Recovery in global stock markets expected to lift the baht

[webfact]

Recovery in global stock markets expected to lift the baht

By THE NATION

 

 

The baht opened at 31.84 to the US dollar on Thursday (May 21) morning, weakening from Wednesday’s close at Bt31.82.

 

The Thai currency is expected to move at between 31.75 and 32.95, SCB Securities senior market strategist Jitipol Puksamatanan said.

 

On Wednesday night, the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 rose by 1.67 per cent and 1.37 per cent, respectively, while the Ten-Year Treasury yields of US and Germany increased to 0.67 per cent and minus 0.47 per cent respectively.

 

In the financial markets, the dollar weakened by 0.5 per cent, compared to the other main currencies. The strategist believed that the weakening was caused by the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that expressed concerns about a second wave of Covid-19 in US.

 

In Thailand, the Monetary Policy Committee reduced the key policy rate by 0.25 percentage point to 0.50 per cent. Thai bond yields decreased by 2 to 4 basis points, while stocks and bonds were sold as usual.

 

The baht would be supported by a recovery of the global stock markets this month or the next, the analyst said.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30388238

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-05-21

 

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[madmitch]

14 minutes ago, webfact said:

The baht opened at 31.84 to the US dollar on Thursday (May 21) morning, weakening from Wednesday’s close at Bt31.82.

 

The Thai currency is expected to move at between 31.75 and 32.95, SCB Securities senior market strategist Jitipol Puksamatanan said.

I read this as a probable weakening, not a strengthening. Am I missing something?

[smedly]

good news

 

a strengthening baht will work wonders for exports and tourism

 

Government is doing an exceptional job in the continued destruction of Thailand

[NCC1701A]

Asteroid to destroy all life on Earth, Baht soars.

[anterian]

The Thai Baht is like God, both move in a mysterious way

[Matzzon]

Not have to write more about this currency no more. Everything that happens on the planet, the moon and in the solar system as well as in the whole galaxy and universe makes the baht stronger.

[nausea]

Yeah, more good news. I'm just overjoyed.

Edited May 21, 2020 by nausea

[Walker88]

I think I'll bet against this longer term.

 

So far CV-19 has killed 325K humans. On the death bed, however, not yet but soon to be pronounced dead is the term "globalization".

 

Countries have been taught a few important lessons, and over time they will act.  One is that maximizing domestic employment is useful. The other is the realization that supply chains can be disrupted easily, so better they are kept close to home.

 

FDI is going to fade away. Countries whose economic model is built on cheap labor and product exports are going to suffer.

 

Factories will be closed. As factories age, they will not be updated or refurbished, but rather the foreign owner will move the plant back home. Those who innovate will try to capture more of the gains, rather than transfer technology and have it co-opted or stolen. This will be a sea change from the last 30 years of corporate and mercantile behavior.

 

Thailand built its economy on a number of things, all of which are now under threat from the fallout of CV-19. Cheap labor has less value than it did even 6 months ago. Components sourced far from final assembly or far from final consumer markets now look unwise when supply lines can be cut so easily. Tourism is rather dead, too.

 

A hundred years ago Henry Ford paid decent wages because "that creates customers for my cars". That thought will be embraced again, as well as "XXX Country First !"  Already we see South Korean exports fell 24% in April. Several countries have tabled the idea of tax incentives to 'bring business back home'. This will resonate will voters, even if it makes David Ricardo roll over in his grave, and become a rallying cry for populist politicians, of which the world now has many.

 

Some currencies already have all good news priced in, while others have lots of bad news priced in. Those with good news priced in likely will reverse their trend, and vice versa. It may take some time to materialize, but over the next year or two I bet it will.

[Grumpy one]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

good news

 

a strengthening baht will work wonders for exports and tourism

 

Government is doing an exceptional job in the continued destruction of Thailand

Its not doing much for my dream of becoming a multi millionaire either.

Guess I will have to move to Laos to reach my goal

[Pib]

1 hour ago, NCC1701A said:

Asteroid to destroy all life on Earth, Baht soars.

Update:  Asteroid destroyed by Thai rocket, but a manual launch required.

 

[Oldie]

In the meantime it seems that the stock markets seem to be the most important thing. Just print money without end so that some people can make their money there. This is the new capitalism. 

[2 is 1]

Show me reason why bth should be strong? To who is good! Investors who invest whit $ base?

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/tha/

2017 situation! Maybe i dont know , this show to me Kingdom is much better if BTH is weak ! Not strong against $ or €.

If weak BTH maybe you get tourist back someday! And maybe some farang want invest here also.

[Baerboxer]

4 hours ago, smedly said:

good news

 

a strengthening baht will work wonders for exports and tourism

 

Government is doing an exceptional job in the continued destruction of Thailand

 

You are demonstrating your in-depth deep knowledge of how the International Forex markets work.

 

 

[Baerboxer]

2 hours ago, 2 is 1 said:

Show me reason why bth should be strong? To who is good! Investors who invest whit $ base?

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/tha/

2017 situation! Maybe i dont know , this show to me Kingdom is much better if BTH is weak ! Not strong against $ or €.

If weak BTH maybe you get tourist back someday! And maybe some farang want invest here also.

 

You should read the reports and comments from the financial sector, traders, banks etc. 

 

Also consider how well prominent other top economies are doing at the moment.

[rasmus5150]

2 hours ago, 2 is 1 said:

If weak BTH maybe you get tourist back someday! And maybe some farang want invest here also.

That train has already left the platform.

The only future investors in Thailand will be ......... (drum roll)............ Chinese

[Yankeesvsredsox]

How can people with pensions feel at ease when they are using the monthly deposits to fund their Thai retirement responsibilities!

[timendres]

13 minutes ago, Yankeesvsredsox said:

How can people with pensions feel at ease when they are using the monthly deposits to fund their Thai retirement responsibilities!

They cannot, and exchange rates should have always been a part of their planning.

[Isaan sailor]

I have come to the conclusion they like an overvalued Baht.  The world reels from Wuhan virus recession—and the Baht keeps rising.  This hurts tourism, exports and expats—so don’t they matter?

Well, I know expats don’t matter...

[Almer]

7 hours ago, madmitch said:

I read this as a probable weakening, not a strengthening. Am I missing something?

Yep your missing the spin

[Almer]

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

I have come to the conclusion they like an overvalued Baht.  The world reels from Wuhan virus recession—and the Baht keeps rising.  This hurts tourism, exports and expats—so don’t they matter?

Well, I know expats don’t matter...

I get what you say but of course if you hurt expats you again hurt the economy but it is small fry to the people who control control control things

[Adelphi]

Thailand unlike a lot of western countries (including my own) does not have a huge and growing government debt.  It has not undertaken massive quantitative easing which undermines the value of currencies.   It leaned from its last crisis and does not borrow overly in foreign currencies.  It has very substantial foreign currency reserves to call on.  In addition, it is not committed to funding a large and growing welfare state.   

 

Perhaps some of the above might just explain why the Baht has been appreciating.  

[digger70]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

Recovery in global stock markets expected to lift the baht

Whatever the THB is doing since 2012 is a mystery and it doesn't work in our Favour.

[Adelphi]

3 hours ago, Adelphi said:

 

 

Edited May 21, 2020 by Adelphi

[rickudon]

Recovery in Global stock markets? With the coming global recession, more likely a dead cat bounce.