Sweden - is the rest of the world dumb, blind or worse ?

[daveAustin]

Op, Sweden's death rate is really high. They are also somewhat one of them non-countries out on the fringes and as a result haven't had a big incoming dose.

[Odysseus123]

3 hours ago, daveAustin said:

Op, Sweden's death rate is really high. They are also somewhat one of them non-countries out on the fringes and as a result haven't had a big incoming dose.

Yes..but don't spoil the poster's narrative...he's already been hit by many 16" shells which have barely left a scratch on the armour....the steering has,however,been badly effected and the ship is now steaming around in circles belching large amounts of black smoke.????

Edited May 16, 2020 by Odysseus123

[simple1]

13 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

That was not the point he was making.  Not taking into account the side-effects of the covid-19 lockdown measures on the total population is a rather simplistic approach.

The point the member was making in attempting to compare deaths by poverty due to unemployment to Covid-19 doesn't stack up. Currently during the Covid crisis Congress has authorised an additional $600 p.w. for the unemployed, similar initiatives are happening in other Western countries (here in Oz not as generous as the US, an additional $250 p.w) but Oz enjoys universal health care.

 

In the US, as they would be in other Western countries, poverty related deaths are due to a number of lifestyle causes e.g. smoking, illegal drugs, bad diet choices and so on. At the moment in the US increase in deaths due to Covid far exceed customary death rates. e.g.

 

If you look at the provisional deaths from all causes, death counts in New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Illinois, Maryland and Colorado have spiked far above their normal levels for the period. In New York City, the home of the biggest outbreak, the number of deaths over this period is more than three times the normal number. (Recent data suggests it could have reached six times higher than normal.)

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html

Edited May 16, 2020 by simple1

[Heppinger]

11 minutes ago, simple1 said:

The point the member was making in attempting to compare deaths by poverty due to unemployment to Covid-19 doesn't stack up. By way of example in the US poverty related deaths are due to a number of lifestyle causes e.g. smoking, illegal drugs, bad diet choices and so on. At the moment in the US increase in deaths due to Covid far exceed customary death rates. e.g.

 

If you look at the provisional deaths from all causes, death counts in New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Illinois, Maryland and Colorado have spiked far above their normal levels for the period. In New York City, the home of the biggest outbreak, the number of deaths over this period is more than three times the normal number. (Recent data suggests it could have reached six times higher than normal.)

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html

Probably high because if you jump off a building in NY and catch a coronavirus half way down then coronavirus is what will be listed as cause of death.

[JensenZ]

6 hours ago, nauseus said:

More rubbish. Vaccines can still be developed from antibodies. Give it up.

However, a coronavirus vaccination has never been produced, so let's hope it works out. Did they produce an HIV vaccination in nearly 40 years and countless billions spent trying? NO!

[JensenZ]

4 hours ago, daveAustin said:

Op, Sweden's death rate is really high. They are also somewhat one of them non-countries out on the fringes and as a result haven't had a big incoming dose.

That's a good point. A quick look at tourism statistics reveals 417,000 (2018) East Asian people visiting Sweden. East Asia includes China, Japan, Taiwan and Korea.

 

Italy, by comparison, had 2.2 million, over 5 times as many.

 

And the really big difference is that Sweden gets about 5.2 million European tourists annually, compared to Italy's 82.84 million, France 70 million, Spain 72 million and Germany 30 million, UK 27 million, which is probably the source of most infections in Europe.

 

https://www.e-unwto.org/loi/unwtotfb

[Stygge]

11 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Oh well, we talk about the density, not about the amount of people living there. London has a very big area.

And last time I was in Stockholm I got the strong impression there would be a few more than "978.00 people" living there ????

Greater London maybe 15 milions. Greater Stockholm 2,344 milions. Density central Stockholm 4 800 per sq meters.

The figures about the Somalis are correct, and can be found, I have seen them, but don´t have the engergy go looking for them now. For elderly homes Sweden differs greatly from neighbour countries. In Sweden much larger units with very sick elderly, expected lifespan after arrival maybe on average maybe a year. When the virus spread in such a unit deathtoll become very high. Less sick elderly are cared for in their homes.

[Stygge]

5 hours ago, daveAustin said:

Op, Sweden's death rate is really high. They are also somewhat one of them non-countries out on the fringes and as a result haven't had a big incoming dose.

Actually Sweden had a big influx in the end of February since on the Winter holiday a great number of Swedes went to the Alps for skiing. At that time there was a great but unknown spread of the virus in northen Italy and Austria. Unnowingly of the virus many thousands swedes got infected, came home and developted symtoms after arrival. This was before the lock down in Italy. This massive influx came very early in Sweden before the awareness of the virus was very high in Europe and Sweden. So, Sweden was one of the first countries in Europe to get a massive spread.

[chessman]

1 hour ago, JensenZ said:

That's a good point. A quick look at tourism statistics reveals 417,000 (2018) East Asian people visiting Sweden. East Asia includes China, Japan, Taiwan and Korea.

 

Italy, by comparison, had 2.2 million, over 5 times as many.

 

And the really big difference is that Sweden gets about 5.2 million European tourists annually, compared to Italy's 82.84 million, France 70 million, Spain 72 million and Germany 30 million, UK 27 million, which is probably the source of most infections in Europe.

Also, it seems northern Italy was the first area in Europe to be really badly affected. Think of all the direct flights between northern Italy and the UK. Just the London - Milan route is about 20 flights a day. And all those budget airlines that seem to have more flights from/to the UK. 
 

a city being an international hub also seems to be a big factor... think of London and New York.

[chessman]

1 hour ago, Stygge said:

The figures about the Somalis are correct

6 out of the first 15 deaths in Stockholm were Somalis. That is where they get 40% from. 

[chessman]

2 hours ago, simple1 said:

The point the member was making in attempting to compare deaths by poverty due to unemployment to Covid-19 doesn't stack up. Currently during the Covid crisis Congress has authorised an additional $600 p.w. for the unemployed, similar initiatives are happening in other Western countries (here in Oz not as generous as the US, an additional $250 p.w) but Oz enjoys universal health care.

 

In the US, as they would be in other Western countries, poverty related deaths are due to a number of lifestyle causes e.g. smoking, illegal drugs, bad diet choices and so on. At the moment in the US increase in deaths due to Covid far exceed customary death rates. e.g.

Indeed. The mortality rate in the US actually went down during the Great Depression. Life expectancy increased at the same time. Deaths from suicides did go up but most other causes of deaths were down.

 

 

 

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

20 hours ago, simple1 said:

Sweden's per capita death rate from Covid-19 is among the highest in the world

another global media lie.

sweden has only 2000 deaths...not too bad...

[chessman]

1 minute ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

another global media lie.

sweden has only 2000 deaths...not too bad...

More than 3600 actually. And sixth highest in the world (if you don’t include countries with tiny populations). At the rate they are increasing they will overtake France (who have the 5th highest rate) in about 2-3 weeks.

[nauseus]

9 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Obviously you didn't really understand this. Give it up.

The new antibody tests will also help guide vaccine development. By measuring antibody levels in infected and recovered patients, we’ll have a much better idea of the levels of protective antibodies a vaccine needs to elicit.

 

https://theconversation.com/antibody-tests-to-get-a-grip-on-coronavirus-we-need-to-know-whos-already-had-it-134547

[nauseus]

4 hours ago, JensenZ said:

However, a coronavirus vaccination has never been produced, so let's hope it works out. Did they produce an HIV vaccination in nearly 40 years and countless billions spent trying? NO!

I think that everyone knows coronavirus and HIV vaccinations are not yet available.

[johnnybangkok]

12 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

Another thread filled with the usual shouters and bullies pushing their  delusions of world control and ignorance.

 

Sweden has modified its public health strategy twice since it realized that its initial strategy  was not working. The continued praising  of a strategy no longer used is laughable. Sweden has since implemented  multiple measures seen in other countries;

- high schools and universities are closed

- gatherings of more than 50 people are legally banned, and the public has voluntarily avoided large gatherings of  10 or more

- many businesses introduced work at home policies

- long term care facilities have restrictions on access

- public movement in the at risk high population density cities has fallen significantly with fewer commuters and fewer people on the streets.

 

Yes, Sweden has not implemented a full lock down but this reflects Sweden's demographics. It is a small country with a relatively small population spread out giving a relatively low population density. A majority of the population lives in single family units. It does not have the  issue of multi-generational  homes as one sees in other cultures and countries.  One can take risks in Sweden that one cannot take in a city like Moscow or NYC. Comparing the Swedish strategy with countries where the demographics and  population  densities at risk are  different is idiotic because they are not comparable. It is easier to social distance when there is space to stay 2 meters away. Try doing that on a Bangkok city street or in Mumbai.  Sweden doesn't have the high density retail space as is seen in the USA or China with their mega malls. Sweden doesn't have the high volume  service trade like the USA or Canada; There are no high turnover outlets like Waffle House,Denny's, Applebee etc. in every neighborhood.

 

Public health policy  requires the co-operation of the general public. The  Covid 19 management strategies that have been deployed around the world reflect the population participation/buyin of the strategy. Some countries/cultures are more willing to accept a tougher approach (e.g. Taiwan, South Korea), other countries require prodding and "encouragement" (e.g. Canada, Australia, Denmark, Norway) and other countries have large populations who will not listen and think of their individual needs first (e.g. USA, Italy) making a consistent and rapid  application of policy difficult.  I do not see the Swedish public health policy as the best, but it seems this is what the Swedish people were willing to accept and what the country had the ability to implement. One can have the best strategy in the world, but if people do not comply, it is a useless strategy. The swedish government and the public also accept that thousands of its elderly and vulnerable will die before their time. This is not acceptable public policy in countries like Canada or Denmark. Sweden has used a strategy that its  population will comply with.

 

If the population does not buy in to the public health policy, it won't work. Australia and New Zealand  are having success now because the population did their part. Vulnerable regions of Canada are disease free because the locals went farther than government policy and blocked or restricted entry of anyone not from the region. India has deployed public security forces to smack a few bums to ensure that large gatherings are  broken up.

 

There is a cost to pay when the tough measures are delayed or not effectively implemented. Australia and New Zealand are opening up again in a safe and orderly manner. Their people have confidence to go out again. Canada is reopening in many regions and confidence is  back in the regions which have been disease free for weeks. Some EU countries that had a poor implementation and  then spotty compliance still have a shattered consumer confidence and it is unlikely that their economies will recover as quickly as those who had the tougher approach.  Yes, some Swedes are out in the cafes and restaurants.  The country already has an issue mental health and its suicide rate is significantly higher than its peer countries of Denmark, Norway and Canada. I expect that the Covid 19 issue will add to the repressed worries that weigh down the Swedish collective psyche - It will be  just another thing to worry about.  In the USA, with its rush to reopen, consumer confidence is evaporating as reported infections increase. 

 

The undeniable reality is that  infection with SARS Cov-2 leaves behind significant physical damage in many of the infected.  Circulatory and cardiac damage, scarred and damaged lungs and kidney damage. This damage is the unseen impact. And the more people who are infected, the more likely the damage will manifest itself in other illness events. This is an aspect not measured  by the champions of limiting the response.

What a great post.

I only hope the 'but, but Sweden' crowd will take note of the points you are making, especially the fact that Sweden HAS introduced self distancing (mostly voluntarily), has isolated the most vulnerable, closed high schools and universities, banned large gatherings and has extensive work at home policies. In addition it has closed it's borders and all although the lowest of all the Nordic countries, still has plenty of testing going on. 

The fallacy often touted by the 'open up the country' brigade is Sweden is the role model for all other countries to emulate when in fact the role model should be S. Korea and Taiwan who got ahead of the virus by initialising early testing, identifying, tracking and isolating. In the crucial 6 weeks from when the WHO announced C19 to be Public Health Emergency of International Concern (30th January), the vast majority of countries procrastinated, ignored, minimised and generally flew in the face of WHO advice and did very little to get ahead of the threat (see US, UK, Italy, Span, France etc.etc) so when it inevitably hit them, they were left will very little other option than to introduce the extreme measures of self-isolation, social distancing etc. Even then the death tolls in these countries have been far greater than others but I would argue this is more to do with a complete lack of preperation, a general lack of PPE (especially for front line workers) and massive incompetance at the highest level of government that has sown division and distrust in equal measure.

And for all those 'herd immunity' fans, the science is still not conclusive that there even is herd immunity, with 260 COVID-19 patients in South Korea tested positive for the coronavirus after having recovered (ttps://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-reinfections-were-false-positives.html). This virus has mutated and shown to cause long-term health damage to many infected. We are even seeing strokes in teenagers (https://www.popsci.com/story/health/covid-19-strokes-young-adults/) and although still low in number, Kawasaki disease in children (https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/multisystem-inflammatory-syndrome-in-children-and-adolescents-with-covid-19). There is still much to be seen and learned about this virus.

However, I also believe the current lockdown cannot continue for much longer. The overall economic impact of the lockdown is causing far too much hardship already and if left for any longer, will literally decimate the world economy. But how to get back to 'normal', withought putting too many people at risk? Here are my suggestions:-

1. Those deemed 'most at risk' must continue to self-isolate until either the crisis abates or a vacine is found.

2. All people on the 'front line' must be adequately protected, meaning mask and gowns and anything else they need is readily available.

3. Borders must open but only people with a valid health certificate (dated within the last 2 weeks) are allowed to travel.

4. Testing MUST be ramped up, with those testing positive forced to self-isolate (or admitted to hospital if particularly bad) and those they came into contact with tracked and self-isolated. 

 

Despite all the warnings over the years by the likes of the WHO, Bill Gates etc, it has become painful obvious The World and in turn individual countries were woefuly unprepared for this pandemic and have been caught completely by surprise (amazing when you consider we've gone through H1N1, Sars, MERS, Ebola etc). We can't cry over spilled milk now but the answer to an opening of the economy is already there IF sensible and knowledgable people are allowed to talk. And in the future hopefully countries will realise their mistake (and cost) in not preparing fully for pandemics and get much better prepared as you can be damn sure this is not going to be the first time we will see the likes of this again.   

 

   

 

 

Edited May 17, 2020 by johnnybangkok

[UbonThani]

2 hours ago, chessman said:

More than 3600 actually. And sixth highest in the world (if you don’t include countries with tiny populations). At the rate they are increasing they will overtake France (who have the 5th highest rate) in about 2-3 weeks.

Still not high. In line with flu.

[chessman]

22 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I think that everyone knows coronavirus and HIV vaccinations are not yet available.

and even though there is no vaccine for HIV, we have become much more successful in treating it. Deaths are half of what they were in 2005 despite more than 10 times the number of cases.

 

Putting trust in science and medical professionals to find solutions is what we need to do.

[yuyiinthesky]

35 minutes ago, chessman said:

You keep saying this - Please read this https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

 

If you disagree with anything in that article, then come back and discuss it

A personal opinion of a guy not happy with the way his country's CDC counts the flu deaths. He has a point there, for his country at least, estimations are not exact, obviously - but it's not that the numbers of deaths in general cannot be compared. 1 death = 1 death.

[marqus12]

"As of 2018 one quarter of the world's population is thought to have latent infection with TB.^[6] New infections occur in about 1% of the population each year.^[12] In 2018, there were more than 10 million cases of active TB which resulted in 1.5 million deaths"

 

Why didn't I even know that?
Why didn't anyone warn me?
Where was the lockdown when you needed it?
Serial killers ruled the world in 2018?
They tried to murder me in 2018?

[CGW]

13 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

They just cannot admit they were wrong.

Certainly seems that way! the longer they drag out the new "agenda" the harder it will be for people to return to any sense of normalcy, for all those that wont to continue the lockdown for their own personal safety, how will they feel when the outcome is more obvious, there will be millions starving, the longer this farce continues, more will be joining them!

For those still living in fear, consider this, you have three times the risk of being struck by lightening then dying from the "virus" based on the current numbers, still fearful?

The damage done by this lockdown will far exceed any "saving" of lives by a Huge factor!

[UbonThani]

 "The numbers of flu deaths confirmed by lab tests usually understate how many people actually died from the virus, simply because most doctors around the world don't have the time or the resources to test their patients for the virus and report cases to health authorities. "

[Sheryl]

Many people posting here seem to be of the impression that Sweden has enacted no precautions and life there continues exactly as before.

 

This is not at all the case.

 

Gatherings of more than 50 people have been banned altogether and the public has been urged tp practice social distancing. Data from mobile phones indicate something like a 30% decrease in movements. Which has had economic impact, certainly.

 

So actually what they have opted for is a middle path between the more stringent lockdowns elsewhere and life as usual.

 

The Swedes are banking on a number of country-specific  factors:  (1) few multigenerational households, common for people to live alone; (2)  excellent health care system with  capacity to spare and (3) that people will voluntarily enact preventive measures and social distancing, removing the need for forced lockdowns.

 

So far these assumptions have held true and coupled with a willingness to accept a greater number of deaths, have made it a feasible approach. Whether or not it is an acceptable one depends on how one feels about the additional deaths, but from a public health point of few, it is feasible. It would not have been in many other countries.

 

Had the number of cases threatened at any point to overwhelm health system capacity -- as it did in a number of places - I am sure the Swedes would have escalated measures accordingly.

 

As for this idea of "quarantining the vulnerable people and letting everyone else live normally",  no country has found a way to do this. Remember that the "vulnerable" amount to  a fourth of the population or more in many countries.

 

They are no where near herd immunity, that takes more than 60% coverage (more for some illnesses) so the story is far from over in Sweden or for that matter anywhere else.

[yuyiinthesky]

1 hour ago, johnnybangkok said:

Another thread filled with the usual shouters and bullies pushing their  delusions of world control and ignorance.

 

Sweden has modified its public health strategy twice since it realized that its initial strategy  was not working. The continued praising  of a strategy no longer used is laughable. Sweden has since implemented  multiple measures seen in other countries;

- high schools and universities are closed

- gatherings of more than 50 people are legally banned, and the public has voluntarily avoided large gatherings of  10 or more

- many businesses introduced work at home policies

- long term care facilities have restrictions on access

- public movement in the at risk high population density cities has fallen significantly with fewer commuters and fewer people on the streets.

 

Yes, Sweden has not implemented a full lock down

You make a lot of (malicious?) imputations.

The points you are listing above are not unknown, and as far as I can see not rejected or excluded by the ones being sympathetic to Sweden's model. Not at all.

I did not see anyone arguing against them. Personally I think that closing high schools and universities goes too far, but that is not an issue for me.

"gatherings of more than 50 people are legally banned, and the public has voluntarily avoided large gatherings of  10 or more" - nothing too wrong with that! in my humble opionion there should be a difference between indoors and outdoors though, it is known by now that infections spread in closed rooms with bad ventilation.

"many businesses introduced work at home policies" - nothing wrong with that, not at all. I enjoy working from home.

 

"long term care facilities have restrictions on access" - the elderly and vulnerable should be protected, I think nobody is against that and that Sweden improved that point was welcomed by everybody. Please do not impute otherwise.

"public movement in the at risk high population density cities has fallen significantly with fewer commuters and fewer people on the streets." - that was not an ordered restriction, but voluntary, and nothing wrong with that.

"Yes, Sweden has not implemented a full lock down" - now here we come to the important point. That is what I see as remarkable, good, and the model for other countries.

• Businesses can stay open.
• You can meet your friends in a cafe.
• No curfew.
• No lockdown of cities with checkpoints and police controls, examining if you have a right to move your bottom from place A to place B. If you think you should travel, then it is respected.
• No home arrest. 
• You can go to the beach.
• You can go to the gym.
• etc.

I understand the panic that happened in most countries that locked down, scared that they don't survive the next election if they don't. It started with good intentions, based on flawed models though, but good intentions.

I unterstand also (and prefer) Sweden's model. Also based on good intentions. 

So please stop these allegations of new world order etc, this is not the point, not at all. 

I find it disgusting to look at the death stats of the countries hoping that the countries with the model I don't like have more deaths than the countries with the models I like.

I wish best success to all of them. 

Edited May 17, 2020 by yuyiinthesky

[marqus12]

1 million people die each year from HIV
Why are 'women selling love' not in permanent lock down?
After all, all of them can be assumed to be super spreaders...

[UbonThani]

1 minute ago, chessman said:

I think you're a lost cause with this. You either lack the cognitive ability to understand a simple argument or just refuse to believe what has been plainly put in front of your face.

 

Good luck though, maybe some people will be interested in you shouting FLU

I posted the facts

You are posting insults

 

[Sheryl]

The 2 person flame/bicker fest is officially over and posts from both sides have been removed.

[yuyiinthesky]

6 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

They are no where near herd immunity, that takes more than 60% coverage (more for some illnesses) so the story is far from over in Sweden or for that matter anywhere else.

Yes, 50-70% was the number discussed for herd immunity.

However it emerges that it is probably much lower than that, due to some effects not seen or known earlier, such as this one:
 

 

[Boomer6969]

Dunno about dumb or blind but the most likely answer is here. Seems they didn't have much choice.

[473geo]

8 minutes ago, marqus12 said:

1 million people die each year from HIV
Why are 'women selling love' not in permanent lock down?
After all, all of them can be assumed to be super spreaders...

I think a little more intimacy is required to contract HIV, no need for lock down personal social distancing will suffice