This is never going to end

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 hours ago, bwpage3 said:

The US is a big place, some places like New York were hit hard, others like North Dakota none at all.

 Another ill-informed poster:

 

https://www.valleynewslive.com/content/news/-coronavirus-cases-in-North-Dakota-570207801.html

 

Quote

 

There have now been 1,266 cases of coronavirus in North Dakota.

559 people have recovered from COVID-19.

..........

There have been 25 deaths, but the the North Dakota Department of Health is also changing the way it reports deaths connected to COVID-19.

 

 

https://bismarcktribune.com/news/local/health/state-looks-to-relieve-backlog-of-5-000-coronavirus-tests-34-more-cases-reported-in/article_fd19ef09-ebfb-5504-b9c8-b10e2c7bc11d.html

 

Quote

 

State looks to relieve backlog of 5,000 coronavirus tests

The state lab in Bismarck has a backlog of nearly 5,000 coronavirus tests waiting to be processed, including those conducted Saturday at an event in Bismarck, Gov. Doug Burgum announced at a press conference Monday.
 

The governor said the problem arose over the weekend when an order of testing supplies arrived in North Dakota missing some components.

 

 

[chessman]

3 hours ago, Bob A Kneale said:

That's where you're going wrong, as you said yourself, it's the media that's saying this!   If a media outlet has said that "this lockdown is forever" (and I'm pretty sure that none have said that), they're wrong and they don't count when it comes to reality.  It's up to you whether to believe it or not, you're sanity is in your hands, not the media's.

We had a similar discussion previously, the people who were most critical of the mainstream media admitted that they never actually watched it! Whenever I have the misfortune of check news from the far right or left they usually spend half the time telling me how terrible the mainstream media is.

[Ryan754326]

23 hours ago, chessman said:

a few, but the number of Covid deaths not being classified as Covid deaths will be much much more.

 

Look at excess deaths: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html

 

 

I can’t argue that there hasn’t been excess deaths, but when I see statistics indicating that a very high percentage of those excess deaths were people over 70 with at least one pre-existing condition it makes me confident that this won’t be the end of the world for most of us.

What we’re seeing is a lot of excess deaths that would have happened anyway squeezed into a shorter timeframe.
 

[chessman]

12 minutes ago, Ryan754326 said:

I can’t argue that there hasn’t been excess deaths, but when I see statistics indicating that a very high percentage of those excess deaths were people over 70 with at least one pre-existing condition it makes me confident that this won’t be the end of the world for most of us.

What we’re seeing is a lot of excess deaths that would have happened anyway squeezed into a shorter timeframe.

Fair enough,

there are very difficult questions around this and I think the next few months will all be about finding the correct balance between opening up economies and keeping people safe.

[Kinnock]

5 hours ago, Logosone said:

His view is the science.

 

Immunity is the general rule with viral infections.

 

Prof Jon Cohen, emeritus professor of infectious diseases at Brighton and Sussex Medical School, said: 

 

“However, it is very likely, based on other viral infections, that yes, once a person has had the infection they will generally be immune and won’t get it again. There will always be the odd exception, but that is certainly a reasonable expectation.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/the-big-question-over-coronavirus-can-a-person-get-it-twice

 

Yes - and in addition, from The Lancet today, a correction to the WHO statement about immunity:

 

"In a follow up tweet, WHO clarified that it is expected that infection with SARS-CoV-2 will result in some form of immunity"

 

That's why I don't rely on WHO - say something daft, then have to send out a tweet to correct it - not exactly confidence building.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31034-5/fulltext?dgcid=hubspot_email_newsletter_tlcoronavirus20&utm_campaign=tlcoronavirus20&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=87422591&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8Sy5Jv7I2K3nn-gKotnKNKYMesaCs0hGW5Cj22uO0kfv7EEvLRpRNtLjqWUi2NW4N1yyHwFRvZDoaJ_PzYbCQkr7LQ6Q&_hsmi=87422591

[Ryan754326]

4 minutes ago, chessman said:

Fair enough,

there are very difficult questions around this and I think the next few months will all be about finding the correct balance between opening up economies and keeping people safe.

I agree

[vermin on arrival]

25 minutes ago, Ryan754326 said:

I can’t argue that there hasn’t been excess deaths, but when I see statistics indicating that a very high percentage of those excess deaths were people over 70 with at least one pre-existing condition it makes me confident that this won’t be the end of the world for most of us.

What we’re seeing is a lot of excess deaths that would have happened anyway squeezed into a shorter timeframe.
 

If nursing homes had been properly isolated many of these would have been prevented.

[kingdong]

On 5/4/2020 at 5:42 PM, bartender100 said:

End of August this will all be over IMHO, already death rates are falling in the countries ahead of the game, antibody test and vaccines will be getting rolled out, slow lifting of lockdown rules from early June

 

The much hyped Nightingale hospital in London has been mothballed only ever treating

On 5/4/2020 at 5:52 PM, vermin on arrival said:

Yeah it's kind of shocking they set up a special facility with 4,000 beds and it has been shut down.

I saw on tv that they were turning ambulances away because they didn,t have the staff,still 10 out of 10. For Boris in having it commissioned should it be needed.

 

 

 

[bwpage3]

7 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 Another ill-informed poster:

 

https://www.valleynewslive.com/content/news/-coronavirus-cases-in-North-Dakota-570207801.html

 

 

https://bismarcktribune.com/news/local/health/state-looks-to-relieve-backlog-of-5-000-coronavirus-tests-34-more-cases-reported-in/article_fd19ef09-ebfb-5504-b9c8-b10e2c7bc11d.html

 

 

Do the math. Can you understand decimals?

 

There are 380,000,000 people in the US. 225,000 deaths.

 

Do the math.

 

While I am waiting for your answer, all the sit down restaurants in our area have re-opened so its out for Mexican food and Cinco De Maya

[Skallywag]

4 hours ago, bwpage3 said:

Do the math. Can you understand decimals?

 

There are 380,000,000 people in the US. 225,000 deaths.

 

Do the math.

 

While I am waiting for your answer, all the sit down restaurants in our area have re-opened so its out for Mexican food and Cinco De Maya

Only 328 million people in the USA.

Did the math, 225,000 dead in 50 days = 1.65 million per year, so in 10 years that is 16.5 million dead. No worries. 555

Edited May 6, 2020 by Skallywag

[bwpage3]

On 5/6/2020 at 12:09 AM, Skallywag said:

Only 328 million people in the USA.

Did the math, 225,000 dead in 50 days = 1.65 million per year, so in 10 years that is 16.5 million dead. No worries. 555

Are you assuming this is never going to end? Must be. No vaccine in 10 years? Foolish.

 

Only people locked down and bored to death who have nothing better to do than stay on the internet all day and night.

 

 

[mauGR1]

47 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

Are you assuming this is never going to end? Must be. No vaccine in 10 years? Foolish.

 

Only people locked down and bored to death who have nothing better to do than stay on the internet all day and night.

 

 

Nothing foolish, anything can happen. Do you have faith in the vaccine ? Really ?

Personally, i think that if we can give away our liberties and rights so easily, it will be extremely difficult to get them back.

[jimmybcool]

On 5/5/2020 at 5:13 PM, bwpage3 said:

Do the math. Can you understand decimals?

 

There are 380,000,000 people in the US. 225,000 deaths.

 

Do the math.

 

While I am waiting for your answer, all the sit down restaurants in our area have re-opened so its out for Mexican food and Cinco De Maya

My internet search results in 75,000 deaths in the USA.  Perhaps you are using worldwide deaths.  And Skallywag is right.  About 320-330 million in the USA.

[cmarshall]

On 5/4/2020 at 7:10 AM, tribalfusion001 said:

But instead of destroying the health system, the lockdown will destroy 1000s of businesses. The threat of unemployment of a similar scale to the early 1930's is real, anywhere between 4 to 9 million workers have been put on furlough in the UK and business want it exended to September. The current level of unemployment in the UK is 1.5 million, during the early the 1980's unemployment peaked at 3 million in 1982.

 

All it's very well saying Sweden got it wrong, but their economy will survive a lot better.

The Swedish economy has not escaped damage by any means, despite their accepting a higher death rate.

 

In the first scenario (scenario A in the chart below), gross domestic product contracts by 6.9% in 2020 before rebounding to grow 4.6% in 2021. In a more negative prediction (scenario B), GDP could contract by 9.7% and a recovery could be slower with the economy growing 1.7% in 2021. 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

 

[cmarshall]

On 5/4/2020 at 9:54 AM, baansgr said:

We are only a few months into this...Black death went on for 8 years or so, not forgetting there wasn't any healthcare systems in those days...and without the restrictions in place...would the current numbers be more???

The Black Death returned intermittently to Europe for 400 years and still exists in parts of India, Mongolia, and prarie dog towns in the American West.

[cmarshall]

On 5/5/2020 at 1:03 PM, Ryan754326 said:

I can’t argue that there hasn’t been excess deaths, but when I see statistics indicating that a very high percentage of those excess deaths were people over 70 with at least one pre-existing condition it makes me confident that this won’t be the end of the world for most of us.

What we’re seeing is a lot of excess deaths that would have happened anyway squeezed into a shorter timeframe.
 

Very original thinking.  From that point of view no epidemic matters at all, since everyone dies eventually.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/5/2020 at 4:12 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The official numbers of virus infections as reported by the government are widely believed to be a vast undercount of actual infection cases, because of the lack of comprehensive testing and testing policies.

OR, they could be accurate. So far the reaction to the virus has ensured many millions more than would have been affected by the virus are going to suffer for a very long time.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/5/2020 at 4:33 PM, NCC1701A said:

this is the BTS this morning in Bangkok after a train malfunction. 

i am using this time to get ready for the second wave to hit. 

thanks for Richard Barrow for the photos.   

good luck everybody.

The insanity that is LOS. In Pattaya bars are closed because people might sit too close together, but in Bkk................................ Oh they are wearing masks so that's all OK then 555555555555555

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/5/2020 at 6:17 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Because the "unknown" people who get it, even if they have little or no symptoms, are just as contagious as those with symptoms. Meaning they will spread it to others, who will spread it to others, etc etc... 

 

At least when people get visibly sick, they probably will tend to take some precautions like keeping away from others, wearing a mask, etc.... But it's the asymptomatic people who run around socializing carelessly with others who end up spreading the disease even more.

 

Which is a good thing because it ensures herd immunity is reached faster and most of us can go back to a normal life. The at risk which are isolated will have to wait for a vaccine.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/5/2020 at 6:38 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

There's no credible medical or scientific evidence thus far that someone becoming infected with COVID now automatically acquires immunity from future/repeat infections.

If that is true we are doomed, doomed I say. Impossible to stay in lockdown.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/6/2020 at 12:08 AM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

that's his opinion based on past history with other diseases -- not any documented human experience or research with COVID.

 

Something being "the general rule" doesn't make it true for COVID.

 

Sooooo, if you are correct and no one becomes immune, what is your plan? You realise that if no one develops immunity from having the disease, a vaccine isn't going to work, don't you?

Lockdown forever? Do tell.

[worgeordie]

It will end,everything has an ending,nothing is permanent,

just stay safe,don't spread panic.

regards Worgeordie

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Sooooo, if you are correct and no one becomes immune, what is your plan? You realise that if no one develops immunity from having the disease, a vaccine isn't going to work, don't you?

Lockdown forever? Do tell.

 

I never said NO ONE would develop immunity...  I did say there's ZERO scientific evidence thus far that EVERYONE who contracts CV will automatically gain complete, permanent immunity.  That's for folks who somehow believe once you've contracted it you somehow will get a lifetime free pass.... Don't think so!

 

Right now, AFAICT, the scientists/medical experts really don't know. They know the human body develops antibodies to the virus... But how much any individual develops and whether those levels will be enough to prevent future infections, and for how long, seem unknowns at present.

 

And then there's the issue of potential virus mutation, like with the season flu... Where the bug that's going around this year isn't the same one that comes around the following year, meaning the vaccine has to change and be re-administered...  Again, all unknowns as regards the current CV.

 

[innosiem]

On 5/4/2020 at 1:28 PM, DeusExMachinaBKK said:

So sick of hearing people compare deaths from covid to crashes or whatever Yes, cars kill more people, except cars don’t follow you home and try to kill your family and friends or anyone to interact with directly or indirectly.

and the flu..........?????

(non fudged numbers)

[chessman]

22 minutes ago, innosiem said:

and the flu..........?

the (high) flu death numbers that are usually given are the ones where death data has been analyzed and an estimated number is reached. Most of these deaths were never diagnosed with the flu.

 

A similar thing will happen with Covid 19. When death data is analyzed it will be a lot higher than the current death toll.

 

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

[Ryan754326]

On 5/8/2020 at 8:07 AM, cmarshall said:

Very original thinking.  From that point of view no epidemic matters at all, since everyone dies eventually.

That’s not what I’m saying at all, and your interpretation of my post is ridiculous. 
If this virus was killing even 10 percent of all people who became infected, we would have an unimaginable problem on our hands, but that’s not the case, is it?
As the stats clearly show, Covid19 is, for the most part, killing a small percentage of elderly people with pre-existing health conditions, and in many cases, doctors aren’t even sure whether they died from the disease itself, or just happened to have it when they died from something else. Better count them in the stats just to be safe though, right?
Don’t have enough test kits to waste on dead people? Just assume, and write Covid on their death certificate, okay?

People in this group can, and do die in large numbers every year, from the flu and many other viral or bacterial infections, but people have accepted that as the natural course of life.
Nobody is saying that old people dying is okay, or that we should just ignore it and let the virus run wild, but shutting down the economy for months while people lose their livelihoods is not a realistic, long-term solution for something that the majority get over without having to seek medical assistance.
If we were dealing with the plague, then it might be a reasonable course of action.
 

 

Edited May 9, 2020 by Ryan754326