Coronavirus inflicts huge U.S. job losses; Pence aide infected

[Opl]

25 minutes ago, riclag said:

I don't know much about your opinion ,I would suggest you look to the experts advise ,especially the one's that advise the individuals  your critical about!

I do know that if I wear a mask then I do not protect myself , but I protect  others from getting infected by me, in case I would be contagious, asymptomatic or not.

Therefore, Katie Miller, Trump, Pence, etc.. not wearing masks  when gathering,  meeting, interacting with other people - among them essential workers - just show off how much they care.

I do know that as long as there is no vaccine, tested negative today doesn't mean immune, reason why Trump is tested everyday.   

Meanwhile he can wander - maybe - spreading the virus.  

Edited May 9, 2020 by Opl

[Walker88]

10 minutes ago, riclag said:

Where are your sources for  claiming  national socialist. Where are your sources period! Who gives you the right to change someones name willy nilly on a forum. I understand your hatred for the POTUS but the mustache rant is a stretch.  

The offending post has been removed, and I have been set straight with regard to what is not allowed. I will abide by it.

 

Using nat soc is accurate, because it is analogous to the horrors inflicted on innocents under the regime that chose that name. An analogy is not a 'conspiracy theory'; they are used to drive home a point. The person in question not only was the architect of the horrific border policy, but also sought to ban people of one particular faith from entering the US. A blanket condemnation or fear of all people of a race or creed was the essence of the whipping post against which the nat soc regime used to try to unite a country. Such policies are anathema to everything the US was meant to be and has been working toward for 244 years.

[cmarshall]

21 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Problem is that debt is at all time high due to a lack of counter cycle economic measures. In good times the government has increased debt in stead of reducing it, thereby not leaving many options for bad times.

You debt scaremongers never seem able to grasp some of the less obvious aspects of the national debt.  At the end of WWII the national debt stood as %120 of GDP.  Twenty years later it was only 40%.  So, how did the US government pay off such a huge debt in only twenty years?  Well, it didn't.  In fact, it never paid off a nickel of the WWII debt and never will.  This should be obvious from the fact that the national debt in dollars never goes down.  When one Treasury bond matures, the Treasury sells a new issue and uses the proceeds to pay off the maturing bond.

 

What happened in the twenty years after the War is that the GDP grew, so the debt as a percentage of GDP shrank even without paying off any of it.  The UK is still paying on perpetual bonds from 1696.

 

The important statistic and one which the debt scaremongers never notice is the cost of servicing the national debt as a percentage of GDP which the graph below from the St. Louis Fed shows.  So, debt servicing costs are not historically high.  Just as WWII was a good time to go into debt to defend the nation, now is a good time to go into debt to protect the economy and possibly, avoid a second Great Depression from which it might take many years to recover.  Austerity now would strangle the weakened economy even further.

 

[cmarshall]

24 minutes ago, TopDeadSenter said:

How lovely. Yet another post wishing death to the President of the United States of America.

Fervently.

[riclag]

5 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

The offending post has been removed, and I have been set straight with regard to what is not allowed. I will abide by it.

 

Using nat soc is accurate, because it is analogous to the horrors inflicted on innocents under the regime that chose that name. An analogy is not a 'conspiracy theory'; they are used to drive home a point. The person in question not only was the architect of the horrific border policy, but also sought to ban people of one particular faith from entering the US. A blanket condemnation or fear of all people of a race or creed was the essence of the whipping post against which the nat soc regime used to try to unite a country. Such policies are anathema to everything the US was meant to be and has been working toward for 244 years.

Sounds like a topic for another day! Have a nice day

[tomazbodner]

49 minutes ago, Susco said:

In the mean time

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-may-8-2020-222101291.html

Stock market news live updates: Wall Street rallies as data show historic jobs report collapse

Epic comment at the top, this guy deserves an award or at least a Pulitzer prize :

 

Considering ongoing effects of post-digital interoculation which we are currently experiencing with current stock market conditions, please read the following:
What we have is a bullair market, this is common when you have contagonistic market forces rebounding from accelerated downturn pressure, over the next year we are going to have periods of up and over through extended down around gyrations that can be charted with demosociolatic indicators patterns that resemble ox cart patterns. In the know investors will position themselves outside the inner Precambrian loops that traditionally occur just before a spring selling season, once through this tumultuous period it should be all in to cover any potential slam. This will reduce the risk of a periodontic vacillation.
If the extrabulator single befoggles the morzoni line, that is also a sell signal, unless, of course if the morzoni line is affected by the markhoure delineable. Then you should buy and sell, or just buy, or just sell, or do nothing provided it rains on Tuesday.

[Logosone]

11 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

You debt scaremongers never seem able to grasp some of the less obvious aspects of the national debt.  At the end of WWII the national debt stood as %120 of GDP.  Twenty years later it was only 40%.  So, how did the US government pay off such a huge debt in only twenty years?  Well, it didn't.  In fact, it never paid off a nickel of the WWII debt and never will.  This should be obvious from the fact that the national debt in dollars never goes down.  When one Treasury bond matures, the Treasury sells a new issue and uses the proceeds to pay off the maturing bond.

 

What happened in the twenty years after the War is that the GDP grew, so the debt as a percentage of GDP shrank even without paying off any of it.  The UK is still paying on perpetual bonds from 1696.

 

The important statistic and one which the debt scaremongers never notice is the cost of servicing the national debt as a percentage of GDP which the graph below from the St. Louis Fed shows.  So, debt servicing costs are not historically high.  Just as WWII was a good time to go into debt to defend the nation, now is a good time to go into debt to protect the economy and possibly, avoid a second Great Depression from which it might take many years to recover.  Austerity now would strangle the weakened economy even further.

 

That's of course total nonsense and generations of Americans, British and many other will have to pay for the fact that the older decision makers of the day decide to live off the backs of their children, and their children's children.

 

To say that the cost of servicing debt is low betrays staggering ignorance. The UK pays 48 billion pounds each year to service its debt. That's 48 billion the UK can not use in education, health care or other projects. One staggers to think what the US pays to service its giant debt.

 

 

[Walker88]

17 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

You debt scaremongers never seem able to grasp some of the less obvious aspects of the national debt.  At the end of WWII the national debt stood as %120 of GDP.  Twenty years later it was only 40%.  So, how did the US government pay off such a huge debt in only twenty years?  Well, it didn't.  In fact, it never paid off a nickel of the WWII debt and never will.  This should be obvious from the fact that the national debt in dollars never goes down.  When one Treasury bond matures, the Treasury sells a new issue and uses the proceeds to pay off the maturing bond.

 

What happened in the twenty years after the War is that the GDP grew, so the debt as a percentage of GDP shrank even without paying off any of it.  The UK is still paying on perpetual bonds from 1696.

 

The important statistic and one which the debt scaremongers never notice is the cost of servicing the national debt as a percentage of GDP which the graph below from the St. Louis Fed shows.  So, debt servicing costs are not historically high.  Just as WWII was a good time to go into debt to defend the nation, now is a good time to go into debt to protect the economy and possibly, avoid a second Great Depression from which it might take many years to recover.  Austerity now would strangle the weakened economy even further.

 

 

Nobody thinks any sovereign is ever going to repay its debt. The trick has been to either roll over existing maturities or inflate the debt away.

 

All fine and good, up to a point.

 

Debt, or the ability to issue it, is a function of confidence. We all collectively agree to suspend our disbelief that debt will ever be repaid, and we pretend the money printed to buy it---as the Fed does when the market lacks sufficient appetite---has value. There is a marginal dollar or debt instrument, however, that shakes that confidence and in an instant renders every bit of debt or every dollar in existence worthless.

 

Are we getting close to that?  Loss of confidence is not something one could use the proverbial canary to warn about. It's an instantaneous thing. We certainly are going to test it now. US debt/GDP, if one includes the Fed's balance sheet, now exceeds the WWII ratio, as debt has skyrocketed and GDP is falling. Using just OMB estimates, US GDP by year end will be around $19 T and National Debt close to $26 T (it's $25.1 right now). That's 137%, the highest ever.

 

CV-19 might have been analogous to WWII in justifying all the debt/printing, but the tax cut when R's still controlled the House was not. That did little except shoot up the debt. It did not result in any new capital spending, but was used to buy back stock and juice the bonuses of executives whose compensation scheme is often dependent upon not profits, but stock price rise.

 

We're lucky that the Fed can currently keep printing so as to maintain ZIRP. One problem, however, is that debt is continuously maturing, and the duration of the UST portfolio is not particularly long.  The historical Yield Curve is about 600 pips higher than present. Given the existing $25T in debt, on balance each 100 pip rise in rates adds an additional $250 billion per year to the National Debt. A rise simply back to historical levels---never mind an outlier like 1980---would add an additional $1.5 trillion per year to the debt, not even counting the normal deficit.

 

Apparently the Fed will have to prevent that by printing forever and maintaining ZIRP. Doing that, however, might be risking that marginal dollar that renders every one in existence worthless.

Edited May 9, 2020 by Walker88
add

[Logosone]

Either way the US debt will require interest payments of 800 billion USD in 2024. 

 

That's 3 percent of US GDP gone.

 

Just to repay its debt.

[stevenl]

38 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

You debt scaremongers never seem able to grasp some of the less obvious aspects of the national debt.  At the end of WWII the national debt stood as %120 of GDP.  Twenty years later it was only 40%.  So, how did the US government pay off such a huge debt in only twenty years?  Well, it didn't.  In fact, it never paid off a nickel of the WWII debt and never will.  This should be obvious from the fact that the national debt in dollars never goes down.  When one Treasury bond matures, the Treasury sells a new issue and uses the proceeds to pay off the maturing bond.

 

What happened in the twenty years after the War is that the GDP grew, so the debt as a percentage of GDP shrank even without paying off any of it.  The UK is still paying on perpetual bonds from 1696.

 

The important statistic and one which the debt scaremongers never notice is the cost of servicing the national debt as a percentage of GDP which the graph below from the St. Louis Fed shows.  So, debt servicing costs are not historically high.  Just as WWII was a good time to go into debt to defend the nation, now is a good time to go into debt to protect the economy and possibly, avoid a second Great Depression from which it might take many years to recover.  Austerity now would strangle the weakened economy even further.

 

Too late for that now. Austerity should have been done the last 3 years in stead of needlessly increasing debt. That would have created the necessary budget margin to stimulate now.

[Tippaporn]

The lock down can only last so long.  Expect people to revolt before they starve to death.  They're already beginning to revolt.

 

Most of the communist lock down diktats imposed on the U.S. population are unconstitutional and would never hold up in court.  That's already happening.

 

In any case, talk of continued lock down is insanity.  The cure will kill more than the disease.  Kinda stupid, is it not?

[Lacessit]

5 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

“the White House confirmed the Republican president's personal valet had tested positive for the virus, Trump told reporters it had also infected Katie Miller, the press secretary to Vice President Mike Pence. “

 

I feel it appropriate to offer my thoughts and prayers.

 

 

Zinger of the month.

[Emdog]

Stephen Miller has a wife???? Unbelievable. Has to be fake news

[Walker88]

5 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Too late for that now. Austerity should have been done the last 3 years in stead of needlessly increasing debt. That would have created the necessary budget margin to stimulate now.

Yes, we opted for a sugar high, and got precious little to show for it. Stock buybacks and a couple of new nail salons.

 

It's like your neighbor, who just got a huge line of credit and several new credit cards. He redoes the kitchen, buys a new Ford F-150, tosses a new bass boat on the back, and puts a new barbecue and pool in the back yard. He looks quite flush.

 

The mailman, however, soon shows up with the bill.

 

Yes, he can't just print like the Fed can, but he does get his credit lines cut as his toys are being repossessed. When a nation behaves similarly, either its rates go up or its currency declines. The worst case was March to November 1921 in Weimar Germany, though they weren't buying Fords, but trying to pay the penalty imposed on them for WWI. When the entire world does it...well, that has never happened. The answer awaits us.

[cmarshall]

26 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

Debt, or the ability to issue it, is a function of confidence. We all collectively agree to suspend our disbelief that debt will ever be repaid, and we pretend the money printed to buy it---as the Fed does when the market lacks sufficient appetite---has value. There is a marginal dollar or debt instrument, however, that shakes that confidence and in an instant renders every bit of debt or every dollar in existence worthless.

 

Are we getting close to that?  Loss of confidence is not something one could use the proverbial canary to warn about. It's an instantaneous thing. We certainly are going to test it now. US debt/GDP, if one includes the Fed's balance sheet, now exceeds the WWII ratio, as debt has skyrocketed and GDP is falling. Using just OMB estimates, US GDP by year end will be around $19 T and National Debt close to $26 T (it's $25.1 right now). That's 137%, the highest ever.

 

CV-19 might have been analogous to WWII in justifying all the debt/printing, but the tax cut when R's still controlled the House was not. That did little except shoot up the debt. It did not result in any new capital spending, but was used to buy back stock and juice the bonuses of executives whose compensation scheme is often dependent upon not profits, but stock price rise.

 

We're lucky that the Fed can currently keep printing so as to maintain ZIRP. One problem, however, is that debt is continuously maturing, and the duration of the UST portfolio is not particularly long.  The historical Yield Curve is about 600 pips higher than present. Given the existing $25T in debt, on balance each 100 pip rise in rates adds an additional $250 billion per year to the National Debt. A rise simply back to historical levels---never mind an outlier like 1980---would add an additional $1.5 trillion per year to the debt, not even counting the normal deficit.

 

Apparently the Fed will have to prevent that by printing forever and maintaining ZIRP. Doing that, however, might be risking that marginal dollar that renders every one in existence worthless.

So now, while the dollar is highly valued as a safe haven and interest rates have tanked as investors seek US Treasuries for the same reason, is a good time to use debt to save the economy for the future of our children.

 

But even before the current crisis we have been in a secular lowering-interest environment since 1980, which shows no signs of abating.  Since there is no risk of default on debt denominated in one's own currency, If interest rates were to rise, then it would have to be because of inflation so that the real cost of the interest payments would change little if at all.  It is quite possible that inflation will rise more than the interest rate so that the cost of the debt would turn out to be essentially free.

 

The proof of concept comes from Japan which has a debt load of roughly 250% of GDP, but very low servicing costs and so faces no risk of default or inability to refinance even when nominal interest rates are negative as they sometimes are.

 

So, the snowflake marginal dollar that you fear will one day cause an avalanche of US wealth destruction seems beyond remote.  There is every reason to expect the US monetary future to remain a lot more like Japan than Zimbabwe.  

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Let's just hope all those infected in the White House are being given massive doses of h/chloroquine and IVs of Lysol.  They'll be right in no time!!!   

[candide]

16 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Let's just hope all those infected in the White House are being given massive doses of h/chloroquine and IVs of Lysol.  They'll be right in no time!!!   

Maybe Trump will also need it if he's infected. I can imagine the following deep state conspiracy:

- Trump: "I want h/chloroquine!"

- deep state operative: "for sure it's the best treatment you can get, my President. Here it is! A large dose for a big guy like you, my President!"

????

Edited May 9, 2020 by candide

[Opl]

11 minutes ago, candide said:

Maybe Trump will also need it if he's infected. I can imagine the following deep state conspiracy:

- Trump: "I want h/chloroquine!"

- deep state operative: "for sure it's the best treatment you can get, my President. Here it is! A large dose for a big guy like you, my President!"

????

it would be considered trolling if Trump did'nt said it himself.. but this time applied to himself .. we can imagine

- Trump: "what do I have to lose?"

- deep state operative: " it's always the best who leave us first.."  

Edited May 9, 2020 by Opl

[mrfill]

Are the US unemployment figures based just on the number of people able to claim social security?

 

The UK uses this basis and can reduce the unemployment figure by tweaking the rules and disqualifying claimants. Simple measures like delaying the first payment for 6 weeks or not permitting claims until you have been in a job for 13 weeks can produce a nice looking reduction in numbers. All fake of course - the unemployed (those without a job) are still in the same situation whether or not they are getting benefits.

 

 

[Walker88]

Update....

 

I found the figures for the current # of employed in the US: 126,000,000

 

In January, when the UE rate was 3.5%, the # of employed was 168,000,000

 

Do the math and the current US UE rate is 28.5%.

[Sir Swagman]

If this woman can endure life with that subhuman atrocity this virus should be child’s play. 

[Pedrogaz]

What is wrong with this virus? It should be going after Mike Pompeo. A double helping if possible....and fatalities are doubled in obese people....I guess like killing two for the price of one.

 

Pence and his staffers are low lying targets. Mike Pence was lauded for having done such a wonderful job as leader of the task force...only what 77000 dead? A miracle and we are lucky to have such talent as Mike Pence. 

 

Now Pompeo on the other hand is gunning to kill way more than 77000....he's looking at 1.5 billion Chinese plus 80 million Iranians to bump off...shame God doesn't give this holy Christian who loves his Saviour so much but seems deaf to his Saviour's words i.e. "blessed are the peacemakers", a dose of the virus. I guess Mike Pompeo's hearing isn't that good and he thinks Jesus said: 'Blessed are the warmongers'

 

Now I'm old fashioned, but I do think warmongering kinda disqualifies you from calling yourself a devout Christian. 

[earlinclaifornia]

trump is downplaying still, pretending this is going away. That is just how he is trying to deal with all of this. Those 11 Secret Service infected are an alarming look at how the casualness of the entire administration acts. Those in the WH who report and know how really scary this is there. Miller was tested daily and still never wore a facemark at all the meetings as none of them practice any safety.

Honestly we may not have to worry about the forthcoming election as trump is so clueless as he is may not make the November election

[Isaan sailor]

Step back, and think about how this all began—the Wuhan Coronavirus.  Liberals on TV take every opportunity to bash the current administration.  Meanwhile, China continues its aggressions unchallanged.

[CaptRon2]

10 hours ago, Tug said:

It’s going to take time to get things going again all the trump happy talk won’t change that unfortunately. as the administration is desperately trying to keep us in the dark about how prevalent the virus is (lack of testing tracing)I find it ironic it’s infecting the White House the one place were they have regular testing lol I hope millers old lady gets better as far as miller himself I hope he gets really really sick he deserves it that’s the dude behind separating toddlers from there parents a really despicable person imo 

Yes children in cages is very despicable, it was very sad to see those pictures from the Obama/Biden administration of those kids locked in cages,  you remember those pictures right? The ones the moron Democrats released thinking it was during Trumps time but it turned out they they were from the Obama/Biden era. Do you remember now?

So my question to you is, do you hope Obama and Biden get the virus too? Or are you once again proving yourself to be a hypocrite? 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/461230-biden-incorrectly-claims-obama-administration-didnt-separate-families

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Step back, and think about how this all began—the Wuhan Coronavirus.  Liberals on TV take every opportunity to bash the current administration.  Meanwhile, China continues its aggressions unchallanged.

 

It’s the failures of the US President and his administration that is damaging economy, not the Chinese.

 

 

 

[earlinclaifornia]

10 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Step back, and think about how this all began—the Wuhan Coronavirus.  Liberals on TV take every opportunity to bash the current administration.  Meanwhile, China continues its aggressions unchallanged.

Sailor this is an election year for America! Closing in on 80 thousand DEAD! 179 days to go! This is NOT going away! Deal with it!

Edited May 9, 2020 by earlinclaifornia
impact

[Sujo]

7 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Step back, and think about how this all began—the Wuhan Coronavirus.  Liberals on TV take every opportunity to bash the current administration.  Meanwhile, China continues its aggressions unchallanged.

What china did has nothing to do with how trump has been incompetent.

[Sujo]

6 minutes ago, CaptRon2 said:

Yes children in cages is very despicable, it was very sad to see those pictures from the Obama/Biden administration of those kids locked in cages,  you remember those pictures right? The ones the moron Democrats released thinking it was during Trumps time but it turned out they they were from the Obama/Biden era. Do you remember now?

So my question to you is, do you hope Obama and Biden get the virus too? Or are you once again proving yourself to be a hypocrite? 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/461230-biden-incorrectly-claims-obama-administration-didnt-separate-families

It wasnt an obama policy and not the norm. It is a trump/miller policy and us the norm and whats worse is that they have no record of which to reunite them. Despicable is not a harsh enough word.

 

now back to the topic of of trumps incompetence in dealing with reality.

[earlinclaifornia]

3 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Update....

 

I found the figures for the current # of employed in the US: 126,000,000

 

In January, when the UE rate was 3.5%, the # of employed was 168,000,000

 

Do the math and the current US UE rate is 28.5%.

The truth is now in rate is in the twenties.