Follow the science....

[4MyEgo]

18 hours ago, teatime101 said:

Social distancing has been highly effective in reducing the spread of the virus globally. The potential for a pandemic with very high mortality rates is massively increased if we allow people to mix. It could kill tens of millions worldwide. Not the rich, of course. They have the means to protect themselves and their families.

What evidence do we have that social distancing is working, if I hear correctly there are many countries that are not testing, Thailand is one of them, others have tested in the millions.

 

What we know is that we can not contain it, so why not allow the herd out to make the rest of us immune, isn't that why they call it herd immunity ?

 

Businesses have suffered massive losses, as have shareholders holding stocks in stock markets worldwide, millions out of work, no incomes, economies about to go into recessions.

 

This has got to be the first time this has ever occured, I mean in the beginning they didn't know what they were dealing with, no they do, so why not let it play out with best practise precautions possible, e.g. protect the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, including toddlers, although we know we cannot protect everyone.

 

I don't believe the academics know what is going on using models, projections, we know Covid-19 spreads as does the flu, albeit it is more contagious, but it does kill as does influenza, and it's mainly the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, sel-la-vee, that is life, but once herd immunity is done, the virus has to mutate and or become less of a problem, as for a vaccine, all and good if one is made, but then you have to convince people to take it, not force them, as for influenza, there is a vaccine but only 50% of people take it, so what is the point, this Covide-19 will be lingering for a while unless we build up herd immunity period, as for millions dying, I doubt that very much.

 

In the meantime, we have people desperate for food, and others in arrears with all sorts of payments on their mortgages, car payments etc etc, because they don't have jobs to go to, businesses closing or suffering, and economies taking the brunt of it, somewhere down the line, someone is going to make a hell of a lot of money out of this and I wonder who it is, this is big play at hand, and it's not China IMO.

 

[Yinn]

1 hour ago, uwe_rayong said:

 

 

Italy has tested every person that died within the last couple of weeks for Covid 19. If a 83 year old person, with a history of two strokes and diabetes was tested positive it counted as a "Covid 19" victim.

 

Now we see that 54% of the people that died have been 80 years or older.

If you add the group of "70 -79 years" you'll  get 84%. Pre-existing  illnesses are not the exception but the norm in this age group.

 

 

1.) If a person is 80 years, it is just more likely that they will die. That is one of the reasons a life insurance can get quite expensive or difficult to get , once one reached 80 years.????

2.) The Covid 19 tests on people that died recently, only confirms that they been infected with the virus. It does not proof that they died because of the virus, just with the virus.

 

So of course, some of those in the group of 84% (70 years or older) may have lived another couple of weeks, month or some may even years  and now they departed more early then absolutely necessary. but are the dramatic and draconian restrictions really worth effort the whole world puts in effect since several weeks and are we all ready to extend this for the next couple of month or years ? The situation will not change. 
Covid 19 can not be stopped by now, the cat is out of the box.

Only a vaccine , herd immunity or a very effective medication to cure the sick, could end this.

 

If the numbers in Thailand are only somewhat accurate (by that I mean, even if in realty 300%-400% more infections are existing in Thailand) it is still very low compared to other countries.

What happens when Thailand reopen the borders again ?

The visiting age group of 0-50 years are may infected with covid 19, and often totally asymptomatic!

That means they not feel sick, not have fever but still are Infectious, especially in the early stage (day 1-4) of the infection.

So, once the borders are open, Thailand will probably get a second wave of infections. It is inevitable. 

 

It can only be slowed down but not be stopped. 

 

Is it worth to sacrifice our way of live? 

Sacrifice our freedom? 

Kill the economy. Force millions of people to beg for alms. 

Millions of people lose there jobs, can't pay there rent, have to send there children hungry to bed and can't pay the school fees.

 

In my opinion the price we pay to extend the live of the most vulnerable persons, is too high. 

 

This is the "new normal" :

 

 

 

 

Flu Season in Thailand 2017 - 60321 person died of influenza and pneumonia. Source WHO / worldlifeexpectancy:

 

 

So if one compares the Covid 19 situation in Italy in 2020 (one of the worst affected countries) with the flu season 2017 in Thailand, Thailand had about 230% more fatalities in 2017 because of the flu.  Thailand may has something like 15% more population, but health care systems is not as high developed as in Italy.

 

In 2018 - 18000 people died of HIV in Thailand / source avert.org. Nobody was really interested in that....

 

 

But now: 

 

 

Songkran 2019 - 174 people died in the first three days in traffic accidents.

 

In my opinion is the price we pay, to extend the live of the most vulnerable people, too high.

 

 

If you loose you job/money will think like that.

if your mother die, you will not.

 

Different opinions. 

[rvaviator]

6 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

83% of the deaths in Italy were 70yrs old and up allegedly... 

Chances of the majority of them having an underlying health issue is quite high.

Not that my observation may count for much - When I have been in Italy - 'old men' does not strike me as particularly healthy - High intake of alcohol and smoking.  The diet may be better than in US (less fast food etc...) ... In any case = old people generally have health issues - some more.. some less ....

[chessman]

2 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

What we know is that we can not contain it

South Korea?
Taiwan?

[rvaviator]

5 hours ago, chessman said:

I think you are spot on. You can also see the follow up news report from a local news network. In the video the doctor talks a lot about how the health authorities agree with him but it turns out they don't.

I do not put much weight on that issue  - The doc talks to the guy from the health authority - Was it on the phone ? .. You can just imagine how the call would have gone .. yea .. yea .. ok ok .. what shall we do .. great idea .. keep up the good work .. bla bla ..  Was anything written down as official minutes ?  No .. by the sounds of it .

 

I am sure both of them was stressed .. the doc from his work and the person from the health authority about the general situation ... They both think differently and maybe the Doc thought one thing and the health guy something different. 

 

Would not be the first time two people on the phone did not agree on what they thought they had agree on after the call ...

 

 

[chessman]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/virologist-christian-drosten-germany-coronavirus-expert-interview
 

Interview with head of the German public health institute’s reference lab on coronaviruses.

 

sample question:

Q: Is all the science being done around this coronavirus good science?
A: No! Early on, in February, there were many interesting preprints [scientific papers that have not yet been peer-reviewed] around. Now you can read through 50 before you find something that’s actually solid and interesting. A lot of research resources are being wasted.

 

it’s a shame there wasn’t a follow up question about this, What kind of research would he like to see more of and which does he think is wasting resources.

 

 

[mauGR1]

6 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

The 'regular' science guys will dismiss me embracing the common sense medical approach those 2 doctors advocated, and the conspiracy guys will challenge my naivety for not buying the dark conspiracy narrative.

I have just a little question for you, are you having a look at the mainstream media or the American tv ?

And are they giving some space to dissenting theories ?

I ask, because i have the impression that those of us who live in Thailand have a different perception of the reality than those in the countries where covid is (said to be) so lethal.

[Peter Denis]

2 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

I have just a little question for you, are you having a look at the mainstream media or the American tv ?

And are they giving some space to dissenting theories ?

I ask, because i have the impression that those of us who live in Thailand have a different perception of the reality than those in the countries where covid is (said to be) so lethal.

I am not a US citizen, but when I look at the News there is a fair share of American media in it.

I read articles from many sources, e.g. the New York Times, Huffington Post and the Guardian.

I don't watch Fox News, but occasionally watch news video channels like CNN, MSNBC and TYT.

So a main-stream but at same time somewhat 'leftist' profile.

 

As I wrote I will get bashed by all sides for my opinion.

- I don't endorse the panickers that favor social distancing, mouthmasks, ventilators and lock-downs > in other words the regular mainstream media

- I surely don't endorse the Trump administration, because anything Trump does has only one purpose and that is to benefit the Donald and his re-election chances or business interests

- And I absolutely don't endorse the conspiracy alt-righters that see the Covid-situation at best as a Democratic Party hoax and at its worst as a Dark Conspiracy Theory by the Illuminati.

 

Those doctors in the video when talking from their medical knowledge/experience make a lot of sense, and doing so they go against the regular mainstream media narrative.  But I get a creepy feeling when at the end they start talking about the politics of the situation, and are then venting their far-right beliefs.

We live in confusing times...

[teatime101]

5 hours ago, zhounan said:

Science wanted to burn Galileo Galilei at the stake

LOL. You have no idea what you're talking about.

[chessman]

Here’s a world leader who has a science background. It gives you a good idea of how difficult and delicate the problem is.

 

and remember, if there is no social distancing then the R0 number of this disease is thought to be over 2.

[timendres]

4 hours ago, Yinn said:

If you loose you job/money will think like that.

if your mother die, you will not.

 

Different opinions. 

And what if you lose your job, all your savings, and your mother dies?

It is not an either/or question.

[timendres]

10 hours ago, Skallywag said:

The great depression lasted 10 years, we are just 40 days of restriction so far, big difference

I have no idea how those 5,000 dominoes fell... I only pushed over one of them.

[mauGR1]

52 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

But I get a creepy feeling when at the end they start talking about the politics of the situation, and are then venting their far-right beliefs.

We live in confusing times...

Well, i watched the last 11 minutes of the video, and could not find any far-right beliefs.

Confusing times indeed.

It seems to me that the whole world is on the way of becoming a totalitarian state, with the blessings of the self-proclaimed leftists.

When i was young, leftists ideals were ideals of freedom, funny how things change.

[LomSak27]

14 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

What we know is that we can not contain it, so why not allow the herd out to make the rest of us immune, isn't that why they call it herd immunity ?

As with a lot of what posters are calling "science" in this thread, it seems sketchy at best. A real big problem with the herd idea, so fashionable these days. What if Wuhan Virus doesn't want to play herd games? 

 

"GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Saturday that there was currently "no evidence" that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second coronavirus infection."

 

 

Wooops ---- If you are big with the herd, get the real herd.

 

 

[Odysseus123]

3 minutes ago, LomSak27 said:

As with a lot of what posters are calling "science" in this thread, it seems sketchy at best. A real big problem with the herd idea, so fashionable these days. What if Wuhan Virus doesn't want to play herd games? 

 

"GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Saturday that there was currently "no evidence" that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second coronavirus infection."

 

 

Wooops ---- If you are big with the herd, get the real herd.

 

 

Yes.I agree-in this case the facts are too "new" to draw any firm conclusions as yet-which is what most reputable scientists and researchers are trying to tell us.

Therefore some types of "barriers" will need to remain place tho' how rigid these barriers might be will be up to the individual gov'ts of the various nation states.One presumes that they will communicate and co-operate with each other and the WHO in order to prevent a possible "second wave" in the future.

[Skallywag]

21 hours ago, sucit said:

If you do not have the wherewithal to know what happens when an economy gets shutdown and people go jobless it is difficult to have a discussion. 

It has already happened, the economy has been partially shut down.

Just trying to be a bit positive rather than taking the "sky is falling" attitude. 

 

[Berkshire]

11 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

- I surely don't endorse the Trump administration, because anything Trump does has only one purpose and that is to benefit the Donald and his re-election chances or business interests

For a non-American, you have a much better understanding of US politics than most Americans....well, much better than any Trump supporter.

[Peter Denis]

10 hours ago, mauGR1 said:

Well, i watched the last 11 minutes of the video, and could not find any far-right beliefs.

Confusing times indeed.

It seems to me that the whole world is on the way of becoming a totalitarian state, with the blessings of the self-proclaimed leftists.

When i was young, leftists ideals were ideals of freedom, funny how things change.

in the video doctor Ericsson at the end hinted at least 2 times to the political motivation of the present measures, and his own stance in this.  But it's even clearer in the short (12') part-2 of the video which can be found on YouTube.  

I respect the sensible approach of those 2 doctors as well as their patience in making their case when answering the questions (actually more the opinions) of the reporters.

Note: I am also not sure whether their comparison of the approach taken by Norway and Sweden supports their conclusion that the number of deaths per capita with Covid-19 in Sweden which are 5 times higher than those of Norway, is statistically insignificant.  Mind you, I'd like to believe it as I prefer Sweden's approach, but want to keep an open mind and not massage the figures to support my opinions.  And there is actually no need to do that, as their immune system argument is strong enough in itself to question the present Everybody Prisoner approach.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

19 hours ago, mauGR1 said:

Look, millions of people are already on the brink, do you think they will eat what, while they are increasingly harassed by this scientific dictatorship ?

I don't believe the tests anyway, one reason being, it's apparently possible to heal from the contagion and get infected again. We know already that huge numbers have been infected, and healthy people have not much to worry.

No, sorry, you are not going anywhere dragging on this show, instead a massive economic relief plan has to start immediately, or else.

It's more a political dictatorship being advised by a small group of selected scientists. I don't think anyone voted on the lockdown here. It was just imposed with 2 days warning. MPs are also locked down.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, Skallywag said:

It has already happened, the economy has been partially shut down.

Just trying to be a bit positive rather than taking the "sky is falling" attitude. 

 

It's not the falling that is the problem; it's when it hits the ground that the .

It won't hit the ground till all the lockdowns end. At present we are in stasis. We may come to think of the lockdowns as the calm before the storm.

[Berkshire]

5 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It's more a political dictatorship being advised by a small group of selected scientists. I don't think anyone voted on the lockdown here. It was just imposed with 2 days warning. MPs are also locked down.

Firstly, I'm not a pro-lockdown guy by any stretch.  But if you consider the most important responsibilities of a gov leader, health and safety would be way up there.  Most of these "elected" leaders are not doctors or experts, so of course they would have to rely on those that are.  It would appear that doctors around the world agree on the course of action, so it's not really a small group of scientists calling all the shots. 

 

One thing I will say is that doctors tend to err on the side of safety/caution.  So is it overkill it some cases?  Absolutely.

[mauGR1]

20 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It's more a political dictatorship being advised by a small group of selected scientists. I don't think anyone voted on the lockdown here. It was just imposed with 2 days warning. MPs are also locked down.

Possibly, one have just to look at the world media, it really looks like a bad joke.

[248900_1469958220]

So...the video violates Youtubes terms.......VERY interesting!

[Peter Denis]

5 minutes ago, 248900_1469958220 said:

So...the video violates Youtubes terms.......VERY interesting!

Yes, not available on YouTube anymore,

But here's another link to it >

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/other/dr-erickson-covid-19-briefing/vi-BB133JTK

Note: I have mixed feelings about the end of the video, but they make some very sensible points so worth watching.

[cornishcarlos]

12 hours ago, 248900_1469958220 said:

So...the video violates Youtubes terms.......VERY interesting!

 

To be expected... People that pay for these media outlets don't want any opposing views. 

It wasn't proven that their data was inaccurate, even though some other scientists said it "might" not be..

[thaibeachlovers]

On 4/27/2020 at 3:00 PM, Berkshire said:

Firstly, I'm not a pro-lockdown guy by any stretch.  But if you consider the most important responsibilities of a gov leader, health and safety would be way up there.  Most of these "elected" leaders are not doctors or experts, so of course they would have to rely on those that are.  It would appear that doctors around the world agree on the course of action, so it's not really a small group of scientists calling all the shots. 

 

One thing I will say is that doctors tend to err on the side of safety/caution.  So is it overkill it some cases?  Absolutely.

Some scientists in NZ disagree with the way the government is dealing with the virus, but the government ( or at least the few MPs still working ) is apparently not taking advice from them. By the governments OWN criteria we should be in level 2 now, but in level 3.9 for at least 2 more weeks and no guarantee that we will go down a level then.

[cornishcarlos]

8 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Some scientists in NZ disagree with the way the government is dealing with the virus, but the government ( or at least the few MPs still working ) is apparently not taking advice from them. By the governments OWN criteria we should be in level 2 now, but in level 3.9 for at least 2 more weeks and no guarantee that we will go down a level then.

 

Because it's not just Thailand that is using this as a convenient cover to assert control...

Many governments are pushing the limits, I believe, so any future threat of a lock down will bring the populace back in line quick sharp. 

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Because it's not just Thailand that is using this as a convenient cover to assert control...

Many governments are pushing the limits, I believe, so any future threat of a lock down will bring the populace back in line quick sharp. 

No disagreement from me on that.

I don't know a single person that has been infected, and no one they know has been infected. It's all just what they say on the radio, and on here that I even know it is happening.

 

any future threat of a lock down will bring the populace back in line quick sharp. 

Perhaps. This lockdown is notable to me for the number of people NOT obeying the diktat. Thousands of people breaking the rules ( or perhaps hundreds of people hundreds of times ), including the NZ minister of health, or so they say on the radio and google finds it too. ( I don't watch tv anymore, it's so rubbish ).

[Skallywag]

4 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Because it's not just Thailand that is using this as a convenient cover to assert control...

Many governments are pushing the limits, I believe, so any future threat of a lock down will bring the populace back in line quick sharp. 

The last sentence seems contradictory.  Why would the government be able to "bring the populace back in line" once we realize this Covid virus threat was overblown in many countries/cities?  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice shame on me. 

Death rates less than the seasonal flu, the "idea" that the elderly and at-risk population should be "protected".  The fact that elderly and at-risk population need to protect themselves and are more prone to an infection/disease is nothing new. 

 

Yes, in the future, families need to realize that going home to see Grandma to give her a hug is a lovely idea,  yet a deadly practice,  science and government cannot save those people 

Yes, in the future 65 - 80 year olds going to a Rolling Stones concert to relive their youth are idiots unnecessarily risking their health,  science or government cannot save them.   

The idea that science and government can save people from their own stupidity is ridiculous, though they seem to spend an inordinate amount of time and funds trying to. 

Yes I see both sides of the "stay at home" situation/solution. 

Yet see the economic hardship problem now as paramount and see no evidence that healthy workers cannot go back to work. The problem in America is that likely 30% of all workers are in fact unhealthy even in their 40's and 50's. 

Edited April 30, 2020 by Skallywag

[cornishcarlos]

3 minutes ago, Skallywag said:

The last sentence seems contradictory.  Why would the government be able to "bring the populace back in line" once we realize this Covid virus threat was overblown in many countries/cities?

 

1. Majority of the people won't realise that.

2. Because governments have police and army at their disposal to enforce control.

3. Even those that realise that it's over reaction, still won't want to have any lock down imposed on them, so more than likely will comply with anything asked to prevent that happening.

 

Look at all the Aussies signing up for the Trace my movement and contacts App !! 

Because they are told that is the quickest way to relax restrictions !!!