Crime will go down. Most crime is opportunistic and people will have less opportunities. Crime already down a lot in the U.K. and I suspect this trend will be mirrored worldwide.

 

of course, if law and order completely collapse then anything could happen but that’s a loooong way off.

9 minutes ago, Brewster67 said:

About one in ten people in Thailand legally own a gun. There are more than six million registered guns in a country with a population of 66.7 million.^[1] Small Arms Survey estimates that the total number of guns, both licit and illicit, held by Thai civilians in 2017 is 10,300,000

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firearms_in_Thailand

Also your 15000 baht cash giveaway is seriously limited, go do your research before jumping in.

 

Don't agree, many Thai families (2 adults & 2 kids) normally survive on not much more than 5,000Baht a month. I've lived and worked here for over 30 years, I think I do have some insights into this.

2 minutes ago, scorecard said:

 Get the facts right, yes it was massively over-subscribed but massive numbers were in reality not eligible.  

 

The government has already mentioned that the support payment might be continued.

 

You ignore that many Thai folks are quite resourceful and often share. Just one example, my Thai son and his wife decided to form a loose sharing group with 2 neighbors and also my son's work buddy and his wife. Son's buddy has a big freezer in his house (a gift that's never been used nor really wanted, he switched it on and it works perfectly) 2 of the wives did an organized shop up of meat at clean wet markets, 2 more did the same for fruit & veg, 1 found a dairy outlet to buy fresh clean milk. My son's mid teenage daughter got into the act, she asked her father to buy bulk flour etc., and she's making bread every day for everybody.

 

The group made a plan for distribution and methods to ensure minimal / no contact. They're doing OK.

You make it sound like ALL THAIS are doing this and have ready access to unlimited food and charity... It isn't like that in reality... Also there are only 3 million payments being dished out in a population of about 68 million.

 

My post is NOT about an inevitable attack, but a 'heightened risk'...

1 hour ago, nausea said:

The guys and gals made redundant by this aren't particularly admired for their moral uprightness.

What a stupid comment! Lots of people who worked in restaurants and hotels have no work and no income anymore. Are they all immoral? 

2 minutes ago, scorecard said:

 Get the facts right, yes it was massively over-subscribed but massive numbers were in reality not eligible.  

 

The government has already mentioned that the support payment might be continued.

 

You ignore that many Thai folks are quite resourceful and often share. Just one example, my Thai son and his wife decided to form a loose sharing group with 2 neighbors and also my son's work buddy and his wife. Son's buddy has a big freezer in his house (a gift that's never been used nor really wanted, he switched it on and it works perfectly) 2 of the wives did an organized shop up of meat at clean wet markets, 2 more did the same for fruit & veg, 1 found a dairy outlet to buy fresh clean milk. My son's mid teenage daughter got into the act, she asked her father to buy bulk flour etc., and she's making bread every day for everybody.

 

The group made a plan for distribution and methods to ensure minimal / no contact. They're doing OK.

Yes thats what a big chunk of the population will be doing, given that there isnt usually a welfare system, most Thais are used to taking care of themselves at some time in their life.

 

13 minutes ago, Brewster67 said:

Also it is NOT going to all the 19 million applicants. My wife applied for it and says the lucky ones will be chosen to get it, the rest will not get it. Also the mortgage on hold element only applies to the principle and not the interest.

 

I don't think there is a 3 month wait before we see truly desperate times, I think there are enough people already with no incomes to start showing a difference in behaviour.

 You seem to forget that the world is currently in a mess and unfortunately millions of folks in many countries are doing it tough.

 

Do you actually expect that governments should have / do have a magic answer. Nice idea but not reality unfortunately. 

Short answer..yes

Assuming this $hit$how drags on.

 

How to mitigate?

A number of options depending on your circumstances

 

Consider a gated community if you can afford it.

 

A condo ..but a terrible option if a lift breaks down and curfews prevent technicians fixin it (or lack of spare parts)..electricity and water might become issues too.

 

Dogs and extra lighting if you have a 'compound' and a security night-guard if you know a trustworthy thai

 

Avoid riding a motorbike if things start goin belly up...use a car if you have one.

 

Last but not least...get out if you can and money isn't a problem

 

Just a few ideas off the top of my head..

 

People who expect poor/broke thais to crawl in a corner and die if things break down are in for a rude surprise

Keep in mind that Thailand also has unresolved political issues (red vs yellow) that might come to the fore too

Have a nice day ????

 

 

 

 

1 minute ago, Peterw42 said:

Yes thats what a big chunk of the population will be doing, given that there isnt usually a welfare system, most Thais are used to taking care of themselves at some time in their life.

 

All true and for a while, maybe even longer, temples might be one source of survival food.

Anyone who has a home and has not taken the proper means to protect/defend themselves and their home, is unprepared, uneducated and naive.  

If things get really bad, most Thais will tap into the countries Gold reserves that they wear around their neck. For a big chunk of the Thai population that is their social security, their savings for a rainy day, their insurance.

 

 

1 hour ago, Don Mega said:

The smell of the stinky farang will have the robber stay away.

Last night while we were playing cards , my wife said to me:
It would be nice if you avoided riding your MTBike, people don't like to see you as free as the air ...
I replied: but who sees me, there is no one on the roads on which I drive.
moreover, between 10 pm and 4 am I sleep ...

1 hour ago, Brewster67 said:

Will Westerners be Targeted For Theft?

It is 100% certain that they will be. Not right now, not this month, but when things do start to go downhill it will happen with a speed and ferocity that will astonish all the guys who imagined they are "practically a native" because they stumble through a few words of Thai when shopping and always wave to their neighbors.

Of course, my suggesting this now will generate the usual angry responses from people clinging to the comforting delusion that, in not getting out while they could, they haven't made a terrible mistake. So, I'm just going to sit back and watch the drama unfold on this forum over the coming months.

What will happen between now and the end of this year is going to dramatically change the viability of Thailand as an expat, retirement, and tourist destination.

 

7 minutes ago, scorecard said:

All true and for a while, maybe even longer, temples might be one source of survival food.

Yes thats right, if it gets really bad, temples become soup kitchens and shelter. However, I dont think its that bad just yet.

1 minute ago, Peterw42 said:

If things get really bad, most Thais will tap into the countries Gold reserves that they wear around their neck. For a big chunk of the Thai population that is their social security, their savings for a rainy day, their insurance.

 

 

Fail...there won't be enough money in Khun Somsak's (the gold shop owner) bank acct to redeem even a fraction of the gold he has sold over the years

Unless these poor thais sell it for peanuts to various other buyers.

They will probably will.

Keep in mind that the poorest of the poor have no gold whatsoever

That would easily be a million ppl

25 minutes ago, Brewster67 said:

About one in ten people in Thailand legally own a gun. There are more than six million registered guns in a country with a population of 66.7 million.^[1] Small Arms Survey estimates that the total number of guns, both licit and illicit, held by Thai civilians in 2017 is 10,300,000
 

And I own 10 guns.   What's the point?  You lookin' at me?  ????

2 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

Yes thats right, if it gets really bad, temples become soup kitchens and shelter. However, I dont think its that bad just yet.

No, it's not

I'll give it another month.

A surprise cure (not a vaccine) will restore the situation quickly

We can only hope

"1157644-will-westerners-be-targeted-for-theft"

 

I'm not worried...I've got a policy where I need to see the dead buffalo in person before I spring for a new one...ha ha

Those of us who live in a community and are considered part of that community will have far less to worry about than those who do not.

 

If you live an isolated existence, never interact with your neighbours, are not friends with your Thai neighbours, you are going to be more vulnerable.

 

Bearing those points top of mind, first and foremost, I'd say that those who live in farming villages, where locals tend to be very resourceful, very community oriented, will have far less to worry about than those who live in big towns and cities. In villages people look out for each other and if you live in a village now, be sure to contribute when you can.

 

The most important catalyst for theft will be lack of food. farming communities tend to have plenty of it. towns and cities can have shortages.

 

If you live in a condo in a town it is likely that you are anonymous. You will be a more likely target.

 

For everyone I'd advise not to flaunt your wealth (if you have it) in any way just now.

 

 

I suspect opportunistic robberies are inevitable and surely already happening. If possible it's best to travel in populated areas. We don't have to worry about going out at night since the curfew stops that anyway. As a last resort one could start violently coughing with lots of spittle and the would be assailants will surely flee.

17 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

Yes thats right, if it gets really bad, temples become soup kitchens and shelter. However, I dont think its that bad just yet.

And from where do the temples get their food?

7 minutes ago, Vigilante said:

Fail...there won't be enough money in Khun Somsak's (the gold shop owner) bank acct to redeem even a fraction of the gold he has sold over the years

Unless these poor thais sell it for peanuts to various other buyers.

They will probably will.

Keep in mind that the poorest of the poor have no gold whatsoever

That would easily be a million ppl

The price of gold is at record highs, if you sell gold you will get the record high price. It has nothing to do with the bank account of the retail gold shop, as they buy and sell on the broader wholesale gold market. If a retail shop buys gold one day, the next day he wholesales it (for a profit) then has money in his pocket to buy gold the next day. 

People all over the world hold gold because it keeps its value, can be easily exchanged.

6 minutes ago, stouricks said:

And from where do the temples get their food?

From the people.... lol.

 

I also thought the same....

 

the monks beg for food to feed themselves as it is. the people can have the leftovers after 11am. ????

 

1 minute ago, Brewster67 said:

From the people.... lol.

 

I also thought the same....

 

the monks beg for food to feed themselves as it is. the people can have the leftovers after 11am. ????

 

The monks do not particularly BEG for the food. The silly villagers, who live hand to mouth (ooops, no mask then) and do not have a pot in which to urinate, give massive amounts whenever there is a Buddah day or something like that. Common Sense is not in the Thai dictionary, as is Food Hygeine.

13 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

The price of gold is at record highs, if you sell gold you will get the record high price. It has nothing to do with the bank account of the retail gold shop, as they buy and sell on the broader wholesale gold market. If a retail shop buys gold one day, the next day he wholesales it (for a profit) then has money in his pocket to buy gold the next day. 

People all over the world hold gold because it keeps its value, can be easily exchanged.

Partly right, but 99% of all owned gold doesn't even exist. In fact for every ounce of real gold in existence, there are thousands of ounces on paper that have not even been mined yet... they are called 'futures contracts'... It is a complete scam.

 

Did you also know that for every real barrel of oil pulled out of the ground, there are 65,000 barrels on paper?

 

the worldwide ponzi scheme being run from Wall Street and the City of London is going to crash and when it does, it is going to crash BIG.... Maybe this is what all this COVID-19 hype is about.... A scapegoat to take the blame away from the true culprits when the global economy finally comes down.

 

'It wasn't us... it was that virus thing'...

16 minutes ago, stouricks said:

And from where do the temples get their food?

Government, corporations, well off individuals. Its not a difficult equation, if 7/11 donates food and feeds the population, the population wont be robbing the 7/11 later that day. If somchai who owns the biggest house in the village helps the wat feed the village, then the village wont be robbing his house. If the government sends a pallet of rice to every temple etc etc.

Thieves are usually cowards  and always pick on the weakest first.. (who ever that now be ,,easy pickings)...So don't act like a victim and always be aware of your surroundings...If you walk around like a victims odds are you will become one .... walk tall walk safe  ???? 

Of course when reading the comments here we have to make adjustments based the natural tendencies and biases of the people who tend to comment here.

 

I’m fairly confident crime will go down and you will be safer. 

Not sure where this idea comes from that westerners are the rich elite sitting at the top of the heap. And will be the first to be robbed come the financial apocalypse. A large portion of the Thai population are doing quiet well and are better off than most expats. 

I suppose if you are funding a bargirl, her family and a buffalo, with your 40k a month pension, its easy to see yourself as the rich western benefactor. 

Not everyone is the big fish in a small pond in an issan village.

Most expats I know live alongside Thais, not at a financial level above them, My Thai neighbour in Jomtien owns his house, has a management job, drives a BMW. He would probably be a better option for a robbery than my place.

What has not been mentioned here yet is the plight of non-Thais. IE Burmese.

They won't get any handouts.

Whilst I live on a moo Baan with security many people here do not, and half a mile down the road is a camp made of corogated iron that houses Burmese housebuilders and their families that are already living in squalor.

These people have no work and no money, the combination could be lethal.

Much more so than the worry of Thais robbing us, I worry and feel sorry for them, but where are they going to get the money to feed themselves from? You think Land and Houses will? No.

They won't have much choice but to steal IMO

We live in a a largish house surrounded by larger houses,all owned by Thais who are far far richer than me, we were broken into about 10 years ago ,so were all our neighbours,the thief just escaped with his life as one guy chased him down the street shooting at him , he was arrested and put in prison(the thief),the local police chief then invited us all to the police station to apologise and parade the thief in front of us ,anyway every house around us now has loads of dogs ,i someone even f- rts  in our street they all start barking . so heres hoping i am not targeted.????