Some numbers to put things into perspective

[Brunolem]

35 minutes ago, chessman said:

I am not scared of the current numbers. I am scared of the graphs that show the increase in cases and deaths. You can't look at those and say 'nothing to see here, let's ignore it'.

A deeper analysis shows that these cases and deaths are concentrated in a small number of countries, as explained in the opening post.

 

If these 8 countries were all in Africa, for example, nobody would care, but because they are part of the top economies of the world, it makes headlines...for good reasons by the way, because these same countries are well on the way to destroy the world's economy...

Edited April 7, 2020 by Brunolem

[chessman]

4 hours ago, Assurancetourix said:

The numbers are relentless; they don't lie.
98% of people with Covid-19 recover.
which leaves 2% of people who die from it.
(until then, am I good?)
In Italy and I don't see why it would be different in the other countries, 90% of these 2% are people at the end of their life who already have 1 to 3 serious pathologies.
People who stopped working a long time ago.

So I cannot understand why we are shutting down countries for a ridiculously low number of people who will die from this virus.
France did not stop working in 1969 when in the month of December alone 25,000 people died from the flu.
Politics  sacrifice 99.9% of workers who would rather go to work than mop up in isolation completely useless at home.

2% of Italy is more than a million people. It's killing much more than 2% of the people who have it in Italy and they are the country of the worst affected who have tested the most. We should sacrifice them? When you look at the graphs I have posted showing the increases in cases and deaths, what do you think the answer is? I'm genuinely curious.

[Logosone]

23 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Long after sars cov 2 dies out and herd immunity makes it a thing of the past the flu will carry on killing 400,000 every year without a single tear being shed by those that say "but this is not the flu it's much worse".

The influenza viruses, but also this new coronavirus family has great potential. Let's not forget how deadly SARS was. Then MERS. Now SARS Cov2. We will have this new coronavirus family maybe coming with new siblings. In any event the clear and present danger these viruses represent will not be underestimated going forward.

 

Yes, maybe vaccines will come that are highly effective and banish all these viruses. But maybe not.

 

In which case, the danger of viruses will increase. 

 

Cue massive spending on health care, regular lockdowns, economic downtime. More focus on viruses, less spending and focus on other illnesses. And humans have a million illnesses they can die from.

 

Anyway, enjoy your dinner.

 

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Logosone

[FarFlungFalang]

10 minutes ago, chessman said:

When you look at the graphs I posted above, what do you think? I'm genuinely curious.

What I think when I look at these graphs (which I have done several times a day) is that there are large numbers of untested positives that will bring the death rates down quite considerably and that with antibody testing which is likely to follow will give us a clearer picture of this outbreak.What that picture is remains to be seen as I believe it's way to early just yet to draw any conclusions about the severity of this outbreak.I also think that as long as this virus doesn't mutate the same way the flu viruses do then this is expected (by me) to be a one off event as I've alluded in my post,and that in the long run the flu will end up being more severe than this current outbreak of Sars Cov 2 virus.That's what I think and that's my guess and I will wait and see if I'm proved right or wrong.So do you agree?Is it too early to say?

[Brunolem]

4 minutes ago, chessman said:

2% of Italy is more than a million people. It's killing much more than 2% of the people who have it in Italy and they are the country of the worst affected who have tested the most. We should sacrifice them? When you look at the graphs I have posted showing the increases in cases and deaths, what do you think the answer is? I'm genuinely curious.

Italy has a very special way of counting the deaths by coronavirus, as has been explained in a number of articles.

 

In short, anyone who dies, having the coronavirus, is counted as killed by the virus, never mind if he or she was in a coma before being infected, or in terminal cancer, or victim of a stroke, or a heart failure, you name it...

[chessman]

8 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

A deeper analysis shows that these cases and deaths are concentrated in a small number of countries, as explained in the opening post.

 

If these 8 countries were all in Africa, for example, nobody would care, but because they are part of the top economies of the world, it makes headlines...for good reasons by the way, because these same countries are well on the way to destroy the world's economy...

Right, but other countries are naturally fearful because the disease could rip through their populations too. Saying these numbers put things into perspective and then people using them to suggest governments are overreacting is wrong, governments are not reacting to the raw numbers of cases/deaths... they are reacting to the increases.

[cornishcarlos]

26 minutes ago, chessman said:

Do you think these graphs are scaremongering and manipulation? I'm genuinely curious

 

About 0.5% mortality rate, no they are realistic... 

[chessman]

8 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Italy has a very special way of counting the deaths by coronavirus, as has been explained in a number of articles.

 

In short, anyone who dies, having the coronavirus, is counted as killed by the virus, never mind if he or she was in a coma before being infected, or in terminal cancer, or victim of a stroke, or a heart failure, you name it...

Right, It's not going to be the 11%+ mortality rate that it shows now. It could still be way over 2% in Italy though... That's a lot of people.

[Brunolem]

1 minute ago, chessman said:

Right, It's not going to be the 11%+ mortality rate that it shows now. It could still be way over 2% in Italy though... That's a lot of people.

Sure is, but keep in mind that the average patient killed by the virus in Italy is about 80 years old...

[Assurancetourix]

24 minutes ago, chessman said:

2% of Italy is more than a million people.

If the 60 million Italians are contaminated, it will be counted,

never forgetting that it will be 1 million people aged at least 80 years, so already at the end of life for the vast majority of them .

It will not affect the children or the lifeblood of the country.

[Number 6]

7 hours ago, xylophone said:

I was trying to explain that the chances of catching the virus are low, as I am one in a population of 68 million, then I would have an slim chance of dying from it here if indeed there were just a few thousand deaths.

It doesn't work that way but thanks for playing.

[Brunolem]

19 minutes ago, chessman said:

Right, but other countries are naturally fearful because the disease could rip through their populations too. Saying these numbers put things into perspective and then people using them to suggest governments are overreacting is wrong, governments are not reacting to the raw numbers of cases/deaths... they are reacting to the increases.

Of course and I fully support measures restricting movements between countries.

 

But, after about 3 months, it is becoming clear that certain populations (caucasians) are more at risk than others.

 

It also appears that the climate is playing a role, with much less cases in hot countries than in cooler ones.

 

Thus, each country should play according to the cards it holds, rather than to the cards held by others...

Edited April 7, 2020 by Brunolem

[chessman]

18 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

What I think when I look at these graphs (which I have done several times a day) is that there are large numbers of untested positives that will bring the death rates down quite considerably and that with antibody testing which is likely to follow will give us a clearer picture of this outbreak.What that picture is remains to be seen as I believe it's way to early just yet to draw any conclusions about the severity of this outbreak.I also think that as long as this virus doesn't mutate the same way the flu viruses do then this is expected (by me) to be a one off event as I've alluded in my post,and that in the long run the flu will end up being more severe than this current outbreak of Sars Cov 2 virus.That's what I think and that's my guess and I will wait and see if I'm proved right or wrong.So do you agree?Is it too early to say?

I think there are a large number of untested positives, I also think there are a large number of covid deaths going unreported. I read an article that said that there were 40% more funerals in Jakarta in March than any other month since records began. I have also read articles that have looked at activity in Wuhan crematoriums and made estimates of the number of deaths that are 10 times + higher than the official Chinese figures. I am optimistic that countries like Spain and Italy have turned the corner now and the cases and deaths will continue to go down. I think this is happening because of the strict measures.

 

I completely agree that testing is really important, people keep talking about vaccines being the only way but when they have cheap and effective point-of-care tests (antibody or otherwise) then they will be able to do the kind of aggressive contact tracing that they did in South Korea and that will really help. They should have good tests a long time before they have a vaccine (if they ever manage to get a vaccine)

 

I hope that in the end it will be the equivalent (or lower) in terms of deaths than a really bad flu year, but if it does then it will be because of the social distancing measures put in place. Governments can't control the mortality rate but they could control the R0 rate and we can see this beginning to work.

 

 

[rumak]

5 hours ago, Assurancetourix said:

The numbers are relentless; they don't lie.
98% of people with Covid-19 recover.
which leaves 2% of people who die from it.
(until then, am I good?)
In Italy and I don't see why it would be different in the other countries, 90% of these 2% are people at the end of their life who already have 1 to 3 serious pathologies.
People who stopped working a long time ago.

So I cannot understand why we are shutting down countries for a ridiculously low number of people who will die from this virus.
France did not stop working in 1969 when in the month of December alone 25,000 people died from the flu.
Politics  sacrifice 99.9% of workers who would rather go to work than mop up in isolation completely useless at home.

oh, they love to laugh and dismiss us as "conspiracy theorists" .   

 

Oh, Lord, can this really be the end ?   To be stuck inside our homes

while they give it to us in the rear end

 

I wonder what new regulations are coming after this event .   forced inoculations with chips

secretly  implanted ?    

 

[spidermike007]

Now, we have seen a consistent drop over the last five days. Around 100 cases a day, four and five days ago, then, 81, then 51, and now 31. This barely existent virus in Thailand is disappearing fast.

 

There is a big difference between the 366 new cases in Thailand, and 10 new deaths in the past 5 days, and approximately 150,000 new cases and over 7,000 new deaths in the US.

 

I double down on my assertion that the virus appears to be leveling off here. Just look at the numbers.

 

And for those of you who are skeptical of the numbers keep in mind that they stayed at 100-200 total cases for weeks, before they started ticking up. So, there does appear to be some accounting of the caseloads. Just as in the US, the testing is still limited. But, my assertion of the positive effects of the heat remain in place. Alot will assert fake numbers, lack of testing, etc. Believe what you choose to believe. This is not the Zombie Apocalypse. It may be in the US, and parts of Europe, but NOT HERE.

 

They also pointed out that the “virus is highly sensitive to high temperature.” 

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/higher-temperatures-affect-survival-of-new-coronavirus-pathologist-says/700800

[Traubert]

Copy & paste Mike, please dont.

[bwpage3]

Thailand is not known to tell the truth in any matters that can affect the tourist dollars.

 

Only after the international community reported in, did Thailand start reporting cases.

 

The government cannot be trusted to tell the truth, however, how they are all happy because a 1.2 trillion baht budget will be divided up and put in politician's pockets making them all millionaires on the world stage.

 

There are 8 billion people in the world. CV has 75,000 deaths. 

 

Due the math. There are much worse killers than this virus.

 

 

[mauGR1]

37 minutes ago, rumak said:

I wonder what new regulations are coming after this event .   forced inoculations with chips

secretly  implanted ?    

 

Yep, and maybe a cashless society, so we can sleep better at night

[chessman]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

after about 3 months, it is becoming clear that certain populations (caucasians) are more at risk than others.

 

It also appears that the climate is playing a role, with much less cases in hot countries than in cooler ones.

My instinct is that you are correct, or there is another factor that is playing a big part that is not yet known about. But I wouldn't say it is clear, and any country that decides to stop social distancing measures is going to be taking a huge risk. There are lots of countries with lesser health services and few ICU beds that might be even worse affected,

[chessman]

26 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

There are 8 billion people in the world. CV has 75,000 deaths.

Look at the graphs. It is not the number of deaths, it is the rate of increase. We can all spout conspiracy theories about greedy politicians but the fact remains that something had to be done.

[Brunolem]

14 minutes ago, chessman said:

My instinct is that you are correct, or there is another factor that is playing a big part that is not yet known about. But I wouldn't say it is clear, and any country that decides to stop social distancing measures is going to be taking a huge risk. There are lots of countries with lesser health services and few ICU beds that might be even worse affected,

I am fine with social distancing and also wearing masks, but bringing the economy to a stop goes way to far.

 

This is where the cure becomes much worse than the sickness...

[Brunolem]

34 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Yep, and maybe a cashless society, so we can sleep better at night

We will know soon enough what they have in store for us.

 

Already yesterday the French finance minister talked about the economic collapse.

 

With the pandemic slowly receding, the politicians and the media are going to start focusing the discourse on the economy, in order to prepare the populations for the next restrictions, and this is when they will show their cards.

 

Still under the shock, and so more easily manipulated, the populations will be asked to make sacrifices...temporary of course...

 

[Assurancetourix]

4 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

temporary of course...

Like the creation of the sticker at the beginning of the 1950s in France, which was to be very temporary and which was only deleted a few years ago;
this period only lasted 60 years ...

[mauGR1]

3 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

We will know soon enough what they have in store for us.

 

Already yesterday the French finance minister talked about the economic collapse.

 

With the pandemic slowly receding, the politicians and the media are going to start focusing the discourse on the economy, in order to prepare the populations for the next restrictions, and this is when they will show their cards.

 

Still under the shock, and so more easily manipulated, the populations will be asked to make sacrifices...temporary of course...

 

Well, as much as i dislike the politicians, most of them, i guess, are confused and afraid as the rest of us.

Probably they know by now that saying "let them eat cake" is not working very well.

[chessman]

33 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

I am fine with social distancing and also wearing masks, but bringing the economy to a stop goes way to far.

This is fine to say in theory but what are the specifics?

 

The economy doesn't stop, currently 80%ish of economic activity is still happening. What do you think should be changed? What economic activity that is currently stopped do you think should be allowed to continue? How much difference would that make? Some of the worst affected industries such as restaurants, bars, travel related stuff... I think they would be in trouble with no government restrictions.

 

it is of course impossible to know but I think it is likely that letting the virus infect (almost) everyone would be much worse for the economy, especially in the medium and long term.

 

 

[Brunolem]

27 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Well, as much as i dislike the politicians, most of them, i guess, are confused and afraid as the rest of us.

Probably they know by now that saying "let them eat cake" is not working very well.

Western politicians made the mistake to follow China, forgetting that in China the party micromanages everything. 

 

They should have let the medical authorities handle the problem, while providing assistance when requested. 

 

This reminds me of the cave story last year, which was very well handed, because the cave divers, and not the government, were in charge. 

 

Now we arrive in absurd situations, such as in France where Pr Raoult, the highest authority in the world for this type of disease, is not listened to, because the president is surrounded by people, including doctors, who have spent most of their lives weaseling in politics (like Dr Fauci in the US). 

[mauGR1]

1 minute ago, Brunolem said:

Western politicians made the mistake to follow China, forgetting that in China the party micromanages everything. 

 

They should have let the medical authorities handle the problem, while providing assistance when requested. 

 

This reminds me of the cave story last year, which was very well handed, because the cave divers, and not the government, were in charge. 

 

Now we arrive in absurd situations, such as in France where Pr Raoult, the highest authority in the world for this type of disease, is not listened to, because the president is surrounded by people, including doctors, who have spent most of their lives weaseling in politics (like Dr Fauci in the US). 

I knew that soon or later we would disagree on something, it seems to me that the "medical authorities" and the politicians are going in the same direction.

For some reason, i tend to believe the scientists who are going against the mainstream media, but no worries, i'm always been a contrarian ????

[Brunolem]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

 

The economy doesn't stop, currently 80%ish of economic activity is still happening. 

Where? 

 

Certainly not here in Thailand... I went to Ubon today for some shopping... the city is asleep... there is maybe 25% of the usual activity. 

 

In Europe, satellite pictures show that most of the atmospheric pollution has disappeared, which wouldn't be the case if the industry was working at 80%.

 

In the US, Ford and GM have closed all their factories, which means that all their suppliers have done the same... Boeing has also stopped production... Las Vegas is dead... 

 

 

[Brunolem]

2 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

I knew that soon or later we would disagree on something, it seems to me that the "medical authorities" and the politicians are going in the same direction.

 

The doctors who have access to the top politicians are not the top of the crop, and many among the latter disagree with the former (I opened a thread about this last week). 

 

For example, Pr Raoult is against the lock down/stay at home, and recommend the use of chloroquine, which is rejected by the French government and its medical advisors. 

 

 

[chessman]

4 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Now we arrive in absurd situations, such as in France where Pr Raoult, the highest authority in the world for this type of disease, is not listened to, because the president is surrounded by people, including doctors, who have spent most of their lives weaseling in politics

This seems to be over simplifying things. He had promising results in a very small trial. When the trial was repeated in a more systematic way the results were disappointing. Or are the media lying about this too?