly and pre-existing stay isolated.  

 

Even after 2-3 months isolation, many elderly and pre-existing condition people will have to be very wary when going out in public.  Flattening the curve is necessary for countries being overwhelmed at their health care facilities.  This is not the case in Thailand, or Malaysia, or Singapore, etc..

[heybruce]

6 minutes ago, Skallywag said:

Said go back to work, not travel and have parties.   Was referring to Thailand, not the overdeveloped, overindulgent, uncontrolled 330 million in the U.S.  Numbers of infections are already out of control. there, they need all sorts of help - even with more beds / hospital space, who is going to staff the facilities?  They dont know yet 

 

Thailand could follow Sweden and the Netherlands and have young working adults go back to their jobs.  Elderly and pre-existing stay isolated.  

 

Even after 2-3 months isolation, many elderly and pre-existing condition people will have to be very wary when going out in public.  Flattening the curve is necessary for countries being overwhelmed at their health care facilities.  This is not the case in Thailand, or Malaysia, or Singapore, etc..

Not yet.

[heybruce]

14 minutes ago, Skallywag said:

 

Am speaking about Thailand.  Not the U.S. 

Sweden and the Netherlands are already practicing this.  Agree, would not work in overdeveloped overpopulated countries who have uncontrolled outbreaks presently or on the horizon

You realize there is a separate forum for Thailand news, don't you?

[Skallywag]

8 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

 

I saw a video yesterday that claimed between 70% and 84% of severe cases (those requiring ventilators), end in death of the patient. Granted, this is not an ICU Doc., but his sources seem sound.

Yes majority of "severe" cases result in death.  The number of "severe" cases is small and 95% of those are elderly and those with pre-existing.  I posted on another thread, that even in New York City, with 38,000 cases at the time,  less than 2400 people were on respirators/ventilators. From the New York Times on 3-30-2020

[Skallywag]

1 minute ago, heybruce said:

You realize there is a separate forum for Thailand news, don't you?

Sorry - went rogue again.  You are correct, this is a "World News" topic 

[mtls2005]

This University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation page is updated frequently.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

Now 60,308 COVID-19 deaths projected by August 4, 2020.

 

Currently at 37,158 as of 18 April 2020.

 

 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

There's a new dashboard on the Johns Hopkins site: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

More detail tabs on the top and bottom of the main dashboard, including a U.S. map down to the county level.