Thailand announces 109 new COVID-19 cases, total cases now 1,245

[FarFlungFalang]

1 minute ago, Eibot said:

So instead of saying the outbreak is low, you say the healthcare system is so big we don't see it? Comon.

 

Only a very small% of the people die. The problem with this virus is the strain it puts in the health systems. In other words, a lot of people needing care at the same time, in other words full hospitals. You can't hide that in 2020 with social media. 

From the many visits I've made to the hospitals here in Thailand I no that it is indeed massive and always under strain and the amount of control that the current administration has on the spread of information both by the military run media (you do know the military own and run the nations media establishment?) and social media and freely detain people for spreading "fake" news which does adhere to their strict policies you only have to look at the rules here on TV to be aware of the lack of freedom of the press and the people.I don't believe the numbers they are putting out.I even believe I've had this virus as I and many TV posters have had many of the symptoms of covid19 which have lasted for about two weeks. 

[Eibot]

3 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Malaysia.

Relatively low compared to any country in Europe.

[FarFlungFalang]

9 minutes ago, Eibot said:

And in colder climates the hospitalisation rate doubles every 3 days (just the hospitalisation rate not confirmed cases). I 2000 cases is absolutely peanuts, and I think it's an accurate prediction for a virus that's spread linear.

You going from 100 a day for a week then suddenly jumping from 1000 to 2000 in three days is linear?It might be a line but not a very straight one.Have you been watch the news releases here on TV?Where the same "expert" says the number of cases will rise by 3000 in one month then the next day the same "expert says it will rise by 9000 in one month.

[Eibot]

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

From the many visits I've made to the hospitals here in Thailand I no that it is indeed massive and always under strain and the amount of control that the current administration has on the spread of information both by the military run media (you do know the military own and run the nations media establishment?) and social media and freely detain people for spreading "fake" news which does adhere to their strict policies you only have to look at the rules here on TV to be aware of the lack of freedom of the press and the people.I don't believe the numbers they are putting out.I even believe I've had this virus as I and many TV posters have had many of the symptoms of covid19 which have lasted for about two weeks. 

There is nothing safe on social media for Thais. Looking at your reaction you probably don't use Twitter or Instagram. I also don't think you understand what kind of strain Covid19 puts on a healthcare system. As you say, hospitals are already busy in Thailand making it even more unlikely they can cover up/have been covering up a mass outbreak.

[Eibot]

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

You going from 100 a day for a week then suddenly jumping from 1000 to 2000 in three days is linear?It might be a line but not a very straight one.Have you been watch the news releases here on TV?Where the same "expert" says the number of cases will rise by 3000 in one month then the next day the same "expert says it will rise by 9000 in one month.

I believe they simply test more. I think they actual cases might be in the 15000/20000 and have been growing slowly since January.

 

[473geo]

1 minute ago, Eibot said:

There is nothing safe on social media for Thais. Looking at your reaction you probably don't use Twitter or Instagram. I also don't think you understand what kind of strain Covid19 puts on a healthcare system. As you say, hospitals are already busy in Thailand making it even more unlikely they can cover up/have been covering up a mass outbreak.

Fever is common in Thailand, old people die at home it is a different way and understanding

[Ron jeremy]

15 minutes ago, Eibot said:

The first case was on 13/01 yet is never created an outbreak.

There has been outbreaks all along

 

The Thai government has not told the truth

even now

 

[FarFlungFalang]

2 minutes ago, Eibot said:

There is nothing safe on social media for Thais. Looking at your reaction you probably don't use Twitter or Instagram. I also don't think you understand what kind of strain Covid19 puts on a healthcare system. As you say, hospitals are already busy in Thailand making it even more unlikely they can cover up/have been covering up a mass outbreak.

What is it that makes you think that I don't understand what a tremendous strain covid19 puts on healthcare systems when it's all over the news and extremely difficult not to understand?

[dinsdale]

6 minutes ago, Eibot said:

There is nothing safe on social media for Thais. Looking at your reaction you probably don't use Twitter or Instagram. I also don't think you understand what kind of strain Covid19 puts on a healthcare system. As you say, hospitals are already busy in Thailand making it even more unlikely they can cover up/have been covering up a mass outbreak.

Well maybe you're right but the official figures come from the MOH.  How can you cover up what you're not testing for? Unfortunately this IS a form of cover up. Don't test. Don't tell. Mass outbreak is underway.

Edited March 28, 2020 by dinsdale

[FarFlungFalang]

1 minute ago, 473geo said:

Fever is common in Thailand, old people die at home it is a different way and understanding

Yes had one die last week over the road from us in the village and I see many many old people all around here waiting for their turn to pass.Much better being surrounded by family than being shunted off to a nursing home to die alone.

[Eibot]

8 minutes ago, 473geo said:

Fever is common in Thailand, old people die at home it is a different way and understanding

When someone is chocking and cannot breathe. You take them to a hospital. This also applies for the villages.

[Eibot]

10 minutes ago, Ron jeremy said:

There has been outbreaks all along

 

The Thai government has not told the truth

even now

 

Outbreaks = thousands of people going to the hospital at the same time because they can't breathe. 

[Eibot]

11 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

What is it that makes you think that I don't understand what a tremendous strain covid19 puts on healthcare systems when it's all over the news and extremely difficult not to understand?

Because you think the government is covering up an outbreak. Right?

[FarFlungFalang]

53 minutes ago, Eibot said:

2) my point; the outbreak isn't merely as bad in Thailand due to the climate, therefore we don't see it.

Just one more thing Thailand's first cases appeared in Jan during Thailand cool season the numbers zipped up to 37 where the remained static for a period then very slow increase until a couple of weeks ago when it started to get hot and now that it's really hot the numbers are starting to really take off again which doesn't seem to fit in with your hot weather theory.

[Eibot]

10 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Well maybe you're right but the official figures come from the MOH.  How can you cover up what you're not testing for? Unfortunately this IS a form of cover up. Don't test. Don't tell. Mass outbreak is underway.

Then all countries in the world are guilty of covering up. I don't think there is, it should have happened a long time ago already and the whole of SEA is not showing that trend.

[Eibot]

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Just one more thing Thailand's first cases appeared in Jan during Thailand cool season the numbers zipped up to 37 where the remained static for a period then very slow increase until a couple of weeks ago when it started to get hot and now that it's really hot the numbers are starting to really take off again which doesn't seem to fit in with your hot weather theory.

Again, they just test more since it became a worldwide pandamic. If it started we should see the hospitals full, closing off other essential services and the death increasing.

[SantiSuk]

8 hours ago, AlexRich said:

The US is testing thousands every day, hence the numbers. I’d guess that Thailand is not. I’d also guess that Thailand is not revealing the correct numbers and that deaths are being misdiagnosed. My guess is that your 5,000 cases is already here.

"the deaths are being misdiagnosed"

 

So your theory is that the entire medical profession in Thailand is either in on some massive cover-up which involves them lying to relatives about the diagnosis as it develops and then about the cause of death. All relatives remain silent while listening to a description of a diagnosis  when they know the symptoms they saw in its early stages were rather like the description of Covid. All relatives are cowed by government (whom most of them despise) and so they keep quiet.

 

Either the cover-up theory or or the medical profession are all idiots and can't differentiate Covid from other infectious diseases.

 

Not logical captain - like most conspiracy theories.

 

 

[473geo]

10 minutes ago, Eibot said:

When someone is chocking and cannot breathe. You take them to a hospital. This also applies for the villages.

Perhaps in your medical capacity you can explain when somebody is weak and frail exactly how long they have to have difficulty breathing before the heart gives out - 1 hour - 7 hours - 10 hours and actually there is a chance they will go to the local doctor first who may prescribe tablets and send them home to see how it goes. Especially if awareness of the virus is limited, people in Thailand don't generally think of going to hospital with a fever, as I said, far too common and most people see their local doctor if necessary and expect to get over it.

[TheAppletons]

6 minutes ago, SantiSuk said:

"the deaths are being misdiagnosed"

 

So your theory is that the entire medical profession in Thailand is either in on some massive cover-up which involves them lying to relatives about the diagnosis as it develops and then about the cause of death. All relatives remain silent while listening to a description of a diagnosis  when they know the symptoms they saw in its early stages were rather like the description of Covid. All relatives are cowed by government (whom most of them despise) and so they keep quiet.

 

Either the cover-up theory or or the medical profession are all idiots and can't differentiate Covid from other infectious diseases.

 

Not logical captain - like most conspiracy theories.

 

 

  No, I think what he's saying is that they don't conduct post-mortem autopsies to determine if the patient had COVID19.

 

  If the patient hasn't been tested prior to death, then the cause of death would be attributed to heart failure or pneumonia or whatever.  

[Jingthing]

It's not really a mystery or a fraud.

For a long time the testing criteria in Thailand have been very limited --

travel history from a high risk country

direct contact with a confirmed case

 

So if an elderly patient dies of a lung infection / pneumonia and has never been tested because they didn't meet those ridiculously limited criteria -- their cause of death will be the lung infection not Covid-19.

 

I assume that recently Thailand has acknowledged community spread and is doing more testing. Thus as expected we're seeing higher numbers here.

[dinsdale]

4 minutes ago, Eibot said:

Then all countries in the world are guilty of covering up. I don't think there is, it should have happened a long time ago already and the whole of SEA is not showing that trend.

Thailand. 14/03 82 cases. 28/03 1,245. I seem to need to say this a bit. Some countries numbers and going up rapidly because their testing more. It only stands to reason the more you test the more you find the less you test the less you find. Nevertheless, officially 1,163 in half a month you're saying isn't a trend. Let's see what it is half way through next wk not next month. 

[Sametboy2019]

Influenza is a common cause of pneumonia, especially among younger children, the elderly, pregnant women, or those with certain chronic health conditions or who live in a nursing home. Most cases of flu never lead to pneumonia, but those that do tend to be more severe and deadly. In fact, flu and pneumonia were the eighth leading cause of death in the United States in 2016.

 

Interesting this one is not targeting the young!!! Apart from that it seems by percentage that is two or three times more serious than normal flu. Probably by the fact that it is so contagious so hospitals cant cope with the numbers.

 

All the taxes we pay and all the money that seems to get lost or wasted and when its really needed the people suffer. We really have allowed the powers to be to manipulate us so badly that we are nothing more than sheeple.

[pookondee]

8 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

This remains an incredibly low number, considering the millions of Chinese people who were crowded about in Thailand in January. And if those people were infected, and mixing with the general population, and if we were going to see an explosion in cases, like alot of fear mongering officials are saying, it would have happened already. Sorry to disappoint. But, it will not grow to alarming numbers here. I anticipate it leveling off at 5,000 cases or less. Granted, I could be wrong. This is simply my personal estimate, partly based on some evidence that heat seems to decimate this virus, and the fact that it seems to thrive in temperatures of 35-67 degrees F. There is some science to back up this assertion. If this was going to become an alarming situation, it would have happened already. 100 new cases a day is nothing. We are seeing 10,000 plus in the US.

 

 

 

You said it:

"100 new cases a day is nothing"

 

The problem with that is the daily numbers of tests that come back positive are not an accurate representation of the real total infection rate.

 

The figures of 100 NEW cases reported per day are probably just the daily influx of folk who have been isolating at home and eventually became so sick they were forced to go to hospital.

 

IMO, The bigger problem now is the numbers of sick that are isolating at home, who (considering Thai way of life) will potentially infect family members.

 

And lockdown or no, those family members will eventually mix with the public when doing the essential shopping and such.

 

But I hope your theory is correct sir, otherwise it might mean the fear mongering officials know a lot more than us.

 

 

 

 

 

[Dogmatix]

8 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Yes, but that's the usual case, they always were: https://www.krungsri.com/bank/getmedia/587ccdaa-91a8-4305-a86f-30ea43558f0b/IO_Private_Hospital_190624_EN_EX.aspx

 

The criteria to get recognized as PUI and get into the pending results queue is fairly strict:

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_CPG_en.pdf

 

 

If you are a common somchai with a fever and a cough of unknown origin, no dice. You have to have had contact with the confirmed ones, been in another country or worked with tourists in a few areas to get in, or already have severe pneumonia.

 

My guess is the hike in pending results is due to category 4 people starting to show up at the hospitals. Next up, corridors filled with pneumonia patients.

 

Stay home, stay safe.

 

Note that healthcare personnel with symptoms are ineligible for testing unless they have pneumonia.  That means that healthcare personnel with symptoms but not yet pneumonia can continue working. A nurse in Spain said she thought her hospital didn't dare routinely test staff for fear that so many would test positive without symptoms that after they and all other staff that had been in contact with them had been quarantined, there would be no one left to tend to the sick and the hospital would have to close down.

[Dogmatix]

The numbers of new cases staying around the 100 mark seem suspiciously low. If they are suppressing much higher numbers, the truth will out in the end because hospitals, particularly in regions like Isaan that have pitiful numbers of beds and doctors per 10,000 population will be overwhelmed with pneumonia patients. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Dogmatix

[Dogmatix]

25 minutes ago, pookondee said:

 

You said it:

"100 new cases a day is nothing"

 

The problem with that is the daily numbers of tests that come back positive are not an accurate representation of the real total infection rate.

 

The figures of 100 NEW cases reported per day are probably just the daily influx of folk who have been isolating at home and eventually became so sick they were forced to go to hospital.

 

IMO, The bigger problem now is the numbers of sick that are isolating at home, who (considering Thai way of life) will potentially infect family members.

 

And lockdown or no, those family members will eventually mix with the public when doing the essential shopping and such.

 

But I hope your theory is correct sir, otherwise it might mean the fear mongering officials know a lot more than us.

 

In Wuhan a large number of the cases were family members of patients with mild symptoms who were ordered to self isolate at home.  Even if you behave sensibly, it is extremely difficult to avoid infecting people living in a small flat with you. Thai self isolators are more likely to be wandering around infecting people in other households as well. 

[AlexRich]

7 hours ago, Krataiboy said:

You should know.

I do. I’ve read your posts before.

[473geo]

If one considers there were 100,000+ dengue cases in Thailand in 2019 over 100 deaths and I cannot recall any news where this appeared to adversely affect the health service, then not seeing hospitals full is possibly an inappropriate measure of the spread of a virus with low % death rate

[marc651]

4 hours ago, Dogmatix said:

The numbers of new cases staying around the 100 mark seem suspiciously low. If they are suppressing much higher numbers, the truth will out in the end because hospitals, particularly in regions like Isaan that have pitiful numbers of beds and doctors per 10,000 population will be overwhelmed with pneumonia patients. 

Exactly!  The correct metric is not the number of positive tests (which higly depend on how much they test), but the number of occupied ICU beds. That is the strongest indicator of the scale of the epidemic.

But you have to keep in mind that those numbers display the situation 3 weeks ago. First there is the incubation period, then the part where people have mild symptoms, only later it gets critical. When they get moved to ICU, put on a ventialtor, they have been infected typically 2 to 3 weeks earlier.  But counting those cases give you the closest you can get to real numbers.

[Drax]

16 hours ago, bkkatl said:

Have you been to the markets recently? The one by my house is jam packed every night. Of course they are not just selling food. They are selling clothes, phones, and other items at the back of the market. Easy pickings for the police since it's right by the Bang Son MRT station but of course the PoPo are no where to find. 

Yeah. I hope they start arresting all these people who aren’t staying home. For all I care they can all die from the vírus on prison so that this crisis finnaly over. 
 

95% of population is already taking measures  to prevent the spread, but the issue is the remaining 5% are keeping this impossible to stop prejudicing everyone. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Drax