Sweden - is the rest of the world dumb, blind or worse ?

[Rookiescot]

27 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

And they quarantined and tested  everyone coming into the country  for 14 days. in a Goverment facility

Costs were mostly covered by the government, though accommodation was not necessarily luxurious. One woman who flew home from Australia - considering Vietnam a safer place to be - told BBC News Vietnamese that on their first night they had "only one mat, no pillows, no blankets" and one fan for the hot room.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52628283

Not sure if that would go  down well with TVF members

Been in worse places.

Had to stay at the mother in laws house when we first moved over here. 

[farang51]

40 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

I'm not sure where you're getting your info on herd immunity from but I haven't seen or heard a single health expert talking about herd immunity by the natural infection method being possible with less than 60% of the population being immune. Some put the figure higher - possibly 70% or more.

Probably the same place that he gets the rest of his info on the virus. You are absolutely right, to achieve herd immunity, 60 to 70 per cent of the population need to be immune, whether by a vaccine or natural immunizations. However, and what few of the herd proponent know, that does not mean that the infections will stop, it only slows down. We would still need to take care of grandma and other vulnerable people for a very long time after achieving herd immunity.

 

[Blumpie]

Hindsight will be 20/20.  Everything that we know we may not really know.  

But I must say, the conspiracy theorists and the logic behind them are on a scale of stupidity that is staggering.  They like getting people upset, because they are upset.  It makes them feel good.  They dodge around, quoting facts and figures, and won't nail down a certain narrative because they just don't care.  

Look, I get it.  What should we have done?  The world did the best that we knew how to with the knowledge that we had at the time.  Will it help?  Ask in six months if wave 2 or 3 comes.  Ask in 2-3 years when it's all over.  Or feel free to ask now, just don't be a conspiracy theorist.  Debate is good, lunacy isn't.  

[from the home of CC]

3 hours ago, Lacessit said:

To answer the OP, IMO flu vaccines are very successful. I've been having them for 2 or 3 decades. As are vaccines for smallpox, polio, TB etc.

Sweden chose to go along a path which has given them one of the higher death rates per million population. Australia and New Zealand chose full lockdown, and have the lowest death rates. The countries torn between business as normal, and lockdown, seem to be faring the worst.

What seems to be missing in this debate is the number of people who are incapacitated. The USA has 1 million people that are in that category, as measured by active cases.

It's a misrepresentation to say it's only the sick and elderly that are dying. Young people are dying too, or have to be taught to breathe and walk again.

To me, claiming Sweden is the model to follow is alarmingly simplistic. It's recovery rate is nothing to write home about either.

I guess it depends on what weight countries give their economies compared to the health of its citizens.

 

and as they don't operate in a bubble economically what did they gain ? more deaths is the only difference I see..

[metisdead]

A post containing unsubstantiated facts and the replies have been removed.

 

Posts and replies bickering about "gibberish" have been removed. 

[yuyiinthesky]

34 minutes ago, farang51 said:

Probably the same place that he gets the rest of his info on the virus. You are absolutely right, to achieve herd immunity, 60 to 70 per cent of the population need to be immune, whether by a vaccine or natural immunizations.

Actually, that seems to be not the latest status anymore. Even Professor Drosten, whom you can hardly accuse to be a conspiracy theorist, quite the opposite, starts to talk about a base immunity of about 25% of the population from the exposure to similar Corona viruses.

The previously thought percentages for reaching herd immunity seem to be much lower than expected.

This quite interesting research is just starting, with more and more results of antibody tests coming in. I hope soon we will know more.

Another interesting point from the study of Professor Streeck in Heinsberg showed that even in families which had been locked up together, when one of them apparently was infected, not everybody got infected too. The bigger the families the less of them got infected. I find this quite interesting, since this is contrary to the claims and expectations about the contagiousness of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

This seems to be also the reason why the case and death numbers in Sweden are falling already, despite not having reached an infection rate of 50-70% of the population yet.

Edited May 16, 2020 by yuyiinthesky

[JackThompson]

1 hour ago, Susco said:

Which part of highest in the world is it that you didn't understand?

Sweeden didn't spread out the infections over time with lockdowns, so it makes sense they would have more deaths on the front-end (though not enough to overwhelm the medical-system), with fewer in future months, after most all residents gain immunity. 

 

As their population will reach herd immunity faster, their elderly and infirm can come back out of self-isolation sooner.  But, they would need to shut down their borders to make that work, because the rest of the world will be carriers of the disease for a longer period of time.

[sead]

Im born and currently in Sweden. Here its like there never was any Covid. Im socilizing and eating  out. taking my normal coffe every day. Not 1 person is wearing masks. Im in gym everyday. So you go figure. The herd immunity system is ofcourse making more people infected. If its good or bad i really dont know. But so far its working here. i do prefer a immunity rather than another vaccine. dear god we are full of vaccines <deleted>,

[scubascuba3]

16 minutes ago, from the home of CC said:

and as they don't operate in a bubble economically what did they gain ? more deaths is the only difference I see..

Sweden is 6th in deaths per million if you ignore San Marino and Andorra, not great but we don't know the effect on Swedens GDP, suicides, deaths caused by not receiving medical treatment etc, that is where Sweden's numbers should be lower. The elephant in the room is the deaths caused by lockdowns

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO the more people that become infected the better. That way herd immunity is reached faster and things get back to some sort of normal. Those with underlying health problems that are more likely to die can be isolated more easily than locking EVERYONE down.

What if herd immunity is not achievable with this novel virus? There is a big herd on this thread that assumes that herd immunity is a given, almost a human right, but this is not known for sure as yet. And even if there is some immunity, it may not be long-lasting. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-call-herd-immunity-sweden-experiment-coronavirus-not-working-2020-5 

"And scientists are still uncertain if a COVID-19 infection even leads to immunity".

[yuyiinthesky]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

I think you would find if both sides were asked to enter an ICU ward full of patients with Covid that both sides will be suited and booted and wearing full protection including masks

Actually, the ones which have antibodies already may be not - nevertheless, if you talk about an ICU everybody should follow the required hygienic measures for ICUs, so it's not up to the ones entering to choose. Bad example. 

The reason why so many in Italy died with Corona is exactly that, too many got infected in the hospitals due to substandard hygiene there.

[talahtnut]

3 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Sweden is 6th in deaths per million if you ignore San Marino and Andorra, not great but we don't know the effect on Swedens GDP, suicides, deaths caused by not receiving medical treatment etc, that is where Sweden's numbers should be lower. The elephant in the room is the deaths caused by lockdowns

Similar situation in the UK,

The Guardian recently conducted their own analysis using data from the Office of National statistics (ONS), the UK government’s statistics department. They found that in total, there have been 8,196 additional deaths above the 5-year average in the UK (not including Northern Ireland, which does not publish their 5-year averages). No fewer than 6,546, or 80 percent, are adjudged to have died of non-Covid conditions.

 

[tlock]

1 hour ago, Susco said:

 

Which part of highest in the world is it that you didn't understand?

I think the point is that they are not #1 in deaths per million.  Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, and France all implemented lockdowns and have higher deaths per million.  The hypothesis that lockdowns are key to minimizing the death toll would expect that Sweden was #1 in deaths per million, but that is not the case.  

 

I think proof of the containment approach being the most effective can't be proven until those countries re-open.  If they end up with more proportionately larger second waves and continue to re-lockdown they are just prolonging the inevitable and misunderstanding the science around flattening the curve.  SAME NUMBER OF DEATHS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME SO AS TO AVOID OVERLOADING THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM.  Not less deaths.

 

 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

How many suicides because of poverty caused by the lockdown is acceptable to you?

How many deaths by Covid are acceptable to you?

[nauseus]

1 minute ago, tlock said:

I think the point is that they are not #1 in deaths per million.  Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, and France all implemented lockdowns and have higher deaths per million.  The hypothesis that lockdowns are key to minimizing the death toll would expect that Sweden was #1 in deaths per million, but that is not the case.  

 

I think proof of the containment approach being the most effective can't be proven until those countries re-open.  If they end up with more proportionately larger second waves and continue to re-lockdown they are just prolonging the inevitable and misunderstanding the science around flattening the curve.  SAME NUMBER OF DEATHS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME SO AS TO AVOID OVERLOADING THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM.  Not less deaths.

 

 

You forget that population density must be an important factor.

[yuyiinthesky]

2 minutes ago, nauseus said:

What if herd immunity is not achievable with this novel virus? There is a big herd on this thread that assumes that herd immunity is a given, almost a human right, but this is not known for sure as yet. And even if there is some immunity, it may not be long-lasting. 

There is immunity to the other corona viruses. Even to SARS there seem to still be antibodies today in recovered patients. So if the would be no immunity to SARS-CoV-2 this would be an exception, different to what is seen with all the other corona viruses. Thus we assume that "herd immunity is a given".

And even the dubious Bill Gates agrees, his touted vaccine would not be able to work if there would be no immunity.

[Skallywag]

8 hours ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

look what Sweden did and still does

 

the rest of the world is in lockdown and economic meltdown

 

Agree, yet at this point in time it does not matter, other countries are opening up now. Cannot change what has happened in other countries overthe past 2 months

[nauseus]

8 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Actually, the ones which have antibodies already may be not - nevertheless, if you talk about an ICU everybody should follow the required hygienic measures for ICUs, so it's not up to the ones entering to choose. Bad example. 

The reason why so many in Italy died with Corona is exactly that, too many got infected in the hospitals due to substandard hygiene there.

Rubbish.

[nauseus]

2 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

There is immunity to the other corona viruses. Even to SARS there seem to still be antibodies today in recovered patients. So if the would be no immunity to SARS-CoV-2 this would be an exception, different to what is seen with all the other corona viruses. Thus we assume that "herd immunity is a given".

And even the dubious Bill Gates agrees, his touted vaccine would not be able to work if there would be no immunity.

The presence if antibodies does not automatically give immunity.

 

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/4/28/21237922/antibody-test-covid-19-immunity

The detection of antibodies to Covid-19 is not enough to declare a person immune because we don’t yet know how immunity to this virus works.

 

 

 

[vermin on arrival]

7 minutes ago, nauseus said:

What if herd immunity is not achievable with this novel virus? There is a big herd on this thread that assumes that herd immunity is a given, almost a human right, but this is not known for sure as yet. And even if there is some immunity, it may not be long-lasting. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-call-herd-immunity-sweden-experiment-coronavirus-not-working-2020-5 

"And scientists are still uncertain if a COVID-19 infection even leads to immunity".

Then we are pretty much doomed, especially when we don't know if a proper vaccine can be made despite some promising starts. However, if some kind of reasonable herd immunity doesn't develop with this illness it will be different than most similar diseases, at least according to Professor Hendrik Streeck of Germany.

[chessman]

22 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

This seems to be also the reason why the case and death numbers in Sweden are falling already, despite not having reached an infection rate of 50-70% of the population yet.

The numbers are certainly looking slightly better in Sweden. Cases depends on testing, with deaths there is a big lag but a key one is the number in intensive care because that’s probably the best reflection of the situation on the day they announce the figures. The numbers in intensive cases are falling.

 

would be interesting to know if this is really because people are getting immunity or if it is more because they came up with much stricter rules in care homes. My guess would be that the latter is impacting the number of deaths more.

[yuyiinthesky]

4 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

Then we are pretty much doomed, especially when we don't know if a proper vaccine can be made despite some promising starts. However, if some kind of reasonable herd immunity doesn't develop with this illness it will be different than most similar diseases, at least according to Professor Hendrik Streeck of Germany.

Yes, herd immunity is the normal here, to be expected.

 

Please be aware that if immunity does not work, then a conventional vaccine does not work too. Vaccines provoke a reaction of the immune system, teach it what to do to fight the virus, if it shows up.  We get both or nothing.

[GroveHillWanderer]

1 minute ago, yuyiinthesky said:

There is immunity to the other corona viruses. Even to SARS there seem to still be antibodies today in recovered patients. So if the would be no immunity to SARS-CoV-2 this would be an exception, different to what is seen with all the other corona viruses. Thus we assume that "herd immunity is a given".

And even the dubious Bill Gates agrees, his touted vaccine would not be able to work if there would be no immunity.

There is no such thing in the scientific method as "a given," without supporting and verifiable data.

 

What most epidemiologists and virologists I've heard talking about this say, is that based on the other closest viruses of the same sort, immunity seems to be more likely than not. However that doesn't make it a certain thing, just a good likelihood.

 

Also, even if being exposed to the virus doesn't confer sufficient levels of immunity to ward it off (for instance, people exposed to HIV produce antibodies, but are not thereby immune) that doesn't mean a vaccine won't work.

 

The whole idea of a properly-designed vaccine is to evoke a stronger and more long-lasting immune response than natural exposure. That's why an HIV vaccine is still being sought, and is still a possibility (even if a remote one).

[yuyiinthesky]

3 minutes ago, chessman said:

they came up with much stricter rules in care homes.

In any case, that is a key factor, and may be one area where Sweden made mistakes at the beginning. 

Good if they got corrected.

[chessman]

14 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

So if the would be no immunity to SARS-CoV-2 this would be an exception, different to what is seen with all the other corona viruses.

The common cold? That’s a Coronavirus that most people are able to catch multiple times.

[Susco]

10 minutes ago, tlock said:

1 hour ago, Susco said:

 

Which part of highest in the world is it that you didn't understand?

I think the point is that they are not #1 in deaths per million.  Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, and France all implemented lockdowns and have higher deaths per million.  The hypothesis that lockdowns are key to minimizing the death toll would expect that Sweden was #1 in deaths per million, but that is not the case.  

 

Belgium 12 Million population 30.000 sq. km

 

Spain 47 Million population 505.000 sq.km

 

France  67 Million population  643.000 sq. km

 

Italy  60 Million population 300.000 sq. km

 

Sweden 10 Million population  450.000 sq. km

 

Need to explain more?

[vinny41]

18 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Actually, the ones which have antibodies already may be not - nevertheless, if you talk about an ICU everybody should follow the required hygienic measures for ICUs, so it's not up to the ones entering to choose. Bad example. 

The reason why so many in Italy died with Corona is exactly that, too many got infected in the hospitals due to substandard hygiene there.

My point was the doubting Thomases on this forum and many other forums who think Corona virus is no worse than flu would run a mile if they were required to enter a room which was full of Covid 19 postive patients, we would see people that state they will never wear a mask under any circumstance suddenly demanding Masks and full protection equipment.

[yuyiinthesky]

4 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

There is no such thing in the scientific method as "a given," without supporting and verifiable data.

Sorry if the word "a given" disturbs you. I was just quoting from nauseous, and therefore even putting it in quotes, and "assume" in front of it:
 

Quote

Thus we assume that "herd immunity is a given".

 

[Susco]

36 minutes ago, JackThompson said:

Sweeden didn't spread out the infections over time with lockdowns, so it makes sense they would have more deaths on the front-end (though not enough to overwhelm the medical-system), with fewer in future months, after most all residents gain immunity. 

 

As their population will reach herd immunity faster, their elderly and infirm can come back out of self-isolation sooner.  But, they would need to shut down their borders to make that work, because the rest of the world will be carriers of the disease for a longer period of time.

There is no immunity. That has been proven in several countries already, because people got infected a second time

[chessman]

3 minutes ago, Susco said:

Need to explain more?

You could explain the other factors that are to Sweden’s advantage such as one of the highest percentages of ‘single’ households in the world.

 

you could also suggest they compare Sweden to it’s neighbouring countries that are more demographically, culturally and geographically similar.