7 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Why not tell me your version instead of laughing at mine and avoiding answers of my 2 questions?

Well if you look at the post I said meltdown you see the poster said economy frozen and what happens when unfreezes.

I replied meltdown as more of a joke and I was laughing at that. Even the poster of that saw it as a joke.

 

I have no idea what will happen I can only read, but apparently you do know.

8 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Would you please tell me how you think that will unfold, and why in the world that would happen? The rich and powerful that controls over 95 % of all assets on earth, has been helped to minimize their losses by all the relief packages that governments all over the world has been pumping in to the economy. The only thing that will be hard is the way back for all in the working class and the poor that as a result of the virus might have lost much more than they could afford. In the big picture, that is seen as irrelevant, due to that the economical markets are held and controlled by the ones with wealth and power.

Controlling the wealth and controlling the economy are two different things.

 

In developed countries, the economy depends on consumption, up to 70% of it in the US.

 

Since the advent of globalization, consumption is financed by debt.

 

Consumers are in debt up to their eyeballs, and work for the most part to pay the interests on their debts...hence the name "debt serf".

 

Right now, the payments are frozen because the incomes are also frozen.

 

But the debts are still here, and the payments are only postponed, not cancelled.

 

So when the economy will try to restart, the creditors are going to wake up and call for their money.

 

Once the debtors/consumers will be able to get a job, they will need to keep on servicing their former debts, and to catch up with the late payments.

 

Needless to say that they won't be inclined to buy a new car on credit, or to take a cruise.

 

The rich have absolutely no control on that.

 

They cannot force the population to take on more debt, which it cannot do anyway.

 

This is what happens when the economy is built on debt rather than on savings.

One thing for sure is that this will completely reshape the home rental market. Fully expect mass homelessness when you can legally evict people due to non payment of rent (and not passing on rental given to claimers for rent by local councils when unable to work) and a new demand for insurance from all private renters that will cover ANY time off work. I certainly if I rent a property again will demand a copy of a wage cover insurance to cover my rent.

2 hours ago, jadee said:

My biggest surprise so far has been that Bitcoin isn't 'filling the void'. The current situation where central banks are printing money is exactly the sort of climate that I thought bitcoin was supposed to 'thrive' in, but it isn't. From what I read, central banks are considering issuing digital currencies linked to the national currencies - like a crypto-RMB or crypto-USD. It seems that bitcoin won't have the leading status that proponents believed it would. 

The factors needed for Bitcoin to thrive have started but have not fully played out yet. The Quantitive Easing itself is not what increases the value of real assets, it is the knock-on effects of the QE.

So, the immediate performance during last month's crash was to crash right alongside traditional shares. A lot of people decided it was a good time to pull money out of Bitcoin, not because they perceived it to be in trouble but because the value of cash to them, right now, in their real lives is higher.

The smart guys know that a stock market crash is the best time to buy, so, if you had been sticking your savings into bitcoin for the last few years, the crash was the perfect time to diversify into traditional stocks.

Smaller Bitcoin investors might have needed to break some money out to buy a new computer to work from home, or a big TV to make the lockdown more comfortable.

Others might have panicked because, like you, they were disconcerted to see it mirror the drop of traditional shares, and not immediately start thriving. The real action, and my reason for holding Bitcoin, will occur as we head into the Fall and the full extent of the QE necessary to prop up economies around the world becomes clear. The Bitcoin narrative will become far more compelling in that context.

Bitcoin is just over a decade old, so, it is still too young to be viewed as a safe haven in the way that gold is, but this crisis could be its opportunity to prove itself. It dropped from 10K to 5k within a month, now a month later it is back up to 7k. My guess is that it will plateau back around 10k by June, regaining its pre-crash value significantly faster than the traditional stocks.

Remember, the entire Bitcoin market is microscopic, only $118 billion. If it starts to rise, that will attract attention in otherwise moribund markets, and if a lot of people starting jumping aboard, that will swamp the available supply and put a rocket under the price, pushing it past 20k for the first time.

Based on past patterns, it is not crazy to predict that, as the money from QE sloshes around the world in search of a profitable place to land, we could end up with over a trillion in Bitcoin by mid-2021. That would equate to about 60k per Bitcoin. Nothing is certain, but the chances are good enough to convince me that Bitcoin is the best investment available to me right now.


 

32%

22 hours ago, rupert the bear said:

an interesting perspective,imo its hard to say,gov everywheres messed this up big time,all the free money in the west has to be paid for,that means devaluation of the currency firstly.tax next.in cyprus a few yrs ago accs were frozen and 10% taken out dont put that past them,in the depresssion USA outlawed holding gold personally and stole t from people that had it.i do feel the govts have now realised the people must go back to work for several reasons and that will limit the fall out,immunity is greater than 1st thought and few people die  less than 0.5% so 99.5% of us move on .the victims are 80% plus very old and infirmed.that realisations setting in.

Very well put 

4 hours ago, Krataiboy said:

Only up until August this year.

 

Deposit Protection up to 5 million baht has been extended until 10 August 2021:

 

 

1 hour ago, Dazinoz said:

Well if you look at the post I said meltdown you see the poster said economy frozen and what happens when unfreezes.

I replied meltdown as more of a joke and I was laughing at that. Even the poster of that saw it as a joke.

 

I have no idea what will happen I can only read, but apparently you do know.

Sorry, missed that one.

29 minutes ago, richiejom said:

 

I bought a cheap hardware wallet on Siambc.com called a Digital Bitbox for ฿900 and later bought the Nano Ledger S ฿1900 which is more high tech and supports more coins

Your approach, using hardware wallets, is quite sophisticated and, to those unfamiliar with crypto, may seem too complicated.

For anyone curious about this stuff, the best way to start is to sign up to any exchange, such as Kraken, and transfer just a few dollars, or euros, or whatever fiat currency you use, into your account there. You use that cash to buy whatever crypto currencies you want, and the amount you spend could be as little as a few cents at a time. You don't need to buy an entire bitcoin at once, you can buy tiny fragments. I know people who have been saving $5 in Bitcoin every week, religiously, for years.

You can leave your crypto coins, or your fiat currencies, sitting in your account for as long as you want. You do not need to use a software or hardware wallet, just leave it in the exchange, you can learn about wallets later. The exchange's fees for buying, selling, moving around between currencies, and withdrawing to your bank are tiny.

The best thing is that you can instantly sell your coins, or just a small slice of one, whenever you want, 24hrs a day, and withdraw the cash to your bank account. Using the European SEPA banking system, the money hits my bank in under an hour, so, I feel comfortable leaving my money in crypto until just before I need the cash in my bank.

It is worth starting off with even $5, just to break the ice and get an idea of how straightforward it is. I regret not getting into it sooner than I did. I kept putting it off because I did not want any more complexity in my life but it turned out to be so easy and a lot of fun.

 

 

14 minutes ago, donnacha said:

Your approach, using hardware wallets, is quite sophisticated and, to those unfamiliar with crypto, may seem too complicated.

For anyone curious about this stuff, the best way to start is to sign up to any exchange, such as Kraken, and transfer just a few dollars, or euros, or whatever fiat currency you use, into your account there. You use that cash to buy whatever crypto currencies you want, and the amount you spend could be as little as a few cents at a time. You don't need to buy an entire bitcoin at once, you can buy tiny fragments. I know people who have been saving $5 in Bitcoin every week, religiously, for years.

You can leave your crypto coins, or your fiat currencies, sitting in your account for as long as you want. You do not need to use a software or hardware wallet, just leave it in the exchange, you can learn about wallets later. The exchange's fees for buying, selling, moving around between currencies, and withdrawing to your bank are tiny.

The best thing is that you can instantly sell your coins, or just a small slice of one, whenever you want, 24hrs a day, and withdraw the cash to your bank account. Using the European SEPA banking system, the money hits my bank in under an hour, so, I feel comfortable leaving my money in crypto until just before I need the cash in my bank.

It is worth starting off with even $5, just to break the ice and get an idea of how straightforward it is. I regret not getting into it sooner than I did. I kept putting it off because I did not want any more complexity in my life but it turned out to be so easy and a lot of fun.

 

 

My concern is exchanges are still businesses and still have control of your money (coins) and could go bust if things really go bad. I have 2 bitcoin stored on a hardware wallet and about $aud3000 of three alt coins stored with my Australian exchange. I use Australia exchange as that is where most of my money is.

 

Just talking to a friend in Oz who's brother has been mining bitcoin since when you could do it on a PC. He is predicting it will hit $80,000. Who knows?

12 minutes ago, Dazinoz said:

 

Just talking to a friend in Oz who's brother has been mining bitcoin since when you could do it on a PC. He is predicting it will hit $80,000. Who knows?

John McAfee thought Bitcoin was going to 500,000 USD... that was before he had to eat his balls... pan fried... 

The poor planners and scaredy cats may suffer a meltdown.

Remember, the US markets usually follow a 6 month in advance indicator.

The Dow will be close to 30,000 and economy picking up steam in the US by Jan. 2021.

17 hours ago, Conno said:

Meltdown almost guaranteed depending on your definition of what a meltdown is. The longer this madness continues a global depression not recession is a certainty. USA unemployment claims numbers released last night, 6.8 million new claims. Last week 6.6 million new claims. Week before that 3.3 million claims. Total claims for the 3 weeks lock-down period just short of 17 million. The global financial system was on the brink of collapse and a "reset" even before this conveniently timed C - 19 emerged.

 

This way the "virus" gets the blame rather than those who are truly responsible. 

 

As of yesterday that equates to 1132 lost jobs for every "official" C - 19 death in the USA alone. Globally it's probably a similar statistic. Yes a meltdown is virtually inevitable now.

If we all fight the capitalists in your country, The very very rich who made their millions on the backs of the working class, I mean the Branson types who are very  much in the minority, and all of the people who inherited millions, get it of them. In the not too distant future we may need an uprising.

5 hours ago, leggo said:

Don't think you know much about finance - they have never and will never flock to secondary currency markets as there is a enormous chance that these currencies will be devalued - so if you buy x amount when you need to sell you'll probably get x minus !!!

 

Did you see the smiley faces after the post????

Sounds to me like the perfect time to make some intelligent investments. There were just as many millionaires made during the great depression as there were millionaires that went broke. Keep your cash at home and strike when the opportunities present themselves.

For those of you relying on the FDIC as a backstop, realize the C stands for corporation and corporations can go bankrupt.

3 hours ago, blackcab said:

 

Deposit Protection up to 5 million baht has been extended until 10 August 2021:

 

 

Uplifting news I missed. Thanks. 

4 hours ago, topt said:

It has just been extended to August 2021.

 

Thanks. One I missed.

23 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

So a guy that makes his living writing books about financial meltdowns and gold as currency is predicting a financial meltdown and gold as currency, what are the odds of that, lol

Caution. Even a blind old hog finds an acorn eventually. 

 

Peter Schiff, Jim Rickards, Simon Black and his ilk have some very valid points; they are neither ignorant nor insane. As Schiff is pointing out rather gleefully much of what he has preached has already come to pass. Anybody who reads his work with an open mind will admit this. Some education on macroeconomics is an endeavor worth the effort and may be invaluable in financial survival the next few years. 

 

As far as odds go, nothing is off the table these days. I assume you know that negative interest rates are common in the EU for large deposits: meaning the bank charges you to keep your money at risk there. Tell me that makes sense. We live in a Alice in Wonderland world now. 

1 hour ago, shoupy said:

For those of you relying on the FDIC as a backstop, realize the C stands for corporation and corporations can go bankrupt.

Note also that their web page clearly states that they can cover only a bit over 1% of deposits now. 

22 hours ago, Lacessit said:

IMO stock markets have further to tank. Many companies are talking about suspending dividends.

Cash is king more than ever. It will take 1 -2 years for all this to shake out financially.

Complete meltdown unlikely, those in debt are in deep doo-doo. No one wants to loan you anything.

I agree. Keep in mind that most of the money being doled out to businesses is in the form of loans to be repaid. That will slow a market rebound but forestall hyper inflation, as will continued high unemployment and real estate deflation. As to money granted to individuals, a small tax increase will recoup those funds.

23 hours ago, timendres said:

In my opinion, we are going to see serious recessions simultaneously around the globe. Markets are still not at the bottoms they will see in the next year. Recovery will take 2 to 4 years or longer, depending on the country. This will be ugly, not I do not see meltdown. As for inflation? Forget about it. The central banks have been trying to create it for years. It is pushing on a string at the moment.

I largely agree with you. 

Inflation happens when people lose faith in fiat currency. With tens of trillions being printed globally on top of the trillions in private and sovereign debt and this certainly seems like a setup for that to happen. 

A government can only dilute their currency so far before their citizens and foreign investors take notice. 

 

Historically this is when precious metals 'shine' as a hedge against inflation. By that I mean physical metals, not silly paper instruments like GLD. For smaller investors if they don't own bullion metals now they won't own it anytime soon either. You can certainly purchase it but delivery is another matter entirely. 

 

Fortunately for us in Thailand 23 carat gold jewelry is still available with no records of purchase, making it liquid here without risk of tax ramifications in our home countries. What they don't know won't hurt us! Metals are a hedge against inflation of any currency not backed by commodities, and virtually none of them are.

The USA suckered the whole world into their reserve currency scheme with Brett-Woods and now puts the entire world at risk for a financial reset based on (caused by) loss of faith in the dollar. 

 

Anything is possible now IMO. 

8 minutes ago, RocketDog said:

Fortunately for us in Thailand 23 carat gold jewelry is still available with no records of purchase, making it liquid here without risk of tax ramifications in our home countries.

Or risk of confiscation, as has happened once already in our history.

On 4/10/2020 at 2:45 PM, Leaver said:

Investors from ll around the world will be flocking to Thai banks because their deposit is guaranteed up to 5 million baht.  

1) Investors = global money, will avoid TH, a country run by the Brass and a few families, like Thais are avoiding boxing stadiums (now).

2. Investores ..... those who matter, don't care about 1 or 5 Mio TB  =  chicken poo!
 

3. Strategy: To have as much a possible, in hard currency, in quality terretories.

 

My 5 cent.

24 minutes ago, Mac98 said:

I agree. Keep in mind that most of the money being doled out to businesses is in the form of loans to be repaid. That will slow a market rebound but forestall hyper inflation, as will continued high unemployment and real estate deflation. As to money granted to individuals, a small tax increase will recoup those funds.

If you are referring to the recent 'loans' being tindred in USA, a careful reading of the law reveals that there is no firm requirements for repayment. This is the Amery an equivalent of personal 'loans' made here in Thailand. Pretty loose definition at best. 

11 minutes ago, RocketDog said:

I largely agree with you. 

Inflation happens when people lose faith in fiat currency. With tens of trillions being printed globally on top of the trillions in private and sovereign debt and this certainly seems like a setup for that to happen. 

A government can only dilute their currency so far before their citizens and foreign investors take notice. 

 

Historically this is when precious metals 'shine' as a hedge against inflation. By that I mean physical metals, not silly paper instruments like GLD. For smaller investors if they don't own bullion metals now they won't own it anytime soon either. You can certainly purchase it but delivery is another matter entirely. 

 

Fortunately for us in Thailand 23 carat gold jewelry is still available with no records of purchase, making it liquid here without risk of tax ramifications in our home countries. What they don't know won't hurt us! Metals are a hedge against inflation of any currency not backed by commodities, and virtually none of them are.

The USA suckered the whole world into their reserve currency scheme with Brett-Woods and now puts the entire world at risk for a financial reset based on (caused by) loss of faith in the dollar. 

 

Anything is possible now IMO. 

It seems likely that the Fed wants high inflation, or more, and will create as much currency as needed to get it.

 

The reason is the level of debt, not to mention the unfunded liabilities (retirement pensions), which is an unsurmountable problem, and need to be erased, one way or another.

 

Reading the daily financial reports, one could easily believe that the US is already in Zimbabwe mode...a few trillions here, a few trillions there, who's counting?

 

The only thing missing is the inflation, because these torrents of money have yet to reach the population at large.

 

Why the rest of the world keep on accepting this worthless paper is beyond comprehension...probably by fear of military retaliation...

7 minutes ago, Chopinbkk said:

1) Investors = global money, will avoid TH, a country run by the Brass and a few families, like Thais are avoiding boxing stadiums (now).

 

Investors don't care at all about who runs a country, they care about the returns on their money.

3 minutes ago, RocketDog said:

If you are referring to the recent 'loans' being tindred in USA, a careful reading of the law reveals that there is no firm requirements for repayment. This is the Amery an equivalent of personal 'loans' made here in Thailand. Pretty loose definition at best. 

Actually the loans don't have to be paid back if the money is used to pay salaries and avoid layoffs...

Maybe a solution would be a mass debt write off, worldwide. Countries, business and domestic (household). It has been talked about it before. Now might be the time

 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/01/03/how-to-save-the-global-economy-write-off-the-worlds-debt/

 

from 2012, and

 

https://www.ft.com/content/dd02e4a8-fda5-11e8-aebf-99e208d3e521

 

from 2018

 

10 hours ago, Dazinoz said:

Do some research on Jim Rickards, he has supposedly predicted a lot in the past.

If I predict a recession every month, one month I’ll be right. That’s Jim Rickard.

 

n.b. I spell his name correctly only to get it “corrected” as Richard.