Some numbers to put things into perspective

[Bangkok Barry]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

So is there any way of judging the strength of an economy? It's all just smoke and mirrors? Why are we arguing about GDP when it's all fake anyway.

 

It's a game that some use to generate profits. Stock markets have their worst day in decades, and a day or two later have their best in history. Then repeat, so more profits can be made. Nothing at all has changed - business outlook the same, the virus worsening but the markets rocket back up. It is indeed smoke and mirrors, with nothing based on reality.

[Krataiboy]

On 4/7/2020 at 10:53 AM, 2long said:

Except that Thailand was the first country to get reported infections outside of China and that Thailand receives millions of visitors from China, especially in January and February.

True, but the overwhelming majority of Chinese cases were confined to just one city (Wuhan) and most of the Communist state's 23 provinces escaped virtually unscathed.

[Bangkok Barry]

3 minutes ago, armadillo215 said:

The coronavirus traveled all over the world from Wuhan China, but it did not reach Beijing or Shanghai or other major cities in China. Can anyone explain how is that possible?

There are so many questions, after all, where it all started, in China, the Chinese stock market did not collapse, but the American and European markets did, and when those markets collapsed, the Chinese bought a lot.

All roads lead back to China

1. They created a virus for which they already had an antidote.

2. They purposely spread the virus for financial gain.

3. There is a clear demonstration of efficiency to such an extent that they built hospitals in a few days. To build so many hospitals they had to be prepared with organized projects, for example, with the ordering of equipment, the hiring of labor, the water and sewerage network, the prefabricated building materials and the storage in an impressive volume. Everything happened so fast that everyone was speechless.

4. They caused chaos in the world, beginning with Europe and the rest of the western worlds.

5. Quickly decimating the economies of dozens of countries.

6. Stop production and manufacturing lines in factories and primary production in dozens of countries.

7. Causing the stock markets to crash and then they bought stocks, bonds and companies at bargain prices.

8. They then quickly gained control of the epidemic in their country. After all, they were ready and he was never really out of control.

9. In all this, they managed to lower the price of basic products, including the price of oil.

10. Now they are going back to mass production while the rest of the world is stopped.

Also note how quickly Chinese unions activated to "hoard" purchases of bus cargo to regional shopping centers across Australia, stripping our shelves of toilet paper and staple foods.

It happened before most of us knew what was happening, even before we knew what the Coronavirus was.

 

And how will China now sell to economies that you believe they've caused to collapse, with many only having money left for essentials. That in turn will severely damage their own economy, surely.

[armadillo215]

1 minute ago, Bangkok Barry said:

And how will China now sell to economies that you believe they've caused to collapse, with many only having money left for essentials. That in turn will severely damage their own economy, surely.

Comment not even worth a response...Only looking for a tiff...

Sad people on TV can't just have a back and forth without judgement...

[UbonThani]

18 minutes ago, chessman said:

So what is the 'Bangkok Barry' solution?

 

Remember - it is not the cases and deaths you mention above that are scaring governments. It is the exponential growth.

Tb vaccine

If trials show it works

No dramas

[1FinickyOne]

1 hour ago, Assurancetourix said:

When quoting a member you ust use the whole sentence and not part of it otherwise the meaning is completely different.
Please respect this .

 

I wrote :

 

"I wonder why all this end of the world cinema.

I wonder what is really playing out there, behind the sick and their respirators: are we playing the Great War to better mask the great depression that is coming? Is this an economic war to prepare for the tilting of empires and the collapse of the West? "

ok... here is the whole post, not just a sentence... since you do not eat seafood... maybe you just had some bad food [insert whatever food you like - I am easy] 

 

The implication is that your negative and somewhat preposterous conspiracy theory type ideas might just be the result of a bad meal... I hope you feel better tomorrow, if the 'deep state' doesn't come for you for figuring out the truth... 

[Bangkok Barry]

8 minutes ago, armadillo215 said:

11 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

And how will China now sell to economies that you believe they've caused to collapse, with many only having money left for essentials. That in turn will severely damage their own economy, surely.

Comment not even worth a response...Only looking for a tiff...

Sad people on TV can't just have a back and forth without judgement...

Is that the only answer you can come with? Which is none at all. You have accused China of instigating the virus and the breakdown of the world economy outside of China, so they can take over the production of goods that other countries will no longer be able to produce. So my question was a reasonable one, surely.

By the way, the oil price drop is because of a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Nothing to do with China. It was on the news. Maybe you missed it.

[chessman]

7 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

Isn't there supposed to be a leveling off soon? If that doesn't happen, although there are signs that it is, then is the time to put on panic measures. At the moment, the cure is looking to be worse than the disease. As for Thailand, someone on another thread raised this, which I've expanded:

 

Less than 30 deaths in Thailand from the virus in nearly two months, but the country and normal life have to stop. Curfew, international airports closed to all but emergency flights, most businesses shut down, hundreds of thousands out of work and with no income.

Also in Thailand, 30 deaths on the road each DAY, and nothing happens.

The reason it is going to level off soon (we all hope) is because of the social distancing measures! if there were no measures then most people would catch it! If that happens there is a good chance the health care systems of the world would collapse and it could be economically more damaging than what is happening now with a lot more people dying.

 

The Thai government look at those graphs, look what is happening in other countries and take extreme measures to stop it. They are not looking at the current numbers, they are looking at the growth and the potential growth in cases and deaths. If numbers keep on going down in April then by May they will probably start opening things up again... and the economic impact won't be as severe compared to what would have happened if the virus had spread like it has in Europe and the US.

 

They should do more about road deaths here but the number is stable. If the number of road deaths was doubling every 4 days then they would take extreme measures like banning private vehicles.

 

 

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

Simple math example

 

1. Assume you now have 100,000 cases in a given population.

2. Now test 10,000.  Assume 10% of those die.

 

Q. What percentage of the remaining 90,000 will die?

 

Your answer may be, but many of the 90,000 have milder symptoms.

 

Q. What percentage of the milder untested cases will get worse over time?

 

A. It's complicated. Even more so because you are reasoning about a number 90,000 that may not even exist.

 

The 90,000 exist in your hypothetical because you called them cases by which I am to assume they are infected but not yet tested?So to me that's not complicated.Knowing the number of infected without testing is complicated because we would be guessing.To answer the question how many of the remaining 90,000 would die?Well assuming they are untested positives would be a guess.If I knew that they were asymptomatic and mild symptomatic cases then probably very few would die.If they were just a random selection of untested positives then the number of deaths would correlate with the 10% figure you mention provided all other variables were the same with regards to vulnerability was concerned.

  You are correct when you say the 90,000 may not exist and that my argument may be flawed because of it and I accept that all of my arguments about this outbreak are based entirely on dubious internet unverifiable information but I like arguments and debates and so I have chosen various bits of dubious unverifiable bits of info that support my arguments.In short I'm guessing.I'm guessing and I will wait and see if my guesses will be supported or debunked with interest and I fear I maybe waiting a long long time for verifiable data to not only be found but also released to the public as sometimes information is with held for your or mine or somebodies protection.

[AlienHermit66]

On 4/7/2020 at 1:33 PM, Brunolem said:

So you mean that Thailand is THE special case in the whole world... 

 

And neighboring countries (Vietnam, Cambodia...) didn't receive lots of Chinese in January and February... 

Japan also get millions and millions of Chinese tourists per year, and as of today, Japan has less than 100 deaths out of a population of roughly 126 million. The fatality rate here, and the number of critical cases is farcically low, so no, Thailand is not the only "special" or different country. The guy who presented the math made it clear that many countries (all but eight), had case rates and death rates far below the worldwide hyped numbers. 

[xylophone]

22 hours ago, Assurancetourix said:

The numbers are relentless; they don't lie.
98% of people with Covid-19 recover.
which leaves 2% of people who die from it.
(until then, am I good?)
In Italy and I don't see why it would be different in the other countries, 90% of these 2% are people at the end of their life who already have 1 to 3 serious pathologies.
People who stopped working a long time ago.

When all is said and done, the figures by Assurancetourix make sobering reading.....

 

The numbers are relentless; they don't lie………98% of people with Covid-19 recover. which leaves 2% of people who die from it.

 

In Italy, and I don't see why it would be different in the other countries, 90% of these 2% are people at the end of their life who already have 1 to 3 serious pathologies.

 

People who stopped working a long time ago.

[tonboy]

50 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

And how will China now sell to economies that you believe they've caused to collapse, with many only having money left for essentials. That in turn will severely damage their own economy, surely.

China have opened up Wuhan region already, and manufacturing capacities will be back to normal within a few weeks. Europe and USA will still be in lockdown, companies as well as countries (like Italy) will go bankrupt, the Europe countries are devided how to help each other and China and Russia already are stepping in to "help". Not long now before they will buy financial unstable companies and banks, and finally take over economies. 
Are you not seeing that the countries where the Chinese have a lot of influence, like Vietnam, Hong Kong, Cambodja and even Thailand are not much effected by this "killing" virus ? 

 

[Mayhem11]

What is patently clear about Covid19 is that none of the numbers make sense. Is it more serious than a seasonal flu? The answer to this is still unclear. The Covid 19 issue masks a more troubling development. It is used to justify the hysterical trampling of civil liberties by Governments worldwide? Once Governments and their factotums have tasted the power they now wield, will they relinquish it. 

[JackGats]

2 hours ago, AlQaholic said:

..... At what point do we stop care for a person and just let the person pass away by natural causes? I guess this is a dilemma encountered by health workers all the time.

Indeed. This crisis is one of how far Societies can afford to go to keep people alive beyond their natural lifetime. In ancient times this virus would have gone unnoticed because there would have been few people around to die from it.

[Ireland32]

On 4/7/2020 at 10:53 AM, 2long said:

Except that Thailand was the first country to get reported infections outside of China and that Thailand receives millions of visitors from China, especially in January and February.

I sat with 4 people from Wuhan in Chang Mai in Feb, Lucky 

[tifino]

2 minutes ago, Ireland32 said:

I sat with 4 people from Wuhan in Chang Mai in Feb, Lucky 

 

[Brunolem]

27 minutes ago, Mayhem11 said:

What is patently clear about Covid19 is that none of the numbers make sense. Is it more serious than a seasonal flu? The answer to this is still unclear. The Covid 19 issue masks a more troubling development. It is used to justify the hysterical trampling of civil liberties by Governments worldwide? Once Governments and their factotums have tasted the power they now wield, will they relinquish it. 

We might expect a combination of restricted freedom, notably when it will come to travelling, and a loss of purchasing power through "sacrifices" that will be asked for (imposed) to rebuilt the economy. 

 

And this will last for years... until the next crisis... 

[gamb00ler]

On 4/6/2020 at 9:10 PM, xylophone said:

I was trying to explain that the chances of catching the virus are low, as I am one in a population of 68 million, then I would have a slim chance of dying from it here if indeed there were just a few thousand deaths.

Someone could easily use the method you suggest to calculate the chance of dying from COVID19.  But, that method would calculate the AVERAGE chance of dying for the entire population that is being considered.  That would hardly tell you anything about your personal risk.

 

The precise chance of YOU dying depends on many, many factors.  What protective measure do you take, what underlying health problems do you have, how often are you exposed to the virus, etc.  The scientists have clearly identified many of the important factors and the impact on an individual's chance of dying from COVID19.  Just follow the experts advice if you wish to lower your personal risk.

[Zillod]

Last year USA managed to achieve just under 3 million deaths without Covid.  That's around 8000 per day.  They all died of something. (Nobody really dies of natural causes!)  It will be interesting to see what this years death statistic turns out to be with Covid.   If there  is an increase then we can blame Covid.  Of course we should also offset that with the shutdown of planned parenthood.

[xylophone]

31 minutes ago, gamb00ler said:

Someone could easily use the method you suggest to calculate the chance of dying from COVID19.  But, that method would calculate the AVERAGE chance of dying for the entire population that is being considered. 

Actually that is what I wanted but didn't explain myself clearly!!

[Maybole]

20 hours ago, chessman said:

I am not scared of the current numbers. I am scared of the graphs that show the increase in cases and deaths. You can't look at those and say 'nothing to see here, let's ignore it'.

By fiddling the scales a graph can be made more frightening or less.

[Brunolem]

5 hours ago, chessman said:

The 1.9% is for the world. It will be higher in the US.

 

If it is higher for the US, and MUCH higher for the eurozone (see below), who will be left to propell the global GDP higher?

 

. A survey by McKinsey & Company forecast that eurozone GDP will fall by 10.6% in 2020, and will not return to pre-crisis levels until the end of 2024.