Why is Thailand not reopening?

[chessman]

10 minutes ago, Rod the Sod said:

Samitivej Sukhumvit

Somebody told me that the private hospitals are only offering tests, are not taking Covid patients. Anybody know the truth about that?
on one hand, they will be very cautious of an infectious disease spreading but on the other hand would they turn down all the money they could make from the rich?

[smutcakes]

1 minute ago, DrTuner said:

My family is here, I was in the middle of a slow exit plan, but not to my country of origin. I am revising that plan now, but finding a good destination is a challenge. Montenegro is at the top of the list right now.

You think the health service, Government, bureaucracy is bad here then you are in for a rude awakening.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_in_Montenegro

Sure you can find lots of things to complain about their handling of Crovid.

Grass is not always greener.

I think everything seems better if you have a positive attitude, rather than trying to find the negative in everything.

[smutcakes]

6 minutes ago, chessman said:

Somebody told me that the private hospitals are only offering tests, are not taking Covid patients. Anybody know the truth about that?
on one hand, they will be very cautious of an infectious disease spreading but on the other hand would they turn down all the money they could make from the rich?

My understanding is that all patients are being sent to designated Government hospitals after diagnosis.

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Grass is not always greener.

In here the grass has burned brown thanks to the drought. 

[smutcakes]

1 minute ago, DrTuner said:

In here the grass has burned brown thanks to the drought. 

Move to the south of the country, plenty of green around there, when its not flooding.

I bet in 5 years time you are still here complaining about the same things....

[ICELANDMAN]

For take near 500.000 tourists

[chessman]

1 hour ago, AussieBob18 said:

Another one !!!   My expert/source versus your expert/source.

So if the experts/sources don't agree doesn't it make sense to take the most cautious approach?

[tomazbodner]

On 4/14/2020 at 11:48 AM, OneMoreFarang said:

From yesterday and today:

I know that's chart based on official data, but - nobody knows how many people are really infected. You can't say it's 1.49% fatality rate against infections. Only against confirmed infections, which is by itself a load of nonsense. It's kind of like polls. Out of 1000 people (from 66,560,000), 23% said that... But at least here you have one number fixed, the percentage of people polled, in case of COVID you have no idea what percentage of population is infected, nor how many percent of these were confirmed, nor how many have actually died of it, as only deaths of confirmed COVID patients are counted, and even there you don't know which way they mark things - if a guy has COVID and has a heart failure - is that considered COVID or heart failure related? As such, as nice as these numbers look, they mean nothing. And that's not only for Thailand.

[AussieBob18]

12 minutes ago, chessman said:

So if the experts/sources don't agree doesn't it make sense to take the most cautious approach?

Get an opinion and try to justify it - until then stay away from forums where people share their opinions.

[AussieBob18]

12 minutes ago, tomazbodner said:

I know that's chart based on official data, but - nobody knows how many people are really infected. You can't say it's 1.49% fatality rate against infections. Only against confirmed infections, which is by itself a load of nonsense. It's kind of like polls. Out of 1000 people (from 66,560,000), 23% said that... But at least here you have one number fixed, the percentage of people polled, in case of COVID you have no idea what percentage of population is infected, nor how many percent of these were confirmed, nor how many have actually died of it, as only deaths of confirmed COVID patients are counted, and even there you don't know which way they mark things - if a guy has COVID and has a heart failure - is that considered COVID or heart failure related? As such, as nice as these numbers look, they mean nothing. And that's not only for Thailand.

Mate you are talking total sense and logic - many others cant seem to find that perspective.  The experts only learn the real numbers after the viral infection has dissipated - that has been the same for all previous viral outbreaks.  And just like many before Covid, this was has been blown up out of all proportion - but this time they got things shut down.

 

QUOTE:  A major contributing factor to some of the criticisms of the management of the H1N1 pandemic was that its mortality impact was considerably less than had been predicted. Pre-pandemic global estimates of death were often in the millions while the ultimate death toll has been reported in the thousands. The large discrepancy in the predicted and reported death tolls suggests that there is a potential problem in how influenza deaths are estimated, counted and compared.

 

The above is from the European Journal of Public Health - Oxford Press - 2012

https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article/22/1/7/489927

[Odysseus123]

18 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Get an opinion and try to justify it - until then stay away from forums where people share their opinions.

But then,I would have to invite him/her back as I am enjoying his posts..

[balo]

The official figures in Thailand are not correct, Why would it be correct here when its not even correct in Western countries?  A lot of underreported cases everywhere, think of all the elderly people dying in government hospitals every day, of course some of them are infected with the virus. 

[smutcakes]

4 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Mate you are talking total sense and logic - many others cant seem to find that perspective.  The experts only learn the real numbers after the viral infection has dissipated - that has been the same for all previous viral outbreaks.  And just like many before Covid, this was has been blown up out of all proportion - but this time they got things shut down.

 

QUOTE:  A major contributing factor to some of the criticisms of the management of the H1N1 pandemic was that its mortality impact was considerably less than had been predicted. Pre-pandemic global estimates of death were often in the millions while the ultimate death toll has been reported in the thousands. The large discrepancy in the predicted and reported death tolls suggests that there is a potential problem in how influenza deaths are estimated, counted and compared.

 

The above is from the European Journal of Public Health - Oxford Press - 2012

https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article/22/1/7/489927

Bob,

 

I think the main reason countries have shut down is due to the deep concern with the speed and severity of how the virus appeared to be spreading. The way it went through Spain and Italy particularly had countries worried that if they did not take drastic measures the sheer volume needing critical care at any one time would completely overwhelm health care systems throughout the countries. If the virus was left to run its course and infect huge numbers of people with even 5-10% needing hospitalization, then there is very good fear a complete breakdown of society. Healthcare officials walking out, people dying in the streets, civil unrest etc

 

I am not sure if you have put forward your solution to how these problems could have been avoided, or what you think would of been the best way to navigate the crisis.

[lemonwaterjoe]

On 4/14/2020 at 6:20 AM, donnacha said:

They intend to open up at the same time as the countries that supply most of their tourists.

The Nation writes today:

 

""“In the future, foreign tourists wanting to visit Thailand will have to apply a month ahead & must agree to a 14-day quarantine upon arrival.”""

 

So if they open like this NOBODY will come.

[totally thaied up]

15 minutes ago, lemonwaterjoe said:

The Nation writes today:

 

""“In the future, foreign tourists wanting to visit Thailand will have to apply a month ahead & must agree to a 14-day quarantine upon arrival.”""

 

So if they open like this NOBODY will come.

How would you like it to open? Having hoards of Americans and Italians rolling in doing a free for all? Opening the cesspit bars and having the worlds oldest trade spread the virus even more?

 

This is going to be a major problems for all Countries. You don't need much of a flare up of cases to get this virus started it seems and it spreads well. Just a few boxing stadium events like we had with carries could bring the whole house of cards crashing down. Even just a few busy bar/nightlife venues could do it. To date, the young people in Thailand seem to be those that spread the virus. Why do you think they suspended flights coming in to 30th of April - they just do not want to risk it at this given time. I think the Government knows tourism is trashed for this year, so they are better off getting some form of a lid on it now rather then later. Almost for sure, there will be other waves over time until either a vaccine is made or the virus has been around long enough for us to develop some herd immunity to it but in reality as others said, none of us knows this. It's going to take time to work all this out.

 

 

[AussieBob18]

11 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Bob,

I think the main reason countries have shut down is due to the deep concern with the speed and severity of how the virus appeared to be spreading. The way it went through Spain and Italy particularly had countries worried that if they did not take drastic measures the sheer volume needing critical care at any one time would completely overwhelm health care systems throughout the countries. If the virus was left to run its course and infect huge numbers of people with even 5-10% needing hospitalization, then there is very good fear a complete breakdown of society. Healthcare officials walking out, people dying in the streets, civil unrest etc

I am not sure if you have put forward your solution to how these problems could have been avoided, or what you think would of been the best way to navigate the crisis.

Just to correct a point - the restrictions started being discussed and partially implemented in late-February and at that time the 'bad' numbers were only evident in China and Korea - but the WHO models were horrendous. The stock markets started to crash at the same time - 24th Feb.  Once things progressed quickly in other other countries (Italy and Iran), the restrictions were starting to be upgraded - the Govts all followed each other (notable exceptions like Thailand).  Initial evidence in Feb indicated that the early models were correct, and when surges happened in Italy, Spain things were ramped up. Since then the modelling numbers are being ramped down - 100K in Aust became 60K became 40K became 20K - we are at at 61.   

 

Has the social distancing done that? Reduced it by 100s of millions worldwide?  Really?  Or is it like H1N1 (Swine Flu) and the initial model numbers were over estimated - by a large factor.  They over reacted for the right reasons - but they over reacted.  In some places they should have shut down completely - in others gradually.  Next time they will know - but to deny we are in lockdown unecessarily for something that has killed 100K, when TB etc. kills millions each year, is what I am against accepting.

 

If you read my posts you will see that I have offered lots of solutions - number 1 is that the lockdowns should be gradually released  and herd immunity developed in places that are clearly showing this would be OK to do (eg. not New York). Covid aint going away - it will be back - there will be no vaccine for a long time if ever - keeping people 'safe' just makes it worse next time - herd immunity is the only answer.  Unless you are happy to be locked down for 6-9 months and come out of it with the world economy destroyed and billions with no means to live - Govts cannot keep giving support for 6-9 months - billions  cannot all go back to the farm and grow rice and chickens.

[Pattaya46]

37 minutes ago, lemonwaterjoe said:

""“In the future, foreign tourists wanting to visit Thailand will have to apply a month ahead & must agree to a 14-day quarantine upon arrival.”""

 

So if they open like this NOBODY will come.

Wrong. I would do it !

And many retirees expats who like me where abroad when Thailand closed its border are probably ready to accept this quarantine if it's their only way to go back "home" before a long time...

[chessman]

1 hour ago, tomazbodner said:

I know that's chart based on official data, but - nobody knows how many people are really infected. You can't say it's 1.49% fatality rate against infections. Only against confirmed infections, which is by itself a load of nonsense.

You are right that the 1.49% there doesn't make sense for the reasons you outlined. The 8.8% in Indonesia is especially misleading because it clearly isn't that high anywhere in the world and that might cause panic.

 

However, if scientists analyzing the data, taking into account the issue related to people with mild symptoms not being tested, using all the data we have available and then finding that the fatality rate is 1.38% then we should take that seriously.

Here is an article in a peer reviewed respected British medical journal.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

 

There are many similar estimations, some a bit higher, some a bit lower. They may be wrong but they are the best estimations we have. For governments to gamble that these numbers are way off and go on with very few restrictions could have led to the death of millions.

[Ryan754326]

On 4/14/2020 at 11:51 AM, OneMoreFarang said:

Luckily we don't have Trump in charge here.

Have a look at the news from the USA and you see what happens when things go wrong.

Trump, Trump, Trump...

 

Everyone keeps going on about the high number of deaths in the USA, and acting as if it’s solely due to the president’s botched response, but they forget that it also has the third largest population in the world, behind China and India.
 

If, just for the sake of argument, you were to think of Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK as one country, they would have a smaller population, significantly more cases, and about twice as many deaths as the United States, so far.

I don’t remember the last time I heard anyone ranting about what a <deleted>-poor job the European leaders have done, but I hear about Trump all day, everyday. 
 

For the record, I’m neither American, nor a Trump supporter. Just doing my best to be objective and look past the propaganda. There’s obviously no way for me to prove it, but I’m confident that if Hillary were the president during this crisis, the media would be singing a much different tune. 
 

[smutcakes]

41 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Just to correct a point - the restrictions started being discussed and partially implemented in late-February and at that time the 'bad' numbers were only evident in China and Korea - but the WHO models were horrendous. The stock markets started to crash at the same time - 24th Feb.  Once things progressed quickly in other other countries (Italy and Iran), the restrictions were starting to be upgraded - the Govts all followed each other (notable exceptions like Thailand).  Initial evidence in Feb indicated that the early models were correct, and when surges happened in Italy, Spain things were ramped up. Since then the modelling numbers are being ramped down - 100K in Aust became 60K became 40K became 20K - we are at at 61.   

 

Has the social distancing done that? Reduced it by 100s of millions worldwide?  Really?  Or is it like H1N1 (Swine Flu) and the initial model numbers were over estimated - by a large factor.  They over reacted for the right reasons - but they over reacted.  In some places they should have shut down completely - in others gradually.  Next time they will know - but to deny we are in lockdown unecessarily for something that has killed 100K, when TB etc. kills millions each year, is what I am against accepting.

 

If you read my posts you will see that I have offered lots of solutions - number 1 is that the lockdowns should be gradually released  and herd immunity developed in places that are clearly showing this would be OK to do (eg. not New York). Covid aint going away - it will be back - there will be no vaccine for a long time if ever - keeping people 'safe' just makes it worse next time - herd immunity is the only answer.  Unless you are happy to be locked down for 6-9 months and come out of it with the world economy destroyed and billions with no means to live - Govts cannot keep giving support for 6-9 months - billions  cannot all go back to the farm and grow rice and chickens.

How do we know that the spread has been vastly reduced from the social distancing measures and the reasons other countries have not done a China, SK, Italy etc is because of those measures taken. Surely the fact that everyone is ramping down is a strong sign that lock downs are working, and if not implemented the situation could very rapidly spiral out of control like Spain and Italy.

 

Heard immunity is a good idea in principle but its based on the knowledge that to get their you would need enormous amounts of people to get sick, huge numbers would die and i dont think anyone was willing for that to be the case as you would flood vital services. Also not sure about your suggestion on selective areas of herd immunity, how in practice would that work, and would you essentially not be saying some people lives are more important than others as many would die.

 

I agree on the massive financial impact this could/will have, so i am sure Governments are looking for a way out, no doubt advised by the worlds best. Not sure if you have any background in this type of situation or medical background, but for me the majority of experts seem to be roughly in agreement that lock downs is the best way to go, so i am personally inclined to trust them.

[OneMoreFarang]

2 hours ago, tomazbodner said:

I know that's chart based on official data, but - nobody knows how many people are really infected. You can't say it's 1.49% fatality rate against infections. Only against confirmed infections, which is by itself a load of nonsense. It's kind of like polls. Out of 1000 people (from 66,560,000), 23% said that... But at least here you have one number fixed, the percentage of people polled, in case of COVID you have no idea what percentage of population is infected, nor how many percent of these were confirmed, nor how many have actually died of it, as only deaths of confirmed COVID patients are counted, and even there you don't know which way they mark things - if a guy has COVID and has a heart failure - is that considered COVID or heart failure related? As such, as nice as these numbers look, they mean nothing. And that's not only for Thailand.

I just provided the graph and statistic. I know the meaning of those numbers is limited. But these are the best numbers we have. We can all speculate how the real numbers are. But it's just speculation. 

[RedPill]

16 minutes ago, Ryan754326 said:

Trump, Trump, Trump...

 

Everyone keeps going on about the high number of deaths in the USA, and acting as if it’s solely due to the president’s botched response, but they forget that it also has the third largest population in the world, behind China and India.
 

If, just for the sake of argument, you were to think of Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK as one country, they would have a smaller population, significantly more cases, and about twice as many deaths as the United States, so far.

I don’t remember the last time I heard anyone ranting about what a <deleted>-poor job the European leaders have done, but I hear about Trump all day, everyday. 
 

For the record, I’m neither American, nor a Trump supporter. Just doing my best to be objective and look past the propaganda. There’s obviously no way for me to prove it, but I’m confident that if Hillary were the president during this crisis, the media would be singing a much different tune. 
 

I don't have much opinion about that specifically ... just another politician, surrounded by experts giving advise. 

 

But from my point of view, it has a lot to do with the 'way' he act's and forces his message across. Not so diplomatic, and his tweets while maybe sitting on the toilet ... just out of nowhere. Without any agreement with his team. They are all puppets just saying yes, else get fired.

 

Before I worked many years for a US multinational, you know that kind of business style in the presentation rooms.

 

Hey bob, good job ... harry has good numbers, harry is good. And over there, other division, DJ's numbers, RJ's numbers, DJT's, JT's numbers ... terrific.

And Mark, you know Mark, always does a good job. Tony, yes, I like Tony ... bla bla bla. I like myself too, I do the best job in the world.

 

No, I don't know any of them ... just speak up in clear language. You are the POTUS, not a power hungry CxO of a company.

 

When I saw him standing on the left side, while presenting his 'video clip' 2 days ago, I had a flashback.

 

And then he points out people, during a presentation ... hey bob ... that's correct, or not? Bob just nods his head, what else should he do in the midst of that power seeking chaos in a meeting room.

 

He had exactly that same 'unpleasant' grinse in his face as my ex-boss, during his presentations. God, I hated this show so much, that's why I left that monkey business and live free in Thailand now.

 

Anyways ... good luck and all the best to the US, from the bottom of my heart.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by RedPill

[sandyf]

6 minutes ago, Ryan754326 said:

I don’t remember the last time I heard anyone ranting about what a <deleted>-poor job the European leaders have done, but I hear about Trump all day, everyday.

You are quite right, the Europeans tend to get ignored with the ranting mainly directed at the Thais.

The US death rate is well below Europe at 79 deaths /million, in Thailand it is 0.6 deaths /million. You can only hope that the US does not rise to the same sort of level seen in Europe.

[geisha]

On 4/14/2020 at 7:09 AM, Brunolem said:

A little caution certainly, but what about postponing the school reopening to July, when France, hundreds of times more affected than Thailand, announced yesterday that its schools will reopen in one month, on May 11th?

The schools in France will only open on the 11 th if the situation allows it to. Also, 
There were a great number of pneumonia cases being reported in January and February.

There will be no international travel until September from Europe and certainly the USA the way things look. 

[RotBenz8888]

1 hour ago, lemonwaterjoe said:

The Nation writes today:

 

""“In the future, foreign tourists wanting to visit Thailand will have to apply a month ahead & must agree to a 14-day quarantine upon arrival.”""

 

So if they open like this NOBODY will come.

Wouldn't surprise me if this is actually implemented+ neg covid test and an insurance only to be allowed to board the flight. BUT, once the "high season"arrives, they'll need to come up with something new. No way the flights will be grounded and hotels closed in October. TAT has magic powers as you all very well know.

[OneMoreFarang]

11 minutes ago, Ryan754326 said:

Trump, Trump, Trump...

 

Everyone keeps going on about the high number of deaths in the USA, and acting as if it’s solely due to the president’s botched response, but they forget that it also has the third largest population in the world, behind China and India.
 

If, just for the sake of argument, you were to think of Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK as one country, they would have a smaller population, significantly more cases, and about twice as many deaths as the United States, so far.

I don’t remember the last time I heard anyone ranting about what a <deleted>-poor job the European leaders have done, but I hear about Trump all day, everyday. 
 

For the record, I’m neither American, nor a Trump supporter. Just doing my best to be objective and look past the propaganda. There’s obviously no way for me to prove it, but I’m confident that if Hillary were the president during this crisis, the media would be singing a much different tune. 
 

I look basically constantly at the news. And I see news from different countries and what politicians did and didn't do. And sometimes I see the leaders of those countries giving statements and press conferences.

I think in times like this it's unrealistic to expect perfection from any of them. It's even unrealistic to expect that they always do a good job. Lots of mistakes were made and will be made. And that's not surprising because it's such an unusual situation and nobody trained for that.

What puts Trump apart from all the others is the fact that he constantly tells everybody he did and does a fantastic job. He gives himself a 10 out of 10. And he blames the DEMs, the WHO, the media, anybody but himself. That is a big problem - like now cutting off the funding for the WHO.

I think Trump could make lots of points if he would say something like: "We all made mistakes and I also made mistakes. I should have acted better and faster. But now we are where we are and now let's work together and solve the problems together." It would be great for everybody if he would do that. And I am pretty sure it wouldn't hurt him for his reelection. But will Trump ever say something like that? Will he ever admit that he did anything wrong? I have my doubts.

[sandyf]

10 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I just provided the graph and statistic. I know the meaning of those numbers is limited. But these are the best numbers we have. We can all speculate how the real numbers are. But it's just speculation. 

More comprehensive data for the UK can be found here.

 

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 3 April 2020 (Week 14) was 16,387; this represents an increase of 5,246 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 13) and 6,082 more than the five-year average.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

[RedPill]

2 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I look basically constantly at the news. And I see news from different countries and what politicians did and didn't do. And sometimes I see the leaders of those countries giving statements and press conferences.

I think in times like this it's unrealistic to expect perfection from any of them. It's even unrealistic to expect that they always do a good job. Lots of mistakes were made and will be made. And that's not surprising because it's such an unusual situation and nobody trained for that.

What puts Trump apart from all the others is the fact that he constantly tells everybody he did and does a fantastic job. He gives himself a 10 out of 10. And he blames the DEMs, the WHO, the media, anybody but himself. That is a big problem - like now cutting off the funding for the WHO.

I think Trump could make lots of points if he would say something like: "We all made mistakes and I also made mistakes. I should have acted better and faster. But now we are where we are and now let's work together and solve the problems together." It would be great for everybody if he would do that. And I am pretty sure it wouldn't hurt him for his reelection. But will Trump ever say something like that? Will he ever admit that he did anything wrong? I have my doubts.

Exactly that ...!

 

Trump or not Trump ... just act responsible, and that's it.

 

[sandyf]

3 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

And that's not surprising because it's such an unusual situation and nobody trained for that.

That in fact is one of the big issues. Countries train for war but anytime that training for an epidemic is mentioned, it gets thumbs up as a good idea and shelved.

It has not gone unnoticed that the countries that faced SARS have done a bit better.

[yuyiinthesky]

On 4/14/2020 at 11:53 AM, AussieBob18 said:

More people are dieing of lung cancer every day (20+) than are dieing from Covid19 a day (2-3) - and yet buying cigarettes and smoking is still legal and has not been shut down.  It is all not rational.

May be due to the tax income from selling cigarettes. More tax seems to be more important than avoiding lung cancer, at least as long as nobody complains about it.