Why is Thailand not reopening?

[Ryan754326]

1 hour ago, RedPill said:

I don't have much opinion about that specifically ... just another politician, surrounded by experts giving advise. 

 

But from my point of view, it has a lot to do with the 'way' he act's and forces his message across. Not so diplomatic, and his tweets while maybe sitting on the toilet ... just out of nowhere. Without any agreement with his team. They are all puppets just saying yes, else get fired.

 

Before I worked many years for a US multinational, you know that kind of business style in the presentation rooms.

 

Hey bob, good job ... harry has good numbers, harry is good. And over there, other division, DJ's numbers, RJ's numbers, DJT's, JT's numbers ... terrific.

And Mark, you know Mark, always does a good job. Tony, yes, I like Tony ... bla bla bla. I like myself too, I do the best job in the world.

 

No, I don't know any of them ... just speak up in clear language. You are the POTUS, not a power hungry CxO of a company.

 

When I saw him standing on the left side, while presenting his 'video clip' 2 days ago, I had a flashback.

 

And then he points out people, during a presentation ... hey bob ... that's correct, or not? Bob just nods his head, what else should he do in the midst of that power seeking chaos in a meeting room.

 

He had exactly that same 'unpleasant' grinse in his face as my ex-boss, during his presentations. God, I hated this show so much, that's why I left that monkey business and live free in Thailand now.

 

Anyways ... good luck and all the best to the US, from the bottom of my heart.

 

 

 

 

 

I agree with everything you say about Trump, he doesn’t carry himself well in the public eye, and his way of speaking isn’t diplomatic. 
I have to wonder though, if he might act differently, had the media not turned the entire world against him, completely disregarded the positive things he has accomplished as president, and made such a huge show out of things that all past presidents have also done, such as detaining illegal immigrants at the border. 
I often shake my head when I see Trump faced with an opportunity to make his opponents look stupid by explaining the facts in a calm, reasoned manner; only to see him to lash out aggressively, and give them that much more to criticize him for. He’s not that sharp, and is often his own worst enemy. That being said, most of the Americans that I know, who work, pay their taxes, and try to get ahead in life, have said that while they don’t necessarily like Trump as a person, their situation has improved since he has been president. 
So many people nowadays seem to think that being a likable guy is the most important credential for running a country, and that the government’s job is to take care of people, rather than to create an environment where people can take care of themselves.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Ryan754326

[BTB1977]

Luckily the American Democrats and liberals are not running thailand or else we would be told everything is ok and go to Chinatown.  Plus call the president rasist to shut down flights from China.  They would be believing everything China has told them about the virus coming from an American soldier.  Thank god for president Trump doing what he promised  and his draining of the swamp.  

[chessman]

38 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

May be due to the tax income from selling cigarettes. More tax seems to be more important than avoiding lung cancer, at least as long as nobody complains about it.

If cases of lung cancer started to double every few days then smoking would be banned very quickly.

 

It is a mistake to look only at the current number of covid-19 deaths - The extreme measures taken by governments worldwide are based on the potential damage the virus could do.

[DrTuner]

2 hours ago, totally thaied up said:

How would you like it to open?

Offer a free PCR test for all arrivals. After negative results let free. If denying to be tested, 14 day enforced quarantine.

[RotBenz8888]

7 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Offer a free PCR test for all arrivals. After negative results let free. If denying to be tested, 14 day enforced quarantine.

How fast would a PCR test provide result?

[DrTuner]

7 minutes ago, RotBenz8888 said:

How fast would a PCR test provide result?

Under 2h if expedited. The CRISPR test should be faster. They would need a biolab right at swampy.

 

Those are the two that I know of that can detect an ongoing infection. Antibody tests show still ongoing or previous, but fail in the early stages.

Edited April 15, 2020 by DrTuner

[RedPill]

56 minutes ago, Ryan754326 said:

I agree with everything you say about Trump, he doesn’t carry himself well in the public eye, and his way of speaking isn’t diplomatic. 
I have to wonder though, if he might act differently, had the media not turned the entire world against him, completely disregarded the positive things he has accomplished as president, and made such a huge show out of things that all past presidents have also done, such as detaining illegal immigrants at the border. 
I often shake my head when I see Trump faced with an opportunity to make his opponents look stupid by explaining the facts in a calm, reasoned manner; only to see him to lash out aggressively, and give them that much more to criticize him for. He’s not that sharp, and is often his own worst enemy. That being said, most of the Americans that I know, who work, pay their taxes, and try to get ahead in life, have said that while they don’t necessarily like Trump as a person, their situation has improved since he has been president. 
So many people nowadays seem to think that being a likable guy is the most important credential for running a country, and that the government’s job is to take care of people, rather than to create an environment where people can take care of themselves.

I certainly don't disagree with you. Also, I don't live in the states, so I can't really see or feel what people are thinking or talking on the ground or in that country. I think I haven't been to the US since 7-8 years now. 

 

To me, it's either a directed funnel to the left or right, in either YouTube commentaries or TV channels. So I try to stay out of it.

 

I just had this crazy flashback of my old days of business meetings when following those press conferences. 

 

And Trump has so many trades of my ex-boss (which I loved so much ????, not really) when I look at him.

He's US corporate to the bone. 

 

I leave it up to other people to say whether this is a good or bad thing. It certainly is different in the political circus.

 

Time will tell.

 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by RedPill

[AussieBob18]

2 hours ago, smutcakes said:

How do we know that the spread has been vastly reduced from the social distancing measures and the reasons other countries have not done a China, SK, Italy etc is because of those measures taken. Surely the fact that everyone is ramping down is a strong sign that lock downs are working, and if not implemented the situation could very rapidly spiral out of control like Spain and Italy.

 

Heard immunity is a good idea in principle but its based on the knowledge that to get their you would need enormous amounts of people to get sick, huge numbers would die and i dont think anyone was willing for that to be the case as you would flood vital services. Also not sure about your suggestion on selective areas of herd immunity, how in practice would that work, and would you essentially not be saying some people lives are more important than others as many would die.

 

I agree on the massive financial impact this could/will have, so i am sure Governments are looking for a way out, no doubt advised by the worlds best. Not sure if you have any background in this type of situation or medical background, but for me the majority of experts seem to be roughly in agreement that lock downs is the best way to go, so i am personally inclined to trust them.

OK - so you havent read previous posts. Italy and Spain had lockdowns - didnt work.

Not a fact that the lockdowns reduced the numbers that much - speculation.

The herd idea is to do the Sweden model - I detailed that earlier - 20s to 50s deal with it - 70 plus isolated.

Vast majority of deaths are over 80s.  In Aust we have had one under 60 die - 50 year old with medical problems.

Make the old ones safe - let the young ones catch and develop immunities - virus dies out.

That is because the evidence shows the mortality rate under 50 is same as seasonal flu.

 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by AussieBob18

[yuyiinthesky]

56 minutes ago, chessman said:

If cases of lung cancer started to double every few days then smoking would be banned very quickly.

So you are saying that the current volume of lung cancer is acceptable, the tax income cigarettes generate is worth it? I hope that's not what you mean!

[BritManToo]

Just now, yuyiinthesky said:

So you are saying that the current volume of lung cancer is acceptable, the tax income cigarettes generate is worth it? I hope that's not what you mean!

Fallacious argument,

Presumably people who don't exercise should not be covered for heart problem, people who eat too much sugar shouldn't be covered for Diabetes, drinkers/liver disease ...... etc. You could go on forever, why just pick on smokers?

[AussieBob18]

1 hour ago, yuyiinthesky said:

May be due to the tax income from selling cigarettes. More tax seems to be more important than avoiding lung cancer, at least as long as nobody complains about it.

True.  And that is the reality of this madness.  

[yuyiinthesky]

2 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

should not be covered

not be covered for what? This was about smoking getting banned to avoid many lung cancer cases, not about some covers.

[BritManToo]

Just now, yuyiinthesky said:

not be covered for what? This was about smoking getting banned to avoid many lung cancer cases, not about some covers.

Ban smoking to stop lung cancer (hard in Chiang Mai as we're all smoking 24/7)

Ban drinking to stop liver disease.

Ban sugar to stop diabetes.

Force everyone to exercise 1 hr /day to stop heart disease.

 

Why pick on smokers, get the idea?

[AussieBob18]

58 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Offer a free PCR test for all arrivals. After negative results let free. If denying to be tested, 14 day enforced quarantine.

And the tourist pays for it - price stated up front when buy their ticket.

Big money maker for Swampy - millions a day paying 1000 Baht? for a test.

TAT will be all over this idea of yours - it will save the economy ????

40 million tourists times 1000 Baht - oh goody - lots of money - lets do it.

[RotBenz8888]

32 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Under 2h if expedited. The CRISPR test should be faster. They would need a biolab right at swampy.

 

Those are the two that I know of that can detect an ongoing infection. Antibody tests show still ongoing or previous, but fail in the early stages.

Will cause some additional queuing, but on the other hand, the arrival numbers won't be anywhere near the usual for quite some time. And with a straight forward test result, the Thai officials won't have the trouble interpreting health certificates in foreign languages. Those who do test positive will be sent to some of the huge number of empty hotel rooms, turned into quarantenes. Another question is whether they'll require som kind of insurance.

[BritManToo]

2 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

And the tourist pays for it - price stated up front when buy their ticket.

Big money maker for Swampy - millions a day paying 1000 Baht? for a test.

TAT will be all over this idea of yours - it will save the economy ????

40 million tourists times 1000 Baht - oh goody - lots of money - lets do it.

Most travellers would just choose another country to visit.

Thailand ain't that special any more.

If I wasn't already here, I wouldn't be coming.

Edited April 15, 2020 by BritManToo

[AussieBob18]

1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

Ban smoking to stop lung cancer (hard in Chiang Mai as we're all smoking 24/7)

Ban drinking to stop liver disease.

Ban sugar to stop diabetes.

Force everyone to exercise 1 hr /day to stop heart disease.

Why pick on smokers, get the idea?

Dont stop there mate - there are so many more.

Ban fast foods causing fat people 

Ban cars and bikes - they kill millions - Govt buses/taxis only

Ban TV - people get stupid ideas - only Govt channels and infomercials (spend money)

I hour exercise - not enough - 2 hours per day minimum - Govt run companies only (nephew own those ones)

 

Mate - you are on to something - we can all be looked after better - they know best - yes sir no sir 3 bags full sir.

Why not let Govt run things - 1984 - better late than never - the State knows best - Metropolis - when was that? 1929??! 

 

[RotBenz8888]

1 minute ago, AussieBob18 said:

And the tourist pays for it - price stated up front when buy their ticket.

Big money maker for Swampy - millions a day paying 1000 Baht? for a test.

TAT will be all over this idea of yours - it will save the economy ????

40 million tourists times 1000 Baht - oh goody - lots of money - lets do it.

And at the next desk, the compulsory insurance. Or which comes first.....

[AussieBob18]

5 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Most travellers would just choose another country to visit.

Thailand ain't that special any more.

If I wasn't already here, I wouldn't be coming.

Not if they all do it - come one mate - money money money

That is what tourists are for obviously (quoting TAT there).

[AussieBob18]

2 minutes ago, RotBenz8888 said:

And at the next desk, the compulsory insurance. Or which comes first.....

Insurance first - 10K Baht minimum per week staying.

Test OK - on your way - enjoy and spend.

Test positive - stay in isolation - no refunds.

Thanks for coming 

 

[chessman]

18 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

So you are saying that the current volume of lung cancer is acceptable, the tax income cigarettes generate is worth it? I hope that's not what you mean!

Am not saying that at all. Anything that kills large number of people should be analyzed. With lung cancer there are difficult issues related to personal freedom with people who smoke. That is a separate issue though

 

What I'm saying is that a pandemic that starts to kill people exponentially is potentially a bigger threat. If the death toll is doubling every 5 days then that requires urgent attention and extreme measures.

[chessman]

34 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Italy and Spain had lockdowns - didnt work.

Not a fact that the lockdowns reduced the numbers that much - speculation.

The numbers of daily cases were increasing by 20%+ in Italy and Spain... they introduce lockdowns and the numbers of new cases stabilize. Now the numbers of deaths per day is falling in both of those countries.

And it's speculation that the lockdowns reduced numbers? Hmnnnnnnn

[unblocktheplanet]

I think the optimistic dreamers who have posted their opinions here must read some books first: Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How It Changed the World and The Spanish Flu Epidemic and Its Influence on History: Stories from the 1918-1920 Global Flu Pandemic. January 1918 to December of 1920, three full years.

 

There are others to recommend for a full understanding of what we're living through (and some of us will not!): Pandemic 1918 Eyewitness Accounts from the Greatest Medical Holocaust in Modern History and The Great Influenza. Those who want to open up read that title again: "Medical holocaust". Is there any doubt in anyone's mind that's being repeated right now?

 

For safety, a caustious prediction would be 18-24 months.

 

Open things up prematurely and enormous numbers die. Keep it locked down & many more suffer. (I'm in favour of lockdown as long as it takes.)

 

Whatever happens, the world will never be the same. I think worse but I'm a professional pessimist.

 

NOTHING has changed since 1918 when 20% of the world's population was felled. You really want to test this? Okay--ONE country at a time! Austria seems eager; if their citizens agree, by referendum, we can watch what happens & still keep locked down.

Edited April 15, 2020 by unblocktheplanet
additions

[AussieBob18]

40 minutes ago, chessman said:

The numbers of daily cases were increasing by 20%+ in Italy and Spain... they introduce lockdowns and the numbers of new cases stabilize. Now the numbers of deaths per day is falling in both of those countries.

And it's speculation that the lockdowns reduced numbers? Hmnnnnnnn

Sweden and Australia?  And so many others. 

All of Italy and Spain - or certain locations - bet you have to look that up.

 

Give it a rest mate - our positions are clear.

 

You want lock-downs til XMas and everyone is safe, with little/no immunity and a hope for no later reinfections.

I want them gradually eased come end April, to enable a big increase in immunities to stop the later reinfections.

 

Lets see who ends up being right at XMas.

[chessman]

24 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

You want lock-downs til XMas and everyone is safe, with little/no immunity and a hope for no later reinfections.

I want them gradually eased come end April, to enable a big increase in immunities to stop the later reinfections.

Not at all. I think that restrictions should start loosening up as soon as possible in a controlled and sensible way. But I don’t think we should treat this thing like it’s just the seasonal flu and you constantly making references to current numbers of dead from this virus and comparing this to other causes of death is just ridiculous. 
 

sweden by the way, has 6 times more dead than Norway and Finland combined (countries with a similar combined population and lifestyle and demographics) Now Sweden is in the top 8 of major countries in terms of death by million of population. and rising fast. 

 

it cannot be taken for granted that the Sweden ‘experiment’ has been a success.

Edited April 15, 2020 by chessman

[KhaoNiaw]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

it cannot be taken for granted that the Sweden ‘experiment’ has been a success.

So far it looks to be in the middle. Nowhere near as bad as the worst cases but much worse than its neighbors who put social restrictions in place. You also have to take into account that Swedes seem to have changed their habits of their own accord to some extent without government restrictions. It's not exactly as if they've just carried on as normal. 

[chessman]

11 minutes ago, KhaoNiaw said:

so far it looks to be in the middle. Nowhere near as bad as the worst cases but much worse than its neighbors who put social restrictions in place. You also have to take into account that Swedes seem to have changed their habits of their own accord to some extent without government restrictions. It's not exactly as if they've just carried on as normal. 

I agree. I think the jury is out and we won't know if they are correct for a long time. It might be they have a lot more deaths but then there is a 2nd wave and that hardly affects them. Or it might affect them in exactly the same way. We don't know.

I was just responding to a poster who seems to think that Sweden in a shining example to be followed and that their policies and results are proving that most countries are doing it wrong. It's not so simple.

[ericthai]

On 4/14/2020 at 1:20 AM, Brunolem said:

Never mind who is in charge, at some point someone has to decide when to reopen... what are the acceptable numbers... 

 

Many countries are in the process of doing it... Austria, Spain, France... and they are in a much more difficult situation than Thailand. 

 

I am not saying that Thailand should reopen tomorrow, but that it should provide a time frame, a planning of sorts, so that the population and the businesses would have some idea of what to expect. 

 

sorry, you're expecting way too much from the govt, planning??....u think too much!!  

 

[DaRoadrunner]

3 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

You want lock-downs til XMas and everyone is safe, with little/no immunity and a hope for no later reinfections.

It looks like it can reinfect even those who have been exposed and ought to have immunity. We also have no vaccine. Open the country too soon and we have no way to stop a 2nd or 3rd wave of virus from circulating, overwhelming hospitals, and shutting things down all over again. Result, we would end up shut down even longer. Total economic collapse and anarchy could result. We must wait. But does our Govt have the sense to see this?

[Monomial]

21 minutes ago, DaRoadrunner said:

It looks like it can reinfect even those who have been exposed and ought to have immunity. We also have no vaccine. Open the country too soon and we have no way to stop a 2nd or 3rd wave of virus from circulating, overwhelming hospitals, and shutting things down all over again. Result, we would end up shut down even longer. Total economic collapse and anarchy could result. We must wait. But does our Govt have the sense to see this?

 

Hopefully what the government has the sense to see is that the minimal additional health risks are nothing compared to the absolute certainty of economic evisceration and misery that is being caused by this failed policy of lockdown.

 

Waiting any longer is absolutely idiotic. Flattening the curve won't work. We have to open back up and deal with the virus as nature intended. Spend any additional money on preparing our hospitals better to handle more patients and give better care to those who need it. It will be cheaper and better in the long run.