Future outlook for Phuket

[oldcpu]

To speculate on the future is always problematic.

 

Wrt Phuket's future outlook, imagine a scenario where Phuket COVID-19 cases are eliminated.

 

What does that mean for Phuket?   I suspect within 2 weeks of no new COVID-19 cases in Phuket, the beaches, swimming pools, hotels and restaurants will be allowed to open, although likely many will not yet open.  Some may take this opportunity to upgrade their hotels/restaurants. Some may close permanently.

 

Masks?  After a few weeks of no COVID-19, I suspect there may for some TBD time be a requirement to wear masks, as there will be a fear new tourists will bring the virus back.

 

At what time will tourists be allowed into Thailand and specifically into Phuket?

 

Consider "if" Phuket is clean of COVID-19 but there are still many cases elsewhere in the world.   What will Phuket do?

 

I speculate it may divide countries into two, and possibly 3 categories:

 

(1) people coming from countries that have shown no new COVID-19 cases for 2 to 3 weeks can come into Thailand and no quarantine required

 

(2) people coming from some other countries with no new COVID-19 cases but don't yet meet the 2 to 3 week criteria, will be required to self quarantine for 2 weeks when entering Thailand

 

(3) people from all other countries with active COVID-19 cases not allowed entry to Thailand.

 

The above is speculative and obviously could be assessed/considered massively differently. Speculation is speculation.

 

That speculation thou, suggests to me that there will be a slow restart for tourism.  

 

Another speculation:  A possible 'game changer' would be a drug that 99% (or better) cures all symptoms.  If such a game changer came, then things could ramp up sooner.

 

Countries that have shown no new to minimal new COVID-19 cases are likely to be the 1st tourists to Thailand.  

 

How does one put a timeline to the above ?  With the risk of new infections causing a new wave to the pandemic, its difficult to predict a restart date - other than to speculate it could be slow restart - a lot dependent not only only Phuket, on Thailand, but also on the remainder of the world.

Edited April 11, 2020 by oldcpu

[stevenl]

20 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

To speculate on the future is always problematic.

 

Wrt Phuket's future outlook, imagine a scenario where Phuket COVID-19 cases are eliminated.

 

What does that mean for Phuket?   I suspect within 2 weeks of no new COVID-19 cases in Phuket, the beaches, swimming pools, hotels and restaurants will be allowed to open, although likely many will not yet open.  Some may take this opportunity to upgrade their hotels/restaurants. Some may close permanently.

 

Masks?  After a few weeks of no COVID-19, I suspect there may for some TBD time be a requirement to wear masks, as there will be a fear new tourists will bring the virus back.

 

At what time will tourists be allowed into Thailand and specifically into Phuket?

 

Consider "if" Phuket is clean of COVID-19 but there are still many cases elsewhere in the world.   What will Phuket do?

 

I speculate it may divide countries into two, and possibly 3 categories:

 

(1) people coming from countries that have shown no new COVID-19 cases for 2 to 3 weeks can come into Thailand and no quarantine required

 

(2) people coming from some other countries with no new COVID-19 cases but don't yet meet the 2 to 3 week criteria, will be required to self quarantine for 2 weeks when entering Thailand

 

(3) people from all other countries with active COVID-19 cases not allowed entry to Thailand.

 

The above is speculative and obviously could be assessed/considered massively differently. Speculation is speculation.

 

That speculation thou, suggests to me that there will be a slow restart for tourism.  

 

Another speculation:  A possible 'game changer' would be a drug that 99% (or better) cures all symptoms.  If such a game changer came, then things could ramp up sooner.

 

Countries that have shown no new to minimal new COVID-19 cases are likely to be the 1st tourists to Thailand.  

 

How does one put a timeline to the above ?  With the risk of new infections causing a new wave to the pandemic, its difficult to predict a restart date - other than to speculate it could be slow restart - a lot dependent not only only Phuket, on Thailand, but also on the remainder of the world.

A test with fast results is required. Not just for Phuket, but for travel worldwide.

[Tarukhtah]

As mentioned I also believe there will be a game changer. All "experts" claim a vaccination will be widely available within a year from now. It means, within a year virtually every one will be able to go and get vaccinated. I guess this definitely will improve somewhat situation.

The other game changer is that when the pandemy will be a bit controlled, the stocks of masks, disinfectant gels, respirators, i.e. all the healthcare equipment can be dramatically improved so also countries will be less scared of an outbreak. Also because probably the protocols will be refined.

However, I do not see any of those game changers happening within one year from now. And one year without income and ideas on what to live on is really long, long enough to shut down everything.

[Agusts]

3 hours ago, stevenl said:

A test with fast results is required. Not just for Phuket, but for travel worldwide.

There was just a report today on BBC about a massive production of test kits so small it can be used by anyone anywhere, result shown in 10min... ! Imagine if they had that in Jan in all the airports to test all travellers, no pandemic... !? 

[Tarukhtah]

Interesting. If they had enough of those, probably no pandemic? The other question is the price and availability, i.e. can they manufacture a whole new product from scratch in such a big amount that most of the population gets them frequently? Because they struggle to manufacture enough masks, enough respirators, enough disinfectant gel... which are well known products.

Also, need a lot of tests, not only one per person since getting tested negative today does not mean you won't get positive tomorrow, i.e. we would ideally need to get tested frequently.

The other thing that was rumored in some countries is that they will start expediting kind of, coronavirus-passed-certificate. i.e. for those who already passed it, the confinment will have more relaxed rules and are the ones that will start being allowed to go out etc. 

[oldcpu]

4 hours ago, Tarukhtah said:

As mentioned I also believe there will be a game changer. All "experts" claim a vaccination will be widely available within a year from now. It means, within a year virtually every one will be able to go and get vaccinated. I guess this definitely will improve somewhat situation.

The other game changer is that when the pandemy will be a bit controlled, the stocks of masks, disinfectant gels, respirators, i.e. all the healthcare equipment can be dramatically improved so also countries will be less scared of an outbreak. Also because probably the protocols will be refined.

However, I do not see any of those game changers happening within one year from now. And one year without income and ideas on what to live on is really long, long enough to shut down everything.

I confess to being skeptical wrt there being a vaccination, even in the next couple of years.   Already there are reports in the news of people who had COVID-19, were cured, and are now believed to have caught it again.  Of course this requires confirmation, but it is a concern as it brings into question as to whether a vaccination can be effective. If that is indeed the case, it may make it much more difficult for a developed vaccination to be truly effective and could take longer than any of the 'experts' hope for.

 

Hence possibly the best hope is for (1) countries to manage their COVID-19 to having no new cases (which will take time), (2) global development of a very rapid and highly reliable means for testing if one is infected and/or determine if one had COVID-19 in the past and/or if one is now a COVID-19 carrier, (3) highly effective medicine developed to treat symptoms and prevent deaths,  and (4) better means to manage COVID-19 cases, such as you suggest (better isolation facilities, better supplies of masks (with more accepted balanced use), more gels, respirators, etc ... )).

 

Like you, I don't believe all of that will happen any time soon.  Hence I speculate this could be managed by the methods I suggested in my earlier post, and I while I think there may be a partial re-opening of Phuket this year ...  I believe any return to tourism in Phuket may very well be limited in numbers for a while (compared to the past).

Edited April 11, 2020 by oldcpu

[soi3eddie]

@thaibutty I feel for you in your situation. 

Travel anywhere in the world is not going to restart until mid-June at earliest and that is only for essential re-locations. Tourism will be zero anywhere until at least Christmas 2020 and then obly the brave and wealthy in limited numbers. None of us know what reaction the Thai government will have and I suspect it will a phased permission of entry. Firstly they will allow the Chinese back, Then Russians and Indians. After that Europeans, North Americans and Antipodeans. There may well be hurdles to travel such as health insurance and health certificates stating that travellers are free from Covid-19. Possibly, the Thais will realise that the economy here is <deleted> unless they allow free entry to all. Nobody knows.

 

If I was you in your situation I'd look at your figures and work out your best options financially and go with that now based on current situation. This most likely means a departure from Phuket. If you can capitalize on Chinese, Russian or Indian tourism then consider that as a stay put option.

 

I wish you and your family well.

[theonetrueaussie]

On 4/10/2020 at 5:43 PM, Sharp said:

Its a tricky one to call as already stated it's a global crash so holidays will be for the very few in the near future .

 

BUT..... the Chinese will be the first boots on the ground and in mass I'm betting also sooner rather than later so if your intention is to hang on I'm there prepare your business accordingly for the demographic arriving at the airports  

It will really depend...This whole crisis has made many many countries move their production away from china and once the pandemic is over many countries are already talking about holding china responsible. Depending on the repercussions and how many countries completely move away from china will depend on how hard the chinese are hit after this virus.

 

I don't see phuket recovering this year at all and probably not till end of next year the way things are going. 

[chrisandsu]

13 hours ago, theonetrueaussie said:

It will really depend...This whole crisis has made many many countries move their production away from china and once the pandemic is over many countries are already talking about holding china responsible. Depending on the repercussions and how many countries completely move away from china will depend on how hard the chinese are hit after this virus.

 

I don't see phuket recovering this year at all and probably not till end of next year the way things are going. 

I agree . If no one is buying China’s junk and we stop investing there and letting them steal out intellectual property they too will have no money to travel . The tourist economy is dead for at the very least a year . Phuket’s been known for quite a few years now as not being great value for money - now with lots of price conscious travellers the powers that be had better pull their heads out of their collective <deleted> .

[Agusts]

As regard to Phuket not being that busy , early Jan this year, first week or so, before the virus news broke, all beaches and streets were full of tourists, it was almost impossible to walk around without bumping to them, Bangla was busiest I have seen for the last 7 or 8 years... ! 

 

If they were well-spending visitors I have no idea, but boots on the ground, it was fuller than ever..., but the trend here has been, prices going up, service level and quality going down, so eventually things would have balanced out anyway. But knowing Thai approach and greed, when things open again, it will probably be worse, pay more get less ... !?

 

[Rancid]

Regarding international travel, as the numbers drop to zero in many countries, what they will not do is allow people from countries suspected of still having the virus in and will restrict travel to same by requiring isolation on return. China has already indicated it is far from welcoming even Chinese back in.

If Thailand is clear then travel here will be approved, if not...

As such it is all up in the air, really depends how quick covid dies out. The irony of course for tourist countries is that flattening the curve actually extends the virus shelf life much much longer, plus of course then getting 2nd and 3rd waves. As this is the approach most countries took this could go on for a long time.

Whether to pack it in and restart, or wait it out, tough call.

[Tarukhtah]

@Rancid what do you mean about this part of "flattening the curve actually extends the virus shelf much much longer" ?

Coming back to the outlook of Phuket, it seems clear it won't be the same any soon. Whether it "recovers" or not also depends for "whom". Some business might keep operating almost before the outbreak whether other will totally, or are already totally closed. Also wondering... Phuket lives greatly on tourism, but aren't any other industries also more developed than in other provinces? i.e. The fact the Phuket lives greatly on tourism mean that other provinces in Thailand with low tourism and low in any kind of industry will be at a better position? Probably no, right? i.e. in Phuket probably other business and infrastructure are more developed than in some Isaan provinces. So in comparison to other Thai provinces, would Phuket + Bangkok + Chiang Mai be better off after the outbreak?

[Badrabbit]

Only thing that worries me is the exchange rate, if it stays at around 40 I can manage but if it dips a lot lower it will be very difficult, I've not seen or experienced any hate towards me, I'm stuck here whatever happens as have nothing to return to in the UK!

[daveAustin]

18 hours ago, theonetrueaussie said:

It will really depend...This whole crisis has made many many countries move their production away from china and once the pandemic is over many countries are already talking about holding china responsible. Depending on the repercussions and how many countries completely move away from china will depend on how hard the chinese are hit after this virus.

 

I don't see phuket recovering this year at all and probably not till end of next year the way things are going. 

Too right. I think that Great Wall should dismantle and rebuilt to enclose the entire place, minus Tibet. Short of that, firms moving their businesses away from there would be a positive step. We might all end up paying more for products, but preferable to selling one's soul!

[wasabi]

All US and European manufacturing should be brought out of China. They argue you can't beat the cheap labor in China. Well after spending trillions to bail out our nations how cheap is that cheap labor? I bet every dollar saved for the past several decades was lost in a few months on the government's dime. We are dealing with rancid eating and poor hygiene intermixed with that labor that is unlikely to change and could easily spur another pandemic. Most of that labor is heading towards robots anyway.

Edited April 12, 2020 by wasabi

[WalkingOrders]

I think Phuket will fair best out of all major tourist spots in Thailand. Its beautiful and has lots to offer. If planes get restarted, and its not to cumbersome to get a tourist visa, I think recovery will be swift.

[3NUMBAS]

give it 10 years and they may see a trickle back but who will still be flying by then and boeing and airbus will have gone bust and lay in ruins

[3NUMBAS]

the chinese testing kits sold to the uk dont work and uk wants its money back

[WalkingOrders]

On 4/10/2020 at 11:32 PM, madmitch said:

 

Phuket has recovered from localised problems in the past, notably the 2004 tsunami, but this is a global problem and it doesnt matter whether Phuket is ready for guests for the next high season, its a case of whether the guests will be ready to come. 

 

Personally I think it'll be a while before most tourists return, and many never will, but the Russians are an interesting case. There are still a few around and many saw it out right until the last minute before leaving, unlike other nationalities who left long before (sensibly!!!). I also had emails from Russians very disappointed that they were forced to cancel, and this was as recent as two weeks ago! I even took a Russian booking last week for November!

I gotta say... I don't hear Russians cry whinge and whine much about things... they seem to be a strong resilient people who can throw a great party. I need some more Russian friends... I like these people... everywhere I go.

[chrisandsu]

46 minutes ago, wasabi said:

All US and European manufacturing should be brought out of China. They argue you can't beat the cheap labor in China. Well after spending trillions to bail out our nations how cheap is that cheap labor? I bet every dollar saved for the past several decades was lost in a few months on the government's dime. We are dealing with rancid eating and poor hygiene intermixed with that labor that is unlikely to change and could easily spur another pandemic. Most of that labor is heading towards robots anyway.

Just let them keep the industries that heavily pollute .

[connda]

[Gweiloman]

8 hours ago, chrisandsu said:

I agree . If no one is buying China’s junk and we stop investing there and letting them steal out intellectual property they too will have no money to travel . The tourist economy is dead for at the very least a year . Phuket’s been known for quite a few years now as not being great value for money - now with lots of price conscious travellers the powers that be had better pull their heads out of their collective <deleted> .

 

3 hours ago, daveAustin said:

Too right. I think that Great Wall should dismantle and rebuilt to enclose the entire place, minus Tibet. Short of that, firms moving their businesses away from there would be a positive step. We might all end up paying more for products, but preferable to selling one's soul!

 

1 hour ago, wasabi said:

All US and European manufacturing should be brought out of China. They argue you can't beat the cheap labor in China. Well after spending trillions to bail out our nations how cheap is that cheap labor? I bet every dollar saved for the past several decades was lost in a few months on the government's dime. We are dealing with rancid eating and poor hygiene intermixed with that labor that is unlikely to change and could easily spur another pandemic. Most of that labor is heading towards robots anyway.

Talk is cheap. If you dare, put your money where your mouth is and start by getting rid of all your China made products and not buying any more. I fear that you may not even have a toilet bowl to sit on lol. 

[chrisandsu]

8 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

 

 

Talk is cheap. If you dare, put your money where your mouth is and start by getting rid of all your China made products and not buying any more. I fear that you may not even have a toilet bowl to sit on lol. 

Just do as the Thais do . Put on a massive import tax from

any goods from China . Necessity is the mother of invention . 

[CharlieH]

Reported off topic post and response removed.

[Traubert]

46 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

Just let them keep the industries that heavily pollute .

That's India. Do try to keep up.

 

China will make Phuket rich again by the end of this year.

[ChasingTheSun]

No COUNTRY can withstand a countrywide lockdown economically or socially for more than a few weeks.

Flights to thailand will likely start again early/mid May, only from countries that are perceived to have some semblance of control over the virus.

 

Mass gatherings(sports, concerts, movie theaters etc) will likely be banned for months.

 

Face masks and hand sanitizers will be standard required gear until there are effective therapeutics or a vaccine. Old people 60+ and those with risky health conditions will be told to take extra precautions or be locked-in. Restaurant seating may be cut in half due to distancing precautions for a few months longer.

 

New “Quick” virus tests may become standard boarding procedures at all airports.

Tourist numbers to Phuket will

likely be ok/good next high season as there will be allot of pent-up demand for holidays by then.

 

Phuket will definitely remain the top beach vacation destination In Asia once all is said and done. 
 

 

[WalkingOrders]

11 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

 

 

Talk is cheap. If you dare, put your money where your mouth is and start by getting rid of all your China made products and not buying any more. I fear that you may not even have a toilet bowl to sit on lol. 

It's already happening precisely for the reason you mention. A stark realization of the obvious, that lower prices are not worth the potential for supply chain disruptions that are detrimental to the health of a nation. A worry has already been put into the minds of the people of the USA, the US President, US business, and especially the US Congress....and for the latter....they DARE NOT ignore the obvious!

[WalkingOrders]

7 hours ago, ChasingTheSun said:

No COUNTRY can withstand a countrywide lockdown economically or socially for more than a few weeks.

Flights to thailand will likely start again early/mid May, only from countries that are perceived to have some semblance of control over the virus.

 

Mass gatherings(sports, concerts, movie theaters etc) will likely be banned for months.

 

Face masks and hand sanitizers will be standard required gear until there are effective therapeutics or a vaccine. Old people 60+ and those with risky health conditions will be told to take extra precautions or be locked-in. Restaurant seating may be cut in half due to distancing precautions for a few months longer.

 

New “Quick” virus tests may become standard boarding procedures at all airports.

Tourist numbers to Phuket will

likely be ok/good next high season as there will be allot of pent-up demand for holidays by then.

 

Phuket will definitely remain the top beach vacation destination In Asia once all is said and done. 
 

 

Excellent post!

[ChipButty]

On 4/11/2020 at 9:11 AM, bkk6060 said:

News articles such as this from International news probably are not going to help:

The title of articles on their International front page:  "Thai resort of Phuket becomes a virus hotspot."

 

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/phuket-thailand-lockdown/index.html

Thats fake news sue them

[ChipButty]

On 4/10/2020 at 11:32 PM, madmitch said:

 I even took a Russian booking last week for November!

We did the other week for Christmas and New Year from Russians tough old bunch them Russians