Thailand reports 143 new COVID-19 cases, 1 death

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

21 minutes ago, Eibot said:

 

Do you see my point?

 

 

The virus originated in China..not Thailand. So, it' first import into Thailand came via BKK via flight arrival Chinese tourists and some Thai returnees... Thus that's where the first cases occurred, and where the first transmission occurred, slowly at first... But eventually, it gained steam in BKK and began to spread to surrounding areas.... And the same will eventually occur at far distant areas like KK and elsewhere... At what pace/speed, I can't say...

 

Except, I can say, in the absence of meaningful preventive measures, eventually, those few KK cases are going to grow and grow, as will the share of them that the government ends up reporting. It's just a matter of time, because the virus is contagious, and the local population where you are in all likelihood is doing very little to protect themselves or prevent the spread.

 

Plus, with CV, of course not everyone who's actually infected gets sick enough to require hospitalization, that's a smaller share. But on the flip side, EVERYONE who's infected is contagious for all those who they come into close contact with.... Which is why the virus will spread, absent intervention.

 

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Dap]

20 minutes ago, Eibot said:

No. If that was the case, this would have happened beginning of feb already. 

Guess I'll just wait and see.

[jimn]

1 hour ago, Ricebarnandrooms said:

Lockdown??? Do you see how many flights arrive today from Hong Kong, Korea And Even China. 
 

How is that possible under the terms of the State of Emergency?

Entry and borders

An Emergency Decree entered into force on 26 March 2020, initially for one month. As part of this, the Thai authorities announced on 25 March that all foreign nationals will be barred from entering Thailand except in certain circumstances (see below). If you do not meet these criteria you should not try to enter Thailand:

• Foreign diplomats and their families will be allowed to enter Thailand, but they will need a fit-to-fly health certificate (issued within 72 hours prior to travel) similar to Thai nationals’ and a certification letter issued by the Thai MFA. If suspected of carrying COVID-19, they may be denied entry into the country.
• Foreign nationals with work permits in Thailand will be allowed to enter Thailand, but they will need a fit-to-fly health certificate (issued within 72 hours prior to travel). If suspected of carrying COVID-19, they may be denied entry into the country.
• Persons who have been exempted by the PM
• Pilots and flight attendants – with a fixed travel schedule
• Shippers – Will have to leave immediately after they have carried out their shipment.

[Barry343]

4 hours ago, Kaopad999 said:

Prepare for a fall curfew guys. Clearly people have not been taking advice to self isolate.. 

I thought there was a 7 pm to 7 am curfew in place or is that only in Chiang Mia?

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

7 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Treatment finished. Bag of antibiotics and off you go. They do the same with incurable cancer patients. Wife's uncle, her mum's brother died at home last year from cancer. Can't do anything so off you go home to die.

 So did her symptoms abate/resolve after the medical treatment?

 

[473geo]

7 minutes ago, jimn said:

Symptoms are a dry cough, as you and your family had a tickly cough you obviously didnt have Covid 19, so what is your point?

I believe I did say the same in my post - pleased you managed to get that right, and thanks for the confirmation Dr ????

Good job I didn't just say irritating cough, you might have been overcome with concern ????

[Eibot]

13 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Because Thailand the first testing.

 

you think UK, USA, Europe not have Chinese tourist in January? Every country get it same time. 

No they were not. Just Chinese people getting sick and reporting themselves to the local hospitals were (maybe) tested. Do you think all these countries we're doing free Covid-19 test at the hospitals for all the Chinese tourist. So yes, Thailand was the FIRST country. Logical as well with the millions of Chinese visiting Thailand every year.

 

What is even a bigger miracle is that the disease never spread more in Thailand, but again it did in SK, Europe, and US where it's cold.

 

Covid-19 test is not the same as the tempeture meter gun If you mean that.

[Barry343]

Just now, jimn said:

How is that possible under the terms of the State of Emergency?

Entry and borders

An Emergency Decree entered into force on 26 March 2020, initially for one month. As part of this, the Thai authorities announced on 25 March that all foreign nationals will be barred from entering Thailand except in certain circumstances (see below). If you do not meet these criteria you should not try to enter Thailand:

• Foreign diplomats and their families will be allowed to enter Thailand, but they will need a fit-to-fly health certificate (issued within 72 hours prior to travel) similar to Thai nationals’ and a certification letter issued by the Thai MFA. If suspected of carrying COVID-19, they may be denied entry into the country.
• Foreign nationals with work permits in Thailand will be allowed to enter Thailand, but they will need a fit-to-fly health certificate (issued within 72 hours prior to travel). If suspected of carrying COVID-19, they may be denied entry into the country.
• Persons who have been exempted by the PM
• Pilots and flight attendants – with a fixed travel schedule
• Shippers – Will have to leave immediately after they have carried out their shipment.

NO FLIGHTS ARRIVING FROM THESE COUNTRIES.

[emptypockets]

3 minutes ago, Eibot said:

Well since there is no mass strain on the healthcare system, it doesn't seem to spread as fast as in Europe. So whats the problem.

For someone who claims his wife works at a hospital you are either very naieve it simply blissfully unaware how the hospital system works.

Rural patients either die or get sent home and subsequently die if they are really sick. The cause of death will be recorded based on symptoms eg. Pneumonia and not on the disease eg COVID-19.

People dying of pneumonia is not worth jumping all over social media about.

The numbers are much, much higher in my opinion, than those being published.

[DrTuner]

3 hours ago, Guderian said:

I had a short drive along Jomtien Beach yesterday and the Thais seem to be taking the 'stay at home' message seriously. On the weekend it's normally packed out down there, but yesterday there was hardly anybody, at least down the Wat Bun/Chaiyapruek end where I happened to be. I've got to admit, I was surprised.

Couple of explanations .. those now without a job have gone back up north. The ones living here have contact to farangs that have painted a picture of black death to them and succesfully scared the <deleted> out of them (well done!). 

[graemeaylward]

44 minutes ago, Eibot said:

1) You cannot hide european like outbreaks

2) There are not reports news/social media of outbreaks

3) My wife works in the local hospital (BKk hospital KK) and we are both amazed at the lack of outbreaks over the past months.

BKK is, I believe, a private hospital.  Covid-19 victims or those suspected of having the virus are taken to government hospitals which in Khon Kaen are bursting ate the seams! 

 

[Eibot]

13 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Australia, although it is now slowing due to measures out in place.

We must have a different mathematical understanding of "doubling" or "tripling". 

 

Australia has 16 deaths FYI with its first case test on 25/01 of this year.

[emptypockets]

5 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 So did her symptoms abate/resolve after the medical treatment?

 

No, she is at home and still feeling very sick.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

No, she is at home and still feeling very sick.

 

Sorry to hear that... Thanks for clarifying...

 

I was hoping for the good outcome.... her symptoms had resolved with treatment.

 

But I was afraid the more likely result was what you've said -- bag of antibiotics and sent home.

 

[Eibot]

10 minutes ago, Dap said:

I have no idea and haven't thought to check the temperatures around the world, only the number of incidents and fatalities. Why would I be checking temperatures?

Because the two are related and it seems it would be interesting to know if the 3rd world countries are going to have a pandemic of epic proportions.. 

[crazykopite]

3 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

In Phuket in our area it is pretty much socially compulsory to wear a mask. At macro they now insist on it if you want to go in. But it’s also busy inside with people too close to each other for comfort I would say. I don’t know about local markets, I’ve avoided them as I suspect there will be close contact. 
 

dare I say it, Thais seem to think a mask is a cure all.

A scientific test carried out over the last two weeks found that the. Virus if found on a newspaper or a letter lasted no more than an hour on furniture up to 3 hours however when it came to wearing a mask once the mask was removed the virus is still on the mask for up to 7 hours that is why the World Health Organisation do Not recommend the wearing of face masks however if the country you reside in makes a ruling that you must wear a face mask you must follow the ruling my worry is that if your wearing the mask for several hours you are infecting yourself every time you breath.

Edited March 29, 2020 by crazykopite

[emptypockets]

3 minutes ago, Eibot said:

We must have a different mathematical understanding of "doubling" or "tripling". 

 

Australia has 16 deaths FYI with its first case test on 25/01 of this year.

There was no mention of deaths in your post, simply the number of cases.

Stop digging that hole....you are only getting deeper.

[emptypockets]

4 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Sorry to hear that... Thanks for clarifying...

 

I was hoping for the good outcome.... her symptoms had resolved with treatment.

 

But I was afraid the more likely result was what you've said -- bag of antibiotics and sent home.

 

Thanks, I think she may be over the worst of it and I hope she pulls through ok. She was fine when went to Bangkok on Monday and still ok when we flew to Sydney on Tuesday. But at 78, who knows what will happen She's a tough old bird so fingers crossed.

Edited March 29, 2020 by emptypockets

[Eibot]

12 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The virus originated in China..not Thailand. So, it' first import into Thailand came via BKK via flight arrival Chinese tourists and some Thai returnees... Thus that's where the first cases occurred, and where the first transmission occurred, slowly at first... But eventually, it gained steam in BKK and began to spread to surrounding areas.... And the same will eventually occur at far distant areas like KK and elsewhere... At what pace/speed, I can't say...

 

Except, I can say, in the absence of meaningful preventive measures, eventually, those few KK cases are going to grow and grow, as will the share of them that the government ends up reporting. It's just a matter of time, because the virus is contagious, and the local population where you are in all likelihood is doing very little to protect themselves or prevent the spread.

 

Your missing the point.

 

The virus will grow, and the virus has been growing in Thailand for many months. Right? 

However the growth of the virus isn't exponentially equal to that of colder climates (Europe/US), thus the influx or strain on the healthcare system is not the same as in Europe. 

 

That strain is what makes Covid-19 dangerous. The virus will not go anywhere, so the changes are big 70% of Thailand will have had Covid at some point in the upcoming three years. And yes, people will die as they do from TB or Denguefever. 

[Timwin]

<deleted> is wrong with some of you "They are lying!"-people? It is like you WANT the numbers be worse ???? It is the climate, stupid. It is protecting us from rapid spreading. The climate was the reason anyway most of you conspiracy theorists moved here in the first place...

[jimn]

45 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

People in BKK and Chonburi don't stay in BKK and Chonburi... They travel back and forth upcountry, and now with the closures in BKK, you can bet lots of those folks have already headed home to their provinces, where -- in the absence of any meaningful preventive measures -- the virus will spread just as it's done in BKK in the past month. There's no reason it wouldn't.  You're just saying the same thing now that Trump was saying in the U.S. a month ago...but now a month later, not hearing that anymore.

 

These province numbers below from govt data are a couple days old:

 

 

Not necessarily. If they have the virus when they arrive I agree. But as far as I know anyone arriving in a province has to self isolate for 14 days. I know this will not be strictly enforced in every case, but those I know of, this is the case

[rabas]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

stand corrected a bit...  The MoPH recently claimed in a news report here on TVF that they had the ability to handle 20,000!!!! lab tests per day, 10K from BKK and 10K from elsewhere...  And yet, we're getting a few hundred test results reported per day.... Why?

From what I've read, there have been 3 phases of testing in Thailand.

 

Preliminary

  Full genome sequencing.

  About 5 every 3-4 days.

Phase 2

  Mostly up to now. PCR testing using Thai developed codes.

  100s per day. test is about 6 hrs. not including logistics.

   cost: several 1000 baht

Phase 3

  Recently announced, (coming on line?), new CRISPER technology.

  Collaboratively developed with U.S. MIT, Broad Institute.

  45 min/test, high volume, 10000s per day.

  Good accuracy, cheap (they say).

   

These are all based on genetic code not antibodies.

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by rabas

[emptypockets]

Friends in Myanmar have told me the cases there went from one to two to eight last week.

[DrTuner]

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Here's the data you passed along:

 

From my wife's translation of the Thai below, those numbers below are DAILY numbers for people tested with results for that day, the portion of those who tested positive and the positive percentage rate. The 714 number for the 26th isn't a cumulative number but a one day number, AFAIK. 

 

But the far right column in yellow is a cumulative number for the backlog of patients awaiting test results.  And it clearly shows, as I've posted many times here based on the DDC's daily reports, the backlog of patients awaiting test results have been rapidly spiraling upward... And I've never heard any explanation from the authorities of why that backlog of suspected cases that haven't been confirmed yes or no has been growing so fast.

 

But it also seems to show that for whatever reasons, the government at present is only able or willing to produce a few hundred actual test results per day... and generally in the 300-700 range per day...  Which is a pretty small number, considering they've publicly said their labs supposedly have the ability to runs many thousands of tests per day.

 

 

The percentage of positives is also quite interesting. Their PUI admission criteria seems to produce highly varying percentages, implying it's not very useful. I would guess on the days they tested more and the percentage was lower, they were testing people from clusters. To be effective testing measures should be on a far wider part of the public.

 

So, now we know the capabilites. With this, they will never be able to keep up with the real infection count. It wasn't that hard to guess this was the case from the beginning. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by DrTuner

[Tropposurfer]

Strict observance of isolation as part of what qualifies as social distancing does work very effectively.

if you are far enough away from carriers you can’t get infected.

if you don’t believe me take a look at the Korean experience.

 

[DrTuner]

4 minutes ago, rabas said:

Phase 3

  Recently announced, (coming on line?), new CRISPER technology.

  Collaboratively developed with U.S. MIT, Broad Institute.

  45 min/test, high volume, 10000s per day.

  Good accuracy, cheap (they say).

I haven't seen any updates about this since the press conference. The question is, can they actually produce these kits in mass?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

6 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

The percentage of positives is also quite interesting. Their PUI admission criteria seems to produce highly varying percentages, implying it's not very useful. I would guess on the days they tested more and the percentage was lower, they were testing people from clusters. To be effective testing measures should be on a far wider part of the public.

 

So, now we know the capabilites. With this, they will never be able to keep up with the real infection count. It wasn't that hard to guess this was the case from the beginning. 

 

But the question remains -- with a stated lab capacity of handling 20,000 COVID tests per day, why are they producing 300-700 results per day while the pending test results caseload spirals into the thousands?

 

It could be some slowness/restraints being places on the processing of the tests, or, I suppose, it could also be that someone is simply deciding to conserve the limited supply of test kits that they may have, not use them on just any PUI that presents..... Hard to know.

 

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Eibot]

11 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

For someone who claims his wife works at a hospital you are either very naieve it simply blissfully unaware how the hospital system works.

Rural patients either die or get sent home and subsequently die if they are really sick. The cause of death will be recorded based on symptoms eg. Pneumonia and not on the disease eg COVID-19.

People dying of pneumonia is not worth jumping all over social media about.

The numbers are much, much higher in my opinion, than those being published.

You don't think that if a loved on is grasping for air, you going to the hospital, them saying they cannot do anything and that person chokes (with all Covid-19 on the news) they are not putting this on Facebook/Twitter/Instagram/Line? 

 

I agree that the numbers are a lot higher, but not an influx that is putting an enormous strain on the heal system. The hospitals in Spain, Italy, UK, US (NYC) look like something out of a war. I'm not as naive to think you can hide something like that. 

 

Sure we have people dying from Covid-19, but as I explained in previous posts, the danger of Covid-19 is the suddenly influx of patients completely overwhelming a healthcare system, thus they cannot even help people with minor health problems. Scenes like this include ambulances everywhere, mass graves and hospitals being absolutely packed. 

[jimn]

24 minutes ago, crazykopite said:

Unfortunately the figures will double every day as will the death numbers. The government have sat on there backsides for months so much so that the health minister declared the virus would blow away in the wind for SONGKRAN.

Nonsence, so when the figures stay in the 100's and not double evey day you will know you are wrong. By your reckoning cases will be 286 tomorrow, 572 on Tuesday and over a 1,000 on Wednesday. Dont you see how crazy your comment is?

[Eibot]

16 minutes ago, graemeaylward said:

BKK is, I believe, a private hospital.  Covid-19 victims or those suspected of having the virus are taken to government hospitals which in Khon Kaen are bursting ate the seams! 

 

You don't think all the hospitals aren't closely in contact every hour to assess the situation? Which government hospitals are bursting  at this moment then?