UK coronavirus death toll could be 15% higher than previously shown: new data

[Rookiescot]

14 minutes ago, BobBKK said:

If you were younger you might have survived it. Read Dr. Nulands book and educate yourself.

Maybe they should change death certificates to allow for a more encompassing reason for someone passing away.

 

CAUSE OF DEATH: He stopped breathing. 

[stevenl]

16 minutes ago, BobBKK said:

If you were younger you might have survived it. Read Dr. Nulands book and educate yourself.

So you didn't survive the heart attack. Do you think it might have killed you?

[natway09]

This discussion goes back to the HIV / Aids days when a learned gentleman pointed out that very few people actually died from Aids. 

"The virus knows that if the host dies so does it"

People died from other causes after HIV had destroyed the immune system making it nearly impossible for a 3rd stage patient to recover from even a common cold

[Krataiboy]

19 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

Yes this is a serious issue. Its because of lack of testing kits available.

However given the contagiousness of corona I imagine single deaths from it in places like care homes will be rare.

More likely you will see a cluster of deaths happening at the same time and from that it is reasonable to conclude the actual cause of death given the symptoms are quite well defined.

Let's stop "imagining" and "reasonably concluding" and insist on all suspected care home COVID deaths being subject to proper testing, including viral load count.

[Thingamabob]

.....or lower if you subtract those who recovered, and those who would have died from other causes anyway. Broadcasting and print media not interested. They just  want panic.

[sawadee1947]

19 hours ago, Forethat said:

guess the real issue is why they weren't tested and brought to hospital

No tests, no vacant beds with ventilator. BoJo got the last one.... 

[pagan1]

Under reported by 15% ??? My simple mind suggests more like 300 %. Hopefully some of you bright sparks have some time on your hands and could look at the ONS Report. Their most recent data is for WE 3 April and lists 16,387 deaths (All reasons). This is against a 5yr average of 10,305. So against the 5 yr average we are up by about 6000. Compare this with the number of deaths reported by the government during the same period or Covid (about 2000). I appreciate that the government are only reporting confirmed hospital deaths (Covid tested & confirmed) but if you were to extrapolate to the current time frame. Government report around 700 daily deaths (aprox 5000 a week) Does this suggest when we see the ONS data for WE 17 April we will see 15,000 a week above the 5 yr average ??? Are we in a bigger hole than we are being told ? Forgive my simplistic approach but would welcome thoughts & comments

[neverere]

18 hours ago, Crazy Alex said:

I like how another poster put it in another thread, something to the effect of "China has miraculously decreased deaths in other countries due to diabetes, heart disease and other ailments to near zero!"

 

Sadly, what it will come down to is how to sensationalize the virus as much as possible, with actual facts and science being pretty much a lost priority at this point

What is being discussed here is exactly the opposite of your concern. It seems that some deaths due to Covid-19 are not being included in the official numbers. Exactly how many we may never know. 

[dunroaming]

20 hours ago, Forethat said:

Totally.

But suspicions of COVID-19 or a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection doesn't mean it was the cause of death,

 

I guess the real issue is why they weren't tested and brought to hospital.

Yes that is true.  Part of the difficulty is when does Cov-19 become the cause rather than a contributing factor.  Initially when deaths were being reported it would often refer to "underlying medical conditions".  So at some point it has to be considered the reason for the death rather than just contributing to it.  I know a few people who received a letter from the government saying they were in the high risk category.  These tended to be those with respiratory problems but also one I know who is a cancer survivor.

[adammike]

1 hour ago, Thingamabob said:

.....or lower if you subtract those who recovered, and those who would have died from other causes anyway. Broadcasting and print media not interested. They just  want panic.

It's about the amount of people who die,as others have tried to explain.From the week ending 3 April the deaths are 6000 more than would be expected over that week.Its starting to look like the government are using the lies and statistics dead cat tactics.

[Forethat]

22 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

Yes that is true.  Part of the difficulty is when does Cov-19 become the cause rather than a contributing factor.  Initially when deaths were being reported it would often refer to "underlying medical conditions".  So at some point it has to be considered the reason for the death rather than just contributing to it.  I know a few people who received a letter from the government saying they were in the high risk category.  These tended to be those with respiratory problems but also one I know who is a cancer survivor.

From a death certificate perspective (and ultimately a data entity) where cause of death is entered, COVID-19 will never be entered as the condition leading directly to death. This will be 'pneumonitis', 'sepsis', 'acute renal failure' or similar in most cases involving a SARS-CoV-2 infection. COVID-19 will be entered as the condition leading to the direct cause of death on the death certificate if the infection has been confirmed (tested). If SARS-CoV-2 is NOT confirmed, COVID-19 will be indicated as a suspected significant condition contributing to death. 'Suspected' is the keyword here, caused by the lack of testing.

 

 

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, Forethat said:

From a death certificate perspective (and ultimately a data entity) where cause of death is entered, COVID-19 will never be entered as the condition leading directly to death. This will be 'pneumonitis', 'sepsis', 'acute renal failure' or similar in most cases involving a SARS-CoV-2 infection. COVID-19 will be entered as the condition leading to the direct cause of death on the death certificate if the infection has been confirmed (tested). If SARS-CoV-2 is NOT confirmed, COVID-19 will be indicated as a suspected significant condition contributing to death. 'Suspected' is the keyword here, caused by the lack of testing.

 

 

 

 

Wrong:

 

The BMA have procedures for doctors and coroners to follow which have been recently been amended in response to COVID-19.

 

Of particular note is the fact COVID-19 is a ‘Notifiable Disease’.

 

https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/covid-19/practical-guidance/covid-19-death-certification-and-cremation-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic

[Rimmer]

A ridiculous troll video has been removed, this is trolling and will get you a posting suspension at this time as we do not have the time to mess with rubbish such as this.

[Rookiescot]

5 hours ago, dunroaming said:

Yes that is true.  Part of the difficulty is when does Cov-19 become the cause rather than a contributing factor.  Initially when deaths were being reported it would often refer to "underlying medical conditions".  So at some point it has to be considered the reason for the death rather than just contributing to it.  I know a few people who received a letter from the government saying they were in the high risk category.  These tended to be those with respiratory problems but also one I know who is a cancer survivor.

This is the point. Would that person have died today if they did not have corona virus? In the vast majority of cases the answer is yes. They might only have lasted a few more months regardless but what tipped them over the edge is actually corona.

[7by7]

14 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Wrong:

 

The BMA have procedures for doctors and coroners to follow which have been recently been amended in response to COVID-19.

 

Of particular note is the fact COVID-19 is a ‘Notifiable Disease’.

 

https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/covid-19/practical-guidance/covid-19-death-certification-and-cremation-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic

Indeed. 

 

One must wonder why the government originally only announced figures for the the hospital cases. 

 

Incompetence, or a deliberate attempt to conceal the real figures by Cummings and his political puppets? 

[7by7]

"A leaked letter seen by the BBC has revealed an extensive list of concerns about how the social care sector is coping with the coronavirus crisis.

The letter raises fears about funding, testing, personal protective equipment (PPE) and the shielding scheme for vulnerable people."

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-52304918 

[Forethat]

Extraordinary how people on here fail to read and comprehend what other posters write. This time it seems that someone has made that same fatal mistake. Again.

 

As I wrote in an earlier post #13:

"I should also point out that we have issued clear instructions to doctors that COVID-19 is an accepted direct or underlying cause when certifying death. With that in mind, I'm intrigued as to the notion that COVID-19 is 'mentioned' on the death certificate as oppose to stated as cause of death."

 

The BMA guidance in question refers to a guidance issued by NHS which refers to...guess what? The instructions (or guidance, rather) WE have issued. ????

 

It gets more than silly when I post information that is 100% accurate, only to see someone attempt to contradict that information by referring to another organisation; one that that operates under the very rules and guidelines I previously referred to. Especially when I work for the organisation in question. 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877302/guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf

 

I have absolutely no hope that every single poster on here will comprehend this, but for what it's worth:

 

1. If every doctor issued death certificates and stated "COVID-19" as the direct cause of death (in cases where COVID-19 is proven and not) we wouldn't be having this conversation. When COVID-19 is the condition leading to the direct cause of death it will be entered on the death certificate as the condition leading to the direct cause of death. Like this:

 

 

2. When COVID-19 is not proven, you will have search far and wide to find a death certificate where COVID-19 is stated as the direct cause of death, even though that cause of death is allowed. This is the reason for the statistical conundrum. Our guidance:

Quote

For example, if before death the patient had symptoms typical of COVID19 infection, but the test result has not been received, it would be satisfactory to give ‘COVID-19’ as the cause of death, tick Box B and then share the test result when it becomes available. In the circumstances of there being no swab, it is satisfactory to apply clinical judgement.

 

You're asking why the hospital only announce the numbers for the cases where confirmed COVID-19 was stated as the cause of death? Because a majority of patients who die in a care home, hospice or similar have not been tested and the doctor didn't put "COVID-19" as the condition directly causing death or condition leading to it! Note that a suspected condition isn't 'Notifiable'. That's the statistical conundrum. My best guess is that "COVID-19" is 'mentioned' in section II (see image above) on a majority of these cases. But I don't know. 

 

To be perfectly honest, I'd be more worried about how many potential cases there are where COVID-19 is NOT mentioned on the death certificate.

[Thongkorn]

10 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 

"A leaked letter seen by the BBC has revealed an extensive list of concerns about how the social care sector is coping with the coronavirus crisis.

The letter raises fears about funding, testing, personal protective equipment (PPE) and the shielding scheme for vulnerable people."

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-52304918 

And you belive anything the Bias British Corporation says,

[BobBKK]

On 4/15/2020 at 9:19 AM, stevenl said:

So you didn't survive the heart attack. Do you think it might have killed you?

He was 89 when he passed away but it wasn't linked to his age.  LOL. Educate yourself.

[faraday]

MI5.

[Chomper Higgot]

5 hours ago, BobBKK said:

He was 89 when he passed away but it wasn't linked to his age.  LOL. Educate yourself.

 

Correlation is not causation.

[Rimmer]

Off topic posts reported and removed also replies

[Chomper Higgot]

“Unlike the daily data published by the government that show only deaths in hospitals, Tuesday’s figures include deaths in the community, such as at nursing homes.”

 

This is the issue, data from deaths in the community (outside of hospitals) is and has been submitted by the doctors certifying deaths, the Government have not been reporting those deaths, reporting only deaths in hospitals.

 

The Government needs to explain why.

[Forethat]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Once again, it’s not a ‘statistical conundrum’.

 

Basing your own argument on a twitter account is not a good excuse for why the Government representative doesn’t have the correct data.

 

It wasn’t you who linked to the procedures for recording deaths, that was me and I did so to demonstrate the holes in your earlier weak arguments.

I clearly described the procedure for issuing a death certificate, with 100% accuracy.

YOU, on the other hand, have demonstrated clearly that you don't understand what a death certificate is. You tend to believe it's a one liner. And for what it's worth; it's not the statistician who decides cause of death, just as I've previously told you.

 

This gets rather ridiculous when I tell you how certain things work, only to see you post a link that confirms exactly what I've said. And then you claim I've been proven wrong?

 

Quote

I should also point out that we have issued clear instructions to doctors that COVID-19 is an accepted direct or underlying cause when certifying death. With that in mind, I'm intrigued as to the notion that COVID-19 is 'mentioned' on the death certificate as oppose to stated as cause of death. 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877302/guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf

 

To stay on topic:

The reason why the government cannot account for care home deaths caused by COVID-19 is that the deaths are not recorded as such as long as they aren't tested. Having a "hunch" isn't enough. In cases where the patient has been tested but not been confirmed positive they CAN state COVID-19 as direct cause of death and later share the result. In cases where they HAVE NOT been tested they are told to use clinical judgement. I can GUARANTEE that very few, if any, doctors will enter COVID-19 as the direct cause of death in these situations. Instead, this WILL be "pneumonitis", "acute renal failure", "sepsis" or something similar. That's the issue. They're not tested and therefore the death certificate doesn't indicate that they died from COVID-19. As a result, they are not included in the data.

 

Is it sinking in?

Edited April 20, 2020 by Forethat

[Forethat]

On 4/16/2020 at 1:51 AM, 7by7 said:

Indeed. 

 

One must wonder why the government originally only announced figures for the the hospital cases. 

 

Incompetence, or a deliberate attempt to conceal the real figures by Cummings and his political puppets? 

Have you not been paying attention to what I've written?

 

I'll clarify once more:

The reason why the government cannot account for care home deaths caused by COVID-19 is that the deaths are not recorded as such as long as they aren't tested. Having a "hunch" isn't enough. In cases where the patient has been tested but not been confirmed positive they CAN state COVID-19 as direct cause of death and later share the result. In cases where they HAVE NOT been tested they are told to use clinical judgement. I can GUARANTEE that very few, if any, doctors will enter COVID-19 as the direct cause of death in these situations. Instead, this WILL be "pneumonitis", "acute renal failure", "sepsis" or something similar. That's the issue. They're not tested and therefore the death certificate doesn't indicate that they died from COVID-19. As a result, they are not included in the data.

 

Now you can stop wondering why the government didn't announce the figures for care homes.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Forethat

[BobBKK]

3 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Correlation is not causation.

I respectfully urge you to read the book (the classic on death and dying). The vast majority who get C19 will self isolate and recover and I'd be amazed if the mortality rate is anywhere near 1%. Most who pass will have other health conditions and be Elderly (not all but most).

[Chomper Higgot]

34 minutes ago, Forethat said:

I clearly described the procedure for issuing a death certificate, with 100% accuracy.

YOU, on the other hand, have demonstrated clearly that you don't understand what a death certificate is. You tend to believe it's a one liner. And for what it's worth; it's not the statistician who decides cause of death, just as I've previously told you.

 

This gets rather ridiculous when I tell you how certain things work, only to see you post a link that confirms exactly what I've said. And then you claim I've been proven wrong?

 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877302/guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf

 

To stay on topic:

The reason why the government cannot account for care home deaths caused by COVID-19 is that the deaths are not recorded as such as long as they aren't tested. Having a "hunch" isn't enough. In cases where the patient has been tested but not been confirmed positive they CAN state COVID-19 as direct cause of death and later share the result. In cases where they HAVE NOT been tested they are told to use clinical judgement. I can GUARANTEE that very few, if any, doctors will enter COVID-19 as the direct cause of death in these situations. Instead, this WILL be "pneumonitis", "acute renal failure", "sepsis" or something similar. That's the issue. They're not tested and therefore the death certificate doesn't indicate that they died from COVID-19. As a result, they are not included in the data.

 

Is it sinking in?

You need to the tell the ONS, they have data on Covid-19 deaths and they include those deaths in the national totals.

 

The Government gets its data from the ONS, but are only reporting deaths in hospitals.

 

The question is why did they choose to do so?

[RuamRudy]

31 minutes ago, Forethat said:

Have you not been paying attention to what I've written?

 

I'll clarify once more:

The reason why the government cannot account for care home deaths caused by COVID-19 is that the deaths are not recorded as such as long as they aren't tested. Having a "hunch" isn't enough. In cases where the patient has been tested but not been confirmed positive they CAN state COVID-19 as direct cause of death and later share the result. In cases where they HAVE NOT been tested they are told to use clinical judgement. I can GUARANTEE that very few, if any, doctors will enter COVID-19 as the direct cause of death in these situations. Instead, this WILL be "pneumonitis", "acute renal failure", "sepsis" or something similar. That's the issue. They're not tested and therefore the death certificate doesn't indicate that they died from COVID-19. As a result, they are not included in the data.

 

Now you can stop wondering why the government didn't announce the figures for care homes.

Deaths in care homes in Scotland where COVID-19 is suspected as being the cause of death are being recorded. It may be imprecise, but it is taking place. 

 

Scottish Government changes how COVID-19 deaths are counted

 

 "information on the daily number of deaths will be taken from National Records of Scotland official death registrations, in addition to data from individual health boards.

 

...“suspected” deaths, where coronavirus or COVID-19 are mentioned on the death certificate, will be counted. These will include deaths which occur both in hospital and in the community. "

[Forethat]

4 minutes ago, BobBKK said:

I respectfully urge you to read the book (the classic on death and dying). The vast majority who get C19 will self isolate and recover and I'd be amazed if the mortality rate is anywhere near 1%. Most who pass will have other health conditions and be Elderly (not all but most).

The vaccine clinical trial at Oxford University began their screening process this morning. I think this is incredibly interesting for exactly the reason you mention. This is, as far as I know, the first time when they bring in (1000 maybe??) people who all believe that they have never been infected. I doubt the numbers will be published before the result of the trial, but it'd be incredibly interesting to know...

[Forethat]

7 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Deaths in care homes in Scotland where COVID-19 is suspected as being the cause of death are being recorded. It may be imprecise, but it is taking place. 

 

Scottish Government changes how COVID-19 deaths are counted

 

 "information on the daily number of deaths will be taken from National Records of Scotland official death registrations, in addition to data from individual health boards.

 

...“suspected” deaths, where coronavirus or COVID-19 are mentioned on the death certificate, will be counted. These will include deaths which occur both in hospital and in the community. "

Yup.

That's how easy it is - issue a report where it is clearly stated that there are X deaths. For clarity, the report should clarify that out of the deaths, Y was confirmed COVID-19 and Z suspected COVID-19.

 

But then there's the real elephant in the room that I mentioned earlier:

"To be perfectly honest, I'd be more worried about how many potential cases there are where COVID-19 is NOT mentioned on the death certificate."